To say the Bucs season has been a rollercoaster to this point can be fairly the truthful evaluation. And they’re solely 5 video games into the marketing campaign. So far just one recreation has seemingly gone “to plan.” Tampa Bay’s Week 1 victory over the Washington Commanders didn’t rock the soccer world.
Since then, the Bucs have skilled highs and lows on a week-in, week-out foundation that may give an EKG for a affected person with tachycardia a run for it’s cash. A stunning win in Detroit, adopted by a flat efficiency in opposition to Denver. Then Tampa Bay rounded out their present 3-2 schedule with a powerful win over the Eagles earlier than collapsing late in opposition to the Falcons.
The inconsistent nature of the staff’s game-by-game outcomes paired with the relative brevity of the season thus far can result in overreactions by way of what is true, and fallacious, with the present composition of the staff in addition to the close to and long-term outlooks of every place group. So, with 30% of the common season within the books I needed to try every place group by way of each a brief and long-term lens whereas the Bucs attempt to get wholesome on their mini bye following an emotional Thursday Evening Soccer recreation.
Right this moment we are going to take a look at the huge receivers and tight ends. Tomorrow will function the offensive and defensive strains.
Extensive Receiver
Only a few pass-catching duos are as productive because the Mike Evans/Chris Godwin tandem. By 5 video games the Bucs prime two receivers are averaging a mixed 2.07 yards per route run. That’s seventh within the NFL among the many prime two route runners for every staff. And Evans and Godwins mixed 132.4 receiving yards per recreation is sixth most within the league.
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R
The 2 have complimentary ability units that enable one another to thrive and Coen has an actual knack for using the 2 effectively. Godwin is experiencing a profession renaissance of kinds, as he’s on tempo for 109 catches for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. In the meantime, Evans is a bit off his annual 1,000-yard tempo, however he’s averaging a landing per recreation and has over 150 yards in his final two video games.
Key Stat: 0.8
Past these two, issues get extra fascinating. Rookie sensation Jalen McMillan scored a landing within the season opener however was largely quiet over the following two video games earlier than lacking Weeks 4 and 5 on account of damage. However previous to damage he was struggling to combine into the Bucs offense. His 0.8 yards per route run is at the moment ninth of 12 gamers who’ve run a route for the Bucs this season. He has caught simply 50% of his six targets and struggled to assist in the run recreation as an add-on blocker.
Trey Palmer noticed further appears in Week 4, making an unbelievable catch for a landing early within the Eagles recreation. Palmer would depart early from that recreation with an damage of his personal. In his restricted work this yr Palmer has appeared higher than the rookie McMillan and his effectivity metrics appear to agree. Palmer leads McMillan in yards per route run, catch fee, catch fee over anticipated and goal fee.
However probably the most intriguing possibility for the Bucs at this level is Sterling Shepard. The previous Big has all the time been a proficient receiver. He’s simply struggled with well being and mis-assignment of function. After being known as upon following Palmer’s damage he has proven probably the most tantalizing potential as an extra layer to the Bucs receiving corps, catching 4 passes for 55 yards and a landing over simply 55 routes.
Quick And Lengthy-Time period Outlooks
Within the brief time period, the Bucs ought to prioritize offensive effectivity. Now that Sterling Shepard is on the lively roster, he needs to be included within the majority of the three receiver units going ahead. Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan ought to see some however restricted motion if all receivers are wholesome. That’s to not say the Bucs ought to surrender on both younger go catcher. Each have promise however aren’t as ready to assist the offense as Shepard proper now.
This place group may see main turnover within the subsequent 17 months. Chris Godwin is a pending free agent, and his present stage of play would have him price $28 million per season or extra on his subsequent contract. The Bucs could choose to maintain the rejuvenated receiver, however it is going to possible require appreciable sources.
If they don’t retain Godwin, Palmer or McMillan would want to take an enormous step ahead subsequent season. Given his rapport with Baker Mayfield and scant-other gamers needing giant investments subsequent yr, I’d advocate for shelling out the cash to maintain Godwin. And with Mike Evans set to show 32 subsequent August, there isn’t any true “X” receiver to step into that function if and when he strikes on. Receiver may very well be excessive on the Bucs’ precedence record come subsequent low season.
Tight Finish
Bucs TE Cade Otton – Picture by: USA Right this moment
Cade Otton’s 2024 marketing campaign has gone very similar to the 2 seasons that preceded it. Some truthful stable, however unspectacular play as a receiver interspersed with some extraordinarily inconsistent blocking. And whereas the blocking is best this yr, his inconsistencies appear to point out up on the worst attainable instances.
Amongst 21 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fifteenth in goal fee, seventeenth in yards per route run, ninth in yards after catch per reception and tenth in catch fee. He would work finest as a fourth or fifth possibility in an offense. Proper now, he’s third in targets for the Bucs. That has to alter.
Payne Durham has been used sparingly this yr, taking part in only a quarter of the offensive snaps and operating simply 15 routes. That has left Otton to play an unbelievable 94% of the staff’s offensive snaps.
Key Stat: 4.3%
Cade Otton’s yards after catch per reception rank is kind of excessive as a result of simply 4.3% of his targets have been over 10 air yards on the season. Examine that to 24.5% in 2023 and 21.7% in 2022. Liam Coen is clearly utilizing Otton in a distinct method than former offensive coordinators Byron Leftwich and Dave Canales did. And the outcomes are marginally improved.
However Otton isn’t a difference-maker. He can pop right here and there for a couple of catches, however he’s not the quantity driver that may maintain the offense if Chris Godwin or Mike Evans had been to go down – even for a recreation.
Quick And Lengthy-Time period Outlooks
Cade Otton is the clear starter for the remainder of the season and not one of the gamers behind him are viable choices to supplant. Otton is neither a optimistic nor damaging modifier. He’s enough.
However subsequent season the staff must make a concerted effort to improve their third possibility within the passing recreation. In principle, the tight finish place isn’t an enormous a part of the passing recreation and shouldn’t be one which requires a big funding. With that stated, Otton is a low-end starter who most likely profiles extra as an excellent No. 2.
If the Bucs can discover or develop a top quality third receiver, then he’s a superbly positive possibility to complete his rookie contract because the beginning tight finish. However Jason Licht and the entrance workplace can definitely open up the creativity jar by seeking to improve Otton and preserve the tight finish because the third-most voluminous possibility in the event that they so need.
