Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 15th, 2025 - Inside the Hall

We’ve reached the purpose of Champ Week the place potential bid thieves are a bit simpler to establish. Listed here are the groups we might be watching intently over the subsequent couple of days.

• AAC: Memphis is certainly in no matter what occurs over the subsequent couple of days. Given the variety of shut video games they’ve performed, the Tigers will possible be on the middle of some tense moments for bubble groups.

• Atlantic-10: I’m not satisfied VCU would get an at-large, however bubblers will pull for the Rams to take away that chance from the equation.

• Huge West: It is going to be UC San Diego and UC Irvine for the title, however irrespective of who loses, there’s a potential at-large case to be made. Since UCSD has the higher profile, groups on the cutline ought to root for them.

• Mountain West: As a result of Colorado State is the upper seed, I’ve them projected because the auto-bid in right this moment’s projections however regardless of their spectacular play, there’s nonetheless an opportunity they get ignored with a loss to Boise within the finals. I believe an analogous argument may very well be made that Boise is out with a loss too, however the Broncos have the stronger at-large case, given their key non-conference victories.

Trying forward, my subsequent replace might be on Sunday forward of the choice present. Between at times, there are nonetheless a number of areas I need to take a better take a look at, significantly the top of the 4 line via the start of the eight line. There are pockets of groups in that vary, however that common part is the place I really feel least assured proper now. I’ll even be scrubbing the ten and 11 strains, which may result in some small strikes there.

Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins primarily based on the NET ranking:

· Quad 1: House vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Street vs. groups ranked 1-75· Quad 2: House vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Street vs. groups ranked 76-135· Quad 3: House vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Street vs. groups ranked 136-240· Quad 4: House vs. groups ranked 161-364 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-364 / Street vs. groups ranked 241-364

The projections under are primarily based on all video games performed via March 14th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 4 out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH)

NEWARK (EAST)

Lexington – March 20/22

Raleigh – March 21/23

1) Auburn

1) Duke

16) Jackson St. / St. Francis*

16) American* / Iona

8) Marquette

8) Creighton

9) Baylor

9) Mississippi St.

Seattle – March 21/23

Windfall – March 20/22

5) Oregon

5) Ole Miss

12) McNeese*

12) Boise St. / UC Irvine

4) Arizona

4) Maryland

13) Akron

13) Excessive Level*

Milwaukee – March 21/23

6) Saint Mary’s

6) Illinois

11) West Virginia

11) San Diego St. / Vanderbilt

3) Kentucky

3) Iowa St.

14) UNC-Wilmington*

14) Montana*

Cleveland – March 21/23

7) Louisville

7) Gonzaga*

10) Arkansas

10) Oklahoma

2) Michigan St.

2) Tennessee

15) Wofford*

15) Bryant*

SAN FRANCISCO (WEST)

INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST)

Raleigh – March 21/23

Wichita – March 20/22

1) Florida

1) Houston

16) Norfolk St.

16) SIU-Edwardsville*

8) Connecticut

8) Memphis

9) New Mexico

9) Georgia

Seattle – March 21/23

Denver – March 20/22

5) Clemson

5) Michigan

12) Colorado St.

12) Liberty*

4) Purdue

4) Wisconsin

13) Lipscomb*

13) Yale

Wichita – March 20/22

Denver – March 20/22

6) BYU

6) UCLA

11) VCU

11) UC San Diego

3) Texas Tech

3) Texas A&M

14) Troy*

14) Utah Valley

Windfall – March 20/22

Lexington – March 20/22

7) Missouri

7) Kansas

10) Drake*

10) Utah St.

2) St. John’s

2) Alabama

15) Omaha*

15) Robert Morris*

Final 4 In:

Vanderbilt – In the end, I really feel comfy that the Commodores might be within the discipline, however a poor non-conference power of schedule and a 12-12 mark in non-This fall video games has pushed them into the final 4 in. Vandy has struggled on the street and sits at 1-8 in Q1 video games away from residence, however a quartet of robust residence wins and a street victory at Texas A&M needs to be simply sufficient.

San Diego State – The Aztecs are 3-5 in Q1 with neutral-court wins in opposition to Houston and Creighton to go along with a street win at Boise State, however they’ve a Q3 loss and solely 12 non-This fall victories. The result-based metrics are stable, so the Aztecs really feel protected for choice, however predictive metrics hovering round fiftieth may affect seeding. Just like Vandy, I don’t suppose there’s a ton of threat right here. The final couple spots is the place it begins to get dicey.

Boise State – Final week’s residence loss to Colorado State put the Broncos in a troublesome spot, however they’ve come up large within the Mountain West event with wins in opposition to San Diego State and New Mexico. Since Colorado State is the upper seed, they’re the projected auto-bid, and finally CSU profitable the event provides the league its finest likelihood to ship 5 groups to the dance. Boise does have a loss in every of Q3 and This fall together with result-based metrics which can be proper round fiftieth, however non-conference wins in opposition to Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extraordinarily nicely. The Broncos have additionally knocked off Utah State and New Mexico at residence along with the wins they picked up in Vegas this week.

UC Irvine – Understanding how the committee would possibly deal with the Anteaters is hard. On the one hand, they’ve now gained 18 street/impartial video games and boast a Q1A street victory to go along with a 4-2 mark within the high two quadrants. Conversely, UC Irvine has predictive metrics that common within the higher 70s. The result-based metrics common within the higher 40s, which is definitely higher than plenty of different groups I thought-about. Personally, that is the sort of workforce I’d prefer to see get a shot as an alternative of middling energy convention groups, however I’m attempting to foretell what the committee will do. Whereas I’m not satisfied they’d give UCI the nod, I’m leaving them in for now.

First 4 Out:

Indiana – After Thursday’s loss to Oregon, IU is simply 4-13 in Q1 contests, however they haven’t any losses outdoors of the highest quadrant. The Hoosiers have 9 wins throughout Q1 and Q2 and whereas some blowout losses earlier within the season damage the predictive metrics, their result-based metrics common out within the low 40s, which have a tendency to carry extra weight within the choice course of. IU has simply two victories in opposition to at-large groups within the discipline, which can depart them sweating over the subsequent couple days.

Xavier – The Musketeers dropped a detailed sport to Marquette of their Huge East event opener, and so they now sit at 1-9 in Q1 contests, with the lone win coming at Marquette. They’ve two losses outdoors of Q1 and are 14-11 in non-This fall video games, together with residence wins in opposition to UConn and Creighton. It’s price noting that although Xavier has two Q2 losses in comparison with none for IU, the Musketeers have extra wins in opposition to the projected discipline. The margin between Xavier and Indiana is extremely skinny, so the order of those two is up for debate.

Texas – The Longhorns stayed alive by knocking off Vanderbilt and Texas A&M within the SEC event, and 7 Q1 wins and stable predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate. Nevertheless, they performed a weak non-conference schedule and are simply 12-15 in non-This fall video games. It seems like yearly there’s a workforce the committee punishes for taking part in a poor non-con schedule, and it seems like that workforce this yr might be Texas.

North Carolina – I suppose by no means say by no means, however after shedding to the Cooper Flagg-less Blue Devils, I simply don’t get the case for choosing UNC. The Heels have only one loss outdoors of Q1, however they’re 1-12 in Q1 video games and have just one victory in opposition to my projected discipline to go along with a Q3 residence loss to Stanford. The predictive metrics are robust relative to different bubble groups, however they merely don’t have the standard wins.

Convention Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Huge Ten (8): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Huge 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Huge East (4): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s

ACC (3): Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

Huge West (2): UC Irvine, UC San Diego

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant