Let’s undergo ten statistical factors I’ll comply with subsequent season — and so do you have to. I’ll introduce you to those metrics in case you’re unfamiliar with them and clarify why they’ll matter. On the backside, you’ll discover hyperlinks to trace them your self all through the season. With out additional ado, let’s dive in!
Offensive rebounding %
Final season, the Celtics had a 24.9% offensive rebound charge, rating twelfth out of 30 groups. Fairly common, proper? Nonetheless, there’s extra to this stat. When Kristaps Porzingis was out, the offensive rebound charge jumped to 30.6%, which might’ve made the Celtics the very best offensive rebounding crew within the league — higher than the Knicks, who’ve constructed a big a part of their offense round this technique.
This technique has each offensive and defensive penalties. It creates extra possessions, giving the Celtics an opportunity to be much more dominant offensively. Nonetheless, being aggressive on the offensive glass additionally presents potential points.
The larger risk is that this might create extra transition alternatives for opponents. Final season, the Celtics had been the very best transition protection crew. In the event that they regulate their offensive rebounding method, that would change.
Rim safety metrics
The Celtics’ rim safety was elite final season, confirmed by three key indicators: Defensive Rim Frequency, Defensive Rim Accuracy, and Defensive FT Price. These metrics encapsulate how effectively a crew protects the rim. The Celtics ranked third in Defensive Rim Frequency, fifth in Defensive Rim Accuracy, and first in Defensive FT Price.
Their elite efficiency was closely influenced by Kristaps Porzingis, who acted as a roamer within the paint, taking part in deep drop protection whereas Jrue, Derrick, Jayson, and Jaylen navigated screens. With Kristaps sidelined for months, will the Celtics preserve these elite rim safety numbers?
Jayson Tatum’s drives per recreation
We’ve lined this in a earlier article, however Jayson Tatum’s driving recreation opened up so many nice issues for the Celtics in the course of the NBA Finals. Nonetheless, his drives per recreation within the common season had been comparatively low. Final season, his drive quantity was just like Stephen Curry’s. No offense to the best shooter of all time, however Tatum’s drives must be extra frequent.
Why? As a result of he’s actually good at it! His effectivity on drives is elite, and his capacity to get to the free-throw line is spectacular. He’s additionally developed the flexibility to drive and kick in varied conditions, forcing defenses to make errors. Subsequently, Tatum’s drives per recreation might be on the high of my checklist subsequent season.
Jaylen Brown’s FTr+ and TS+
Let’s handle considered one of Jaylen Brown’s puzzling weaknesses: his capacity to get to the free-throw line. Final yr, his FTr+ was under 100, that means he generates fewer free throws than the typical NBA participant — a big difficulty. Free throws are probably the most precious makes an attempt in basketball, and as an All-NBA participant with so many bodily benefits, Brown ought to get to the road extra usually than common. Nonetheless, this hasn’t been the case for 2 straight seasons, immediately impacting his general scoring effectivity.
An ideal indicator of scoring effectivity is TS+. Like FTr+, a rating of 100 is league common, whereas 110 means you’re 10% above common. Over the previous two seasons, Brown has been at 100 — proper on the common.
Now, I’m not saying Brown is a mean participant. He creates on excessive quantity, largely self-generated photographs. However to grow to be a extra environment friendly offensive engine, he must discover a approach to attract extra fouls and get to the road.
Derrick White’s USG% and True Taking pictures %
As Oliver Fox mentioned, Derrick White is ideal. With an 18.6% utilization charge and 61.1% true taking pictures proportion, he’s one of the vital environment friendly guards within the league. But, he does it at a mean quantity. At 30, White is at a crossroads. Will he stay one of many league’s finest function gamers, or will he tackle extra?
There are indicators he might tackle a much bigger function. His pull-up numbers have elevated, alongside together with his driving. His self-creation has improved whereas sustaining excessive effectivity. Can he take the subsequent step and have a much bigger quantity?
Jrue Vacation’s catch-and-shoot 3-point makes an attempt
As talked about in my earlier article, Jrue Vacation has transitioned from pull-up threes to catch-and-shoot threes. A number of questions linger round this evolution. Was it momentary? Can he grow to be a good greater catch-and-shoot risk? What degree of effectivity can he attain with these photographs?
Sam Hauser’s AST:Usg
Should you’re unfamiliar with AST:Usg, it measures a participant’s share of creation for others. Sam Hauser has been low on this metric all through his profession, primarily serving as a finisher with out a lot passing accountability.
Nonetheless, if he desires to extend his minutes, including a layer of playmaking would possibly assist. Joe Mazzulla values gamers who can each area the ground but in addition play inside it. If Hauser can enhance his passing, he may benefit from the very spacing he creates — a basketball virtuous circle.
Payton Pritchard’s Rim Frequency and Effectivity
Final yr, Payton Pritchard made headlines with half-court photographs. What impressed me extra, although, was his enchancment on the rim. With 74% rim effectivity, Pritchard was the second best level guard on the rim, behind solely Luka Doncic. After all, the amount isn’t the identical, but when Pritchard can preserve this effectivity with a better quantity, it might open up quite a bit for him and the Celtics bench.
Xavier Tillman’s STL% and BLK%
When Brad Stevens traded for Xavier Tillman, the previous Grizzly was one of many few NBA gamers with a steal charge and block charge above 2.5%. The Celtics weren’t robust in these areas final season — not attributable to lack of expertise, however attributable to a conservative, drop-coverage method. With Porzingis out, might Tillman’s capacity to generate turnovers and block photographs assist increase the Celtics’ transition recreation?
Al Horford’s minutes
Final however not least: Uncle Al’s minutes. Final season, when the Celtics wanted him most, Horford delivered on the most important stage—due to taking part in simply 26 minutes per recreation in the course of the common season, permitting him to play massive minutes when it mattered. With Kristaps Porzingis out, how a lot will the Celtics have the ability to defend Horford’s outdated however robust legs?
Under are hyperlinks the place you’ll be able to monitor the information talked about, season-long: