The Bucs needs to be busy this offseason. And never simply with exterior strikes.
Very like final 12 months, the workforce can have homegrown expertise to lock up. However not like final 12 months, time is much less of an element. Sure, star huge receiver Chris Godwin is a pending free agent. However past him, the precedence will doubtless be positioned on younger expertise that aren’t pending free brokers, however nonetheless eligible for extensions.
Efficient at the moment, members of the 2022 NFL Draft class are eligible to signal extensions with their workforce.
From the primary decide in Jaguars DE Travon Walker to Mr. Irrelevant in 49ers QB Brock Purdy, we may see loads of offers over the months forward.
— Discipline Yates (@FieldYates) January 6, 2025
Three Members Of Bucs’ 2022 Draft Class Probably To Get Extensions
Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Proper sort out Luke Goedeke, tight finish Cade Otton and cornerback Zyon McCollum are all members of the Bucs’ 2022 draft class who’ve likelihood to ink new offers within the offseason.
Goedeke has grow to be the final word story, blossoming into among the finest proper tackles within the NFL. Otton has improved from a borderline starter into among the finest move-blocking tight ends within the league. And through a four-week stretch the place the workforce was with out Godwin and Mike Evans, Otton grew to become the workforce’s major weapon within the passing recreation and shouldered the load nicely. McCollum began the 12 months taking part in like a premier nook earlier than falling off in the direction of the top of the season.
All three needs to be thought-about part of the Bucs roster plans for the following 3-5 years and Tampa Bay can be smart to lock them up sooner reasonably than later as a result of the wage cap solely goes up – and their respective worth tags will doubtless go up, too. With the common season concluded I can now make ultimate contract projections for every. There’s a likelihood that anyone or extra of those gamers may have a narrative-driven postseason that drives their costs up a bit, however I really feel snug that these projections shall be near their true worth at this level.
RT Luke Goedeke
Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Luke Goedeke has the best probability to get an early extension and would be the costliest. He performs a very powerful place of the three. Contemplate that the 5 highest-paid offensive tackles within the NFL have a mean APY of slightly below $27 million per 12 months. The highest 5 tight ends common $15.375 million per 12 months and the highest 5 cornerbacks common slightly below $22 million per 12 months.
Goedeke’s 2024 has been stellar. Of the 64 tackles with at the very least 350 go blocking snaps, Goedeke ranks seventh in strain charge allowed (3.14%) and tied for eighth in go block effectivity (98.0). He has allowed simply three sacks, and no quarterback hits all season. And that is on the heels of a really strong 2023 when he efficiently transitioned again to his pure place of proper sort out.
The projection system that my associate, Kyle DeDimicantanio, and I developed challenge Goedeke for a $20 million APY on his extension. But it surely’s at all times good to have a look at comparable gamers to create a real baseline for a deal. Our system recognized Brian O’Neill’s 2021 contract with the Vikings as one in every of his closest comps, so let’s check out the 2 side-by-side to see if they’re match.
O’Neill would appear to be comp for Goedeke to submit. O’Neill bought a five-year extension for $92.5 million, averaging $18.5 million per 12 months with $22,576,118 absolutely assured. The Bucs have proven a willingness to do five-year extensions for tackles, as evidenced by simply such a deal for left sort out Tristan Wirfs final 12 months.
If Goedeke had been to efficiently argue this comp, he would search for a cap-inflation adjustment that would tick his APY from O’Neill’s $18.5 million to $25 million per 12 months. This is able to be significantly greater than the $20 million I’ve him projected for and would make him the second-highest paid proper sort out within the NFL, trailing solely Penei Sewell of the Detroit Lions.
Whereas I’m assured this shall be a path Goedeke’s illustration takes, I believe the Bucs will be capable of efficiently argue some more moderen comps as a counter. As a matter of reality, I believe they could take a look at the newest early extension signed by a proper sort out as a place to begin for negotiations. Spencer Brown and the Buffalo Payments signed an extension proper originally of the 2024 season and there are some similarities between he and Goedeke which may make for comparability.
Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Each tackles had horrendous rookie seasons solely to bounce again into strong or higher gamers by 12 months three. However there are key variations that ought to work in Goedeke’s favor. Whereas each gamers had been Day 2 picks, Goedeke was a second-round decide whereas Brown was chosen within the third spherical.
And Goedeke has had higher grading, and a decrease strain charge allowed over each the complete three-year pattern as nicely in his platform 12 months. All of this may bode nicely for him getting greater than Brown’s $18 million APY.
Simply working off of that quantity and inflating for a wage cap enhance from this 12 months’s $255.4 million to subsequent 12 months’s doubtless $275 million would push the provide to $19.33 million per 12 months. Add within the draft and efficiency premiums and I’m assured the Bucs would are available in round a $20 million per 12 months provide. This would go away the 2 sides about $5 million aside on the APY.
The place I believe the compromise is available in is Tampa Bay providing greater ensures than O’Neill obtained whereas Goedeke provides them yet another 12 months than the 4 Brown signed for. The Bucs absolutely assured 37% of Wirfs’ extension and an analogous provide to Goedeke would assist offset a number of the APY haggling.
The distinction between O’Neill’s 24.4% assure and a 35% assure over 5 years could possibly be as a lot as an $11.5 million distinction. If Goedeke is prepared to return a bit additional on the APY distinction and provides the Bucs the fifth 12 months they’re doubtless searching for, and Tampa Bay is prepared to present an analogous assured construction as they did on the Wirfs deal, I may see the 2 assembly someplace on this ballpark.
5 years, $107.5 million ($21.5 million APY), $37.5 million absolutely assured
The Bucs would doubtless create a rolling assure construction much like Wirfs’ that will ultimately assure as much as about $70 million.
TE Cade Otton
Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photograph by: USA At the moment
Cade Otton was on his option to the most efficient season of his profession earlier than a late-season knee harm robbed him of the ultimate three video games of the 2024 common season. Nonetheless, he has produced 1,659 yards and 11 touchdowns over the previous three seasons. These numbers rank extra favorably on tight finish lists than you would possibly suppose. For instance, Otton is thirteenth in receiving yards amongst all tight ends since getting into the NFL.
The tight finish place is due for a market adjustment and the following wave of offers are prone to be larger than those that got here earlier than them, so any workforce proactively engaged on getting forward of this adjustment will avoid wasting cash. Our system tasks Otton for an APY of slightly below $13 million, along with his three closest comps from current seasons as Noah Fant in 2024, Evan Engram in 2022 and Cole Kmet in 2023.
These three gamers’ APY’s common out to 4.66% of the wage cap at time of signing and we’ve Otton proper in keeping with that estimation. Fant is the newest comp, and has barely higher receiving stats, however just isn’t the blocker Otton is. Plus, the tight finish market is about for an upward adjustment this low season. I anticipate the Bucs and Otton to return in on an extension that appears like this.
4 years, $52 million ($13 million APY), $18.5 million absolutely assured
Much like Luke Goedeke, anticipate a rolling assure construction that will take complete ensures to $30 million.
CB Zyon McCollum
Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photograph by: USA At the moment
Given his late-season droop, I’m less-convinced than ever that Zyon McCollum will signal an extension. I’m not saying it received’t occur. However I’m saying there’s a strong likelihood it may not.
Primarily based on his early season play, I conjectured McCollum could possibly be primed for a deal that approached had an APY of $20 million per 12 months. However that quantity is now off the desk.
I’ll additionally notice that cornerback, together with linebacker, are the 2 most tough positions to challenge. With that stated, I believe the Bucs would possibly nonetheless need to get in forward of one other positional market reset that’s on the precipice of taking place.
The cornerback market goes to blow up with elite gamers Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr. and Trent McDuffie prone to get new offers. Add them to current offers for Deommodore Lenoir, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Surtain Jr., A.J. Terrell, Tyson Campbell and L’Jarius Sneed and also you get a rising tide that may raise all boats.
A $14.5 million APY would characterize a premium over McCollum’s complete physique of labor thus far. However it might additionally characterize a big worth over the glimpses he confirmed early this 12 months and what he’s succesful at his finest. If he had been to place collectively a whole season like he confirmed weeks 1-9 of 2024, he could possibly be taking a look at an APY of $21-22.5 million per 12 months in 2026. And that shall be with him set to grow to be a free agent.
The 2025 franchise tag for cornerback is projected to be north of $20 million per 12 months. The 2026 quantity will solely be greater. An extension at $14.5 million may present the Bucs with large financial savings on what McCollum would possibly grow to be. It’s a little bit of a danger. However by taking it now, Tampa Bay can fold many of the assured cash into 2025 and 2026 giving them affordable outs only one 12 months out from his unique free company date.
Trying on the simply platform seasons listed here are the three closest gamers we discovered to McCollum’s 2024 trying on the highest correlating metrics.
That’s a formidable checklist of corners. All had a extra complete profession main into their contracts than McCollum, however I believe this illustrates the upside that McCollum presents. When contemplating his complete physique of labor since being drafted, McCollum’s comps grow to be extra common than elite.
If you happen to take a look at the typical contracts from these two lists, adjusted for the doubtless wage cap in 2025, you get an APY of $21.8 million on the excessive aspect and $8.9 million on the low. The midpoint of these two numbers is $15.35 million, which is a bit north of the $14.5 million I steered. I got here in decrease at $14.5 million to characterize McCollum’s finest efficiency being a smaller pattern measurement.
The ultimate deal, as I see it might be:
Three Years, $43.5 million ($14.5 million), $24 million absolutely assured
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb and Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photograph by: USA At the moment
This deal can be simply south of Carlton Davis III’s three-year, $44.5 million contract that he signed with the Bucs in 2022. And that’s why I believe this contract isn’t very doubtless. When Davis signed his deal, he was paid as a High 10 nook.
If McCollum and the Bucs had been to finalize this proposed contract, he would slot in at 14th. And that will shortly transfer down the leaderboard with all the aforementioned gamers who’re about to signal mega contracts. McCollum will most likely need to give 2025 a shot to succeed in the elite standing and money in at over $20 million per 12 months.
The one approach I see this getting executed is that if McCollum needs to safe the assured cash, which is why I steered the three-year time period. It permits McCollum to search for an extension after the 2027 season or hit free company in 2028 nonetheless beneath 30.
