2:00
: Hey everybody. We have now a lightweight chat queue in the present day, so I’m gonna strive one thing new and go quicker, however attempt to get to nearly all of the questions
2:00
: So apologies upfront if I don’t keep it up however as of now, I’m going for an hour lengthy lightning spherical. Your voice will (nearly actually) be heard!
2:00
: Why was Jack Suwinski fairly good in 23 and fairly terrible in 24?
2:00
: variancde is wild
2:01
: additionally I feel that he spiked just about every little thing on the highest percentile in ’23
2:01
: performed approach higher than projections or minor league observe report would recommend just about in all places
2:01
: typically you’ve gotten a profession 12 months
2:01
: I now see why Rooker took $60M 3 years away when Santander acquired $68M on the similar age as a free agent
2:01
: AGreed. A bit stunned by the Santander deal
2:01
: What have been Yamamoto and Sasaki”s well being information in Japan? Any pink flags?
2:02
: Yamamoto, not conscious of a ton. Sasaki, intensive. You possibly can learn Eric’s numerous studies however he had loads of accidents and abbreviated enjoying time considerations
2:02
: padres are reportedly making Michael King obtainable. looks as if they want a LFer. would Taylor Ward for King be possible as a basis for a commerce?
2:03
: I don’t suppose that’s the sort of man they’re concentrating on, I feel they’d need both extra impression or extra staff management
2:03
: How do you see the AL West shaking out, primarily based on the place the staff’s are proper now?
2:03
: Rangers/M’s/A’s/Stros/Angels
2:03
: am i a being a naive angels fan or is it not unreasonable to speak myself into the worth of a 1-3 12 months contract with alonso with some staff choices? even when meaning havoc for the roster building?
2:03
: I’m writing about Alonso contract choices proper now
2:03
: I imply… I’d do this
2:04
: What are your go to’s when prospect stats (particularly these in ranges w/o statcast)?
2:04
: I feel that’s too advanced of a query to reply in a chat, to be sincere
2:04
: As a rule of thumb, the decrease degree and youthful the prospectds are, the extra I care about contact metrics
2:04
: In case you’re putting out 30% of the time in A ball at 20, you in all probability can’t hit main league pitching
2:04
: the older and nearer to the bigs they get, the extra I care about energy and simply total manufacturing
2:04
: as for pitchers… I don’t have an excellent heuristic
2:04
: Why do you suppose Mariano Rivera went unanimously however Ichiro and Jeter fell one vote shy? Did all of the writers who stated they wouldn’t vote for anybody from the steroid period die off?
2:05
: Really no thought and I’m aggravated that this one nameless man will get a information cycle
2:05
: what a dummy that voter is to not suppose Ichiro is a corridor of famer
2:05
: oh additionally hello ben! hope you’re doing effectively <3
2:05
: whats up! I’m doing nice, fantastic week and January has been enjoyable
2:05
: There’s no approach the Phillies are finished tinkering with their outfield proper? The offseason pitching strikes have been fantastic, however as a contending staff with a closing window I’m confused as to why they suppose Kepler is the reply
2:05
: Yeah…. I feel they’re finished, however I don’t suppose they need to be
2:05
: When does MLB hit the panic button on John Fisher and the A’s stadium state of affairs? There’s been zero signal of traders prepared to hitch his Vegas endeavor and I doubt he’s prepared/capable of deal with the stadium financing himself. If there isn’t any motion by the top of the 12 months, does MLB push him to promote?
2:06
: I feel that if we’ve discovered something in recent times, it’s that baseball doesn’t wish to push Fisher to promote
2:06
: like, what makes you suppose this may be the final straw?
2:06
: I’m nonetheless within the bargaining stage of processing my Orioles’ offseason. So: if the Orioles nonetheless had Connor Norby, would he have been sufficient to headline a commerce for Luis Castillo? Or was Mayo at all times the minimal?
2:06
: I feel that Mayo was in all probability at all times the minimal, tbh. However I don’t know the way the M’s really feel about Norby particularly so who is aware of
2:06
: It feels just like the Mariners both lacked a plan this off season or dramatically over valued its property. That is the primary off season I’ve seen from Dipoto the place he seems to be simply sitting on his fingers. Is that this an excessively harsh evaluation and are their causes to hope they gained’t squander this window?
2:06
: I feel that the best way this works out effectively for them is that if they’re proper
2:07
: if pitchers actually are this mujch extra precious than everybody else with staff management, and so they can really hit on a number of pitchers
2:07
: hitters* relatively
2:07
: Principally, the M’s have been tilting in direction of a worldview of “we worth pitchers extremely extremely and other than Julio simply make investments the scraps in hitters” from each a commerce and free company perspective
2:07
: if that worldview is true? they’ll do effectively
2:08
: to date, they haven’t been proper. They’ve hoarded these pitchers and whereas they pitch effectively, they haven’t hit sufficient for it to work
2:08
: Can the Twins get Stop and dump Vasquez’ wage with out giving up Jenkins or Rodriguez?
2:08
: What do you see the Twins doing this offseason? It appears they don’t have any clear holes to fill and restricted payroll area, however I can’t think about them simply working it again with the identical crew.
2:08
: Stop to the Twins for Vazquez, Larnach, SWR, and Andrew Morris. Who says no?
2:09
: uh…. the Padres say no right here nearly for positive. I like SWR alright however he’s a mid rotation man actually. and other than that, there’s not a lot right here for the Padres
2:09
: Preller is the king of buying and selling 5 nickels for 1 / 4
2:10
: he doesn’t wish to go the opposite approach in offers
2:10
: Ryan Pressly – stable back-end reliever or overpaid low-to-mid leverage man? The Astros overlaying $5.5MM tells me it might be nearer to the latter
2:11
: I feel it’s someplace in between, however i feel a whole lot of the difficulty right here is that the Astros are slicing finances and downsizing, and he wasn’t being maximized b/c they spent a lot different cash on relievers
2:11
: that plus the no commerce clause made a commerce difficult, however they appear to be prioritizing cash out the door
2:11
: clearly with relievers it’s at all times a crapshoot, you by no means know in the event that they’re cooked or simply had a down month
2:12
: however effectively, would you actually relatively give 1/9 to Michael Soroka than Pressly? What about 1/7 to Paul Sewald? I feel these are of a chunk
2:12
: Additionally: you guys are doing too effectively at submitting questions, I can’t pace spherical this entire factor, however I’m gonna hold attempting as a lot as doable
2:12
: Is the Nats bullpen the worst bullpen within the NL?Or, is it precisely the kind of bullpen that exceeds expectations?
2:12
: ask me once more in six months
2:13
: in different phrases, bullpens are exhausting to foretell
2:13
: It seems to be like Baseball Commerce Values estimate is the remainder of Luis Castillo’s contract is price round solely about $7M surplus worth, and that on Baltimore guys like Mountcastle, Urias or Kremer INDIVIDUALLY have comparable values, implying their mannequin would settle for 1:1 trades inside that group. How would you assess or critique these readouts for actual life?
2:13
: baseball commerce values doesn’t work
2:13
: it doesn’t mannequin actual life trades or habits all that effectively
2:14
: i might mainly say: cease utilizing these readouts, and begin fascinated by trades critically from a perspective of provide, demand, and worth above alternative
2:14
: to paraphrase Kanye West, there’s a thousand Mountcastles, there’s just one ace
2:14
: Castillo is a way more standout participant than Mountcastle relative to the sphere at his place,a nd in case your mannequin says they’re the identical, it’s in all probability fallacious
2:14
: Do you purchase the messaging out of the Playing cards FO? Mo’ needs to go away a clear slate for Bloom; so why didn’t they let Bloom take over earlier than this offseason (or stroll down the corridor and ask Bloom what he needs)? Or did they foresee a partial sell-off this offseason, however nobody wished to go away and now they’re caught…
2:15
: I feel it’s kinda affordable; i feel an honest quantity of it’s to insulate Bloom from rising pains
2:15
: they thought this offseason could be a bit extra of a downturn than it was, however Arenado used his no commerce clause after asking to get dealt in order that they acquired whipsawed
2:15
: Is there any good writing that you just or one other esteemed creator has finished on the time worth of WAR? How a lot WAR is 3 WAR one 12 months from now price?
2:16
: I haven’t seen any writing about it however I apply some linear discounting once I’m doing commerce worth stuff
2:16
: that stated, WAR is fixed at 1,000 per 12 months
2:16
: so like… my discounting is just about groups caring extra concerning the current and every little thing sooner or later, each prices and advantages, being discounted
2:16
: I don’t know the way to take a look at a “actually can’t hit a house run however elite pace and protection” prospect and inform whether or not he may have an important profession like Juan Pierre, carve a spot for a number of years like Ben Revere, or simply get caught as 4th/fifth OF as a result of main league pitchers simply is not going to stroll a man that may’t damage them.
2:16
: Right here’s the factor: scouts don’t both
2:16
: I’ve some enjoyable analysis coming for Prospects Week that I feel will make this level with knowledge
2:16
: What do you suppose could be an excellent plan for the yankees to handle their 2b/3b challenge?
2:16
: signal Alex Bregman
2:17
: Such a irritating offseason for the Mariners. Do you see any real looking path to construct a division winner with reportedly solely round $11 million left to spend?
2:17
: and I say this as somebody who picked the M’s to win the west in 2024
2:17
: their greatest likelihood is that baseball is absolutely variable and exhausting to foretell, and the Astros positive look weaker
2:17
: “Finest followers in baseball” – I can’t be the one with slightly schadenfreude over the Cardinals lack of ability to commerce Arenado or Helsley (to date)?
2:17
: I used to be by no means a giant fan of the BFIB moniker even on the peak of my Playing cards fandom
2:17
: The Padres are constructed to win now and ought to be within the wild card combine. The cash struggles are overblown. Is not sensible to commerce Stop now. In case you’re out of it in June, then we are able to speak commerce. Agree?
2:17
: They traded Soto final 12 months
2:18
: AJ likes to commerce
2:18
: I feel that it’s affordable to be available in the market listening, I think that Stop is just getting traded if somebody wants a pitcher BADLY
2:18
: and that if the Padres do it, they’ll pivot a few of the items acquired in that commerce into win-now stuff
2:18
: just like the Soto commerce, mainly
2:18
: To piggyback on the AL west query…that down on the Astros now, huh?
2:19
: I have a look at this roster and go huh, what elements do I feel are nice
2:19
: and it’s like… Yordan? I’m into Yainer. Good bullpen. I feel Altuve can hold combating getting old
2:19
: however they’re working out simply okay gamers at like 4 of 5 rotation spots, four-ish lineup spots
2:19
: their bench is terrible
2:20
: they should make some additions
2:20
: How a lot of this Padres possession lawsuit is affecting Preller’s potential to make strikes?
2:20
: I don’t know and actually, we gained’t hear till it’s over
2:20
: With their finances constraints, any likelihood a staff can pull Tatis from the Padres?
2:20
: Do groups simply not worth the Mariners pitching very extremely? The ask of Julio or Kirby for a really mid participant like Bohm was actually shocking.
2:20
: um…. yeah that wasn’t a really affordable ask, I agree
2:21
: I feel that it’s a little bit of each. The M’s have extremely excessive valuations on their pitchers, and groups are clearly a lot decrease than them. However Bohm for Kirby will not be a severe individual’s provide
2:21
: How do you are feeling concerning the entrance workplace state of affairs in St. Louis with Chaim Bloom because the PBOPS in ready? I’ve by no means seen an association like this and it’s bizarre to suppose Mozeliak would retain full management with Bloom already within the org.
2:21
: I feel that utilizing consensus to make choices is underrate
2:21
: and that the Playing cards’ setup in all probability works simply fantastic. I feel that having Bloom within the org for a 12 months to see if he gelled with individuals first was good too
2:21
: My most profitable staff working environments have concerned loads of delegation of accountability and overlapping mandates
2:21
: Make the Pirates spend extra.
2:22
: yeah….. it’s wild
2:22
: Was the Cubs DFA of Michael Arias shocking? He was #11 on their prospect record
2:22
: my understanding is that it’s a bizarre contractual factor
2:23
: shocking however they thought he’d signal a 2025 contract and so they may outright him to the minors
2:23
: he didn’t, and you’ll’t assign a participant with no 2025 contract signed to the minors
2:23
: in order that they needed to commerce or launch him
2:23
: I’m skeptical that Michael Busch will repeat his rookie season. Ought to I be?
2:23
: What’s a pattern Stop commerce that also permits the Padres to nonetheless compete in 25?
2:25
: Stop for a deal headed by Enrique Bradfield Jr. and one ML Oriole who can contribute, after which a knock-on commerce to handle pitching depth
2:25
: It looks as if the league will not be 100% shopping for into Jack Flaherty’s 2024; he wasn’t superb earlier than final 12 months. Is that what you’re listening to? Gradual marketplace for him….
2:25
: yeah I feel kind of groups are shopping for extra into the center of his profession than the bookeneds
2:25
: I appreciated Rosen’s article about how his fastball could be very mid
2:25
: Over/beneath 0.5 playoff appearances by the Pirates whereas Skenes is a Pirate
2:25
: You recognize the Astros added Paredes and Walker, proper?
2:25
: Consider it or not, I, the author who’s most obsessive about Isaac Paredes of all writers, noticed that one
2:26
: I feel that’s a reasonably mid staff, and so they randomly subtracted Kyle Tucker in a 12 months the place they desperately wish to compete
2:26
: straightforward reply, Doug. Stop for Adley and Gunnar.
2:26
: oh, toss in Jackson to keep away from making it lopsided. nearly missed that
2:26
: Do you see any legs to the Jays presumably signing Alonso?
2:26
: Oh, I kinda like that
2:26
: Analysis thought I might like to see: is it extra more likely to produce a championship with 6 years of true-talent 87 win staff or 4 years of a true-talent 93 win staff? 2 years of a true-talent 97 win staff? I want to quantify how aggravated to be on the GMs of Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
2:27
: Nice name, and I wrote this right down to strive later
2:27
: As a fan of baseball speak me into the product being worthwhile when 75% of the groups aren’t incentivized to materially enhance.
2:27
: I’m really having this debate with a whole lot of buddies on the aspect proper now
2:27
: right here’s my argument: that’s true of each profesisonal sport
2:27
: so it is best to simply decide the one you take pleasure in
2:27
: like, you wish to escape a world of haves and have nots by going to the NFL?
2:27
: hope you take pleasure in Pat Mahomes
2:28
: soccer? Hope you take pleasure in that actually groups are’nt enjoying the identical recreation
2:28
: Will the Tigers exceed their 2024 win whole or will the Plexiglass Precept lead to regression?
2:28
: i feel plexiglass precept right here, sadly
2:28
: However to counter your NFL argument – see Jayden Daniels
2:28
: corbin carroll made the WS in his rookie 12 months
2:28
: soccer is hegemonic
2:28
: basketball, LeBron flies across the nation making NBA finals
2:29
: although to be honest it’s in a enjoyable transitional interval proper now
2:29
: I’m sympathetic to the concept baseball may use extra parity
2:29
: all sports activities may use extra parity
2:29
: a whole lot of that invovles the homeowners attempting
2:29
: How a lot do Vladdy Jr and Kyle Tucker break the financial institution in free company subsequent 12 months? For some time it appeared like Soto had re-set all the market; however he clearly was the outlier and it seems to be like the remainder of the market hasn’t shifted an excessive amount of off earlier valuations. For Tucker particularly, exhausting to suppose he will get a ton greater than somebody like Seager or Devers acquired (although Devers clearly not FA)
2:30
: I feel that Vlad will outdo Tucker b/c I feel the Jays are gonna break the financial institution right here
2:30
: however I feel each will sign up that Devers space, yeah
2:30
: I agree that Soto hasn’t actually reset the entire market; he’s a singular case
2:30
: so younger, so achieved at that age
2:30
: In case you needed to maintain one commerce one from King/Stop what’s your alternative?
2:30
: I feel I’d maintain King and commerce Stop however I don’t really feel strongly about that
2:30
: they’re each good
2:30
: What’s your sense of the park components to anticipate in Sacramento this season?
2:30
: I’ve it a smidge hitter pleasant however with extensive error bands
2:30
: they’re altering stuff about it and it by no means performed all that offensively relative to the PCL
2:31
: but it surely’s WAY extra offensively pleasant than Oakland, for positive
2:31
: Proper, I feel the purpose is that in MLB due to quite a lot of components – homeowners are incentivized to strive much less. You don’t get nationwide publicity within the NFL in case your staff sucks until you’re the Cowboys. Enjoyable debate although.
2:31
: yeah and but, there are an enormous swath of habitually unhealthy NFL groups
2:31
: additionally, counterpoint: the Jets are media darlings yearly
2:31
: however I digress
2:31
: What would a wage ground have to be so that you can assist a wage cap, if in any respect?
2:31
: I used to be pondering like a 150/200 band
2:31
: that wouldn’t have an effect on whole wage outlays a lot
2:32
: I actually suppose that shortening time to free company in conjunction wiht that will be very attention-grabbing
2:32
: If I’m the Orioles, I feel I gotta leap on Bradfield as headliner for Stop. Bradfield was precisely who I used to be pondering of when asking about no-power prospects.
2:32
: i imply, who the ‘ML contributor’ in that pitch is is doing a whole lot of work
2:32
: would you be into it if it was, i dunno, Mullins? I might be
2:32
: would you be into it if it have been Kjerstad? no approach
2:32
: so I’m undecided
2:32
: I hate to see baseball turning into the NBA or NFL the place the distinction between the haves and cant’s or wont’s turns into extreme. The talk a couple of wage cap goes to lift its ugly head in 2027 and I worry it’d make 1994 seem like a pleasant pleasant chat.
2:32
: yeah… I feel I agree with this sentiment
2:33
: I feel the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of Bob Nutting
2:33
: however I completely agree that the growth of the highest finish with out commensurate growth of the low spending groups will look ugly because it continues
2:33
: Do FA’s nonetheless at all times go to the best bidder? OR with $$ getting so excessive do different components (location, staff arrange/success) make it so a participant might take a proposal than is decrease, however, a greater state of affairs/nearer to house?
2:33
: I feel that the “let’s use metropolis as a tiebreaker” bands are getting wider
2:33
: like, I may see somebody taking a $10 mil much less assure for theh proper state of affairs
2:33
: at 140 vs 150
2:34
: however you don’t do this if it’s 15 million vs 10 million
2:34
: so the cash getting greater will increase high quality of life/non-monetary which means, for positive
2:34
: Whereas have been fixing baseball – I’d wish to see some sort of “Larry Byrd Rule” in MLB.
2:34
: like a luxurious tax exemption?
2:34
: I don’t fairly get it
2:34
: solely a handful of groups pay the tax
2:34
: Will the Mets discover a taker for Starling Marte in the event that they pay down a giant chunk of his wage? Could be an improve for a number of groups unwilling to spend. Or do the Mets like the concept of a Winker/Marte DH platoon?
2:34
: I…. don’t suppose they might?
2:35
: I’m questioning this query myself b/c I used to be writing about sudden declines in the present day
2:35
: like… we’re projecting him for 1 WAR/600
2:35
: that’s ABOVE what he’s produced within the final two years
2:35
: No query, simply wish to thanks for these chats and the entire nice work you and the staff do!
2:35
: effectively thanks very a lot
2:36
: I feel that FG has been killing it within the final 12 months, personallyu
2:36
: Finest meal you’ve whipped up just lately?
2:36
: We made a sandwich that was easy and but scrumptious. blackened rooster breast (made our personal blackening combine, you possibly can search for recipes but it surely’s fairly easy)
2:37
: shaved some carrots, few leaves of arugula, dijon mustard
2:37
: completely excellent
2:37
: In my thoughts, the Larry Byrd Rule gave groups some reduction (NBA cash) within the type of a league low cost to resign their very own gamers (which could be very completely different from what the NBA really did).
2:37
: oh yeah. that model, the place the income sharing pool chips in cash to assist groups resign gamers, could be attention-grabbing
2:37
: like think about if the income sharing pool, as a substitute of being break up amongst small-market groups, was solely earmarked for offers
2:38
: prefer it’s not a verify we lower to you…. we’ll assist you to c ut some checks to star gamers, however you by no means see the cash
2:38
: Have you ever or anybody on the workers finished a deep dive of Carroll’s lack of manufacturing from the shoulder pop on July sixth final 12 months to this July sixth this 12 months? He was barely under common within the 12 months in between and outdoors of that point interval he’s been a high 5 participant in baseball manufacturing sensible
2:38
: effectively, I shoved him up the commerce worth record even when he was on that one-year stoop
2:38
: I did loads of non-public analysis on it, is what I’ll say
2:38
: however eh, by no means wrote it up and the time has handed
2:39
: Ought to add, July 6, 2023 to July 6, 2024 is the parameters
2:39
: When’s the final time MLB had one thing like a Jimmy Butler state of affairs?
2:39
: possibly Operation Shutdown with Derek Bell?
2:40
: I like this quote nonetheless
2:40
: “If it ain’t settled with me on the market, then they will commerce me,” Bell stated. “I ain’t going on the market to harm myself in spring coaching battling for a job. Whether it is (open competitors), then I’m going into Operation Shutdown.”
2:40
: Corbin Burnes simply took a decrease deal to be an arizona along with his household a month and a half in the past.
2:40
: Are the cardinals an excessive amount of in limbo? they haven’t finished something to rebuild and haven’t signed an OF to assist contend.
2:41
: I feel that they’re doing it in a Playing cards-y approach as at all times. sluggish and regular. I feel it’s far more about not investing extra within the main league staff and as a substitute plowing what they do make investments into the minors
2:41
: i imply, that is likely to be a bummer. however I hope they go about it full bore
2:41
: How a lot if something are you listening to about groups experimenting with AI in scouting, prospect grades, draft modeling, and so forth.?
2:41
: I’m not listening to something however I’m completely positive it’s occurring
2:41
: Who would be the greatest participant in 2025 that performed zero or mainly zero video games final 12 months and why is it Matt McLain?
2:41
: I feel he is likely to be my decide
2:41
: I’m an enormous McLain fan
2:42
: does a Jack Flaherty get signed earlier than spring coaching, and if a participant like that doesn’t, what finally ends up occurring in the course of the season? low cost? flyer when everybody’s elbow explodes? can’t think about a dude like that even with a mid fastball doesn’t get a pitcher of espresso
2:42
: Take a look at Montgomery final 12 months, Snell, Kimbrel a number of years in the past
2:42
: typically it’s not about getting a proposal, it’s concerning the participant not liking the provide
2:42
: and which may be proper on the participant’s aspect, to be clear
2:42
: however like… if Flaherty determined in the present day “I’ll take a one-year deal and play wherever” he’d have a deal tomorrow
2:43
: Do you suppose Kyle Hart will get an MLB deal? Some other MLB/KBO stragglers?
2:43
: I feel he’ll
2:43
: However rather less assured due to the whole lack of smoke on that entrance
2:43
: Does the Soto deal imply that MVP-caliber younger guys gained’t be signing extensions for something lower than $400M now? Like, are the offers that JRod and Witt signed already old-fashioned as comps for Henderson / de la Cruz / Merrill?
2:43
: I do suppose so, yeah…. or a minimum of, for hte guys who’re up at 20, their anticipated worth has modified meaningfully
2:43
: to be honest I htink that each Witt and JRod signed are good examples of how these offers ought to go sooner or later although
2:44
: they’re each kinda funky and structured
2:44
: significantly JRod’s, tbh. with the escalators primarily based on efficiency
2:44
: How deep of a run within the playoffs do you suppose Cubs followers can fairly anticipate? WS contenders?
2:44
: i imply, the median expectation needs to be ‘miss playoffs’
2:44
: however in all probability not by a ton
2:45
: like, each playoff staff is a WS contender. I feel that the Cubs are the second-best staff within the Central, in all probability not a staff that’s gonna get a bye although
2:45
: That’s honest, I do know you do a ton of analysis on various things so I used to be extra curious in the event you had appeared into it and determined there wasn’t sufficient there for a full article or if it had been one thing that was missed. I bear in mind when the swing occurred and audibly gasped as a result of I assumed he ripped it once more like he did within the minors
2:45
: oh yeah… that harm occurred whereas I used to be writing up the 2023 commerce worth sequence however hadn’t locked it in hyet
2:46
: and I bear in mind speaking to Meg about it for a very long time
2:46
: we have been very involved that he’d simply miss a 12 months
2:46
: On which staff does Arraez match greatest? Mariners?
2:46
: I feel the Mariners are literally a extremely unhealthy match for him
2:46
: they don’t have any baserunners for him to drive in… and no energy hitters to attain him when he’s on base
2:46
: singles hitters are at their greatest on groups which have tons of visitors on the bases
2:47
: how about Arizona?
2:47
: staff filled with speedsters
2:47
: Are the Orioles really solely the third greatest staff within the AL East? They don’t appear to be getting a lot from their very extremely touted crop of prospects and it seems to be like their window is closing earlier than it even acquired opened.
2:47
: effectively, to be honest, certainly one of their extremely touted crop of prospects is Gunnar Henderson
2:47
: and that man is wonderful
2:47
: I feel that the wave of reinforcements that was speculated to arrive in 2024 has even been principally successful… Cowser popped and Westburg wasn’t a rookie however nonetheless was a younger contributor who took a step ahead
2:48
: I feel the baseball evaluation group acquired into “the O’s may have one other mega prospect b/c they at all times do” mode after Adley and Gunnar hit. They’ve nonetheless had an extremely profitable run of changing prospects into large league contributors
2:48
: I feel what we’re actually seeing right here is that you just want some outdoors help to place these groups excessive even in the event you’re hitting at hte highest charge conceivable
2:49
: like, no staff in baseball has extra superstar-prospects-turned-ML-stars than the O’s, to my eye
2:50
: however when your marquee free agent strikes are like Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Gary Sanchez
2:50
: it’s simply very exhausting to make a championship degree staff completely out of inner choices, even in the event you go full tank rebuild to juice the farm
2:50
: there are 30 groups producing expertise. If you’re in a win-now part, not dipping outdoors your personal staff’s expertise pool to reinforce the squad is a foul name
2:51
: The place would you like Arenado to begin the 12 months?
2:51
: okay, that is possibly slightly uncharitable of me
2:51
: however I’m fairly over Arenado’s grandstanding
2:51
: going from Cardinal for all times to I simply wish to play for a winner, get me out of right here, to refusing a commerce!
2:51
: b/c he “wished to let the market develop”
2:51
: sir, you might be beneath contract
2:52
: you had final 12 months to do this in the event you wished to, if you negotiated for an choose out
2:52
: I feel him ending up on the Playing cards and simply being an enormous grump about it
2:52
: after they’d agreed to a deal to ship him to one of many two most profitable groups of hte final decade
2:52
: would simply be hilarious
2:52
: Why don’t we see extra hitters try the intense crouch batting stance to shrink the strike zone ala Rickey Henderson? I might suppose gamers struggling within the minors for years don’t have anything to lose to a minimum of strive it.
2:52
: effectively, as I perceive it, the minor league strike zone is now outlined by your top
2:53
: so, it could be counterproductive
2:53
: and I feel that’s good!
2:53
: two guys who’re 6’0″ every shouldn’t have wildly completely different strike zones b/c one stands stupidly
2:53
: Usually I see baseball writers say issues to the extent of, “Don’t get mad on the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees possession, get mad on the homeowners who sit on their piles of cash.” There’s an implicit argument that there’s one thing followers ought to do to carry these homeowners accountable. Given the proportion of people that’ll present as much as or placed on a recreation no matter whether or not the staff’s any good or not, what do you suppose followers can do (if something) to stress these homeowners past calling them low-cost on Twitter?
2:53
: sadly, I don’t actually
2:53
: the system will not be arrange in a approach the place there’s an efficient approach to push again on these guys
2:54
: their cash is assured by the league, their fanbase doesn’t matter all that a lot
2:54
: I want taht weren’t the case, I simply don’t see a great way to do something
2:54
: If a deadline to signal free brokers have been put in place, would it not be extra helpful for gamers (groups must get to BAFO sooner, bids improve) or homeowners (groups collectively provide much less wealthy offers with shorter window of back-and-forth)? Seems like it could undoubtedly be pro-fan
2:54
: I feel that it could be fairly impartial
2:54
: and simply compress issues down
2:54
: What’s one factor that you just suppose groups (and / or fangraphs nerds) rightfully worth that your informal fan actually doesnt? my guess is “the worth of a 40 man roster spot”.
2:55
: yeah, a whole lot of roster gimmickry
2:55
: I imply, nonetheless the worth of a stroll
2:55
: OBP is an effective stat
2:55
: that’s nonetheless undoubtedly undervalued
2:55
: Two gamers that struggled in 2024. Noelvi Marte and Jordan Walker. Is there nonetheless hope?
2:55
: Jordan Walker, any likelihood he lives as much as expectations? Or sufficient pattern to name him a bust? He hit poorly within the minors after being despatched down
2:55
: I’m gonna give each one other 12 months
2:55
: however I’m down on every of them a TON
2:55
: Walker’s minor league season was a extremely unhealthy signal to me
2:55
: have a look at ZiPS in the present day… ew
2:56
: and Marte, he’s in a troublesome spot b/c he’ll lose his job if he’s unhealthy
2:56
: General opinion on AJ Preller’s total physique of labor going again to when he was first employed in SD?
2:56
: excessive danger, excessive reward, I’d be completely happy to have him GM my staff b/c baseball is about leisure and he produces it
2:56
: Which aspect do you lean in direction of: Pete Alonso is just definitely worth the present market worth of 1B therefore the three/70 provide or Pete is certainly one of a choose few gamers in MLB with a legit 50HR ceiling and ought to be paid above his perceived market worth.
2:56
: I’m writing an article about this actually proper now
2:57
: or effectively, no, I used to be writing it at 10:59 and I’ll begin once more when the chat is over
2:57
: so…. keep tuned and skim what I feel tomorrow
2:57
: You talked about Enrique Bradfield for the Padres in a Stop deal. You suppose he’s prepared
2:57
: however I’m not the prospect man, I’d say ask Eric
2:58
: What’s your repair for the Yankees at 2B/3B? I’ve been clamoring for them to signal Ha-Seong Kim all low season. Let Peraza play there till Kim comes again from harm, hold Chisholm at 3B.
2:58
: Optionable relievers – I feel a whole lot of informal followers don’t perceive how precious optionable relievers are.
2:59
: yeah. that was one i thought-about earlier than I made a decision OBP was extra elementary
2:59
: however yeah, that’s ‘roster gimmickry’ imo
2:59
: however crucial
2:59
: Why have you ever typically been decrease than consensus on Jackson Holliday?
2:59
: good query
2:59
: I feel that a whole lot of his projection was fairly tools-focused, I didn’t love how a lot he was putting out within the low minors
3:00
: As I discussed up above, I care quite a bit about contact metrics within the low minors
3:00
: However I feel additionally, I simply am much more prepared to simply accept that prospects bust than your common prognosticator
3:00
: and the hype round Holliday was at can’t-miss, surefire ranges
3:00
: individuals evaluating him to the perfect gamers in baseball earlier than he’d performed within the majors
3:00
: so I’m simply at all times gonna be slightly lwoer than consensus when there hasn’t been any manufacturing
3:01
: the aforementioned Orioles’ new proprietor publicly calling for a wage cap you already know he’s not spending any cash he doesn’t *have* to
3:01
: I didn’t say that however dang
3:01
: The Padres positive appear to be they’ll wish to transfer a excessive few excessive wage gamers earlier than the season begins – any guesses on who’s almost definitely to be despatched away?
3:01
: I’m nonetheless pondering Stop as a result of the marketplace for high tier pitching is scorching
3:01
: Somebody on baseball reddit made a chart of essentially the most WAR at every age (lively), and the one one beneath age 28 with greater than 25 WAR was Soto at 36. However then I appeared it up, and, sure, he’s “previous,” however Choose has 16 extra WAR in all of 61 extra video games performed. That’s gonna be a hell of a peak-heavy HOF case when all is claimed and finished.
3:01
: I feel Choose is a Corridor of Famer
3:01
: with a really bizarre form for SURE
3:01
: Will the Purple Sox attempt to flip Vaughn Grissom if certainly Kristian Campbell will get the 2B job? Why precisely did they commerce Sale for him if he’s not going to get a possibility?
3:02
: I imply, plans change proper?
3:02
: they traded for him b/c they thought he’d be an on a regular basis participant in 2024
3:02
: heck, I appreciated the commerce for them. I feel he’s an excellent match for Fenway
3:03
: however it’s a must to alter to the details on the bottom, and he was unhealthy in restricted time and now they’re getting crowded
3:03
: I feel they’ll discover a approach to strive him out someplace this 12 months
3:03
: however y eah, the leash was shorter than I anticipated
3:03
: Do you see Shota Imanaga as a probable candidate for regression given his fly ball heavy method, particularly since Wrigley performed unusually pitcher pleasant in 2024?
3:03
: probably not, b/c he gave up a ton of dingers
3:04
: I feel the large motive I’d anticipate regression in run prevention is that he had an unusually excessive strand charge
3:04
: however his xFIP (league common house run charge utilized to fly balls) was decrease than his FIP
3:04
: and in watching him, I felt like that fly ball tendency was keenly felt and a motive he didn’t do higher
3:04
: like, you possibly can think about a season the place he spikes a really low HR/FB charge and is AMAZING
3:04
: however that wasn’t 2024
3:05
: he was simply superb in a approach that appears principally repeatable to me
3:05
: How’s the progress approaching the fielding metrics article?
3:06
: mmmm….. sidelined till a minimum of March b/c I acquired into free agent stuff and it looks as if lots of people are altering defensive metrics or including new stuff
3:06
: now I’m onto prospect stuff
3:06
: by some means this offseason has been busy
3:06
: If I’ve a 12 months like my 2023 stats, will I remorse turning down the Jays extension provide?
3:06
: positive. however in case you have a 12 months like your 2024 stats, you’ll really feel like a genius
3:06
: Why don’t the Mets simply announce what they’ve supplied Alonso. 4 years $100M ought to work for each side. And inform boras to beat it.
3:06
: Will we see the free spending padres ever returning? I benefit from the SD/LA rivalry and hate seeing the padres must commerce off Stop or King and never signal any large free brokers
3:06
: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable
3:06
: the succession squabble there may be making every little thing very complicated
3:07
: however to be honest, the Padres are nonetheless working a reasonably large payroll for 2025
3:07
: ninth in baseball, second within the NLW
3:07
: that ought to make Giants followers VERY sad, btw
3:08
: will we see mlb growth quickly or will they use Nashville as ransom for extra tax payer funds in TB?
3:08
: por que no los dos
3:08
: A premise that underlies a few of the wage cap arguments is that groups ought to be worthwhile, which I’ve at all times questioned. Do you suppose the game will be wholesome if groups are money-losing toys for billionaires?
3:08
: I are inclined to agree, and likewise, a minimum of backward trying, these groups have all been outrageously gifted
3:09
: whoops, outrageously worthwhile
3:10
: I assume 6 years in the past the Mets ought to have stored Alonso within the minors for a number of weeks (or no matter it took) to maintain him from accruing that league 12 months of service time? I hear all of the ‘manipulating service time’ speak and I’ve to snort on the naivete.
3:10
: The Alonso one was kinda foolish, I agree, I assumed the Mets principally did effectively by him. However uh…. I don’t see how that has any bearing on the current
3:11
: like… they’d have extra leverage in the event that they’d behaved otherwise up to now, for positive
3:11
: that completely different habits would have been anti-competitive, making their staff worse on goal that 12 months
3:11
: Is Preller on the new seat if the Padres play .500 ball this 12 months?
3:11
: Looks as if the Cubs went for innings quantity by signing Boyd ($15 mil) and Rea ($5 mil), buying and selling for Pressly ($8.5 mil price). Would they’ve been higher served consolidating spend to 1 high-end pitcher?
3:11
: I appreciated their plan really
3:12
: I feel that the best way the market broke this 12 months, the perfect place to get pitching was the center
3:12
: I feel that in earlier years, they’ve gone that approach an excessive amount of. Jameson Taillon, whats up
3:12
: however this 12 months was an excellent 12 months to be in search of the center
3:12
: mike elias free company technique: signal all the previous cardinals outfielders
3:12
: Orioles offseason sufficient to repair postseason woes?
3:13
: I imply… .they didn’t do something, haha
3:13
: they’re undoubtedly worse than they have been in 2024
3:13
: I”m our offseason tracker right here, and yeah, Santander to TON is a downgrade, Burnes to Morton/Sugano is a downgrade, and uh….
3:13
: that’s it?
3:13
: in the event that they succeed, it gained’t be b/c of their offseason
3:13
: it’ll be b/c their staff has a ton of fine gamers that have been already on the roster
3:13
: Did you’ve gotten any ideas on the Purple Sox and Pirates swapping Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester final 12 months ? I noticed it as a problem commerce of men with down shares since their high 100 prospect days. However in his rating this morning Keith Regulation really had Yorke nonetheless within the mid 50s.
3:14
: I’ve some ideas, however I don’t suppose they’re particualrly sensible. I’m a giant Yorke man b/c he had an superior card in Out of the Park a number of years in the past
3:14
: and I’m down on Priester b/c I’ve pitching prospect fatigue
3:14
: Would you commerce King, Stop, and Arraez and use the commerce returns + financial savings to fill holes? If sure, the place would you spend the cash?
3:14
: I might commerce Arraez if there have been worth available
3:14
: I feel he’s a correctly compensated participant
3:15
: stable common, not a constant all star, spike-level All Star seasons seemingly. that’s what he’s getting paid
3:15
: however I feel groups principally agree with my valuation and thus there in all probability isn’t a house run deal available. If there have been no finances constraints, I’d mainly simply set excessive costs on my pitchers and see if groups get determined. And in any other case, roll with the prevailing squad, who have been fairly good in 2024
3:16
: Simply throwing on the market that Jameson Taillon tied Luis Castillo in WAR final 12 months. He’s not price that contract the following two years, however he’s been fantastic/
3:16
: I’m in all probability extra down on Taillon than is merited
3:16
: I’d clearly want Castillo however Taillon isn’t unhealthy
3:16
: I feel the difficulty is extra that the Cubs have been constantly aiming for hte center in free company for some time
3:16
: and he was a symptom
3:16
: it lined up with the market this 12 months
3:17
: however that is likely to be a damaged clock being proper two occasions a day sort of factor the place they at all times attempt to get the mid pitchers, and htis 12 months the mid pitchers are simply those I’d need
3:17
: Is it time to fret about Keibert Ruiz?
3:17
: No. That was 2023
3:17
: It’s time to surrender on Keibert Ruiz
3:17
: would Kjerstad, McDermott and a comp decide for Stop be honest for each groups?
3:18
: I don’t know sufficient about McDermott to say for positive however I feel it’s slightly gentle to my eyes
3:18
: however actually in the appropriate ballpark
3:19
: I is likely to be behind the occasions on McDermott, simply, a 26-year-old rookie with out outrageous numbers, I’m skeptical
3:19
: Bregman actually going again house?
3:19
: it’s gonna be bizarre if that’s the case
3:19
: the place does Paredes play?
3:20
: like, the Astros want outfielders badly
3:20
: it’s the weak level of their roster
3:20
: and so they…. traded away the most effective 5 outfielders in baseball, signed two infield nook guys, and are closing in on a 3rd
3:20
: possibly they suppose Yordan is an on a regular basis LF?
3:20
: Might the Larry Hen rule go the opposite approach? Small market groups get so as to add 10% in direction of minimal luxurious tax or one thing?
3:21
: I don’t fairly perceive how this may work…. we’re saying ‘hey Pirates, in the event you signal Paul Skenes, we’ll allow you to spend little or no cash on the remainder of the roster and never penalize you’?
3:21
: that looks as if a foul plan for everybody
3:21
: and one which no homeowners would actually get behind
3:21
: those who don’t desire a wage ground aren’t going to be mollified by the league saying ‘however in the event you signal stars to large contracts, we’ll allow you to ignore the ground slightly’
3:21
: they don’t signal stars to large contracts!
3:21
: How do you are feeling concerning the Nats’ rebuild post-Soto? Do you imagine of their rising younger core of Wooden, Crews, and so forth.?
3:22
: I’m into it for positive. Very very excessive on each Crews and Wooden. I feel that the true query is how they’re gonna transition from ‘now we have some enjoyable younger gamers on a really unhealthy staff’ to being good
3:23
: I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that they know the way to do this, and the Lerners are spending zero {dollars} on the staff proper now
3:23
: I don’t know if Arenado was grandstanding with the remark. He has the appropriate to invoke the no commerce and possibly didn’t wish to go to Houston. He may have been echoing the entrance workplace of their suggestions that alternatives he’s searching for aren’t there as of now, so might have to attend.
3:23
: oh, he undoubtedly does
3:23
: and he has the appropriate to publicly say he needs out after which invoke the no commerce clause
3:23
: that’s why he acquired the cluase
3:23
: I’m not saying he broke any guidelines… I’m simply saying it’d be humorous to see him say he needs to go, have the Playing cards discover a deal, after which not go
3:24
: The Astros signal Bregman then commerce Paredes to the Purple Sox. There will be no extra excellent match than Paredes, who hits nothing however flies to left in Fenway.
3:24
: the primary counterpoint is that possibly Houston is even higher for that profile, which is why they traded for him within the first pacde
3:24
: Any hesitation on Andres Munoz this 12 months?
3:24
: sure. Particularly, he’s a reliever
3:24
: Let’s say the Astros resign Bregman, transferring Paredes to 2B, Altuve to LF. How do you consider/quantify the worth of resigning Bregman contemplating he moved two gamers off their pure place? Even when Bregman is nice, it looks as if it could possibly be a web impartial
3:25
: fairly in depth query for a chat however briefly, I feel I’d do a sequence esitmation of how a lot every hurts the staff to play out of place
3:25
: I feel on this case it’d really be quite a bit. Altuve is declining defensively and studying a brand new place at his age is hard, a lot of his worth at second base is probably going instinctual
3:25
: Paredes at second? I might be overlaying my eyes, and I like Paredes
3:25
: I feel Paredes DH Yordan LF, or Paredes LF, makes extra sense
3:25
: significantly with the brief porch
3:26
: Matt, we’ve missed you
3:26
: Can we resolve all of the Astros hypotheticals and simply collectively buy, say, 10 million hot-and-ready pizzas so he can go to Detroit?
3:26
:
3:26
: Respect the feedback on Cardinals FO decision-making dynamics. A lot handwringing this offseason on ‘effectively who’s actually making the calls’ and it’s like, all of them lol. Like individuals could make joint choices, there will be delegation, there will be consensus and so forth.
3:26
: Yeah, I’m stunned individuals appear so shocked by this
3:26
: I heard the announcement and was ilke oh this is sensible to me
3:26
: Am I going to commerce for an outfielder or is MJ Melendez going to be the beginning LF for no good motive apart from inertia
3:27
: man…. I used to be first gonna say ‘however there’s no area for Melendez, who I feel is decen,t on the bench’
3:27
: uh, there may be
3:27
: that’s a dicey bench. so sure, you completely SHOULD
3:28
: and I feel that even when it’s a late-career veteran or reclamation venture, one thing will occur
3:28
: I imply sure he’s very uniquely formed
3:28
: double which means was intentional there
3:28
: Who will the Dodgers commerce to make room for Kirby?
3:28
: What slash line do you see Jacob Wilson producing in a full season?
3:28
: oh man…. I don’t have a robust prediction however my minor league mannequin (retired, bless its coronary heart) cherished him at each flip
3:29
: it was about predicting probabilities of sticking within the bigs and didn’t do translations or line projections, so ehhhh…undecided concerning the specifics
3:30
: I’d take the beneath on Steamer’s 120 wRC+, which might have him as mainly a perennial All Star, however possibly ZiPS and its 111 OPS+?
3:30
: That’s like a borderline All Star
3:30
: introduce a wage cap and cut back the reserve clause to 4 years; who would say no first, the homeowners or MLBPA?
3:30
: I feel that the reserve clause is a much bigger deal to them than the cap is to the gamers
3:30
: each side would say no, although
3:30
: Might you see the gamers union agreeing to a fifth tier of luxurious tax and an offseason two month signing freeze in favor of MLB including a twenty seventh roster spot? With trendy pitcher/catcher utilization and sluggish off season, these adjustments would profit all.
3:31
: I may. I don’t suppose that the league workplace would really like it, although. They’re attempting to battle towards the best way pitcher utilization is gonig, an additional roster spot is a bizarre approach to go about that
3:31
: Brewers could be an important commerce match for the Royals if they may line up. Yelich in all probability higher principally DH’ing now besides, Garrett Mitchell appears obtainable with Chourio, Frelick, and Perkins additionally filling out the depth chart.
3:31
: Yeah. I assume I don’t see what the Brewers need from the Royals that the Royals wish to commerce
3:31
: however I agree with the pondering
3:31
: The Yankees appear to have some religion in Volpe/Wells/Jasson taking leaps this 12 months, and possibly really feel the identical with Gil/Schmidt — whereas additionally getting a full season from Jazz, who hopefully stays wholesome. Yankee followers on-line bemoan the staff not matching $$ with LA — do you consider the staff as weirdly conservative with their spending limits, or do you see some sensibility of their planning? I want that they had yet another IF, however the Kim/Bregman/Arenado choices all appear fairly flawed….
3:32
: I feel that they’re being very long-term sensible at a time the place they’ve the perfect participant in baseball on the tail of his prime
3:32
: there’s a mismatch right here between how I understand the incentives (construct an important staff for 2025/2026, b/c you already know for positive that you’ve Aaron Choose playign nice) and the way they understand them (construct a long-term sustainable system by not taking over any unhealthy dangers)
3:33
: if I’m proper, their habits is inaccurate b/c they’re not bunching up their surplus worth within the years the place they’ve an important staff. in the event that they’re proper, effectively, they’re proper
3:33
: Good joke. I really feel like Choose is far likelier to have a Chipper or Ortiz again half the place he simply hits however misses 40 g a 12 months than immediately turns into unhealthy
3:33
: the man is simply an elite hitter even in the event you ignore the outlier energy
3:33
: his command of the strike zone has advanced impressively
3:34
: alright, this was a VERY dense hour and a half of chatting, and I nonetheless left round 60 questions on the bench
3:34
: that was actually enjoyable, although, let’s do this once more someday
3:34
: thanks a lot for popping out and chatting in the present day, everybody
3:34
: and now that we acquired Matt Damon again, I’m simply hoping for the man who asks the lunch query to return as effectively
3:34
: Have a beautiful week, and I’ll speak to you once more quickly
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
