It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Level Conversion post-game column, which options two statements, two questions and two predictions based mostly on the newest Bucs recreation. Tampa Bay misplaced an extra time heartbreaker in primetime in Atlanta, 36-30.
The Bucs protection couldn’t cease Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense all evening, and Tampa Bay’s offense sputtered within the second half and squandered a lead within the remaining moments by failing to expire the clock. Now the workforce is 3-2 heading into subsequent week’s recreation at New Orleans.
2 BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. Right here’s Why The Bucs Will Nonetheless Win The NFC South
That was a brutal loss on Thursday Night time Soccer – not only for the Bucs, but additionally for his or her followers.
The Tampa Bay gamers have been steamed after blowing a fourth quarter lead – on either side of the ball – and Bucs followers have been indignant and distraught over dropping to a division rival that was picked by nationwide pundits and the sportsbooks in Las Vegas to win the NFC South.
Not so quick.
Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge – Picture by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
The Falcons didn’t with the division on Thursday evening. There’s nonetheless loads of soccer to be performed this season for the 3-2 Bucs.
The NFC South remains to be up for grabs, and in reality, the Bucs ought to nonetheless be the favorites to win it in my thoughts. Right here’s why.
Tampa Bay had a number of alternatives to maneuver to 4-1 with a win in Atlanta earlier than dropping 36-30 in extra time on a 46-yard catch-and-run by Falcons receiver KhaDarel Hodge. That put Kirk Cousins over 500 yards (509 yards) and made him a shoo-in for NFC Offensive Participant of the Week together with his fourth landing of the sport.
The Falcons didn’t beat the Bucs. The Bucs beat the Bucs on the finish by not making the performs obligatory to hold on to a fourth quarter lead.
Thursday evening’s recreation was paying homage to final 12 months’s horrific 39-37 loss at Houston the place rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud carved up Bowles’ coverages for 470 yards, which set an NFL rookie report, and 5 touchdowns. And what occurred on the finish of the season?
The Bucs nonetheless received the NFC South in Week 18 – even rebounding from a dreadful 4-7 report on the finish of the November.
Oh, the Falcons are higher this 12 months, proper? Positive, they’ll possible end higher than the 7-10 report they’ve posted in every of the final three years. However will they get to 10 wins?
Each Atlanta and Tampa Bay have powerful schedules forward, however the Falcons nonetheless should play the undefeated Vikings, the Commanders, Ravens, Cowboys, plus two extra video games towards the Saints and Bucs. Can they win all of these video games and keep away from getting tripped up by the likes of the Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins on the highway?
Bucs WR Sterling Shepard – Picture by: USA Right this moment
The important thing for Tampa Bay profitable the division is to separate with the Falcons, which implies profitable the creamsicle recreation at residence in a number of weeks, sweeping the Panthers once more and at the least splitting the 2 video games with the Saints – beginning subsequent week in New Orleans. The Bucs did simply that final 12 months and have been in a position to win the division with a 9-8 report. The guess right here is that the NFC South champion might want to attain 10 wins this season – and it ought to be Tampa Bay, which already has three NFC wins within the bag.
Aside from middle Drew Dalman and center linebacker Troy Andersen, the Falcons have been practically at full energy on Thursday evening. The Bucs? Not a lot.
Tampa Bay was with out its greatest defender in Antoine Winfield Jr., its greatest pass-rushing defensive sort out in Calijah Kancey, its beginning proper sort out in Luke Goedeke, its rising inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis (who is much better in protection than Okay.J. Britt is), in addition to extensive receivers No. 3 and No. 4 on the depth chart in Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. All however Dennis ought to return sooner relatively than later, so assistance is on the way in which.
On a workforce that isn’t tackling effectively proper now, Winfield Jr. is well the very best tackler, and his eventual return will definitely be welcomed. Not solely will Winfield present Bowles with a positive tackler who will forestall massive third-down conversions and touchdowns, but additionally a key chess piece that may be moved across the discipline to create sacks, interceptions and pressure fumbles – all issues the Bucs might use proper now on protection. Bowles wants a difference-maker, and that’s precisely what Winfield is when wholesome.
Josh Queipo supplied some glorious evaluation in a Pewter Report column titled “Bucs Have A BIG Center Of The Discipline Downside On Protection” that’s value studying and on the right track. Tampa Bay’s comfortable zone protection was exploited in the midst of the sector repeatedly by Cousins on Thursday evening. Bowles must get this sorted out, because the NFL is a copycat league and Saints quarterback Derek Carr, the Bucs’ subsequent opponent, is taking notes for positive.
The guess right here is that Tampa Bay deploys a dime defensive look with six defensive backs, together with three safeties with both Christian Izien or Kaevon Merriweather platooning with inside linebacker Okay.J. Britt, who’s an actual legal responsibility in cross protection. Or possibly it’s seeing if fellow linebacker J.J. Russell may be an improve in protection over Britt. I belief that Bowles will resolve this puzzle, nevertheless it was extremely laborious to take action on a really quick week this time round.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA Right this moment
Whereas everybody factors to the protection because the wrongdoer for Thursday’s loss in Atlanta, the offense was simply as dangerous within the second half, and performed a contributing function within the defeat. After scoring 24 factors by halftime, the Bucs managed simply two discipline objectives within the second half. Baker Mayfield had 131 yards and three touchdowns within the first half, however had simply 49 passing yards within the second. Mike Evans, who had 4 catches for 49 yards and a pair of scores within the first half, was held to only one reception for 13 yards within the second half.
Nonetheless, we’ve seen this Liam Coen offense generate 30 factors or extra in three out of 5 video games to start out the season, and that’s encouraging for a rookie offensive coordinator. He’s confirmed to be a greater play-caller than Dave Canales was at this juncture final 12 months, and Coen remains to be studying on the job. He’ll get higher because the season progresses.
Coen was taught a painful lesson about tips on how to shut out a recreation after the offense failed to choose up a primary down or transfer into discipline purpose place on the ultimate drive after Lavonte David’s interception that ought to’ve sealed the win. I get the concept to attempt to run the ball or use display screen passes to attempt to choose up the primary all the way down to make the Falcons burn their timeouts. It’s sound in idea.
However the Bucs paid $100 million to Mayfield this offseason, and Coen’s personal mantra is “gamers over performs.” Mayfield, Evans and Chris Godwin are higher gamers than Rachaad White or Bucky Irving. And sure, the missed facemask name on Irving was enormous.
Merely put, Mayfield must have the ball in his fingers to win out video games, particularly when the Falcons switched to a 6-1 entrance to attempt to cease the working recreation on that remaining drive. You don’t see Andy Reid taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ fingers on the ultimate drive. Coen can’t do the identical factor with Mayfield transferring ahead.
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Picture by: USA Right this moment
Bucs left sort out Tristan Wirfs was justifiably ticked off that the offense couldn’t run the clock out and win the sport with 1:44 remaining.
“It was a back-and-forth recreation,” Wirfs mentioned. “We had each alternative to shut it out and we didn’t. It sucks. We’ve acquired three days to let it steep. It ought to harm. It ought to suck. We’ll see them in a pair weeks. We’ve acquired the Saints subsequent week after which they’re going to Tampa couple weeks after that. You already know you’ve acquired to maneuver on.
“It sucks, you realize? I’m pissed. I’m not glad about it as a result of it was proper there. They gave it to us. They mentioned – you realize they threw the Lavonte choose – they mentioned, ‘Right here you go. You guys win.’ We should always have finished it.”
The Bucs’ cross rush is displaying indicators of life, as is Tampa Bay’s working recreation. And this workforce has the teaching employees that is aware of tips on how to win the NFC South together with essentially the most proficient roster within the division. If this Bucs workforce can get wholesome – and most significantly, keep wholesome – and end no worse than 4-2 within the division like they did final 12 months – there isn’t any cause why Tampa Bay can’t efficiently defend one other division title.
STATEMENT 2. Tough Night time For Bucs Rookies
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Picture by: USA Right this moment
It was the primary primetime recreation for Tampa Bay’s rookie class and it turned out to be tough evening in Atlanta. Heart Graham Barton had his worst recreation of the 12 months, giving up a important sack on third down within the purple zone within the fourth quarter that led to a Bucs discipline purpose. The primary-round choose additionally had a important holding name on second down on Tampa Bay’s remaining drive that moved the workforce out of discipline purpose vary and finally led to a punt. Barton was the lowest-graded Bucs participant on offense (39.5), in response to PFF.
Operating again Bucky Irving, the workforce’s fourth-round choose, had a number of good runs, but additionally had a expensive fumble on the Atlanta 32 late within the fourth quarter that price the Bucs an opportunity at extra factors. Irving had 9 carries for 44 yards (4.9 avg.), together with a 16-yarder on his first carry, along with two catches for 12 yards, however the fumble proved to be expensive.
Rookie nickelback Tykee Smith additionally had his worst recreation of his younger profession, permitting two touchdowns. It wasn’t all dangerous for Smith, who led the Bucs in tackles with 11, however enjoying some dangerous approach on a number of scoring performs proved to be expensive.
“He had a bunch of tackles,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned. “For the primary time he had two or three errors since he’s been right here. You neglect he’s a rookie. He had two or three issues he might do higher, however he’s a tricky participant for us. He’s a wise participant, we depend on him to do quite a bit – he does quite a bit.
“He’s extra like an outdoor [linebacker] after they run the ball as a result of he can tackle guards and tackles in addition to tight ends so he’s very productive for us and we simply have to scrub up a number of issues.”
2 PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1. Why Did Todd Bowles’ Protection Look So Unhealthy In Atlanta?
Bucs ILBs Okay.J. Britt and Lavonte David – Picture by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
There have been a number of causes. Permitting any quarterback to cross for 500 yards and 4 touchdowns is horrible, and it shouldn’t come as a shock that it was Kirk Cousins who carved up the Bucs protection, main the Falcons to a “You want that?!” come-from-behind win as he did with the Redskins again in Washington towards Lovie Smith’s protection in 2015.
Todd Bowles might’ve used the assistance of inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and All-Professional free security Antoine Winfield Jr. on Thursday evening in Atlanta. Dennis is probably going finished for the 12 months with a shoulder harm, whereas Winfield is getting nearer to getting back from his foot harm. Inside linebackers Okay.J. Britt and growing older linebacker Lavonte David have been repeatedly focused over the center as a result of neither has ultimate velocity to really cowl some routes the way in which they have to be lined.
“We wish to have extra velocity on the sector at sure occasions,” Bowles mentioned. “Okay.J is an excellent zone participant however at occasions we wish to have some velocity guys on the sector and the communication must be higher, particularly with the safeties. After we misplaced Jordan [Whitehead], we misplaced a number of the communication facet of it after which we simply missed some drops and missed some tackles.”
Bowles was being beneficiant about Britt, who was Professional Soccer Focus’ worst-graded Bucs defender with a 38.3 grade, together with a 46.8 protection grade.
Throw in the truth that the Bucs simply performed in a brutally scorching and humid recreation at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday whereas the Falcons beat the Saints in an air con dome and that was one more issue as to why Tampa Bay’s protection light within the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay’s protection got here into the sport drained on a brief week, and that fatigue confirmed with sloppy tackling and protection that simply wasn’t tight sufficient.
Bucs S Kaevon Merriweather and CB Jamel Dean and Falcons WR Darnell Mooney – Picture by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Making issues worse was the truth that Bowles’ unit solely pressured one turnover – an interception by David – and just one punt. In any other case, the protection was on the sector for a staggering 81 performs – 30 greater than Tampa Bay’s offense had – together with the ultimate 13 snaps of the sport in each the fourth quarter and extra time. When the Falcons received the toss in extra time and elected to obtain, the Bucs protection was out of gasoline and it confirmed, sadly.
Due to the harm to Winfield, Bowles couldn’t go to a dime package deal that might’ve taken Britt off the sector and changed him with an additional security.
“When [Winfield] comes again, we’ve got these varieties of packages in, however with the accidents, we are able to’t afford to make use of these proper now,” Bowles mentioned.
Tampa Bay’s protection had 11 QB hits and 4 sacks, so the strain on Cousins was sufficient. It was largely free protection that doomed the Bucs protection and allowed Cousins to thrive.
QUESTION 2. Are We Seeing The Emergence Of Logan Corridor – The Go Rusher?
Bucs DT Logan Corridor and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Picture by: USA Right this moment
The Bucs definitely hope so. Tampa Bay has waited three years for Logan Corridor to play in addition to he did on Thursday evening when he formally recorded 5 quarterback hits and a career-high two sacks. This might not be a fluke both, as Corridor recorded his first sack of the season final week towards the Eagles and now leads the workforce with three in 5 video games.
No person had Corridor main Tampa Bay on their bingo playing cards at this juncture, nevertheless it’s actual. Corridor has appeared like an absolute bully in the midst of the Bucs protection over the past two video games.
But is it sustainable? Or will Corridor return to being the invisible man he’s been too typically since being the workforce’s first choose within the 2022 NFL Draft?
“Yeah, it’s sustainable,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned of Corridor’s current play. “He’s approaching. We all the time knew he was athlete, nevertheless it took time to get his cross rush issues down. He does loads of speaking to Vita [Vea], he did loads of speaking to [Calijah] Kancey on the sideline, of tips on how to attempt to assault these guys and what he desires to do with them – much less swim approach and extra fingers to energy after which he’s utilizing his strikes on the finish and his athleticism.
“I believe it’s sustainable. I believe he’s approaching each week, and he sees it now, in order that’s giving him extra confidence and we simply sit up for him getting higher.”
After not recording a sack from the inside defensive position over the primary three video games, between Corridor’s three sacks and Vita Vea’s two, Tampa Bay is now getting extra strain and extra manufacturing inside. Simply wait till Calijah Kancey comes again, too.
2 BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Will get A lot-Wanted Division Win In New Orleans
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Picture by: USA Right this moment
The Buccaneers can have 10 days earlier than their subsequent recreation at New Orleans to relaxation, recuperate, rehab and heal up earlier than enjoying a “gotta have it” recreation towards the Saints. Tampa Bay can’t afford to lose two in a row, drop to .500 and fall to 0-2 within the NFC South ought to the workforce lose in NOLA.
The two-2 Saints play the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis on Monday Night time Soccer and will endure their third straight defeat of the 12 months. Arrowhead is a tricky place to play, particularly in primetime when Patrick Mahomes’ magic appears to be at its greatest. And needless to say the Chiefs are really a defensive workforce this 12 months and the Saints have struggled to attain factors the final two video games after placing up over 40 factors within the first two victories of the season.
Now it’s the Saints’ flip to should play on a brief week. We’ll see if Todd Bowles and Liam Coen can use the additional time to prep for New Orleans and get Tampa Bay again on observe. I nonetheless consider on this Bucs workforce and it’s best to, too. The unthinkable loss to Denver was far worse to soak up and course of than Thursday’s evening loss at Atlanta.
PREDICTION 2. Damage Bug Will Hold Biting The Bucs – All Season Lengthy
Bucs OLB Markees Watts – Picture by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Some years the harm bug simply doesn’t chunk. It’s no coincidence that the Bucs’ two Tremendous Bowl seasons got here in years the place the workforce was as wholesome as ever in 2002 and 2020. Final 12 months was comparatively injury-free in Tampa Bay as effectively, outdoors of Matt Feiler’s knee harm, Calijah Kancey’s calf (the opposite one) and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean being banged up.
This 12 months, it’s a special story. And each recreation it’s a special harm – or two – to a special Buccaneer – or two. A number of key Bucs have missed a number of video games already and some extra acquired banged up within the Thursday loss at Atlanta. Robust security Jordan Whitehead and out of doors linebackers Markees Watts and Yaya Diaby suffered accidents – though Diaby returned.
This simply doesn’t look like the 12 months the place the soccer gods are smiling on Tampa Bay. I don’t suppose the harm bug goes to be repelled anytime quickly. That doesn’t imply that the Bucs can’t win 10 video games, make the playoffs and even win the division. However simply as we noticed in 2021, the 12 months the workforce received a franchise-best 13 video games, premature accidents to key gamers can derail a Tremendous Bowl run.
That was the case when Professional Bowl proper sort out Tristan Wirfs and 1,000-yard extensive receiver Chris Godwin missed the NFC Divisional playoff recreation versus the Rams. In the long run, this 12 months’s injury-riddled Bucs received’t make it to the Tremendous Bowl, sadly.
