UFC 302 roundtable: How does Dustin Poirier’s legacy change if he upsets Islam Makhachev?

Can Dustin Poirier end his story?

As he rounds the ultimate flip of an already legendary profession, Poirier takes his third crack on the undisputed UFC light-weight title on June 1 when he challenges MMA’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, Islam Makhachev, in the primary occasion of UFC 302. The matchup headlines a pay-per-view that additionally options the returns of Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa, plus extra.

Forward of Poirier’s (final?) large second, MMA Combating’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew sidle again as much as the roundtable to preview Saturday’s return to Newark, N.J.

1. How does Dustin Poirier’s legacy change if he upsets Islam Makhachev at UFC 302?

Al-Shatti: Dustin Poirier is already an all-time nice. If his profession ended tomorrow, he’d nonetheless be remembered in that means. His peak UFC run spanned a number of eras of athletes and he outlasted nearly all of his contemporaries. He’s undoubtedly on the Light-weight All-Motion First Staff, and his résumé fairly actually stands as much as any 155-pound fighter who has ever laced up a pair of four-ounce gloves. For actual, evaluate this hit listing — Max Holloway (x2), Conor McGregor (x2), Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Bobby Inexperienced, Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Dan Hooker, Michael Chandler, Benoit Saint Denis, Diego Ferreira — to any light-weight ever, and Poirier has a very good case for popping out forward. We dove deep into this matter after Poirier murked Saint Denis at UFC 299, however should you evaluate wins traditionally, Poirier is already comfortably a top-10 light-weight all-time — and for me, he’s within the prime 5.

Poirier’s largest historic fault is clearly the dearth of undisputed gold in his trophy case, however he additionally had the misfortune of competing in eras dominated by the 2 males who could — as soon as all is claimed and executed — go down as the 2 best lightweights to ever do it, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev. If Poirier’s destiny is to be the Charles Barkley or Karl Malone to Dagestan’s twin Michael Jordans, properly, there’s actually harder methods to reside.

However that’s why UFC 302 is so inherently riveting. Very hardly ever are we introduced with a struggle that would so basically remodel a divisional pantheon in a single day. Poirier is already all of this stuff and not using a signature second of championship glory. If he marches into Newark and jumps a gilly on Makhachev and steals away a title as a 5-to-1 underdog in his potential swan tune? Not solely would UFC 302 rocket to the highest of the listing as a 1A to Michael Bisping’s 1B in all-time feel-good moments, however the weight of Poirier’s towering résumé mixed with an upset of that magnitude would immediately lock him into top-three consideration on the light-weight GOAT listing alongside Nurmagomedov and the O.G. B.J. Penn (sure, he belongs, youngsters; do your analysis) — and actually, most likely into the highest two.

What number of fighters can we levy these sorts of stakes upon 14 years into their UFC runs?

Heck: There’s not a lot so as to add to what my esteemed colleague already stated. Poirier’s legacy is as rock strong because it will get. Even when he goes out and will get run over by Islam Makhachev, it modifications little or no. He’s a top-10 fighter within the historical past of MMA’s finest division (and one of many hardest divisions in all of sports activities). He’s executed the factor, secured the bag, he’s fought his absolute ass off, and on one of many funniest days since I started masking the game, he even used the ability of Twitter to again the UFC right into a nook to get what’s his earlier than thumping up Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 299. To not point out, he’s one of many prime must-watch fighters in UFC historical past. Profitable this title, at the least to me, is icing on a wonderfully baked cake.

What a UFC 302 victory would do is present certainly one of, if not the largest “Bear in mind the place, keep in mind when” moments within the historical past of combined martial arts. We’ll keep in mind the place we had been, what the date was, the meal we ate earlier than it occurred, the beverage of selection, and each different element there may presumably be. It might be essentially the most feel-good story within the historical past of the game — not as a result of Makhachev is that this evil fighter (heck, he’s one of the best fighter on planet Earth proper now, with out query) — however as a result of we’ve got been alongside on this journey with Poirier since 2011, thanks largely to the Fightville documentary.

Lots of us have grown up on this sport with Poirier. He’s one of many few fighters that permit the world in from the very starting, and to see him undergo every part that he’s gone by way of since we had been launched to him, to cap all of it off with some of the stunning title wins I’ve ever seen, can be surreal, to say the least.

When the Boston Pink Sox gained the World Sequence in 2004, I sat at a high-top desk at J.J. Grimsby’s in Stoneham, MA, with two of my brothers, a few dropping Keno slips (plus a profitable one which paid for the evening), sporting a beer-stained Pedro Martinez t-shirt. These are just some of the numerous particulars I keep in mind from that fateful October evening. If Poirier slays the beast and wins the light-weight title at UFC 302 — and should you’re longtime UFC and MMA fan — it is possible for you to to share these sorts of particulars 20 years later as properly.

Meshew: Whereas each of my colleagues are appropriate in saying that it is a enormous struggle for Poirier, I feel they undersell simply how vital a win on Saturday can be. There are only a few fighters within the historical past of MMA who’ve had extra on the road in a single struggle than Poirier does in opposition to Makhachev.

At this second, Poirier might be a top-10 light-weight all-time. However I can solely say most likely as a result of light-weight is one of the best division within the sport, and in historical past. There almost 15 dudes on the market with authentic claims in the direction of top-10 standing. And whereas we love and respect and venerate Poirier for being superior, he’s nearer to the underside of that 10 than the highest. Which implies that as 155 kilos retains rolling on, his place within the top-10 turns into ever extra tenuous. A win over Makhachev immediately modifications that. All of a sudden, Poirier is locked into the top-five, and it might take one thing fairly epic to unseat him. That’s an enormous swing.

If Poirier loses, he could retire, after which within the not-too-distant future there will likely be swaths of MMA followers who don’t know him and extra nice lightweights will rise who’ve résumés that transfer him down the listing. Or he pulls of one of many best upsets of all-time, the best feel-good second in MMA historical past, and etches himself on the light-weight Mount Rushmore. These are actually the one two futures, and I wrestle to think about some other fighter who has had such a spot between outcomes.

2. Who wants a co-headlining win extra, Sean Strickland or Paulo Costa?

Al-Shatti: Strickland and Costa have two of the largest followings within the UFC middleweight division, so whereas a loss could also be detrimental, it’s not as if Saturday is a few do-or-die state of affairs for both man. That being stated, Costa virtually actually wants a very good exhibiting extra. The spearhead of secret juice has sneakily been a considerably missing fighter over the previous half-decade. Since late 2019, Costa is simply 1-3 in 4 octagon appearances. That’s clearly not what you need, however it’s truly a worse run than his file exhibits. Over that point, Costa has: 1) Gotten totally embarrassed and emasculated in his lone title problem; 2) Proven as much as struggle week at 218 kilos for a 186-pound bout and unapologetically refused to do something however minimize all the way down to gentle heavyweight; 3) Both withdrawn or flat-out refused to struggle in 5 beforehand introduced bouts, together with one on simply 10 days’ discover; 4) Stagnated so lengthy that he now not owns a win over any fighter at the moment below UFC employment.

Costa has largely mitigated that lack of success by being a wildly entertaining dude each contained in the cage and out, however in some unspecified time in the future you must win earlier than you’re relegated to “enjoyable struggle” territory. Costa isn’t there but, but when he loses as soon as once more at UFC 302 — and appears unhealthy doing so — he may very well be barrelling towards that crossroads faster than anticipated. Strickland, then again, was MMA Combating’s 2023 Fighter of the 12 months and simply 4 months in the past got here inside a hair’s breadth of defending his UFC middleweight title.

If the query is who wants it extra, the reply might be the man who hasn’t had a related win in 5 years reasonably than the one coming off one of the best stretch of his profession.

Heck: It’s Paulo Costa, and it’s not significantly shut.

The Costa profession retrospective documentary goes to be unimaginable. Discuss experiencing the best of highs, the bottom of lows, the nice, the unhealthy, and the controversial — and he’s solely 33. “The Eraser” will struggle for the second time in a 12 months for the primary time since 2017. Sure, you learn that proper — both one or zero fights from 2018 and on. Plus, as Shaun notes above, Costa acquired thumped up within the bad-memorable means by Israel Adesanya within the “Wine-gate” championship struggle, plus the entire Marvin Vettori fiasco, however simply when everybody began to surrender on him, Costa goes out and has a wild brawl with Luke Rockhold, wins, after which offers Robert Whittaker one hell of an effort at UFC 298 in February. Costa appears locked in, so we’re flirting with “now-or-never” time with regard to getting again to a title shot.

The opposite purpose? Strickland is so over with the followers that even when he loses his subsequent three fights, he’s not going to be out of the title dialog. He has some kind of historical past with nearly each fighter who may very well be holding gold over the following 12 months or two. Costa is widespread, however he’s not on the Strickland degree.

Meshew: I totally count on my colleagues to argue that Paulo Costa wants this win extra. In any case, he doesn’t struggle that usually, and has no wins over at the moment employed UFC fighters. That’s a straightforward case to make. Nevertheless it’s incorrect. Sean Strickland wants this win extra.

As unbelievable because it nonetheless is to me, Strickland is a former UFC middleweight champion and one of many extra widespread fighters within the promotion. If you happen to had advised me that may be the case three years in the past, I’d have laughed in your face. And but, it’s true. By way of laborious work, a little bit of luck, and the growing quantity of MMA followers who look towards grievance politics for cultural validation, Strickland has righteously change into a champion and star. Credit score to him. Most fighters do neither, a lot much less each. However right here’s the factor, he has a tenuous maintain on the stardom piece of issues, and it wants wins to maintain it alive.

Strickland just isn’t a star as a result of he’s essentially the most thrilling fighter on the earth or as a result of he has an ardent and unwavering in-built fan base (assume the Irish and Conor McGregor). He’s a star as a result of he’s stated incendiary stuff {that a} sure phase of the fan base loves, and he gained fights. However the profitable is a crucial part, as a result of the schtick doesn’t work should you’re a loser. Strickland stated all the identical shit for years now, and previous to 2023, folks simply talked about him getting slabbed by Alex Pereira.

When the followers aren’t there for who you’re as an individual, they usually’re there for what you characterize, the gimmick solely works should you’re profitable. “I additionally assume ladies belong within the kitchen, however some piece of me acknowledges that my goals didn’t pan out and I’m only a center supervisor in an organization I hate, working for somebody 10 years my junior. However that man? He’s a champion! He’s good and has these concepts, thus they have to be good — and I, who additionally has them, have to be good as properly.” However when that dude loses, properly, who cares? Somebody spherical up all of the Jacob Volkmann followers on the market nonetheless repping Barack Obama’s largest fan. I’ll wait.

So positive, Paulo Costa wants the win. All fighters have to win. However when Costa loses, it gained’t matter. He’s spent nearly all of this decade dropping and he’s nonetheless a top-ranked middleweight that calls for consideration, as a result of folks love or hate him for who he’s. But when Strickland loses, abruptly his again is in opposition to the wall, as a result of the identical of us speeding to his protection for his unprofessional conduct and abhorrent views will abandon him simply as rapidly as they adopted him.

3. What’s UFC 304’s finest struggle after the highest two bouts?

Heck: Since I get prime billing right here, I’ll go chalk, principally as a result of there’s simply no means this struggle goes to stink. Kevin Holland is again to doing Kevin Holland issues — again at middleweight, introduced for a struggle that takes place lower than a month after it’s reveal, and the place stakes don’t actually matter that a lot.

I’ve stated this for fairly a while: Holland could be very Derrick Lewis-esque, as a result of he goes past rankings, wins and losses, and different issues fighters are recognized for. Holland simply desires to get in there, make his cash, be as thrilling as doable, after which go house — with some entertaining banter alongside the best way as well. He has the right opponent in Michal Oleksiejczuk, who likes to get after it and throw warning to the wind. This would be the good table-setter for the 2 five-rounders as a result of somebody goes to sleep, rapidly!

Al-Shatti: Man, it’s powerful sledding out right here. I do know they’ll’t all be UFC 300, however sheesh, this undercard simply isn’t very inspiring. I suppose I’ll enterprise down the identical street as Mike and choose the one heavyweight bout of the cardboard, Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov, a matchup between two large boys who at one level or one other had been each One Of My Guys™.

We’re gentle years away from the good Romanov Renaissance of 2021, after I and one other unnamed gents on this panel championed the Moldovan mauler as heavyweight’s subsequent nice contender, however that doesn’t imply I’ve fully misplaced religion. If Romanov can regain among the self-discipline he confirmed earlier than he ballooned again up one other 30 kilos for his previous couple of fights, Romanov, 33, continues to be loads younger sufficient to make strikes within the heavyweight division. (He admitted as a lot this previous July after beating Blagoy Ivanov, citing “horrible issues” in his private life that briefly blew him astray.)

Equally, I’m not prepared to leap off the Jailton Almeida bandwagon simply because he suffered his first UFC loss to arguably certainly one of his hardest stylistic matchups in the entire rattling world. Is Almeida sufficiently big to impose his will in opposition to the true elite heavyweights of the division? It’s not loopy to have doubts after watching him wrestle to harm Curtis Blaydes (and to a lesser extent, Derrick Lewis), however it’s a lot too early to dump my inventory simply but.

Romanov and Almeida are each high quality assessments for the problems each face of their present heavyweight climbs, so signal me up for this little slice of just-right UFC matchmaking.

Meshew: Mike is certainly appropriate along with his selection, as Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk goes to be bananas — only a full-on automobile crash, however with director’s commentary as Holland will likely be chatting away by way of all the struggle.

Then again, Shaun going with an Alexander Romanov struggle is actually a selection, and that is coming from a person who earlier drove the “King Kong” bandwagon. That struggle goes to be the worst sort of grappling match the place one dude will get on prime and sits there for all the spherical, repeat thrice.

No, the correct reply — if we’re making an attempt to be extra inventive than simply selecting the featured struggle of the night — is Randy Brown vs. Zaleski dos Santos.

Brown is the basic case of a proficient fighter on the cusp of breaking out right into a contender, who retains falling quick on the worst occasions. However when “Impolite Boy” is cooking, the person is firing up a top-of-the-line Traeger with the high-end hickory pellets. Simply ask Muslim Salikhov and Warlley Alves.

Equally, Zaleski dos Santos has been a fringe top-15 fighter for half a decade, however couldn’t ever fairly make the leap. However he’s been enjoyable as hell to observe attempt. “ZDS” has three Battle of the Night time bonuses and a litany of superior highlights. Bear in mind when he wheel-kicked Sean Strickland out of the welterweight division? Or how about proper after that when he despatched Luigi Vendramini on the categorical boat down the river Styx? Or how about when he beat every part apart from consciousness out of Benoit Saint-Denis?

Brown and dos Santos are two dudes who get down in violent vogue, they usually’re gonna achieve this come Saturday evening.