Something value doing is value doing proper, and when it got here to shedding video games, the 2024 White Sox had been the grandmasters of the artwork. Positive, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders had a worse document, however that was an deliberately horrible crew due to an proprietor who despatched the membership’s good gamers over to a different crew they owned, the St. Louis Perfectos. The 1962 Mets edged the Sox in win proportion, however that infamous crew had the benefit of being an growth membership of their first 12 months after an growth draft that was so brief on expertise, it resembled a grocery retailer’s bathroom paper aisle through the top of COVID. Final 12 months’s White Sox had been simply two years faraway from a .500 document, and by all accounts, possession and the entrance workplace supposed to really win video games. A powerful document, nevertheless, must be cast within the fireplace of latest challengers, and this season, two early contenders have emerged: the Colorado Rockies and the reigning lastpions themselves.
The Rockies are off to a blazing chilly begin and are the present frontrunners with a 4-20 document. For a crew with a profitable proportion in need of .200, Colorado has obtained some surprisingly competent pitching performances, with the 2 important splats being former Cy Younger contender Germán Márquez and prime prospect Chase Dollander. The place the Rockies have been stunningly poor is on the offensive aspect of issues, with the crew hitting .213/.287/.345 and simply barely averaging three runs per sport. Fourteen hitters have not less than 20 plate appearances and greater than half of them have a wRC+ beneath 70. Ryan McMahon’s efficiency is a very low lowlight; the third baseman has 39 strikeouts already due to an out-of-zone contact charge beneath 20%, a quantity so bananas that it appears to be like like a programming glitch that proves our existence is definitely a simulation.
ZiPS thought the Rockies would wrestle in 2025, however to not this stage. The system’s projection, for a mere 99 losses, even got here with a (very) small likelihood of Colorado making the playoffs as a Wild Card crew. After Thursday’s video games, I did a full re-simulation of the 2025 season to get a projection for what the Rockies might obtain in the event that they fail to get the wheels again on the cart:
ZiPS Win Projection – Colorado Rockies
Wins
Share
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.0%
0.0%
30
0.0%
0.0%
31
0.1%
0.1%
32
0.1%
0.2%
33
0.1%
0.3%
34
0.2%
0.5%
35
0.3%
0.7%
36
0.5%
1.2%
37
0.7%
1.8%
38
0.8%
2.7%
39
1.0%
3.7%
40
1.5%
5.2%
41
1.8%
7.0%
42
2.0%
8.9%
43
2.6%
11.5%
44
2.9%
14.4%
45
3.3%
17.7%
46
4.0%
21.7%
47
4.1%
25.8%
48
4.4%
30.2%
49
4.7%
34.9%
50
5.2%
40.1%
51
5.0%
45.0%
52
5.4%
50.4%
53
5.2%
55.6%
54
5.1%
60.7%
55
5.0%
65.7%
56
4.7%
70.4%
57
4.3%
74.7%
58
4.1%
78.8%
59
3.7%
82.5%
60
3.3%
85.7%
61
2.8%
88.5%
62
2.4%
91.0%
63
1.9%
92.9%
64
1.7%
94.6%
65
1.3%
95.9%
66
1.1%
97.1%
67
0.9%
97.9%
68
0.6%
98.6%
69
0.4%
99.0%
70
0.4%
99.4%
71
0.2%
99.6%
72
0.2%
99.8%
73
0.1%
99.9%
74
0.1%
99.9%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
Naturally, the crew’s small sliver of playoff likelihood has been worn out by April. Within the preseason projections, the Rockies solely had a 1.5% likelihood of matching 121 losses and a 0.8% likelihood of setting a brand new document. So whereas the feat was not less than believable, it was an extended shot. The chances are nonetheless strongly in opposition to — shedding this many video games is de facto exhausting — however seven and 5 p.c are bonafide countin’ numbers.
Colorado’s largest impediment within the pursuit of infamy is that there are actual causes for hope when trying on the roster. As talked about above, Márquez and Dollander have been horrible, however there may be nonetheless not less than some remaining likelihood that the previous can get again to the place he was, and the latter is an elite prospect. Michael Toglia is a Triple-A-caliber first baseman, not a pitcher dragooned into the lineup, and can certainly fall in need of his -6 WAR tempo. Ezequiel Tovar is a greater participant than this, and guys like Zac Veen and Adael Amador have reliable upside. The Rockies merely have loads of saving throws that might result in extra constructive outcomes this 12 months. The beginning makes it attainable that the Rockies will match the 2024 Sox for futility, however whenever you watch Colorado, your eyes aren’t bodily compelled to stare blurrily into center distance on the Stygian maw, the place nothing will give your frozen gaze succor from the dread of oblivion and Chris Davis‘ contract.
However hey, we nonetheless have the OGs, the White Sox, to take a look at. At 6-19, they’re a sport and a half behind the Rockies for these functions, but when ZiPS is to be believed, they’re a basically worse roster. Chicago’s 52-110 projected document coming into the 2025 season is the worst projection ZiPS has ever given a crew (not counting that article final 12 months the place I projected how Triple-A groups would fare within the majors):
ZiPS Win Projection – Chicago White Sox
Win
Share
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.1%
0.1%
30
0.1%
0.2%
31
0.2%
0.4%
32
0.3%
0.7%
33
0.4%
1.1%
34
0.6%
1.7%
35
0.9%
2.6%
36
1.3%
3.9%
37
1.5%
5.4%
38
1.9%
7.3%
39
2.4%
9.7%
40
2.8%
12.4%
41
3.4%
15.8%
42
3.7%
19.6%
43
4.1%
23.6%
44
4.7%
28.3%
45
5.1%
33.4%
46
5.3%
38.7%
47
5.5%
44.2%
48
5.4%
49.6%
49
5.3%
54.9%
50
5.1%
60.0%
51
5.0%
65.0%
52
4.7%
69.7%
53
4.4%
74.1%
54
4.2%
78.3%
55
3.7%
82.0%
56
3.2%
85.2%
57
2.9%
88.1%
58
2.5%
90.6%
59
2.0%
92.7%
60
1.6%
94.3%
61
1.5%
95.8%
62
1.2%
96.9%
63
0.8%
97.7%
64
0.7%
98.4%
65
0.5%
98.9%
66
0.4%
99.2%
67
0.3%
99.5%
68
0.2%
99.7%
69
0.1%
99.8%
70
0.1%
99.9%
71
0.0%
100.0%
72
0.0%
100.0%
73
0.0%
100.0%
74
0.0%
100.0%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
ZiPS offers the White Sox a 16% likelihood of matching final 12 months’s loss complete and a 12% likelihood — higher than the likelihood of an Aaron Decide homer — of besting it. The place the White Sox and Rockies differ within the pantheon of awful groups is that the Sox are at the moment configured in a means that significantly limits their upside. For a rebuilding crew, the beginning lineup is surprisingly outdated and established; gamers like Nick Maton, Michael A. Taylor, and Matt Thaiss have a use as function gamers on crew, however the ceiling on their efficiency is sort of low. Presently injured gamers corresponding to Josh Rojas and Mike Tauchman are in the identical boat. The Sox have constructed a Triple-A-caliber crew with a roster that appears like one. If you happen to had been in a foreign country and behind on the baseball information and somebody gave you a printout of this roster with “Charlotte Knights” on the prime, wouldn’t it instantly register as improper?
That’s to not say there aren’t any gamers with upside. I truly just like the return the Sox obtained for Garrett Crochet, and assume that Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, and Braden Montgomery might all have futures within the majors. Shane Smith has been a spotlight for me as a starter, and I’m completely digging Brandon Eisert’s sizzling begin as a junk-tossing Doug Jones-esque reliever, an archetype you don’t see fairly often in trendy baseball. However the prospects received’t be distinguished rapidly sufficient, and the attention-grabbing pitchers are too few, to offer this crew an actual sense of short-term optimism.
There’s even an opportunity that each groups tie or set the document, with the Rockies and White Sox each not less than tying the document in 1% of simulations and each beating the document in 0.6% of the runs. It’s too quickly to recognized whether or not we’ll see a real Lossapalooza or merely two ordinarily awful groups come September, but it surely’s enjoyable to dream… darkly.
