Jayson Tatum’s bounce shot has change into a significant speaking level amongst not solely Celtics followers, however all through your entire NBA group. Can Jayson Tatum shoot? Did his time within the weight room break his bounce shot? Does it even matter if Tatum can shoot?
For a participant that’s had as a lot success as Tatum, it’s a bit of weird how hyper fixated folks (myself included) are on his jumper. The truth is that relating to taking pictures an orange ball right into a basket 24 toes away, there is a component of luck and variance. That is true for all basketball gamers. Not simply Jayson Tatum.
For instance, Luka Doncic missed 21 straight three pointers within the NBA Finals. It’s arduous to just accept as basketball followers that typically taking pictures, particularly within the playoffs, comes right down to luck. Followers don’t care about giant pattern sizes and statistical phrases like “variance” after we’re on our knees begging for a Tatum three pointer to go in. Gamers can have whole seasons the place they shoot effectively above their profession averages whereas then again, gamers can have season-long taking pictures slumps.
Can Jayson Tatum shoot in any respect? The reply is unequivocally sure. Throughout a seven-year profession (common season and playoffs mixed), Tatum has made 1,559 out of 4,215 three pointers or 36.98%, which is above the league common ~36%. Extra not too long ago, Tatum simply loved his finest common season taking pictures the ball because the 2020-2021 season – delivering a three-point proportion of 37.5%. That’s an elite quantity while you think about Tatum’s excessive quantity and excessive issue three level shot food regimen.
Over the previous season, there have been 55 whole gamers that took a minimum of six three pointers per sport. Tatum ranked twenty seventh in three level proportion amongst them. Notable gamers that had a worse three level proportion than Tatum final season have been Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Trae Younger, Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, and Mikal Bridges. Of the 26 gamers forward of Tatum, I labeled 14 of them as catch and shoot specialists – Luke Kennard, Malik Beasley, Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, and many others. The purpose is, Tatum had a extremely spectacular common season taking pictures the ball while you take a look at his three-point shot profile.
Nevertheless, that proportion cratered within the playoffs to twenty-eight.3%. Within the Finals, he made simply 10-of-38. The Olympics weren’t any higher. He missed all 4 for Crew USA. So, the query stays: can Tatum nonetheless shoot?
The Muscle Concept
Some have hypothesized that Tatum has gotten too jacked, that the elevated dimension of his *wonderful* deltoids and biceps have impacted his taking pictures type and taking pictures capability. That is nonsense. As I simply laid out, Tatum shot 37.5% from three-point vary this previous common season, his highest mark because the 2020-2021 season. Did the muscle tissues solely influence Tatum’s taking pictures within the playoffs? If something, gamers are likely to lose a small quantity of muscle by the common season and postseason as there isn’t sufficient time of their schedule to carry as typically as in the course of the offseason. To not point out, there are numerous examples of gamers getting considerably greater and stronger all through their profession whereas not shedding their taking pictures capability with Steph Curry being the obvious instance right here.
I’m not going to faux to be knowledgeable shot physician. I simply obtained again from the park the place I shot 39% (being beneficiant) on solo jumpers. However I’ve pulled collectively a number of three pointers from every of Tatum’s 2020, 2022 and 2024 playoff runs to check his shot type.
I have to emphasize how a lot I’m not a taking pictures skilled. If the title of the movie star taking pictures coach that mounted Grant Williams’ bounce shot is Deadly Shooter, my movie star influencer taking pictures title could be Innocent Shooter. That being stated, I can’t make out any noticeable variations in Tatum’s taking pictures type. The primary takeaway from that video is what number of large photographs Tatum has hit in his younger profession.
Is the dangerous taking pictures a playoff-specific drawback? Tatum has shot a mixed 30.4% from three over his final two playoff runs. These samples are simply too small to make sweeping declarations a few participant’s taking pictures capability. Throughout the final two playoffs mixed, Tatum shot 304 whole three pointers, which might make up solely half of Tatum’s 2024 common season three-point makes an attempt. We’re solely two playoffs faraway from the 2022 Finals run the place Tatum shot 39.3% from three which was probably a little bit of an outlier within the different route. It could be nice if we might simply get Tatum’s profession three-point common each night time. Sadly, the variance gods don’t function that means.
Shot choice
Tatum takes robust photographs. Quite a lot of them he has to take, however a few of them he in all probability doesn’t must take. The truth is, superstars must take robust photographs. While you break down which photographs Tatum made versus which photographs he missed within the 2024 Playoffs, it’s very clear that the photographs that didn’t fall have been the tightly contested ones.
Tatum merely shot higher on tightly contested three-point makes an attempt within the earlier two playoff runs, 27.9% in 2023 and 29.2% in 2022 in comparison with 10.4% within the 2024 Playoffs per Synergy monitoring.
Do you wish to make the case that Tatum ought to simply take much less robust photographs and drive to the rim extra? Certain, however the factor is, the numbers would point out that Tatum agrees with you. Tatum took much less tightly contested threes per sport within the 2024 Playoffs than in each the 2023 and 2024 Playoffs.
Additionally, simply whole three-point quantity. This previous playoffs was Tatum’s lowest mark since he grew to become The Man within the 2019-20 season. Tatum took much less threes per 36 minutes within the 2024 Playoffs than each playoff run going all the best way again to the 2018-19 season.
Did Tatum really feel that the three ball wasn’t there so he didn’t pressure it? Did it change into apparent that the right strategy was getting downhill and collapsing the protection again and again so he might spray passes out to elite shooters everywhere in the courtroom? Most likely a bit of little bit of column A and a bit of bit from column B. The truth that Tatum barely altered his strategy to raised influence the workforce in a means that I didn’t beforehand discover till diving into that is such a quintessential Jayson Tatum trait. He’s been miscast as a Kobe disciple when he’s actually a wing model of Tim Duncan.
Does Tatum’s taking pictures actually matter?
You need to now consider deep in your coronary heart that Tatum truly is an effective shooter. We are able to now transfer on to the extra attention-grabbing query of whether or not it truly issues if Jayson Tatum is an effective shooter. The reply isn’t any, it doesn’t matter.
To place it merely – if Jayson Tatum had hit another three pointer per sport within the playoffs, he would have shot 42% from three and the Celtics would have gone 16-3 on the best way to the title. That is what makes Jayson Tatum particular and distinctive as a participant. His influence shouldn’t be outlined by his three-point shot getting into.
So long as groups proceed to protect Tatum as if he can shoot, that’s all that actually issues. Simply the specter of Tatum’s pull-up three opens up all of the driving lanes we noticed within the Finals. He has to maintain taking them. And extra importantly, it doesn’t matter if Tatum isn’t an incredible shooter as a result of he’s wonderful at each different side of the sport of basketball which is why Tatum’s influence on profitable shouldn’t be on the mercy of the taking pictures variance gods.
That is simply absurd versatility and influence. Firstly, Tatum is guarding the opposing heart Evan Mobley, which isn’t one thing you may ask many wings within the NBA to do. Max Strus finds Isaac Okoro on a slip to the rim. Tatum helps off Mobley to guard the rim and forces the miss. This results in a wide-open Al Hoford three in transition, which he misses, however that’s okay as a result of Tatum will get the offensive rebound with a managed tip again to Horford. Al then finds Tatum within the put up. Tatum skips a go to Jrue Vacation within the nook for a large open three. That’s a five-point swing in a 1-1 playoff sequence on the highway. I’d like to spend extra time speaking about all of the alternative ways Jayson Tatum impacts a basketball sport, however we’ll have to save lots of that for an additional day.
It wasn’t an accident that Jayson Tatum led the Celtics in playoff factors, rebounds and assists; whether or not or not Tatum’s three-point shot falling or not was largely irrelevant. Clearly, the orange ball going within the basket extra typically could be higher for each Tatum and the Celtics. However while you’re the engine of probably the greatest offenses and defenses within the NBA, one further three-point basket per sport shouldn’t be meaningfully altering the fortunes of the Boston Celtics.
