2:02
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:02
part 34: Who’s the most effective beginning pitcher prone to be accessible and which prospects should the Orioles deal to get him?
2:02
Ben Clemens: I imply, the BEST? Crochet
2:02
Ben Clemens: I feel the White Sox are going to desire a haul, although, and rightly so
2:03
Ben Clemens: He’s an fascinating case, I’ve been doing lots of due diligence on mover and shaker kind pitchers for the commerce worth listing
2:03
Ben Clemens: coming at you on the finish of the month, and so forth
2:04
Ben Clemens: I’m actually not fairly certain what to do with guys like him, Skubal, principally the folks in Dan’s article as we speak
2:04
Ben Clemens: so okay, Skubal and Crochet are each free brokers after the 2026 season
2:05
Ben Clemens: we expect they’ll each be glorious over these years
2:05
Ben Clemens: like, 8-ish WAR in 2.5 years, that’s a fairly good projection for a pitcher
2:06
Ben Clemens: but additionally… by the identical projections, Coby Mayo, for instance, is at 8 for these years
2:06
Ben Clemens: I’d commerce Mayo for both of these dudes
2:06
Ben Clemens: however I’m struggling to wrap my head round how the league will behave
2:06
Matt VW: Which fringe-ish pre-Statcast period participant do you want we had the brand new numbers on? I need Wily Mo Pena exit velocities.
2:07
Ben Clemens: We’ve talked about this one earlier than, and sure, it’s Wily Mo after which I might love bat monitoring on Bonds
2:07
Ben Clemens: his homers per swing bought so ludicrous at his steroid-aided peak
2:07
Ben Clemens: like, it might simply be a spectacle
2:07
Stephen: So Volpe appears to be a median hitter up to now (sizzling begin and trending down in the direction of 100 wRC+, not nice statcast sliders). How assured are you that he’ll turn into a superb hitter?
2:08
Ben Clemens: I’m above common assured that he’ll find yourself within the 100-120 wRC+ vary
2:08
Ben Clemens: which is nice for a plus defensive shortstop
2:08
Ben Clemens: I feel there’s little or no debate on that entrance, btw
2:08
Ben Clemens: baserunning and protection dude with marginally plus hitting, he’s like Lindor Lite
2:09
Ben Clemens: works for me!
2:09
bigtimetimmyjim: giants homestand regarded good! I really feel just like the ahmed properly center infield combo is healthier than the properly estrada proper now, any ideas on that?
2:09
Ben Clemens: I used to be at two of the video games and watched many of the relaxation, feeling very Giants-y of late
2:09
Ben Clemens: man, that is robust
2:09
Ben Clemens: unusually i really feel just like the one it’s a must to play is Correctly?
2:10
Ben Clemens: the otehr two can’t hit
2:10
Ben Clemens: i would want Correctly SS Estrada 2B although
2:10
Ben Clemens: I can’t fairly discuss myself into Ahmed
2:10
Nate: Is Paul Skenes a high 10 pitcher but
2:10
Visitor: Any hope that the Nats may signal Soto?
2:10
Ben Clemens: I hope that is Cheng, in that case hello
2:10
Ben Clemens: if not, although…. I imply, it’s inside the realm of risk
2:11
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume it’s possible, nevertheless it will get much more possible if the Yankees do worse than anticipated adn the Nats have a loopy good second half
2:11
Kevin: What have you learnt or think about groups may be doing with synthetic intelligence instruments? Have you ever heard of anybody digging in to this subject?
2:11
Ben Clemens: There was a very good collection on rising velo within the Athletic final week
2:11
Ben Clemens: I’d extremely suggest studying that
2:12
Ben Clemens: I’m undecided to what extent that is mirrored throughout the sport however they’d some interviews with the Driveline people speaking about utilizing AI to attempt to develop optimized pitching mechanics
2:12
Princess Leia: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!
Begin Bregman or Massive Royce Lewis in a H2H factors this week?
And is it time to chop Carroll for Wyatt Langford in the identical league?
2:12
Ben Clemens: I couldn’t minimize Carroll, however I’d strat Royce I feel
2:12
Vladdy G: Vladdy minimize his hair on June 19 and is slashing 409/435/932 with 6 HR and a wRC+ of 282 since then. If he shaved his head fully, what would these numbers seem like?
2:12
Ben Clemens: I’m guessing… 282 wRC+
2:13
Ben Clemens: Vladdy Samson is a enjoyable story, although
2:13
Ben Clemens: I’m rooting for it to maintain going
2:13
Datt Mamon: Heliot Ramos – actual, sustainable, and so forth.?
2:13
Ben Clemens: I wrote about him final week (I feel? perhaps two weeks in the past)
2:14
Ben Clemens: Primarily I feel that it’s on the entire actual, I feel he’s made some significant changes since his prospect star light
2:14
Ben Clemens: I do assume that he’s going to undergo some rising pains, although, b/c primarily he’s labored out a superb adjustment that’s getting him forward in counts
2:14
Ben Clemens: however pitchers will most likely toss stuff new at him
2:14
DBRuns: Cleveland’s catchers rank 2nd in MLB in WAR (large shock, to me). Is {that a} results of counting all 211 of David Fry’s PAs in the direction of catcher WAR? Or are solely these PA/innings behind the plate counted?
2:14
Ben Clemens: okay so, I don’t see that?
2:14
Ben Clemens: right here’s our leaderboard with positional cut up ‘as C’
2:15
Ben Clemens: it has cleveland tenth, with 57 PA and 1 WAR from Fry there
2:15
Ben Clemens: ah yeah, use ‘positional cut up’ and never ‘main place’
2:15
Ben Clemens: if you wish to solely rely after they’re on the spot
2:16
Ben Clemens: we’ve each so that you simply don’t need to do dumb issues like have a look at the listing of catcher WAR and have adley lacking b/c he DH’s
2:16
Ben Clemens: however I like utilizing positional cut up once I’m groups
2:16
Damaged Bat: It certain does get messy when your staff underperforms for a number of straight years… So the present main underachievers appear to be the Jays and Cubs. They each have their GM’s in place for a number of years, and Each groups have had some accidents however IMO the basis chase of steady frustration is roster building. I think about each GM’s really feel the warmth. They’re between a rock and a tough place. How do both or each of them salvage something by staying the course and never buying and selling for prospects or buying and selling for the prospects. It virtually looks as if each of them regardless are useless males strolling. Profitable, is that the one factor that can,preserve,Atkins or Hoyer employable as GM?
2:16
Ben Clemens: employable as a GM? I don’t actually assume so
2:17
Ben Clemens: folks appear to be extra re-employable than I’d anticipate
2:17
Ben Clemens: that stated, I feel that solely profitable can repair each of those conditions. if the Cubs lurch again right into a rebuild, why would you retain Hoyer? And the Jays put collectively this grand decade-long plan and nicely, if it doesn’t bear fruit, perhaps somebody new ought to take the helm
2:18
Ben: Are there any sensible consumers for Lane Thomas?
2:18
Ben Clemens: i believe so, however I feel the market is gonna be fairly gentle
2:18
Ben Clemens: I’m avoiding particular commerce proposals in as we speak’s chat, b/c we’re gonna do sufficient of these as we get later into July
2:18
Ben Clemens: however I feel that Thomas has simply gotten too near the tip of staff management to be an enormous commerce piece
2:19
Ben Clemens: and he’s enjoying virtually solely within the nook, now, so there are lots of these sorts with higher bats accessible
2:19
War2D2: The Cubs appear to only be a foul staff at this level. What would you do in case you had been of their sneakers? They’ve a deep farm system with lots of 45FVs, however not lots of 55FVs. Would you empty a few of it out for a Mason Miller/Robert Jr./and so forth “large” transfer, or dump guys like Cody Bellinger and different short-term property for…extra 45FV guys? I assume? Looks as if they’re each in an honest place, and in addition not one to simply transfer out of.
2:19
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d simply keep the course, to be trustworthy
2:19
Ben Clemens: I don’t actually assume that making a giant transfer is smart, though I suppose Robert may change my thoughts on that
2:20
Ben Clemens: I feel that one factor that groups who haven’t put all of it collectively but under-appreciate is that having a giant mass of fine however not nice prospects will increase the probabilities of a breakout someplace
2:20
Ben Clemens: in the event that they fall fully out of the race, certain commerce leases for some prospects which are’nt on the 40
2:21
Ben Clemens: however eh, I truly like the general building of the Cubs org
2:21
War2D2: re: Statcast for oldy-old instances, I’d need Statcast on historic fireballers like Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan. Joe Posnanski made daring claims in his “Baseball 100” that he thought Satchel Paige was throwing 100+, and I’m guessing it’s extra just like the league was throwing 80 and he was throwing 90 and it regarded like 100.
2:21
Ben Clemens: yeah! I used to be pondering extra folks inside my lifetime
2:21
Ben Clemens: Rickey Henderson dash velocity
2:21
Ben Clemens: Babe Ruth exit velo, the break on Sweet Cummings, the inventor of the curveball
2:21
wheelhouse: how for much longer do i’ve to look at anthony volpe, leadoff hitter? and whose job was it to listen to him say “I’m gonna flatten my swing to hit the ball on the bottom extra” and never strap him to the Clockwork Orange rig with movies of Alex Bregman till he recants?
2:21
Ben Clemens: oh man, now THIS take I agree with wholeheartedly
2:22
Ben Clemens: Volpe might be at his greatest if his offense tendencies in a Bregman course
2:22
Ben Clemens: that’s not a leadoff hitter
2:22
ResumeMan: Been to any Ballers video games? We’ve been to 2 and it was good enjoyable (although would most likely be much more enjoyable if we may hit a sport that wasn’t a blowout loss…)
2:22
Ben Clemens: No, however I’m planning on it later this summer season
2:23
Ben Clemens: Going to a Stompers sport in July too
2:23
bosoxforlife: Has Jackson Merrill moved forward within the NL ROY? I simply watched him tear the Pink Sox aside and was astonished by how good he’s.
2:23
Ben Clemens: So, sure, nevertheless it’s going to rely closely on Skenes
2:23
Ben Clemens: and Yamamoto, obv, however I feel particularly Skenes
2:23
Ben Clemens: there’s additionally that entire you’re by no means pretty much as good as you have a look at your smartest thing
2:24
Ben Clemens: Merrill’s energy has been a shock
2:24
Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that he’s gonna stick with it, however I’ve been very impressed by the bat to ball
2:24
Ben Clemens: which I used to be alleged to be impressed by, in fact
2:24
Pirates: Why did the Pirates DFA a damaged, however serviceable Roansy Contreras, then change him on the staff with absolutely the worst from the waiver wire? GMBC says they’re betting on pitch traits they like. Are the traits how the rainbow shot seems off the opposite groups bat? Marvel at this stat line, Ben Heller: 2 IP, 49.50 ERA (14.16 FIP), **20 TBF**
2:24
Ben Clemens: I actually don’t know
2:24
Ben Clemens: I used to be stunned they gave up on Contreras within the rotation, not to mention general
2:25
Derek: To not be overly pedantic (truly, exactly to be overly pedantic), that is actually Vladdy Nega-Samson – his hair was holding him again, not giving him energy!
2:25
Ben Clemens: Oh wow yeah, glorious level
2:25
Ben Clemens: dunno why I assumed that manner
2:26
bdubs: Two gamers who got here out of nowhere this 12 months: India and Josh Smith. Which is extra prone to preserve it going ROS? The Fangraph projections tilt in the direction of Smith however love India’s residence park. You?
2:27
Ben Clemens: if we’re speaking fantasy worth, I’m on India, however truthfully each face some enjoying time crunches and I’d most likely be trying to deal both if somebody was
2:27
Ben Clemens: Matt McLain clearly deserves a spot in Cincy, and he’ll get one
2:28
Ben Clemens: it’s gonna lead to a jam, I’m not saying India will get pinched but when he struggles time will dry up
2:29
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s not fairly as dangerous on teh Rangers however the issue with Smith is that realistically, you’re relying on his protection to provide you a ground on his worth given his slap hitting tendencies
2:29
Ben Clemens: So when Josh Jung comes again….
2:29
Ben Clemens: like, are the Rangers actually gonna run out Smith in an outfield nook?
2:30
Ben Clemens: that’s principally the place they’ve availability. I feel they are going to. However I fear that if he will get chilly, he’ll flip right into a platoon man quick
2:31
Oaktown Blues: Jacob Wilson has a .411 cumulative minor league BA. He batted .455 in AA, bought a promotion, and is batting .447 in AAA (ISO over .200 at each ranges). Scouts assume he’ll keep at SS. Shouldn’t this man be getting extra high prospect hype?
2:32
Ben Clemens: trying by means of his statcast stuff now
2:33
Ben Clemens: I imply, it’s a matter of diploma, it appears to me
2:33
Ben Clemens: we’ve him as a high 100 man, second within the system behind Miller (so #1 now)
2:33
Ben Clemens: similar with mlb.com
2:34
Ben Clemens: I feel the rationale he’s not getting like completely shoved is that he has actually low uncooked energy
2:35
Ben Clemens: there’s simply not quite a bit there by way of loud contact. however he’s additionally solely 51 PA into his triple-a profession
2:36
Ben Clemens: in order that’s extraordinarily early to say something
2:36
Ben Clemens: I’ll say, I’m typically in on these bat management no-Ok guys, and I predictably actually like Wilson
2:36
Ben Clemens: however he must hit some extra bombs if I’m gonna put him on the VERY high of the listing
2:36
MilwakeeBeerjays: Hey Ben. What’s your favorite dinosaur?
2:36
Ben Clemens: nice query, BeerJays
2:36
Ben Clemens: it’s a stegosaurus
2:37
Ben Clemens: I actually like these dorsal spines, and I like that (as of once I cared extra about dinosaurs, no less than) we didn’t actually know what they had been for
2:37
Ben Clemens: love a bit thriller
2:37
War2D2: Rickey already know what Rickey’s dash velocity was. FAST. Rickey already know he quick.
2:37
Oddball Herrera: So right here’s the factor with Ramos out of your article, and I feel it brings up an fascinating common query. At any time when I see a man who has carried out an strategy change, I fear that he’s merely “ambushing” pitchers, and people pitchers will finally modify (see Ramos’ final two weeks). On the spectrum of “breakout/sustainability indicators” there are a bunch of stats I’d be extra snug with than a “I’m going to begin swinging at first pitches” kind change, which looks as if it’d vulnerable to turning right into a sport of whack-a-mole
2:38
Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I imply I feel that’s at all times price enthusiastic about
2:38
Ben Clemens: I’d flip it on you, htough
2:38
Ben Clemens: to me, what was occurring is that pitchers had been ambushing Ramos
2:38
Ben Clemens: flip in a curveball and get forward to use his swing and miss tendencies with out having to problem him within the zone to get forward
2:38
Ben Clemens: b/c they only assumed he wouldn’t swing
2:39
Ben Clemens: now he’s forcing them to pitch him straight up, with out the little cheat code gentle curve
2:39
Ben Clemens: now, he bought a lot of these cheapie hits off of these, don’t get me flawed
2:39
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that half is sustainable, they’re not gonna preserve lobbing them in there
2:40
Ben Clemens: however I feel he’s a fairly good hitter when he’s getting pitched straight up. His type of hitter does quite a bit higher forward within the rely than behind, and groups had been preying on that early in his profession
2:40
Ben Clemens: it’s not like he’s simply blindly hacking at first pitches
2:40
Ben Clemens: he’s simply going up there pondering that if he sees one thing gentle and excessive, he’s gonna take a giant rip
2:41
Ben Clemens: truthfully I feel that extra hitters ought to do one thing concerning the in-zone gentle breaking ball for strike one development
2:41
Half Road: Ideas on James Wooden?
2:41
Unusual Angel: I’m certain it’s been requested, however what’s your ground/ceiling expectation for James Wooden this season and long-term?
2:42
Ben Clemens: Oh man, a lot of James Wooden questions as we speak, as there ought to be
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m very hyped
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m extraordinarily Group Wooden, I bought ridiculed for having him as my high prospect subsequent 12 months
2:43
Ben Clemens: and perhaps ridiculed is powerful, however a lot of derisive feedback
2:43
Ben Clemens: I’m not a giant ground ceiling man
2:43
Ben Clemens: however how about latter-day Joey Gallo ground, Tyler O’Neill median, Aaron Decide ceiling
2:44
Ben Clemens: I’m actually into it, and I feel that guys like Wooden are the sorts of prospects who flip into generational gamers
2:44
Ben Clemens: not at all times, clearly
2:44
sonny: The issue with turning Volpe into Bregman is that he tried that, it didn’t work. Individuals underestimate how laborious it’s to be a RH pull hitter in Yankee Stadium. Have a look at the ghost of Josh Donaldson for what it seems like while you promote out for pull energy and also you’re not Stanton/Decide robust.
2:45
Ben Clemens: I disagree with that
2:45
Ben Clemens: Yankee Stadium persistently has excessive HR park components for righty hitters
2:46
Ben Clemens: and that’s not some fluke of Decide enjoying there and on the street, it holds true when he’s not enjoying, and so forth.
2:47
Ben Clemens: like… Donaldson left and went to Milwaukee and was nonetheless dangerous
2:47
Ben Clemens: the factor that occurred to him is that he bought previous
2:47
MilwakeeBeerjays: RE: Dinosaurs
2:47
MilwakeeBeerjays: Scales or feathers?
2:47
Ben Clemens: You recognize, scales in my head. Though I do know they’re extra prone to be feathers
2:48
Ben Clemens: you possibly can’t erase my childhood view of issues
2:48
metsetradio: With two positions conceivably up for grabs subsequent 12 months for the Mets (2nd and third) What do you do with all of those infield prospects in case you’re David Stearns (Mauricio, Baty, Vientos, Jett, Acuna, and so forth)? Who’re you trying to preserve and who’re you buying and selling for pitching?
2:48
Ben Clemens: what I might do is preserve all of them till no less than one establishes himself within the majors
2:48
Ben Clemens: presumably two
2:49
Ben Clemens: principally I just like the implied optionality worth you get from having a bunch of fairly good prospects
2:49
Ben Clemens: if they’d a single extremely elite dude I’d be extra all for dealing from my surplus
2:49
Ben Clemens: however I feel this can be a energy in numbers state of affairs
2:49
Visitor: It’s not prone to occur, however how enjoyable would a Dodgers Rays mega deal be? Dodgers get Paredes, Caballero, and Palacio, and Rays get Lux, Outman, Vargas, and a few mixture of catching and pitching prospects (Speeding, Cartaya, Wrobeleski, Damage, Frasso). Dodgers get long run help at 3B and SS, the place they don’t actually have too many inner choices, and the Rays get future upgrades at positions they don’t actually have prospects for and get a pair gamers who’ve had current success that they will flip in the event that they begin to hit once more.
2:50
Ben Clemens: This sounds very fascinating, and I offer you kudos for the commerce building. Everybody on each side is each very Dodgers-y and really Rays-y
2:51
Ben Clemens: Um…. I imply for me it’d be very enjoyable
2:51
Ben Clemens: I really like MANY of those gamers
2:52
Ben Clemens: I feel that the Dodgers most likely don’t want Palacios sufficient to make this deal occur, and my sense from speaking to folks throughout the trade is that even now, groups usually are not bought on Paredes
2:52
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna get much less pushback once I ship my listing out this 12 months b/c I’m lastly not going to ship it out with Paredes within the high 50, haha
2:52
Ben Clemens: though truthfully perhaps I nonetheless ought to
2:53
Ben Clemens: he simply continues to mash
2:53
Ben Clemens: however principally, I feel to make this commerce the Dodgers need to worth Paredes extra extremely than I feel they do
2:53
Unusual Angel: Random thought on that Rays-Dodgers commerce, how a lot worse is Paredes within the bigger Dodger stadium? It looks as if his success relies on pulled XBHs that wouldn’t essentially work in a much bigger stadium
2:53
Ben Clemens: rational motive to not commerce for him
2:53
Large Gonzales: After a 12 months and a half of doing this, has Jarren Duran established himself as a MLB beginning OF, who presumably will get an All Star nod this 12 months? Older prospect who revamped his swing throughout covid and struggled with going up/all the way down to AAA afterwards, he’s been an enormous motive BOS continues to be hanging within the playoff image this 12 months.
2:54
Ben Clemens: fully established
2:54
Ben Clemens: ZiPS is skeptical about him…. and thinks he’s a legit beginning outfielder with upside
2:55
Ben Clemens: I may see him perhaps getting an AS nod this 12 months, he’s been electrical
2:55
DJ Tofu: What do you assume is a good commerce for the Giants to get Coby Mayo?
2:55
Ben Clemens: I dunno, this doesn’t sound like a factor that might occur
2:55
Ben Clemens: the Giants are the precise sort of staff that don’t line up nicely with the O’s
2:55
Ben Clemens: they’re like a model of Baltimore turned down 10%
2:55
Ben Clemens: no large roster holes however not sufficient distinction makers
2:56
Ben Clemens: just like the Giants’ greatest commerce chips are Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey
2:56
Ben Clemens: however they aren’t buying and selling these guys
2:57
Ben Clemens: and I don’t assume you may make a deal round Camilo Doval that is smart
2:57
Ben Clemens: so I simply don’t see a match right here
2:57
Pat: Skubal for Jackson Holliday- Who says No?
2:57
Ben Clemens: Sizzling take: the O’s say no, however they shouldn’t
2:58
Ben Clemens: Holliday’s line within the minors in June is SO bizarre
2:58
Ben Clemens: .444 OBP, .378 SLG
2:59
Ben Clemens: wtf is occurring right here, you realize?
2:59
Ben Clemens: since coming again down he’s hitting .252/.425/.421, and I simply don’t assume these stroll expertise are clearly gonna play
2:59
Ben Clemens: within the majors
2:59
Ben Clemens: 23% stroll price, i imply….
2:59
Ben Clemens: I dunno I’m nonetheless very optimistic
3:00
Ben Clemens: however I don’t assume he’s a surefire all star, and Skubal is true now
3:00
Ben Clemens: I acknowledge that this places me in an odd spot as an evaluator
3:00
Ben Clemens: Should you’re counting anticipated WAR, even in case you do some non-linear formed stuff to make avearge gamers much less worthwhile and stars higher, Holliday simply tops Skubal
3:00
Ben Clemens: however I simply don’t assume it performs that manner in actual life
3:00
MilwakeeBeerjays: It’s gotta be feathers proper? Jurassic Park, whereas being one of many probably the most entertaining films ever, has pushed the scaled agenda for years. Do your *RESEARCH* folks.
3:01
Ben Clemens: Look, it’s virtually definitely feathers. Simply, scales regarded so cool in all my youngsters’ books
3:01
Ben Clemens: that stated, my theoretical future baby might be getting the proper modern-day information from me in order that htey don’t develop up dwelling a lie like I did
3:01
Hunter: Let’s say Spencer Torkelson comes again up after the all star break and principally reproduces his second half from final 12 months (120ish WRC+, 25ish HRs). What would you do with him?
3:01
Ben Clemens: I’d give him one other shot however with a very quick leash
3:01
Ben Clemens: er, nicely, no, 25 bombs after the ASB is wild
3:02
Ben Clemens: he had 19 final 12 months it seems like
3:02
Ben Clemens: I’m…. I’m fairly out on Tork to be trustworthy
3:03
Ben Clemens: I assumed Dan’s article about him was superb
3:03
Dan: When a pitcher adjustments their supply and to a lessor extent when a hitter adjustments his swing it surprises me they’re as profitable as they’re. Isn’t a big a part of why they’re profitable that they’ve observe the pitch/swing tons of of hundreds of instances? It not like you possibly can simply inform a world class athlete (from one other sport) learn how to swing a bat and anticipate them to be aggressive on the MLB stage.
3:04
Ben Clemens: I’ve thought of this quite a bit
3:04
Ben Clemens: and I feel that the important thing right here is that MOST of the issues they’re doing with the brand new supply or swing are the identical
3:04
Ben Clemens: and that actually, the most effective coaches do a very good job of retaining the necessary elements constant
3:06
Ben Clemens: so like…. perhaps you modify your arm slot barely however the swing and the followthrough really feel so related that it’s effective
3:06
Ben Clemens: I feel that elite athletes are good at repeating motions for certain, however they’re additionally adaptable inside these motions
3:06
J: If you got an opportunity to begin a brand new enlargement staff what kind of ability would you base your staff round to attempt to achieve edge?
3:07
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d a)spend lots of time hiring developmenet employees
3:07
Ben Clemens: and b) I’m me, so I’d be looking out for the subsequent technology of both Paredes/Schneider sorts or Betts/JRam sorts
3:08
Ben Clemens: like clearly everyone seems to be. however as an enlargement staff I’d attempt to spend extra of my sources than regular on these guys
3:08
Ben Clemens: I feel that from a useful resource expenditure to doable large league return perspective, there’s some juice there
3:08
bosoxforlife: I had an expertise in golf with one in every of my greatest juniors. He was recruited closely and went to a high school golf program. Instantly the coach despatched him to a brand new coach and very quickly couldn’t break 80. True idiocy!
3:08
Ben Clemens: seems like the brand new coach wasn’t the proper one
3:08
Okra: Possibilities that Strider, Acuna, Olsen all had their profession greatest seasons final 12 months? 80%? 90%? Hurts that Atlanta didn’t capitalize
3:08
Ben Clemens: blah, I used to be trying into Strider’s long-term projections earlier as we speak
3:09
Ben Clemens: I feel that Olson and Acuna having their greatest years are fairly possible
3:09
Ben Clemens: simply b/c these had been AMAZING years
3:09
Ben Clemens: I’m much less bought on Strider
3:09
Ben Clemens: the factor is, if he comes again wholesome, I feel he may simply be ’23 Strider
3:10
Ben Clemens: so I’m gonna say in mixture, 50%?
3:10
Ben Clemens: like perhaps a type of different two spikes a season
3:10
Ben Clemens: however Strider nonetheless initiatives as unimaginable when wholesome
3:10
Ben Clemens: I feel he may spike a wholesome good season fairly simply
3:10
Finest 12 months!: “I feel that Olson and Acuna having their greatest years are fairly possible“
simply b/c these had been AMAZING years.” I keep in mind that folks stated this about 2017 Decide
3:11
Ben Clemens: that’s why I stated ‘fairly possible’ as an alternative of 0%
3:11
Ben Clemens: I’m only a hedger at coronary heart
3:11
Derek: How nicely do you assume an enlargement staff run by the whole present FanGraphs employees would fare? My intestine tells me the reply can be no less than “fairly nicely”, and possibly higher!
3:11
Ben Clemens: Haha, I’m not very modest, so I’d say we’ll do nicely
3:11
Ben Clemens: we’d* do nicely
3:11
Ben Clemens: that stated, I do like the massive dispersal of abilities we’ve. We’ve modelers, scouts, mechanics-type folks
3:12
Ben Clemens: I assume we’ve me? I’m undecided what class I slot in
3:12
Ben Clemens: Appelman is an excellent general resolution maker, so is Meg, I feel they’d do a superb job on the high of the org
3:12
JK: One factor I actually respect about FanGraphs, and also you, is the development of “course of over outcomes”. How typically do that you must see dangerous outcomes earlier than you consider course of change?
3:12
Ben Clemens: on this subject!
3:13
Ben Clemens: I’m cognizant that I lean an excessive amount of on course of at instances. I feel that the most effective you are able to do is admittedly deal with updating your priors. A factor that I attempt to do once I’m doing extra long-term evaluations of gamers, notably for the commerce worth collection, is to individually do evaluations of individuals based mostly on what I feel proper now
3:13
Ben Clemens: and have a look at my previous evals and ZiPS’s evals later
3:14
Ben Clemens: then sort of hone in on the place there are large variations and check out to determine whether or not I’m simply being weirdly biased
3:14
Ben Clemens: I assume I’d say that this goes two methods
3:14
Ben Clemens: on a participant stage, I’m prepared to maneuver extra shortly
3:14
Ben Clemens: b/c you’re getting all this new knowledge
3:14
Ben Clemens: however on a staff building stage, I’m extra all for my prior views, b/c there simply aren’t THAT many observations
3:14
Dan: I don’t assume the FanGraphs staff is sort of large enough to run a baseball staff. If youre only one/4 of the employees are you actually operating the staff and in case you’re spending your time company managing as an alternative of scouting, modeling and so forth you’re solely tapping a portion of your expertise.
3:14
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah we’d rent massively
3:15
Ben Clemens: nowhere close to large enough
3:15
Ben Clemens: and sure, one factor that’s actually tough is attempting to determine whether or not individuals are higher as particular person contributors or managers
3:15
Ben Clemens: my spouse is a very good supervisor, imo, and off the clock we spend a ton of time speaking about that
3:15
Ben Clemens: I’m a person contributor at coronary heart, so I feel I won’t be an important match on this theoretical staff
3:16
Ben Clemens: I feel the one factor which may maintain us again is that we’ve a number of too many IC’s
3:16
Kirk: Oh the questioning of how high flight athletes can change mechanics and nonetheless keep good: you principally nailed it. The possibilities are normally small within the precise course of that they will sustain, even when it seems like a giant change to the layman’s eye. The expertise these dudes have additionally helps them keep good, as a result of on the finish of the day they’re nonetheless swinging a bat laborious or throwing a ball laborious.
I feel that folks can be stunned at how nicely athletes from different sports activities would pickup baseball, by the best way. It could be tough at first, however in case you give somebody like DK Metcalf or Steph Curry (two random athletes off the highest of my head) a problem of “turn into a significant leaguer” after which give him on a regular basis and coaching to deal with that, he’d pull it off.
3:16
Ben Clemens: Thanks, web stranger, however yeah, I’m with you
3:16
Ben Clemens: nice athletes are simply ludicrous
3:17
MilwakeeBeerjays: Gunnar Henderson AL MVP 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%?
3:17
Ben Clemens: Properly, 50% is greater than the ceiling of the place I may put this, proper off the highest
3:17
Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna have him forward of Decide, and there are different gamers
3:17
Ben Clemens: I feel I’ve him round 25%
3:17
SkenesMVP2024: There’s been some discuss of the Pirates including 1-2 bats and attempting to make a run on the WC. Does that sound sensible to you, or is their offense too putrid for it to make a distinction?
3:18
Ben Clemens: you realize, that was my snap response however I’m gonna give it barely extra thought
3:19
Ben Clemens: okay, I’m gonna replace it to I feel that they need to wait till the tip of the month and see the place issues are
3:19
Ben Clemens: like in the event that they’re nonetheless 3 video games out of the WC, and one of many groups forward of them falls behind htem
3:20
Ben Clemens: I feel they perhaps can? the factor they’ve going for them is that a few of their offensive underperformance is from gamers I feel are good who simply haven’t been good up to now
3:20
Ben Clemens: there’s a distinction between that and like, okay 7 of the 9 place guys are filler
3:21
Ben Clemens: they positively want extra offense. however no less than a few of that may come from Cruz persevering with to develop, Hayes being simply okay as an alternative of dangerous, that kinda factor
3:21
Ben Clemens: that stated, I might not be including now
3:21
Ben Clemens: give your self a month to see if a few of these adjustments are literally occurring earlier than deciding
3:22
bigtimetimmyjim: what are your ideas on how efficient properly might be at enjoying shortstop protection? I really feel like he’s been fairly stable up to now however I feel he got here up extra as a 2b
3:22
Ben Clemens: my ideas are that I’ve no clue, however that the Giants want to seek out out
3:22
Ben Clemens: alright, on that notice, I had a good time chatting with you all as we speak however I’ve to go get transferring on lunch
3:23
Ben Clemens: the man who asks the lunch query, I didn’t see you as we speak, however scrumptious bread from an area place with herbed goat cheese
3:23
Ben Clemens: and possibly a salad after
3:23
Ben Clemens: have an important vacation week, everybody