The NFC and AFC convention championships are set. The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Payments will face the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs with a visit to Tremendous Bowl LIX on the road.
To look forward at subsequent weekend’s convention championship matchups, we requested our NFL Nation reporters to select one factor we realized concerning the groups they cowl throughout the divisional spherical. Seth Walder explored how every crew can advance, and Matt Bowen picked an early X issue. We additionally offered opening strains from ESPN BET and recreation projections from ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI).
Bounce to a matchup:WSH-PHI | BUF-KC
NFC
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox)FPI projection: PHI, 63.7% (by a median of 5.1 factors)Opening line: PHI -5.5 (48.5)
Matchup background: These two NFC East rivals cut up the collection this season. The Eagles took the primary recreation in November 26-18 and the Commanders received the December battle 36-33, although Jalen Hurts exited as a result of a concussion within the first quarter. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels fared nicely in opposition to the Eagles in 2024; he mixed for 449 passing yards, a 78.2 QBR, 6 touchdowns and three interceptions. Philadelphia and Washington final met throughout the playoffs in 1990; Washington received 20-6. — ESPN
Stat to know: Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley has had his method in opposition to Washington in his profession, averaging simply over 137 scrimmage yards per recreation. The one participant to common extra scrimmage yards in opposition to a single opponent in NFL historical past is Corridor of Famer Jim Brown in opposition to the Eagles (minimal of 10 video games, together with playoffs). — ESPN Analysis
Editor’s Picks
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Early X issue: Eagles defensive sort out Jalen Carter. His capability to create inside havoc is important for the protection. Together with the playoffs, he has 6.5 sacks, 28 pressures and 14 tackles for loss this season. Carter might want to disrupt the pocket and make impression performs to restrict Daniels and the Washington offense. — Bowen
What we realized concerning the Eagles within the divisional spherical: This Philadelphia protection has a aptitude for the large second. The snowy circumstances at Lincoln Monetary Subject made it tough on each offenses within the second half, and that is when Vic Fangio’s group pounced. First, it was Carter stripping operating again Kyren Williams for a turnover that arrange a discipline objective, after which linebacker Nolan Smith Jr. adopted swimsuit with a strip sack that arrange three extra factors. Coming into subsequent Sunday’s NFC Championship Sport in opposition to the Commanders, there will likely be questions on quarterback Jalen Hurts’ well being (he appeared to injure his left leg within the second half) and whether or not the passing assault is as much as the take a look at. However this protection is leaving no room for questioning. — Tim McManus
What we realized concerning the Commanders within the divisional spherical: Although Daniels has proved to be particular, Washington’s fortunes enhance when its protection and run recreation have days like they did in opposition to Detroit. The Commanders compelled solely 17 turnovers within the common season however now have six within the postseason, together with 5 in opposition to the Lions. These turnovers have led to a few touchdowns.
Plus, if the Commanders can get repeat manufacturing subsequent week from operating backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, they will be robust to beat. The 2 backs mixed for 132 yards — solely 15 shy of the whole from their earlier three video games mixed. — John Keim
Why the Eagles will win: They’ve a expertise benefit at virtually each place outdoors of quarterback. The Eagles have higher go catchers, a greater operating again, a greater offensive line, a greater defensive position and higher defensive backs. I am unsure any of that could be a query. Philadelphia might need had the superior linebackers when wholesome, too, although with Nakobe Dean out, that place may flip to Washington. Nonetheless, the Commanders will want an otherworldly Daniels to win, as he has to make up for Philadelphia’s benefits everywhere in the discipline.
Plus, Daniels burned the Lions partially as a result of Detroit’s accidents compelled it to take such a blitz-heavy method. The slew of stars on the Eagles protection — from Carter to Zack Baun to Darius Slay Jr. to Quinyon Mitchell — is one purpose Philadelphia can afford to not blitz usually (18% fee coming into the divisional spherical, fourth lowest), which ought to assist in containing Daniels. — Walder
Why the Commanders will win: Daniels is scorching sizzling, and coach Dan Quinn is performing optimally on fourth down. Let’s begin with the rookie quarterback, who posted a 91.8 QBR to shock Detroit and ship the Commanders into the NFC Championship Sport. Daniels confirmed repeatedly he can’t be blitzed, with a 90.1 QBR throughout the common season in opposition to the blitz (second finest), however the Lions tried anyway and had been burned badly by that alternative. However neglect simply going through the blitz: Daniels is enjoying extremely. Because the Commanders’ present seven-game profitable streak started in Week 13, Daniels has an 82.3 QBR that ranks second solely to Josh Allen (coming into Sunday) in that span.
And a part of what has made Daniels’ offensive effectivity matter much more is that Quinn demonstrated he is prepared to go for it on fourth down, conserving the ball in his star quarterback’s arms. The Commanders confronted 4 fourth downs Saturday the place the ESPN Analytics mannequin advisable going for it (there was a fifth that was impartial), and Quinn opted to go for all of it 4 instances. These choices — not the outcomes, the selections — added a cumulative 7.8% of win chance to Washington’s possibilities. That method was big, and it’ll proceed to be so long as Quinn retains the identical mentality. — Walder
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)FPI projection: BUF, 54.6% (by a median of 1.6 factors)Opening line: KC -1.5 (48.5)
Matchup background: This would be the ninth assembly between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They’re 4-4 in head-to-head conferences, however Mahomes holds a 3-0 lead over Allen within the postseason. The Payments and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season; Buffalo earned the victory 30-21 in Kansas Metropolis’s solely loss this season when the Chiefs performed their starters. These two groups confronted off in final season’s divisional spherical, and the Chiefs received 27-24. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Payments are looking for to be the third crew since 2018 to beat the Chiefs twice in a season (2018 Patriots and 2021 Bengals). — ESPN Analysis
What we realized concerning the Chiefs within the divisional spherical: Kansas Metropolis will likely be tough to beat so long as tight finish Travis Kelce is rolling. In opposition to the Texans, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster all didn’t catch a go, and Xavier Worthy had a pedestrian recreation. However the Chiefs nonetheless discovered sufficient offense to attain 23 factors and advance to the AFC Championship Sport due to Kelce.
Kelce had 117 receiving yards, greater than half of the Chiefs’ whole and greater than double his season common of 56. He appeared refreshed coming off a three-week break after the Chiefs secured the highest seed with one week left within the common season. — Adam Teicher
What we realized concerning the Payments within the divisional spherical: Buffalo can end shut video games within the postseason. Up to now, the Payments have struggled within the playoffs to complete tight video games and misplaced within the divisional spherical in three straight years. The efficiency in opposition to the Ravens confirmed that this Payments crew can succeed even when it isn’t fairly and might accomplish that in all three phases. An enormous take a look at awaits in Kansas Metropolis after dropping to the Chiefs in all three of the groups’ playoff conferences since 2020. — Alaina Getzenberg
What to know for the NFL playoffs
• First take a look at the convention title video games• Divisional spherical overreactions (ESPN+)• 10 key divisional spherical performs (ESPN+)Schedule | Bracket | Tremendous Bowl LIX
Early X issue: Worthy. In coach Andy Reid’s system, Worthy can stretch the protection on the third stage, which provides Mahomes an explosive goal versus Buffalo’s secondary. Reid also can scheme Worthy on manufactured touches when the Chiefs have the ball contained in the purple zone. He brings a playmaking ingredient to the offense. — Bowen
Why the Chiefs will win: They’ve particular person gamers who can take over a recreation. Kelce, after a quiet common season, confirmed he nonetheless has power when he racked up seven receptions for 117 yards in opposition to the Texans. Chris Jones had simply 5.0 sacks within the common season however delivered much more go rush wins (62) and pressures (50) than every other defensive sort out. Trent McDuffie was probably the greatest corners within the league. And we will not deny that Mahomes can deliver postseason magic at any second this time of 12 months. Even in a down 12 months for the Chiefs quarterback, Kansas Metropolis has (rightfully) relied on him, with the second-highest go fee over expectation within the league (plus-5%), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.
On paper, the Chiefs must be underdogs. However the world has seen Mahomes come up huge too many instances to imagine he will not once more. Add home-field benefit, and the Chiefs are virtually as scary as ever. Nearly. — Walder
Why the Payments will win: They’re the higher crew. Even coming into Sunday, earlier than beating the Ravens, FPI had the Payments 2.9 factors higher than the Chiefs on a impartial discipline. Why? As a result of they performed higher all season.
The Payments’ 0.25 EPA per dropback coming into Sunday is sort of double what the Chiefs (0.13) have put collectively this 12 months. They usually’ve been a lot better on the bottom, too — with an 0.07 EPA per play in contrast with the Chiefs’ minus-0.03 (a few of that’s buoyed by Allen’s designed runs — however hey, that can assist in the AFC Championship Sport, too). The Payments have the quarterback who has performed a lot better this 12 months. Allen ranked first in QBR (77.3) this season (coming into the sport Sunday) whereas Mahomes ranked eighth (67.7), and Allen will get the advantage of enjoying behind the superior pass-protecting offensive line.
Buffalo has some go protection questions. However offense is what drives wins within the NFL and on that facet of the ball, the Payments have a transparent edge. — Walder
