2:01
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
2:01
: Let’s simply dive proper in
2:02
: What main change to baseball could have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and many others)?
2:02
: Variety of fielders, perhaps? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, after all
2:02
: Who would you relatively guess on panning out? A prospect who must decrease his Ok charge by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB charge by 5-10%?
2:03
: It is dependent upon different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly desire the man who hits too many grounders. Research after research exhibits that hitters who’re placing out a ton within the low minors simply can not play on the main league degree on the whole
2:03
: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout charge. However truthfully, it’s a kind of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ is dependent upon what degree all else is equal at
2:03
: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “We now have an possession group able to pay billions for an growth crew AND the town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?
2:03
: surprisingly, I don’t suppose so
2:04
: I simply suppose the journey can be too onerous
2:05
: They clearly perceive how robust it’s the approach they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play brief sequence. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each sequence might be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some sort
2:05
: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about really placing a crew there completely
2:05
: Appears protected to imagine the Phillies are a playoff crew this 12 months. What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff recreation vs a proper handed pitcher?
2:06
: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl
2:07
: I can not think about Castellanos within the discipline given how he’s taking part in
2:07
: I do know that they’re speaking about taking part in Sosa within the outfield too at occasions, so perhaps you possibly can have him over Dahl or Rojas?
2:08
: What do you suppose is inflicting the Braves’ YOY house run decline? Their barrel charge/laborious hit remains to be wonderful however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this degree out or is there one thing systemic?
2:08
: I feel a few of it’s gonna degree out, although a few of it’s that they had been unsustainably scorching final 12 months
2:08
: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the 12 months
2:08
: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the affect a couple of subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who offered however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have a much bigger affect than particular person gamers.
2:09
: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:
2:09
: However I appeared into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, they usually carry out worse than you’d anticipate based mostly on a Depth Charts rendering of their ability degree
2:10
: How would you suppose a Gunnar extension would examine to Witt’s or Riley’s?
2:10
: I feel it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ executed a deep dive to get extra exact than that
2:10
: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and many others.–might this be probably the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?
2:11
: Properly, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even if you happen to don’t), sure
2:11
: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman
2:11
: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s a much bigger star than anybody listed her
2:11
: but when all these guys went, certain
2:11
: I do suppose that the Jays are gonna have lots to say about how the commerce deadline goes
2:12
: and the White Sox perhaps too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a package deal greater than what WAS obtained for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which in my view makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect
2:12
: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds wonderful
2:13
: Then again…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23
2:13
: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} crew would supply that a lot
2:13
: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis position?
2:14
: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis position is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’
2:15
: if you happen to have a look at his previous few weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one folks getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor
2:15
: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan
2:16
: it’s simply cut up everywhere
2:16
: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you take pleasure in watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched loads of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, if you happen to might watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it had been a tennis match, which means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics may be mentioned later), who would you prefer to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.
2:16
: Oh man, what a match yesterday
2:16
: I missed the ladies’s ultimate, but it surely seems that was advantageous b/c Swiatek is simply too good
2:16
: however the males’s ultimate was nice
2:17
: deGrom is half of mine for certain
2:17
: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil
2:17
: I by no means obtained to see Willie Mays play so he’s in all probability my choose although
2:17
: or perhaps you do one per period
2:17
: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd
2:17
: Am I on a scorching streak or have I figured some issues out?
2:17
: por que no los dos?
2:18
: I’m perpetually gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary faculty baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was one of the best hitter in a era (sure, my park components might need been off)
2:20
: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact scorching streak, however that his strategy of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice
2:20
: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase charge just a little, which makes me suppose a tailwind in walks and favorable counts might offset a babip slide
2:20
: Implausible enhancements to the participant pages – move alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!
2:20
: I’ve allow them to know
2:21
: and yeah it’s nice!
2:21
: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!
Properly, apart from Aaron Decide… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that droop.
2:21
: Looks as if groups which can be profitable typically follow replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m considering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies as an illustration, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to profitable groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal achieve in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?
2:21
: It is a actually laborious query
2:22
: I feel that on the whole groups would in all probability be higher off in the event that they moved on quicker than they really do, however much less rapidly than followers suppose they need to
2:22
: The rationale for that’s {that a} false optimistic right here hurts extra
2:22
: like, shifting somebody once they weren’t really cooked
2:22
: Is Mike Elias one of the best GM in MLB? If not, who’s?
2:22
: I’ve to provide it to Alex Anthopoulos
2:23
: I imply, full respect to Elias
2:23
: I’ve written a TON about O’s determination making up to now two years becuase they’ve had loads of fascinating selections
2:23
: and whereas Elias and co in all probability began out as being just a little too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably
2:23
: clearly, their dev/acquisition crew is unbelievable as effectively
2:24
: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. But it surely’s simply laborious to knock what the Braves preserve doing
2:24
: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?
2:24
: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time
2:24
: Tatis Jr. has been wanting higher recently…do you suppose he ever will get again to 2021 type?
2:24
: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable
2:24
: the man is only a spectacular athlete
2:25
: i don’t suppose he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t suppose anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation
2:25
: however when it comes to being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and wonderful protection/baserunning to associate with it, sure
2:25
: Is it reasonable to presume that Alonso could be satisfactory in a nook OF and subsequently have much more TV to contenders?
2:25
: I hate to say it, however no
2:26
: I don’t purchase that he might deal with a nook outfield spot
2:26
: a)it’d need to be left, b)I nonetheless suppose it’d be Hoskins-esque
2:26
: What do you suppose has been one of the best free agent contract of greater than 100 million? Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m certain I’m forgetting some good candidates.
2:27
: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is definitely within the operating. A Rod and Harper are good ones
2:27
: I’m wanting via a listing proper now
2:28
: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer in all probability will get my vote for the general finest
2:28
: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.
2:29
:
2:29
: SHOTA. IMANAGA.
2:29
: If gamers beneath 5’7″ obtained an additional strike, would Altuve be one of the best participant in baseball?
2:29
: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna turn out to be extra helpful because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?
2:29
: Slightly. However I feel pitchers can even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, principally simply specialize extra
2:29
: so their most important edge might be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less
2:29
: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?
2:30
: I feel the O’s will find yourself profitable it, really, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters
2:30
: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be one of the best hitter in a era out of school as effectively haha
2:30
: I imply his stats had been so outrageous that even once you regulate for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they had been nonetheless otherworldly
2:30
: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.
2:30
: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t need to watch this
2:30
: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a 12 months, together with all his time in school. Would that meaningfully cut back his commerce worth for a contender trying to purchase him this 12 months?
2:32
: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….
2:32
: Re: finest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally wanting good to date.
2:32
: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?
2:32
: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat
2:32
: boy, I really don’t know if I can repair that
2:32
: So, Ben… are you continue to apprehensive about Jose Ramirez?
2:33
: as a substitute, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel
2:34
: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has one of the best likelihood to dethrone one in all them?
2:35
: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?
2:35
: somebody might get scorching within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t identify
2:35
: So Aaron Decide…. how is that this doable? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+) once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this degree of hitter? Is he one of the best since Bonds?
2:35
: So, I’m doing a undertaking for tomorrow the place I graph completely different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle
2:35
: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and many others.
2:35
: Decide’s graph is simply ludicrous
2:36
: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air
2:36
: what a monswer
2:36
: Do you suppose Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 recreation energy grade? He’s solely 22 but it surely simply looks like he can by no means carry the ball.
2:37
: nah, I don’t. I do actually suppose he has 80 uncooked although
2:37
: I’ve been fascinated with your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to anticipate a lot from them. I imply I’m certain there are all the time counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 exhibits that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise
Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs obtained the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was taking part in effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had loads of good prospects on the time)
Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski beneath the caliber of prospects you had been contemplating?
Additionally in all probability value noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so could dissuade comparable conduct from different groups
2:38
: Wesneski was undoubtedly beneath the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time
2:38
: I’m wanting over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction
2:38
: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system
2:39
: so like, perhaps I’m utilizing the fallacious prospect grades? However I feel that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who out of the blue gained velo after being drafted
2:39
: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?
2:39
: I don’t suppose so
2:39
: When are you planning on being good if you happen to preserve buying and selling your good gamers?
2:39
: if the jays find yourself really buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Making an attempt to determine who in competition wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?
2:40
: I undoubtedly suppose that they’re taking part in him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t suppose a giant deal is gonna get executed, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that helpful on the deadline
2:40
: so there’s this bizarre scenario the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ can be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers
2:41
: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the degree he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a kind of lifetime achievement award.
2:41
: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis
2:41
: it’s loopy that he by no means gained it
2:41
: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?
2:42
: Simply that loads of these guys haven’t appeared almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did a fantastic job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they obtained Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, roughly
2:42
: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears
2:42
: they did the identical for Soto
2:43
: and I feel in loads of these circumstances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d anticipate, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’
2:43
: Ben, how outdated is the pre recreation win chance mannequin as proven within the Reside Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to boost predictions?
2:44
: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based mostly on the posted recreation lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)
2:44
: Wheeler must be proper behind Scherzer on one of the best free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his identify talked about
2:44
: Just a few different folks pointed him out, and yeah
2:44
: he undoubtedly counts
2:44
: If Scherzer is one of the best free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.
2:45
: Oh, certainly not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly obtained loads of insurance coverage funds again
2:45
: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump? Each time he seems like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth. The protection has been inconsistent. What’s your tackle his future?
2:45
: man…. I nonetheless suppose he’ll
2:45
: regardless of having been fallacious about this particular factor many occasions
2:45
: I completely imagine in Seiya
2:46
: and he appeared like he figured all of it out on the finish of final 12 months, after which nope
2:46
: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that
2:46
: however I believed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant drawback
2:46
: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, principally
2:46
: leaguewide OPS common is beneath 700….time to panic or not but?
2:46
: Yeah I’m panicking
2:46
: baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs
2:47
: I believed the Nats had been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract resulting from his harm historical past
2:47
: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past
2:47
: effectively that makes it worse!
2:48
: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting might be probably very flawed. The method of accounting for the appropriate variety of PA’s awarded to every crew based mostly upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting crew goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single recreation towards a beneath common pitching crew than their season common), this stuff trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any thought you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?
2:48
: Let’s simply say that’s low on our record, the positioning has had a ton of cool enhancements lately however I feel revamping our recreation odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them they usually do alright) so as to add just a little isn’t highest precedence
2:48
: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a generally helper
2:48
: however I’d guess there are a lot of issues we’d repair earlier than that
2:49
: Unironically I need MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we had been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a very enjoyable time for baseball
2:49
: Is there a abstract someplace on the positioning of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch data/SIS)?
2:49
: can there be a abstract of the completely different sources of plate disciple metrics
2:49
: There isn’t however I can provide you one right here
2:49
: they measure the strike zone barely otherwise
2:49
: that’s the entire completely different
2:50
: % likelihood Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most certainly to get him?
2:50
: I simply have it very low
2:50
: thanks for answering my butchered query. Is yet one more correct? SIS zone appears waaaay completely different
2:50
: I dunno, truthfully! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to simply use Statcast these daysb/c generally I’m pulling information instantly from Savant
2:50
: i’ve seen a conspiracy idea that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far
2:51
: I might completely see that
2:52
: Relating to the low league vast OPS, what are your most well-liked approaches/options on learn how to enhance it?
2:53
: I need extra vigorous baseballs. I’d prefer to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier recreation
2:53
: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats obtained little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)
2:53
: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and many others) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re supposed to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re really generally much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would inform you would really occurred, a very unhealthy mannequin would haven’t any foundation in actuality). That looks like loads of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re really helpful. I additionally take excessive problem with some charge stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as a substitute of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who minimize their Ok% for often weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA
2:54
: Dan did one thing on this
2:54
: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All had been good!
2:54
: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday
2:54
: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad they usually had been abysmal
2:54
: “baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs”: And it turned private for me (observe: that is what Jordan really mentioned)
2:54
: 
2:55
: alright, I’m doing a little caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll speak to you once more subsequent week
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
