Catching up on the Zips Top 100 Prospects

All-Star Week is the standard midpoint of the baseball season — although not the mathematical one – and with the MLB Draft including a bunch of latest prospects to the minors, it’s a great time to look again on the ZiPS prospect record from this previous winter. Some prospects have excelled within the majors and a few, properly, not a lot, however that’s why we name them prospects and never certainties. Decoding minor league statistics correctly has at all times been a problem, nevertheless it’s extra so lately with an uncommon divergence in offensive ranges between the majors and excessive minors, particularly the Triple-A leagues. An .850 OPS that will have been spectacular within the Worldwide League just a few years in the past isn’t that mouth-watering lately, whereas an ERA round 4 is unusually promising. ZiPS, naturally, has to translate minor league efficiency as a part of predicting how gamers will fare within the majors, and now that we have now public Statcast knowledge for the minors, there’s much more to dig into in 2024.

For every participant in final winter’s ZiPS High 100, I’m itemizing fast strains for his or her translated minor league efficiency (lower-case m), any main league efficiency, and lastly, a mix of the 2 to get one 2024 line (famous with a c).

As I’ve mentioned earlier than, Jackson Holliday may truly be underrated at this level. I acquired numerous complaints in regards to the “bearish” .255/.341/.381 projection for him coming into the season, however ZiPS (and I) shared the idea that folks had been coming too rapidly on him. He’s nonetheless extraordinarily more likely to be a incredible participant, however contemplating he’s a 20-year-old who blasted via 4 ranges of the minors, it’s not the weirdest factor ever that he’d see a consolidation season. That .336/.332 OBP/SLG isn’t actually that far behind his projection, particularly contemplating ZiPS anticipated the foremost league offensive setting to be higher than it has been this season.

Coby Mayo has had the higher season however nonetheless wouldn’t come near passing Holliday if I rerolled the total prime prospects proper now. James Wooden truly has surpassed Holliday, although that can solely final till he exceeds the rookie most and sheds his prospect standing; he was legitimately glorious within the minors this yr. The sheen has come off each Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter a bit of bit, whereas Jackson Chourio and Masyn Winn have carried out about as marketed. As movers go, Adael Amador and Pete Crow-Armstrong appear to be the 2 who will take the most important hit of this group earlier than subsequent yr’s rankings (if PCA hasn’t graduated). There hasn’t been as a lot ink about Emmanuel Rodriguez as I’d have anticipated this yr, even earlier than he injured his thumb final month. The Texas League, not like the Triple-A leagues, is a fairly low offensive setting, with a league OPS of simply .705, so his precise 1.100 OPS is fairly spectacular.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga have each carried out in addition to ZiPS anticipated. Whereas that’s hardly going out on a limb for Yamamoto, whom everybody appreciated, ZiPS was in on Imanaga very early. Paul Skenes, after all, has been fabulous, much more so than his top-notch translations from April and Could. I’d solely describe two of the pitchers on this record as unmitigated disappointments to this point in 2024, not less than from a projections standpoint: Each Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko will take fairly massive hits within the subsequent rankings. Andrew Painter will slide fairly a bit as properly, however it could be fairly churlish to name a pitcher a disappointment for being injured.

Amongst this tranche of prospects, Brooks Lee is having arguably essentially the most spectacular 2024, and he’s continued to hit since his call-up a few weeks in the past. Between Lee and the Twins’ taking Kaelen Culpepper with their first-round choose on Sunday, Edouard Julien may get misplaced within the shuffle rapidly in Minnesota; if I had been a GM of a staff in want of a second baseman, I’d give the Twins name to see if he can rule once more on my membership. Anyway, I truly anticipated ZiPS to return round faster on Dylan Crews, however he’s probably not torching minor league pitching as I believed he would. Davis Schneider has lengthy been a ZiPS favourite, however he’s cooled off since a scorching run proper after he earned extra taking part in time via the method of elimination in Toronto’s struggling lineup.

Jett Williams inevitably will drop significantly after a wrist harm ruined his 2024 season, and Kevin Alcantára was one of many massive ZiPS droppers when it comes to future WAR. Whereas Samuel Basallo is just not matching his breakout 2023 season, he’s nonetheless a 19-year-old catcher, so he received’t sag within the rankings too far.

Taking a look at this group’s long-term projections, it’s nearly surprising how little motion there’s been within the long-term projections. Of those 21 pitchers, solely three have had their five-year projected WAR transfer by greater than two WAR. The primary is Drew Thorpe, who was stable for Birmingham, and his poor Okay/BB ratios within the majors to this point in all probability aren’t consultant of his talents. The opposite is a a lot much less heralded prospect, Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, a fairly Doug Fister-y prospect (is {that a} authorized adjective), who depends on management and changeups. The excessive minors may be merciless for such a pitcher, however he’s survived not less than one of many jumps, to Double-A, which improves his long-term outlook. On the flip facet, Mick Abel’s command has continued to deteriorate, with each a seven-walk and a six-walk outing within the final month. It could be a shock if he didn’t fall fully off the ZiPS High 100 for 2025.

It hasn’t proven but within the majors, however Kyle Manzardo’s minor league efficiency this yr earlier than his call-up worn out the true “meh” feeling that ZiPS had about his 2023. Submit-suspension Noelvi Marte has been fairly awful, although we have now sufficient knowledge from gamers after drug suspensions to dismiss any histrionics that he’s struggled due to the dearth of efficiency enhancement. Final yr was largely the season that ZiPS got here round on Colson Montgomery after being later than virtually everybody/every thing else, and the outcome has been a bit of how I really feel after consuming a scorching canine from a gasoline station. Joey Ortiz is the massive winner on this group, contending for the NL Rookie of the 12 months award, and Kyle Teel should see a bump in subsequent yr’s prospect rankings as properly. Like Basallo, Ethan Salas’ bat has backslid a bit, nevertheless it’s not price obsessing over how a teenage catching prospect is hitting. Andy Pages hasn’t matched his minor league begin this yr, however he’s been not less than respectable.

Heston Kjerstad simply missed the general ZiPS gainers record, but given Baltimore’s crowded offense, he’s nonetheless had hassle getting a full serving of plate appearances within the majors. If the O’s land Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, Kjerstad needs to be one of many names more likely to be included, particularly for the Tigers contemplating they’re much extra motivated so as to add main league-ready expertise than the hopeless Sox. ZiPS was as massive fan of Michael Busch, a type of low-ceiling, high-floor hitters with none actual positional worth, and he’s carried out about as properly for the Cubs as might have fairly been anticipated.

ZiPS hoped for extra energy from Matt Shaw, and he’ll in all probability drop from the highest 100 except his trajectory adjustments once more. However he received’t drop so far as Luisangel Acuña, who has solely a 73 wRC+ in Triple-A, although the Mets don’t truly appear disenchanted along with his efficiency. At the same time as offense is up throughout Triple-A, Angel Martínez was having a dynamite season earlier than he was referred to as up; you shouldn’t dismiss a 147 wRC+ at Triple-A and not using a fairly compelling motive. He’s additionally continued to hit within the majors, and I now really feel kinda responsible that I didn’t give ZiPS some new RAM to reward it for being so excessive on him coming into the season.