The Mariners have been linked to a few Cubs lately, with current rumors that they’d mentioned each infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Instances took a have a look at these talks and another Mariner matters forward of subsequent week’s Winter Conferences.
Each gamers are wise targets for the Mariners, who’ve infield vacancies and have been attempting to treatment their strikeout woes for some time. The membership’s hitters had been punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with solely the Twins having the next price that season. The M’s moved on from gamers like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an try to enhance this however the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s really noticed the team-wide price bounce to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the very best within the majors.
Hoerner has solely been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances so far. Bellinger has the next profession strikeout price of 21.1% however he’s completed every of the previous two seasons at 15.6%. Past the contact stuff, each gamers might additionally match Seattle’s want for infielders. They turned down a membership choice on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France final yr and Justin Turner grew to become a free agent at season’s finish.
They’re reportedly wanting so as to add at each corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they’re reportedly content material sufficient with utilizing Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss till prospect Cole Younger forces his manner into the image.
Luke Raley could possibly be a part of the primary base answer, although he struggles towards lefties and would should be platooned. He may be moved to outfield if the M’s add an on a regular basis first baseman. They’ve curiosity in re-signing Turner or reuniting with previous pal Carlos Santana, however it is sensible that they’d contemplate Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly decided to maneuver both him or Seiya Suzuki and unencumber their place participant combine.
Nevertheless, pre Jude’s report, the monetary elements of a Bellinger commerce are an element. The Mariners are reportedly planning to extend payroll subsequent yr, however not by a lot. Jude pegs their spending vary at $150-155MM and says they’ve about $15MM of room in the meanwhile. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the membership’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM final yr, in order that vary tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource presently initiatives the membership for a $146MM payroll subsequent yr, which appears to be only a tad larger than what Jude is suggesting.
Bellinger’s present contract wouldn’t match into these parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this yr after which must determine between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM wage for 2026. As such, Jude means that the Mariners must embrace Haniger or Garver within the deal to steadiness out the cash a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have a lot curiosity in Haniger, since they have already got an outfield surplus. On prime of that, he’s coming off a poor season and goes to make $15.5MM subsequent yr.
Garver is a greater match for the Cubs since his main defensive place is catcher, a spot they need to improve. Nevertheless, he’s been injured very often and grow to be extra of a delegated hitter over time. He’s additionally coming off a tough marketing campaign and can make $11.5MM subsequent yr, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual choice.
Maybe the contract scenario will stand in the way in which of a deal coming collectively. There’s additionally Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out scenario to think about. After some tough seasons the place Bellinger was seemingly held again by accidents, he had a pleasant bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 residence runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, main FanGraphs to credit score him with 4.4 wins above substitute. However he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line whereas stealing simply 9 bases and spending much less time in heart discipline because of the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was simply 2.2 this yr, half of the prior yr regardless of taking part in in the identical variety of video games.
Bellinger declined to set off an opt-out in his contract on the finish of that middling season however has one other opt-out subsequent yr. That makes him a difficult gamble for any buying membership. The very best case situation is that you simply get him again in good kind and he leaves after yr one, however even that situation prices $32.5MM. The draw back is that he doesn’t get again to that stage and sticks round as an overpaid a part of the 2026 roster.
As for Hoerner, it was lately reported that the Mariners had mentioned him with the Cubs, however it wasn’t clear how they had been. At the moment, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it appears the curiosity is actual from Seattle’s finish.
He can be an attention-grabbing match as he’s principally a glove-first participant. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his profession for a 102 wRC+. However because of his glorious protection and baserunning, he was been price roughly 4-5 fWAR in every of the previous three seasons.
He got here up as a shortstop however has been principally taking part in second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s typically perceived as able to returning to shortstop on one other membership, however the Mariners have already got Crawford. Except the M’s have designs on shifting Crawford, then it appears they view Hoerner as an excellent choice to assist with their uncertainty at third or maybe second base.
When it comes to wage, Hoerner goes to make $11.5MM subsequent yr and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a much better monetary match than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are searching for MLB-ready assist whereas the Mariners would slightly give up prospects. There was loads of commerce hypothesis across the Seattle rotation because it’s so robust however the depth is definitely not nice and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has mentioned that surrendering a giant league starter is “Plan Z”.
