2-Point Conversion: Only Team That Can Stop The Bucs? Themselves

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Level Conversion post-game column, which options two statements, two questions and two predictions based mostly on the most recent Bucs recreation.

Tampa Bay did what it wanted to do on Sunday to get again on prime of the NFC South. The Bucs paired a 48-14 blowout win over the Panthers with an additional time loss by the Falcons to the Commanders to maneuver forward of Atlanta within the division. A win over New Orleans would give 9-6 Tampa Bay a fourth straight division title.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Solely Crew That Can Cease The Bucs? Themselves

Right here’s what we’ve discovered in regards to the Bucs because the bye week as Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 down the stretch heading into the season finale in opposition to New Orleans on Sunday.

Bucs OC Liam Coen and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

The one crew that may beat the Bucs are themselves.

Tampa Bay has had three blowout victories because the bye, profitable at New York in opposition to the Giants, 30-7, beating the Chargers in Los Angeles, 40-17, and Sunday’s 48-14 conquer Carolina. The Bucs additionally had a double-digit win over the Raiders, 28-14, and an in depth, 26-23 additional time win at Carolina.

Tampa Bay’s solely loss was at Dallas, 26-24, on Sunday Evening Soccer.

Positive, the Bucs have overwhelmed some unhealthy groups alongside the way in which. The Giants, Raiders and Panthers will all be selecting within the High 10 within the NFL Draft subsequent April, as will the Saints, whom Tampa Bay faces on Sunday. However the 40-17 win over the Chargers on the street additionally reveals that this crew can beat playoff-caliber foes.

And let’s not neglect that the Bucs beat the Commanders (11-5), Lions (13-2) and Eagles (13-3) throughout the first three weeks of the season. These wins nonetheless rely for a 9-6 Tampa Bay crew.

However in the one loss down the stretch, it was self-inflicted wounds that doomed the Bucs in opposition to a lesser Cowboys crew. Tampa Bay misplaced the turnover battle 3-0 in Dallas, and had some expensive penalties, too. That’s why the primary Panthers recreation was shut, because the Bucs misplaced the turnover battle 2-1, but survived an additional time win.

On Sunday Tampa Bay didn’t flip it over to Carolina and look what occurred. Not only a shut win – a blowout.

Even when the Bucs had two giveaways in opposition to the Chargers the Tampa Bay protection produced two takeaways to even out the turnovers. That was just about the case in opposition to the Raiders too, though Las Vegas did have a slight edge in that division, 3-2. But the Bucs nonetheless gained by 15 factors.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA As we speak

When Tampa Bay is on – and I imply scoring 30 factors or extra – the crew is nearly unstoppable. Liam Coen’s high-powered offense has the crew averaging 29.7 factors per recreation. And look how Todd Bowles’ play-calling on protection modifications and turns into efficient and enhanced with an enormous lead.

Until the Buccaneers get sloppy with fumbles and interceptions, and draw premature penalties, it’s onerous to cease Coen and Co. from placing up 30 factors. That has now occurred in eight out of the crew’s 16 video games this season, together with 3 times because the bye week.

Why do I’ve a sense that one other 30-point outburst is coming in opposition to New Orleans on Sunday? Keep in mind, the Bucs beat the Saints, 51-27, on the bayou again in Week 6.

It might be a fluky stat, but it surely held up once more in Sunday’s win versus the Panthers: the Bucs at the moment are 9-1 when scoring first this 12 months and 0-6 after they don’t.

Sizzling begins result in blowout wins – particularly when the Bucs get out of their very own means.

STATEMENT 2. Mike Evans, Bucky Irving Assault Opponents By Air And Land

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay is poised to do one thing that has by no means been accomplished earlier than in franchise historical past. If future Corridor of Fame extensive receiver Mike Evans can hit 1,000 yards with 85 extra receiving yards in Sunday’s season finale in opposition to the Saints, the Bucs could have a 1,000-yard receiver, a 1,000-yard operating again and a 4,000-yard passer in the identical season for the primary time ever.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield did his half two weeks in the past at Dallas, topping 4,000 yards for simply the second time in his profession. Rookie operating again Bucky Irving grew to become the Bucs’ first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin achieved that feat again in 2015.

Now it’s Evans’ flip to increase his streak to an NFL-record 11 seasons with 1,000 receiving yards to begin a profession. Evans would additionally tie Jerry Rice’s mark of 11 straight years with 1,000-yard seasons, though Rice didn’t begin his profession off with 1,000 yards again in San Francisco like Evans did in Tampa Bay.

The trio of Mayfield, Evans and Irving have ignited the offense down the stretch. For the reason that bye week, the Bucs are averaging 32.7 factors per recreation, which is greater than the crew’s 29.7 factors per recreation common.

Bucs WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving and QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA As we speak

Evans has a pair of 100-yard video games through the air and got here shut to a different one with 97 yards versus the Panthers on Sunday. Irving has a trio of 100-yard dashing video games along with his most up-to-date approaching Sunday with 113 yards in opposition to Carolina. He was named the NFC Offensive Participant of the Week for his 152-yard, one-touchdown efficiency within the Week 13 win in Charlotte.

Mayfield has thrown for 285 yards or extra in 5 of Tampa Bay’s final six video games. He’s additionally had three video games over that span with three passing TDs or extra, together with a season-high 5 touchdowns in opposition to the Panthers on Sunday. Mayfield was the NFC Offensive Participant of the Week following the Week 15 win at Los Angeles and will win the identical honor once more this week.

So long as this trio stays sizzling – with assist from the offensive line and the Bucs’ supporting forged on offense – there’s no recreation forward that Tampa Bay can’t win so long as it wins the turnover battle.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Is Defensive Sort out Logan Corridor Turning The Nook?

Bucs DT Logan Corridor and Panthers QB Bryce Younger – Picture by: USA As we speak

It positive appears to be like like, doesn’t it? After registering 2.5 sacks as a rookie after which none final 12 months, the stress was on defensive sort out Logan Corridor to step up as a go rusher this season. Corridor posted one other sack on Sunday to carry his season complete to five.5 sacks this 12 months, which is tied for third on the crew with linebacker Lavonte David.

Solely defensive sort out Calijah Kancey, who now has a career-high 7.5 after sacking Bryce Younger on Sunday, and defensive sort out Vita Vea (six) have extra. Corridor, who had one among 5 Bucs sacks in opposition to the Panthers, has had a pair of video games with a number of sacks in opposition to Atlanta (two) and Los Angeles (1.5). He’s lastly dwelling as much as his potential because the crew’s prime choose at the beginning of the second spherical in 2022.

“I’ve been enjoying sooner than I’ve ever performed in my NFL profession,” Corridor instructed me after the sport. “There’s completely no pondering concerned. I’m simply enjoying quick and I’m having extra enjoyable than I’ve ever had. Issues are simply naturally taking place for me.”

Including some needed power during the last two low season’s and getting his weight nearer to 300 kilos has been an enormous key for the 6-foot-6 Corridor.

“You may see it if you watch the tape – I’ve undoubtedly gotten stronger,” Corridor stated. “That’s simply occurred with my onerous work within the offseason. I’ve been reaping what I’ve been sowing.”

Corridor wound up because the third-highest defender in Tampa Bay’s 48-14 win over Carolina on Sunday and the arrow is pointing up concerning his profession in Tampa Bay as he appears to be like to complete his third season within the league with a bang.

QUESTION 2. What’s The Bucs’ Achilles Heel?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Picture by: USA As we speak

It’s simply the turnover differential. Tampa Bay simply isn’t taking the ball away sufficient this 12 months, and that’s an enormous concern. The Bucs have solely seven interceptions on protection and that has performed an enormous position within the crew having a minus-4 turnover differential.

The Bucs have fumbled the ball away seven instances and recovered 11 on protection. But quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 15 interceptions this 12 months, however the protection has not accomplished sufficient to offset them.

Tampa Bay has the worst turnover margin out of all the NFC playoff groups. The Payments lead the league with an absurd plus-23 turnover differential, and the highest crew within the NFC is the Packers at plus-12, adopted by the Eagles and Vikings at plus-10. The Lions are plus-9, the Rams are plus-7, and the Commanders are plus-2.

Until Mayfield is further cautious with the soccer within the playoffs or Todd Bowles’ unit abruptly comes away with loads of takeaways, the Bucs’ postseason journey could possibly be a really transient one.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Rating 37 Factors To Break Tampa Bay’s Factors File

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have scored 475 factors this 12 months, which is the third-highest mark in Tampa Bay historical past behind the 2020 (492) and the 2021 (511) seasons. It’s largely been Liam Coen’s offense with a scoop-and-score from Antoine Winfield Jr., a blocked punt return for a landing from J.J. Russell and a security in opposition to Atlanta serving to out. The Bucs want to attain 37 factors on Sunday to interrupt the file set by Tom Brady and Co. through the crew’s 13-win season in 2021.

Understand that the Saints allowed 51 factors in a 51-27 loss again in Week 6 at New Orleans, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see Coen’s offense rating loads of factors once more. The truth is, Tampa Bay’s offense has scored 40 factors at Los Angeles and 41 of the crew’s 48 factors versus Carolina throughout the span of three video games. Dropping 37 factors on a Saints squad that misplaced 25-10 in opposition to a woeful Las Vegas crew final week wouldn’t be far-fetched.

The Bucs offense scored 497 factors out of the crew’s 511 factors again in 2021. Security Mike Edwards had a pair of pick-sixes in opposition to the Falcons that season. This 12 months’s offense has scored 459 factors. So if it really desires to be the highest-scoring offense in Tampa Bay historical past, scoring 39 factors would get to 498 factors from that aspect of the ball, and 514 factors in complete. I believe it may occur with how effectively Baker Mayfield and Co. are enjoying.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Beat The Saints To Win The NFC South Once more

How about that for a fast and straightforward prediction? It ought to occur, proper?

Completely happy New Yr, Bucs followers!