Best of BP: New Stadium, New Sluggers: Three Rays Ready to Rake

Hurricane Milton’s devastating strike over St. Petersburg tore the coated fiberglass roof proper off of Tropicana Subject, residence of the Tampa Bay Rays. It would price the workforce roughly $56 million to repair MLB’s solely remaining domed stadium, however the repairs received’t be full till the 2026 season—in the event that they’re made in any respect. For the upcoming 2025 marketing campaign, the Rays will play each residence recreation at George M. Steinbrenner Subject, which at present serves because the Yankees Spring Coaching advanced and residential venue for his or her Excessive-A affiliate.

The shift is geographically handy for gamers and followers, because it’s solely 21 miles away from The Trop and is definitely a lot nearer to Tampa itself. The settlement was, fortunately, a simple one between the division-rival Yankees and Rays. Hal Steinbrenner “didn’t hesitate to supply help to the Rays” and mentioned, “It’s the best factor to do for his or her fan base,” based on Sam Blum and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. The stadium is called after Steinbrenner’s father,, who lived in Tampa. The Yankees will obtain $15 million from insurance coverage for internet hosting the Rays and offering needed stadium upgrades.

Baseball America’s Minor League park components fee Steinbrenner Subject because the 4th (out of 10) most hitter-friendly stadium within the Florida State League by way of wOBA. Nevertheless, that quantity jumps to 1st for left-handed hitters however falls to ninth for righties, emulating Yankee Stadium’s notorious quick porch in proper. This discrepancy might create some extraordinarily lopsided outcomes for Rays hitters in 2025, however there’s extra to the story.

As a result of Tropicana is one in all solely two domed stadiums in baseball, the temperature, humidity, wind results, and air strain are all comparatively fastened. To associate with a batter’s eye that has generated complaints from hitters over time, The Trop is a hitters’ nightmare.

On fastballs between 94-96 MPH from 2022 to 2024, Tropicana Subject has the best common IVB for street pitchers. It’s the one venue to surpass 17” on common.

This plot beneath exhibits Rays hitters’ swing-and-miss tendencies at residence versus on the street. They make a lot much less contact in opposition to fastballs at Tropicana at each stage of induced vertical break.

Utilizing regression tree modeling, I’ve taken each Rays batted ball from 2024 and estimated two variations of wOBA for every:

Tropicana wOBA: The anticipated wOBA skilled on each batted ball in Tropicana Subject from 2022-2023 (leaving out 2024 as a result of that’s within the dataset we’re utilizing)
Steinbrenner wOBA: The anticipated wOBA skilled on each Spring Coaching batted ball in Steinbrenner Subject from 2022-2024 (together with 2024, as a result of not one of the Rays batted balls have been really in Steinbrenner)

Each variations of predicted wOBA use three parts: exit velocity, launch angle, and spray angle. It’s additionally necessary to notice that as a result of Steinbrenner produces a better wOBA on batted balls basically, the anticipated wOBA values are additionally going to be greater:

wOBAcon
Tropicana
Steinbrenner

Precise
.360
.432

Predicted
.368
.422

The methodology makes extra sense when plotting the distinction between Steinbrenner wOBA and Trop wOBA, the place pink favors Steinbrenner and blue favors Tropicana. The infield dots hover round 0, the intense left-field batted balls are blue due to that quick space in The Trop, and the remainder of the outfield is predominantly pink.

*Observe that the colour scale is shifted, making it barely more durable for batted balls to be pink. It is because Steinbrenner’s precise wOBAcon is greater than Tropicana’s anyway.*

Right here’s a plot of exit velocity versus launch angle, following the identical scale. Remember that this received’t present the consequences of spray angle:

The batted balls beneath zero levels of launch angle are going to hover round zero by way of wOBA distinction, as a result of the stadium shouldn’t be going to vary the end result on these BBE. There’s clearly a ton of irrelevant variance concerned there. What’s actually necessary is that pink band of decrease EV, greater LA batted balls which are above the sweet-spot vary (8-32º). These are going to end in a ton of additional manufacturing for Rays hitters.

As a result of Tropicana Subject already brings such a difficult hitting surroundings, the stadium swap ought to come as a reduction for many hitters. Listed below are three specifically I’ve recognized as guys who may gain advantage probably the most from the stadium change:

Jonathan Aranda, LHB

In a small pattern final season, Aranda crushed the ball. He ranked sixth in all of baseball in barrels per plate look, seventh in common EV on aerial contact, and nineteenth in anticipated slugging.

No Rays hitter had a better common exit velocity on batted balls with a launch angle larger than 20º, and with a Pull% percentile of 86 on such BBE, the fashions completely love Aranda.

*These gentle blue circles you see within the right-field space are ones the place The Trop barely beats out Steinbrenner, however each wOBA fashions predict values of 1.700+*

General, Jonathan Aranda’s estimated Steinbrenner wOBAcon of .543 led the Rays. He hits the ball within the air with authority, and as a lefty with pull-side energy, he’ll thrive. His capability to drive the ball to each proper and heart discipline will create extra extra-base hits at Steinbrenner. He hit 49 balls no less than 300 toes final yr, yielding an precise wOBAcon of .705. Those self same batted balls have been estimated to generate a median wOBA of roughly 1.041 at Steinbrenner, the one Ray to surpass 1.000 on these occasions.

Aranda’s opposite-field energy is critical. Beneath is a plot of his batted balls roughly between the CF and LF positions:

As a left-handed batter, this part of the sector is necessary for Aranda. As soon as he begins driving the ball out to proper, pitchers will possible attempt to transfer additional away from him, so sustaining oppo manufacturing might be essential.

As he lifts the ball, the separation in estimated manufacturing turns into extra seen on this phase of the sector. Though Steinbrenner favors lefties, Aranda carried a .508 estimated wOBAcon on these batted balls, practically a 200-point distinction over The Tropicana prediction.

In an interview, Aranda talked about that he got here into the season trying to assault fastballs. There is no such thing as a doubt in my thoughts that he labored explicitly in Tropicana over the offseason in some unspecified time in the future as a result of the distinction is night-and-day:

Aranda vs. fastballs at Tropicana Subject

Season
Pitches
Z-Swing%
Z-Con%
xwOBAcon
HardHit%
Ninetieth-EV

2023
151
55.8%
67.4%
.224
36.4%
97.9

2024
133
55.7%
79.5%
.656
75.0%
108.2

Whereas he received’t be taking part in in The Trop subsequent season, his capability to see and hit fastballs in that surroundings is way improved. He’ll don’t have any hassle sustaining that trait in Steinbrenner; his street xwOBAcon in opposition to fastballs went from .360 to .399, however he did so whereas enhancing his Z-Swing% by 16%. It’s a pitch he’s began to mash basically, each at residence and on the street, however the enchancment at Tropicana provides me confidence that he’ll don’t have any lingering fastball points at Steinbrenner.

Beneath is a comparability of Aranda’s swing in opposition to two fastballs, the left from 2023 and the best from 2024. His legs are nearer collectively, and his pre-pitch hand motion is far more direct. Discover how a lot quicker his swing begins after leg-lift because of the hand place repair:

Aranda has a affected person plate method, however is tough to place away. He makes contact when behind within the rely, and it’s sometimes loud, too. He sits towards the center of the spectrum by way of bat pace, however generates lots of energy by doing injury in-zone and incessantly lifting his balls-in-play.

Richie Palacios, LHB

Palacios has performed for 3 completely different groups throughout three seasons and has accrued precisely 2 WARP as a giant leaguer. The Rays acquired the slugger final offseason in a one-for-one commerce for rental reliever Andrew Kittredge, and he’s acquired some upside. His common exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBA, xwOBAcon, BB%, and Candy-Spot% have elevated every season. He additionally quietly paced for 31 stolen bases per 150 video games regardless of tallying solely 4 in his two previous seasons mixed.

Equally to Aranda, Palacios is a left-handed hitter who pulls the ball within the air. He ranked within the 89th percentile of all hitters by way of aerial pull fee, one thing that ought to translate properly to Steinbrenner, because the mannequin predicts:

Palacios positive factors 75 factors of estimated wOBAcon with the swap to Steinbrenner, which shouldn’t come as a shock based mostly on his spray chart. Nevertheless, his batted ball-profile has developed over time:

Season
BBE
SwtSpot%
GB%
LD%
Pull%
Oppo%

2022 (CLE)
93
26.9%
45.2%
24.7%
31.2%
26.9%

2023 (STL)
84
29.8%
53.6%
13.1%
40.5%
23.8%

2024 (TBR)
198
36.4%
37.9%
30.3%
47.0%
18.7%

Whereas I’m undecided how a lot of this may be credited to the Rays and their coaches, Palacios’ swing has been tweaked. His pre-pitch bat-wiggle remains to be there, solely greater up and farther from his physique. He places a ton of weight on his entrance leg throughout his load and rotates by means of his again knee, which he retains practically parallel to the bottom as he fires the barrel. Right here’s a slowed comparability of final season (left) and this season (proper):

There’s an intriguing development together with his profile by way of launch and spray instructions, particularly due to the stadium swap. The modifications in Palacios’s batted ball profile complement his enhancements in exit velocity, injury, and bat pace.

Pictured beneath are batted balls to Palacios’ pull-side (spray angle larger than 10º) that traveled no less than 100 toes:

On these BBE, Palacios is predicted to realize 194 factors in estimated wOBA, transferring from .466 on the Trop to .660 in Steinbrenner. Though Palacios has seen regular enhancements in exit velocity, he’s not fairly at an elite stage but. Nevertheless, at a a lot smaller park (and one which favors left-handers, no much less), his capability to remain out in entrance and proceed to drag the ball might be a way more significant issue than exit velocity in regard to damage-doing.

Palacios labored with Driveline final offseason, and whereas it’s unclear if he’s persevering with their packages, he noticed a noticeable enchancment in bat pace. This led to his enhancements in xwOBA, max EV, and different metrics.

After we get extra into the nitty-gritty features of Palacios’s offensive profile, his development of bat pace over the course of the season caught my eye. There’s an anticipated decline all through the intense period of the season, however that is barely regarding for somebody with mediocre swing speeds as it’s:

Fortunately, there’s extra excellent news for Palacios. He struggled a ton in The Trop, particularly in opposition to fastballs. This chart ought to remind you of 1 from earlier within the article:

Palacios’s Whiff% jumps above 60% in that 16”/17” IVB vary at The Trop, however he’s proper round league common on the street. This is among the most important explanation why I feel he’ll excel each typically and at Steinbrenner; he received’t should play at Tropicana.

His struggles are constant in opposition to different pitch teams and kinds as properly. His swing choices in opposition to offspeed pitches are fascinating:

Venue
Z-Swing%
O-Swing%
Contact%
Avg Bat Velocity

Residence
71.1%
40.6%
74.5%
68.8

Highway
87.1%
29.2%
75.6%
70.2

Palacios clearly has hassle studying offspeed pitches in Tropicana’s surroundings, and his consolation within the field is displayed by his bat pace. His Contact% solely enhancing by a single share level, blended with the slight bat pace enchancment, exhibits that he’s probably not getting his A-swing off at Tropicana when he sees splitters and changeups. He’s doing no matter it takes to make contact after being caught off guard by irregular motion and spin, a thesis additional strengthened by his lopsided swing charges.

Richie Palacios is among the high candidates to enhance at Steinbrenner purely based mostly on the rise in his estimated batted-ball manufacturing. For somebody who’s posted a .567 OPS of their lone 131 ABs within the Trop, the swap to Steinbrenner will make hitting a complete lot simpler.

Curtis Mead, RHB

Mead struggled in 2024 when he joined the big-league membership. With only a .569 OPS and poor Okay/BB ratios, there was a big hole from his time in AAA, the place he slugged .481 on a .369 wOBA. Nevertheless, his batted ball profile seems fairly fascinating, particularly in Steinbrenner. Combining his Triple-A and MLB batted balls, his spray chart exhibits his 72-point hole in Steinbrenner wOBA over Tropicana wOBA:

Mead’s 391 batted balls projected for a .406 wOBAcon at Steinbrenner, a hefty enchancment over simply .334 at Tropicana. Quite a lot of this comes from flyballs to heart and proper discipline. If we check out Mead’s hard-hit balls with a minimal launch angle of 25º, we are able to see his predicted Steinbrenner wOBA begin to take off after that left-field nook space:

*Detrimental is LF, Zero is CF, Constructive is RF*

On batted balls with a twig angle between -10º and 10º, the place we actually focus in on that heart discipline space, Mead’s estimated manufacturing skyrockets.

His predicted wOBAcon at Steinbrenner on these batted balls is .556, however at Tropicana, those self same occasions return a worth of simply .368, an enchancment of 187 factors. That’s the biggest disparity amongst each Rays hitter with 30 balls in play inside these spray angle parameters.

This double by Mead is an ideal instance of why he’ll shine at Steinbrenner. The anticipated Tropicana wOBAcon on batted balls with related EV, LA, and Spray Angle is .460; stable, however you’d count on extra for a double off the wall. At Steinbrenner, the estimated wOBAcon is 1.900.

The seven batted balls within the information body with related metrics at Steinbrenner gave us a worth of 1.900, and listed below are the precise outcomes of these batted ball occasions:

Sac Fly
Residence Run
Residence Run
Residence Run
Residence Run
Residence Run
Residence Run

Mead shouldn’t be a pull-happy hitter—an archetype that works properly in Tropicana. For somebody who likes to make use of all the discipline, Steinbrenner is ideal for Curtis Mead.