11:14pm: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet stories that the 2 sides have reached an settlement on a $500MM deal over 14 years, pending a bodily. Davidi stories that there’s no deferred cash within the deal, making it the second-largest deal in MLB historical past by web current worth behind that of Soto.
8:49pm: The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been taking part in “will they, received’t they” for a very long time, however it seems the stare down between the perimeters could also be coming to an in depth. Mike Rodriguez reported on Friday that the 2 sides are nearing an settlement on an extension value greater than $500MM, and whereas no deal seems to be in place but USA In the present day’s Bob Nightengale confirmed this morning that the perimeters are discussing a deal value $500MM that might preserve Guerrero in Toronto for at the least fourteen years whereas suggesting that “maybe” the deal would get achieved as quickly as this coming week.
Jon Heyman of the New York Put up joined the fray this night, noting that sources round his workforce have “recommended” the the Jays are working to complete up a 14-year deal within the $500MM vary whereas including {that a} deal might be consummated “quickly.” Heyman went on to seek advice from the deal as “seemingly all-but-done” and added that “optimism is big” {that a} deal will get achieved, although he emphasised that each GM Ross Atkins and Guerrero himself declined to remark. Guerrero’s most up-to-date touch upon the matter was given to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, who he advised that he did “not know something” in regards to the state of extension talks earlier than emphasizing that he has all the time “left that to [his] agent” on the Prime Company.
After all, Guerrero moderately famously set a deadline of the beginning of Spring Coaching that got here and went and not using a deal. The edges have seemingly continued to barter each within the eye of the media and behind closed doorways since then, nonetheless, with pretty particular stories concerning Guerrero’s asking worth and a brand new provide from the Jays coming to the floor. It’s pretty frequent for contract talks to proceed past self-imposed deadlines if the perimeters are shut sufficient, with Garrett Crochet standing as a notable latest instance of a participant who set a tough deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks earlier than finally signing after that deadline. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Brandon Pfaadt, and Kristian Campbell are among the many different gamers to have signed extensions because the season started who presumably opened negotiations with their golf equipment throughout Spring Coaching.
Each earlier talks between the perimeters and stories concerning the most recent framework have centered round a 14-year pact. That’s a mirrored image of Guerrero’s youth, as he solely simply turned 26 years outdated final month. It’s a considerably comparable scenario to Juan Soto, who hit free company proper round his twenty sixth birthday. Given his youth and expertise, he was in a position to parlay a frenzied free company right into a record-shattering 15-year deal value $765MM. On that sort of size, the Jays and Guerrero weren’t far aside in February. A niche of $50MM on a 14-year deal would solely be $3.57MM yearly. A $100MM hole could be $7.14MM per yr. These are pretty small numbers by way of an MLB membership’s funds, so it was comprehensible that Shapiro and Atkins felt adequate about bridging the hole to publicly counsel they’d signal Guerrero when all was stated and achieved.
Previous to Soto shifting the goalposts, the reported $500MM worth of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discussing would have been a record-breaking deal. Shohei Ohtani signed a ten-year, $700MM contract with the Dodgers simply over a yr in the past. Nevertheless, the large deferrals in that contract considerably lowered the NPV. The league calculated his AAV as $46.06MM whereas the MLBPA pegged it at $43.78MM. Ballparking the assure round $450MM was nonetheless a file on the time, with Mookie Betts and his $365MM the earlier high assure. After all, Ohtani’s deal moved to a distant second with the Soto deal and now Guerrero is outwardly poised to shoot previous him as effectively.
Guerrero’s observe file isn’t fairly as elite as that of Soto, who is just in a category all his personal as an offensive expertise with a profession wRC+ (158) in the identical ballpark as Guerrero’s peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are fairly good and he’s solely a yr older; when Guerrero is at his greatest, he’s simply the closest comparability to Soto within the sport by way of age and general offensive capacity. For the Jays, he has been the face of the franchise for a very long time. After the membership’s postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a fast rebuild interval that noticed them submit shedding information for the following three years. As such, many followers rested their hopes on an rising core of younger prospects like Guerrero, Bo Bichette and others.
His preliminary main league work was good however not nice, although it got here at an age when most prospects are nonetheless taking part in in faculty or within the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% higher than league common on the plate. To be holding his personal within the massive leagues throughout his age-20 and -21 seasons was nonetheless a notable accomplishment, nonetheless, even when he wasn’t instantly taking part in at All-Star ranges. Any doubts about his capacity to achieve the ceiling he flashed as a prospect had been quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 dwelling runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and solely struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have received the American League Most Invaluable Participant award that yr, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani.
Guerrero couldn’t fairly carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his subsequent two seasons. He hit a mixed .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. Whereas that’s nonetheless robust manufacturing, it’s clearly a drop from his 2021 marketing campaign and 2023 specifically forged him as nearer to pedestrian than celebrity as he posted a 118 wRC+ with simply 1.3 fWAR. Happily, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked issues again up final yr, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and ending sixth in a crowded AL MVP subject.
That’s to not say that there isn’t a danger. The protection is questionable and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. However he has already achieved so much with the bat at a younger age. His stroll and strikeout charges have been persistently higher than common, with robust energy in addition. On any sort of huge deal like this, the signing membership most likely is aware of it received’t look pristine all the way in which to the ultimate season, because the Tigers and Angels might inform you about their offers for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. The Jays might be hoping that they get piles of worth from Guerrero’s prime years, each by way of on-field and off-field worth, so as to ease the ache of his eventual decline.
Arguably, it could have been cheaper to increase Guerrero earlier in his profession, as gamers usually achieve incomes energy as they get nearer to free company. Nevertheless, Guerrero’s oscillating outcomes maybe gave the Jays pause about making a big dedication to him. From Guerrero’s perspective, he was an extremely proficient prospect and on observe to achieve free company at such a younger age, giving him incentive to guess on himself. Discovering a worth amenable to either side would have been difficult.
The celebs have seemingly aligned lately. Guerrero’s 2024 season appeared to show that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. In the meantime, the Jays have tried to safe mega offers with different gamers and fallen brief. They had been closely tied to Ohtani, Soto, Roki Sasaki and loads of different gamers who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, however none on these pursuits panned out. Till this Guerrero deal turns into official, the biggest deal in franchise historical past is George Springer’s $150MM assure on a six-year pact, which is now greater than 4 years outdated. With Shapiro and Atkins reportedly each nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been recommended they’re underneath stress for a giant public relations victory.
Since they haven’t been in a position to get these massive offers for marquee free brokers achieved, that leaves them some future payroll area to decide to Guerrero. He and Bichette are each slated at no cost company after 2025, as are Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Inexperienced. After 2026, Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho are slated to hit the open market. José Berríos is underneath contract via 2028, however has an opt-out after 2026. Anthony Santander could have an opt-out probability after 2027. Andrés Giménez and Alejandro Kirk might be the 2 gamers making notable cash nonetheless on the workforce by 2028 if these opt-out clauses are exercised, and there’s nothing on the books past 2030.
If Guerrero and the Jays formally put pen to paper, it’s going to deprive the approaching offseason of one of many high free brokers. As of now, Guerrero and Kyle Tucker are seen as the highest place gamers more likely to be obtainable. On the pitching facet, Dylan Stop, Zac Gallen and Michael King might be a few of the most tasty names. That might be a tricky improvement for followers of different golf equipment however it might be an enormous profit to these different free brokers, particularly Tucker, who will develop into the uncontested greatest free agent hitter obtainable in a market that appears more and more starved for influence offense with out Guerrero on the high. After all, all of this may require the perimeters to formally get a deal achieved.
