It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Level Conversion post-game column, which options two statements, two questions and two predictions primarily based on the most recent Bucs sport. Tampa Bay misplaced its fourth straight sport, 23-20 towards San Francisco on a last-second area aim. The Bucs have now misplaced 5 of their final six and are 1-5 after a 3-1 begin to the season.
Can the 4-6 Bucs get wholesome and regroup after the bye week to make a late-season playoff push? Scott Reynolds shares his perception about Tampa Bay’s probabilities in 2-Level Conversion.
2 BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. Bucs Protection Lacks Killer Intuition
In three of Tampa Bay’s final 5 losses, the Bucs protection has been on the sphere needing to get a sack, a cease, pressure a punt or a get a takeaway. As an alternative, the Bucs protection has surrendered game-winning touchdowns on the preliminary drives in additional time losses at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis, and Todd Bowles’ unit allowed a game-winning area aim drive with lower than a minute left in a 23-20 loss to San Francisco.
Bucs CB Josh Hayes and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
The killer intuition that the Bucs protection briefly confirmed this season in a 20-16 win at Detroit has disappeared for some purpose. And if the crew has any hope of constructing a playoff run after the bye week, Todd Bowles’ troops might want to discover it.
“The ultimate drive we’re simply not ending,” Bucs exterior linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka mentioned. “We’re simply enjoying three-and-a-half quarters. We’ve obtained to complete conditions. It’s horrible. It hurts loads. You battle, you claw, you scratch and also you come up brief, however that’s the NFL. Numerous one-possession video games and it finally comes all the way down to you getting off the sphere on the finish of the sport. Profitable and dropping is situational soccer, it’s not what we’re excelling at proper now.”
It’s not simply the truth that the Tampa Bay protection has surrendered 550 yards (at Atlanta), 508 yards (versus Baltimore), 394 yards (versus Atlanta), 384 yards (at Kansas Metropolis) and 413 yards (versus San Francisco) within the final 5 defeats. Or that the Bucs protection has allowed 36, 41, 31, 30 and 23 factors in these final 5 losses. It’s the truth that Todd Bowles’ troops can’t pressure stops after they completely have to.
Tampa Bay solely pressured one punt on Sunday, and during the last 5 losses, the protection has solely pressured a median of two.2 punts per sport. In the course of the crew’s four-game dropping streak, the Bucs protection has solely pressured two takeaways – Sunday’s fumble restoration versus the 49ers got here on particular groups – whereas turning over the ball 5 instances.
Bucs DT Vita Vea and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Remember that 49ers kicker Jake Moody missed three area targets. Add 9 potential factors to San Francisco’s precise level complete and the 49ers ought to have had 32 factors towards Tampa Bay’s protection, which might’ve been par for the course, because the Bucs had beforehand allowed 30 factors or extra in 4 straight losses towards the Falcons (twice), the Ravens and the Chiefs.
The Bucs have performed arduous on protection and never given up. However enjoying arduous hasn’t been sufficient to get the job performed throughout one other 1-5 stretch following a 3-1 begin for the second 12 months in a row, in line with linebacker Lavonte David.
“We performed our tails off – by no means take that away from us, we’ll all the time play arduous,” David mentioned. “We’ve obtained that half down, however we simply must execute higher, play sensible soccer, and play nasty soccer, play sensible, aggressive soccer [and] make performs. We’re not making sufficient performs – all people, myself included – we’re not making sufficient performs. That’s all it comes all the way down to. We have now to make performs when the time comes all the way down to it, and for us to be an awesome protection, we’ve to do this. That’s the place we’re digging ourselves in a gap at – we’ve to make performs.”
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned that the protection has to play smarter soccer on the finish of video games.
“[We] have to complete ballgames,” Bowles mentioned. “[When] guys get an opportunity to play, they’ve to return in, play and execute. We will’t play arduous after which not play sensible on the finish. We have now to play smarter soccer. There’s nothing mistaken with how arduous we’re enjoying and the way robust we’re enjoying, however we’ve to complete video games. We have now to discover a technique to end ballgames. [We’re] making too many errors on the finish.”
But it’s not nearly enjoying sensible and enjoying arduous. Ending video games requires a sure do-or-die mentality. Getting off the sphere as a substitute of giving up game-winning scores must be non-negotiable.
Whether or not it’s Bowles’ penchant for enjoying comfortable zone protection on the finish of some video games that has sadly translated right into a comfortable mentality by the gamers or the Bucs simply not having their playmakers present up, it’s a mindset that the Bucs simply don’t have proper now.
“Simply look ourselves within the mirror, and ask your self what sort of participant you wish to be,” David mentioned. “This crew wants these – we’d like elite gamers on the finish of the day. We want gamers who make performs and do it persistently and that’s what we’re not doing, particularly on the defensive facet of the ball. Whoever’s on the market, we’re not making sufficient performs, and we’ve to be higher at that.
Bucs ILB Lavonte David and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
“It feels shitty. It’s all the time in our arms. As a defensive captain of this soccer crew, I’m on the market, I’m not doing sufficient. All people will not be doing sufficient, so no matter it’s, we’ve to dig deep and discover it. No matter it’s, we’ve to repair it ASAP.”
The Bucs gained’t win one other sport this season till the protection dramatically improves and learns not solely how one can end – however how one can end off their opponents by growing a killer intuition. However that’s going to take all 11 Tampa Bay defenders on the sphere adopting an “I’ll make the play” mindset.
“We have now to have that stage of focus and depth going into that final drive to finally win the sport,” Tryon-Shoyinka mentioned. “We have now to have numerous grit in our thoughts and ending and enjoying project soccer. … We have now to indicate our ass when we’ve that chance.”
STATEMENT 2. Bucs WR Depth Was Not What The Workforce Hoped It Was
Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s vast receiving corps was the envy of the league when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had been wholesome. No different receiving duo within the NFL has had a pair of receivers each have 1,000-yard seasons in every of the final three years like Evans and Godwin have performed in Tampa Bay. With Evans and Godwin drawing the most effective defensive backs every week, it has allowed the crew’s revolving door at WR3 – whether or not it’s been Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer or Sterling Shepard – to play a task versus a lesser cornerback in protection.
However with out Evans and Godwin, the shortage of proficient depth on the Bucs’ roster has been uncovered. Neither the return of Rakim Jarrett nor the elevation of observe squad receivers Ryan Miller and Marquez Callaway have performed a lot to select up the slack as Evans and Godwin have missed the final three video games.
The crew had excessive expectations for McMillan, a third-round decide, however he missed the Chiefs sport as a consequence of a sore hamstring, feeling like he couldn’t play on it after warm-ups prior the beginning of the Monday Night time Soccer sport. Then McMillan missed two practices through the week and was restricted on Friday. Regardless of retaining him off the inactive checklist on Sunday in case he felt like he might play towards the 49ers, McMillan apparently determined he couldn’t go.
But it’s not simply McMillan, who has been a giant disappointment this 12 months. It’s additionally been Shepard, a 30-year previous veteran, and Palmer, who was WR3 final 12 months.
With video games towards the Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers within the books, right here is the cumulative receiving complete for the Bucs receivers over the previous three weeks.
WR Rakim Jarrett – 117 snaps, 6 catches for 77 yards (12.8 avg.)WR Sterling Shepard – 122 snaps, 8 catches for 73 yards (9.1 avg.)WR Trey Palmer – 93 snaps, 4 catches for 62 yards (15.5 avg.)WR Jalen McMillan – 59 snaps, 4 catches for 35 yards (8.8 avg.)WR Ryan Miller – 116 snaps, 5 catches for 31 yards (6.1 avg.), TDWR Maquez Callaway – 5 snaps, no catches
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Over the previous three video games, the Bucs vast receivers have collectively caught 27 passes for 278 yards and one landing. That’s a median of 9 receptions for 92.6 yards per sport from all the vast receiving corps.
To say that the Bucs can’t wait to get Evans again after the bye week is a big understatement.
Numerous these younger receivers are merely blowing their alternative to take advantage of the additional reps they’ve acquired within the absence of Godwin, Evans and even McMillan, who has missed the final two video games. With Evans turning 32 subsequent August and coming into a contract 12 months, and Godwin hitting free company in March at age 29, the Bucs have overestimated their reserve expertise on the receiver place and might want to proceed to make use of draft capital on receivers to present Mayfield higher weapons in 2025.
And Tampa Bay must hope that McMillan is simply having a tough rookie 12 months and that he’s not a bust.
2 PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1. Will The Bucs Fireplace Todd Bowles Throughout The Bye Week?
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
I’m not asking – or answering – this query about Todd Bowles’ job safety simply to place it on the market for public dialogue. This subject is already on the market for dialogue amongst Bucs followers. We see it within the feedback on our Pewter Report X and Fb social media channels and in our Pewter Report Podcast chatroom as nicely.
The Glazers have by no means fired a head coach through the season earlier than. Not even Raheem Morris was fired within the midst of the 2011 season when his crew was in free-fall after a 4-1 begin, dropping the ultimate 11 video games which culminated in a 4-12 file. So I don’t count on the Glazers to take action now, particularly with the Bucs nonetheless within the operating for a playoff spot with a 4-6 file and just one opponent – the 6-3 Chargers – with a successful file on the schedule after the bye week.
Given the truth that Bowles helped this crew win a Tremendous Bowl in 2020, and gained back-to-back NFC South titles plus a house playoff win, that offers him the advantage of the doubt to let this season play out. Particularly since Bowles proved that he might dig the crew out of a 4-7 gap final 12 months and nonetheless win the division in Week 18.
I do know most Bucs followers assume that offensive coordinator Liam Coen could be in line to exchange Bowles in case the Glazers do hearth him and wish to transfer in a special course after the season. However saddling Coen with an interim head teaching job in-season below this state of affairs whereas juggling game-planning for an injured offense, and selling Larry Foote to defensive play-caller isn’t the reply.
It wouldn’t be honest for Coen to be an interim head coach this 12 months and tackle extra losses this season after which take over in a full capability subsequent 12 months. Coen – or any coach in his place – ought to be given the complete advantage of a honeymoon interval and the possibility to select his personal defensive workers earlier than getting any wins or losses on his file.
We’ll see how this season performs out. Sure, Bowles is on the recent seat. Sure, the group likes what it has seen from Coen’s offense to date. No, I don’t count on a head teaching change at this juncture through the bye week.
QUESTION 2. Is There Hope On The Horizon In Tampa Bay?
Bucs assistant GM John Spytek and GM Jason Licht – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Sure, not solely are there extra wins available this season, but in addition in years to return. The Bucs have been ravaged by a loopy quantity of accidents this 12 months, which has instantly led to some losses. However whether or not Tampa Bay makes the playoffs in 2024 or not, the longer term does look brilliant for the crew shifting ahead.
Tampa Bay’s largest margin of defeat truly got here in a 26-7 loss to Denver in Week 3. In any other case the Bucs have misplaced additional time video games at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis, in addition to a 10-point loss to the Ravens, a five-point loss to the Falcons and a three-point loss to the 49ers. The collective file of the groups the Bucs have misplaced to is 32-16.
Throw in the truth that the Bucs have additionally crushed the 8-1 Lions, the 7-2 Eagles and the 7-3 Commanders earlier within the season when the crew was more healthy and that’s proof that Tampa Bay has sufficient expertise to win. The crew simply must get higher teaching on protection and higher sport administration from the pinnacle coach to succeed in its full potential.
So long as the freakish accidents are contained to the 2024 season, there’s no purpose why the Bucs can’t be sturdy contenders for the NFC South title once more in 2025, particularly with the proper strikes in free company and one other good draft.
2 BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Received’t Make The Playoffs – Due To Accidents
Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
For no matter purpose, the Bucs had been one of many healthiest groups within the league final 12 months. On offense for instance, each Bucs starter starter performed all 19 video games, together with the 2 postseason video games, aside from left guard Matt Feiler. That’s an unimaginable rarity that actually benefited Tampa Bay en path to 9 wins and a 3rd straight NFC South division title. However since Week 1 when the crew misplaced proper sort out Luke Goedeke and All-Professional free security Antoine Winfield Jr. for 4 video games as a consequence of a concussion and a foot harm, respectively, the Bucs have had a weekly onslaught of accidents.
Since Week 2, Tampa Bay has seen at the very least two main starters miss a sport as a consequence of harm – and typically that quantity has swelled as excessive as three or 4. On Sunday towards the 49ers for instance, the Bucs had been with out beginning vast receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and beginning secondary members Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith. Then the crew misplaced left sort out Tristan Wirfs to a knee harm versus San Francisco – an MCL sprain, which can value him about 4 weeks – and star cornerback Zyon McCollum needed to depart the sport within the fourth quarter as a consequence of tweaking his hamstring.
So even when the crew has a good stretch of video games developing after they bye towards a slew of groups with dropping data, will the Bucs even have sufficient wholesome stars out there to capitalize? The Bucs have but to seek out an insect repellent for the harm bug that simply retains biting this crew on a weekly foundation. I’ve little doubt that if the Bucs had been at full energy – or nearer to it – that Tampa Bay’s file can be higher than it’s proper now.
And extra importantly, there can be sufficient wins to make the postseason – whilst a Wild Card. Except the accidents in Tampa Bay simply all of the sudden cease, the trail to the postseason will likely be a really perilous one for the Buccaneers.
PREDICTION 2. Bucs Will Not Have A 1,000-Yard Rusher Or Receiver This Yr
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: USA At this time
The final time the Bucs didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver in any season was again in 2011. Operating again LeGarrett Blount rushed for 781 yards and vast receiver Mike Williams had 771 yards receiving as Tampa Bay went 4-12. The distinction was that the Bucs offense ranked nineteenth within the league, averaging 17.9 yards per sport.
This 12 months’s Bucs crew might not have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver, however Liam Coen’s offense is averaging 361.5 yards per sport, which ranks eighth within the league, through the use of extra of an ensemble forged – primarily as a consequence of accidents to the crew’s major weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With 576 yards receiving, Godwin was actually on tempo to hit 1,000 yards receiving earlier than his season-ending ankle harm.
Evans has 335 yards and has averaged 48 yards per sport previous to a hamstring harm that value him the final three video games. He would want to common 95 yards per sport over the subsequent seven video games to hit 1,000 yards. However Evans’ profession common is simply 74.6 yards per sport over his 10 and a half 12 months profession in Tampa Bay. When Evans returns to motion, he’ll even be a marked man and may draw double groups, which can make it even more durable to common 95 yards per sport.
The Bucs are operating the ball higher than they’ve in latest reminiscence, however it’s been by committee. Bucky Irving leads Tampa Bay with 492 yards, averaging 49.2 yards per sport. He’s on tempo to hit 836 yards. Irving hasn’t even had a 100-yard sport this season. In actual fact, the Bucs have solely had one rusher hit 100 yards in a sport and that was Sean Tucker, who had 136 yards speeding and a landing at New Orleans in Week 6.
