Whereas it arrived every week later than anticipated because of the postponement of the derby, Liverpool lately performed out their nineteenth recreation of the league season and it’s now time to evaluate.
It means Arne Slot‘s Reds are formally midway via their marketing campaign, albeit having performed Man United twice and Everton under no circumstances.
The Reds sit on the high of the desk on 46 factors, their finest return after 19 video games for the reason that membership final gained the title in 2019/20 after they had banked 55 factors on the midway stage.
• READ: Liverpool on the right track for Third-highest factors haul at midway stage
So it begs the query, what have we realized from the primary half of the season?
Liverpool are imperfect however nonetheless favourites
After 11 video games, I wrote a chunk analysing Liverpool’s title probabilities based mostly on knowledge. At the moment, the Reds have been on monitor for a 96-point season, though they have been overachieving their xP (Anticipated Factors) tally because of a red-hot attacking unit.
Their ‘true’ stage then gave the impression to be round 83 factors by season’s finish, which is first rate, however far above the closest challengers on the time – demonstrating simply how uncommon this Premier League season was shaping up.
Now on the midway mark, Liverpool are monitoring for a extra cheap 92 factors – however their xP can also be as much as 86 factors, that means we will now comfortably predict the Reds will land at or close to the 90-point mark.
Man Metropolis have crumbled, as predicted, whereas Arsenal have rediscovered their high type – they’re unbeaten in 9 league video games for the reason that evaluation was printed. However they’ll now seemingly want 50 factors from the 54 remaining to catch Liverpool on the high – and certain would wish to win at Anfield for the primary time since 2012.
Slot’s facet are regressing, as anticipated, after a tremendous begin – however they’re nonetheless clearly the very best crew within the league, and clearly have the very best likelihood to win it.
Full-backs are the fulcrum, and the longer term have to be secured
To clarify simply how fluid the full-back function has been this season, right here’s Trent Alexander-Arnold speaking about how Arne Slot coaches them in buildup:
“The supervisor will dissect how they press so we will outnumber the best way they press. In the event that they press with three, we’ll have 4 gamers round, in order that we will play via them. In the event that they press with a two then there’ll be three gamers, et cetera. It’s nearly who these gamers are and the place it really works finest.”
A excessive diploma of tactical intelligence is required, with the full-backs given particular directions for every recreation – after which challenged to make changes in-game as opponents react.
Towards the ball, they each keep deeper to disclaim house for wingers on the counter, permitting them to run up and down the pitch much less but additionally giving them better duty in defending 1v1.
In consequence, Liverpool’s capability to construct play, create synthetic transitions and defend quick breaks are all depending on the full-backs – and it’s on this context that Andy Robertson has drawn criticism.
In response to FBref, Robertson’s defensive numbers have barely modified from final season, whereas the decline in his attacking output is essentially because of the new setup.
He did get despatched off in opposition to Fulham, although he had simply sustained a big knock when he made the error, and has made some alarming errors in construct up.
However different incidents have been unfairly added to the case in opposition to him, such because the similar targets scored by Leicester and Man United when his winger ran throughout him – targets which are typical for a full-back to concede, not the signal of a participant in decline.
He has seemed each bit a participant whose rotation choices are absent, with each Kostas Tsimikas and Joe Gomez struggling accidents forcing him to play recreation after recreation.
The significance of the function below Slot means a excessive stage backup possibility is required. However the dismissal of hyperlinks to Antonee Robinson (27) in favour of targets resembling Milos Kerkez (21) and Jorrel Hato (18) suggests it’s a long-term successor that Liverpool search moderately than a alternative.
Greatest crew within the league – but it surely’s a squad recreation
It’s exhausting to argue in opposition to Liverpool’s beginning eleven being the very best on this planet this season. Nevertheless it comes from a pool of roughly 14-15 gamers which have Slot’s belief and his dependence on them has been detrimental at occasions.
The likes of Virgil Van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah have had little alternative to relaxation as Slot has been reluctant to belief backups like Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endo and Darwin Nunez.
It’s led to some shows influenced by fatigue, significantly the defeats to Nottingham Forest within the league and Tottenham within the Carabao Cup.
With Federico Chiesa the one signing that Slot has greenlit to date, he has but to construct a squad that he can belief from high to backside. That is likely to be the distinction between one massive trophy and a handful of them come season’s finish.
Spectacular firepower however Salah nonetheless important weapon
That Chiesa signing means Liverpool have six senior forwards at their disposal. However the different 5 massively underperformed their xG final season, that means there have been some choices for the brand new boss to make.
Diogo Jota is his clear favorite to guide the road when match, however in his absence Slot has repurposed Luis Diaz as a centre ahead and unleashed Cody Gakpo on the left wing. Each gamers have subsequently gone up a stage from their stints within the reverse positions below the earlier coach, and the frontline is at the moment probably the most potent within the Premier League.
No crew within the competitors has scored greater than the Reds’ 47.
However there’s nonetheless clearly one important man. Salah has a brand new look, a brand new function out of possession and a brand new lease on Liverpool life that has seen him mount a robust case for the Ballon d’Or. He’s scored an absurd 38 % of his facet’s league targets on the midway mark.
Maybe that’s why hyperlinks have emerged to Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – Slot seemingly desires to construct a ahead line in his personal picture that may share the goalscoring burden.
Arne Slot just isn’t an unknown entity now
The ultimate phrase then ought to go to the person whose title is throughout this piece. Slot was a terrific unknown earlier than a ball was kicked, a coach plucked from the Eredivise to interchange Jurgen Norbert Klopp.
Halfway via the season, we’ve realized that the Dutchman is up there with the very best of the very best.
He’s turned the third-best crew of final yr’s league to the very best, utilizing solely a ways board and a eager eye for repurposing the expertise at his disposal.
In addition to tinkering with the frontline, each member of his first-choice midfield is enjoying a distinct function than they did final yr.
The most important points from final season – ending probabilities, stopping targets and controlling video games – have all been addressed and improved upon. His capability to tweak positions, shield leads or ship on a fourth attacker to discover a aim have been instrumental in altering video games and snatching factors.
Now to see how he goes about navigating the second half of 2024/25.
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