Celtics’ double big experiment: is it working?

When you’ve been watching the Boston Celtics so much this season – or studying CelticsBlog – you should have observed that Joe Mazzulla and his teaching employees have elevated their utilization of the double huge lineup idea. Based on Cleansing The Glass, the Celtics have performed 1,255 possessions with two huge males on the ground and a couple of,622 with just one. Primarily, the Celtics spend about one-third of their time with two bigs.

Once they play with one huge, Al Horford has been the lone huge man for 828 possessions, Luke Kornet for 680, Kristaps Porzingis for 588, and Neemias Queta for 526. The rotation is kind of blended on account of accidents, relaxation wanted for Horford, and ranging matchups. The double huge lineup additionally entails varied mixtures, however more often than not (985 possessions), Horford is the second huge.

Why does it matter?

Now that we all know the Celtics are alternating between double and single huge lineups – and that almost all double huge lineups function Horford because the second huge man – we have to study the numbers to know how every strategy has labored this season. To evaluate the impression of those tactical choices, we’ll analyze spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle. These are key elements of recent basketball, and the variety of huge males on the ground immediately influences all three.

Extra dimension theoretically improves rim safety as a result of it permits for an enormous man to remain close to the rim as a security. Rebounding additionally tends to enhance with dimension, serving to win the possession battle. Moreover, dimension can crowd the paint and generate extra turnovers.

Nonetheless, extra dimension can shrink spacing. It’s uncommon to have huge males who’re revered threats past the three-point line. Thus, the extra huge males on the ground, the trickier it turns into to keep up optimum spacing for driving lanes.

This was one cause Brad Stevens and his employees traded for Kristaps Porzingis final summer time. With Porzingis or Horford because the lone huge, the spacing is much better than with two bigs on the courtroom. When Horford performs with Porzingis, defenses have a tendency to depart Horford open from three, making his taking pictures extra impactful when he’s the lone huge man.

A single-big lineup additionally presents defensive flexibility. With Porzingis because the lone huge, the Celtics can swap screens whereas retaining him near the rim or play drop protection in pick-and-roll conditions. When Horford performs alongside wings and guards, he can swap on each display screen or drop as effectively. With this context in thoughts, we’ll consider spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle for the completely different approaches.

Is the spacing actually higher with one huge?

The screenshots above illustrate why double huge lineups appear to create spacing points. Nonetheless, we want numbers to verify this, as a result of conclusions based mostly on visuals alone might be deceptive. To judge the Celtics’ spacing, we’ll study rim frequency, effectivity, and the power to attract fouls – primarily, how usually and successfully the Celtics assault the rim.

The info shortly highlights that the Celtics’ spacing is greatest when Porzingis is the lone huge. With him, the Celtics obtain their highest rim frequency, effectivity, and free-throw technology. Conversely, when Horford is the lone huge, the Celtics lack rim stress, with solely 20% of photographs inside 4 toes of the basket and simply 17 free throws made per 100 area purpose makes an attempt.

Double huge lineups additionally present worse spacing in comparison with lineups with Porzingis alone. Nonetheless, the numbers with Horford because the lone huge and people with double bigs are fairly comparable. This may be attributed to 2 important components. First, Horford is much less revered as a shooter than Porzingis. Second, Porzingis’ positioning usually maximizes spacing in comparison with Horford being within the nook more often than not.

Porzingis creates extra spacing as a result of he positions himself one cross away from a drive, whereas Horford is usually stationed within the nook. A shooter within the nook supplies much less spacing than one positioned two steps past the arc on the wing or within the slot.

Horford’s ground spacing doesn’t range a lot whether or not he’s a lone huge or a part of a double huge lineup. Thus, it is sensible that spacing isn’t as robust with him in comparison with Porzingis. Offensively, we will conclude that double huge lineups don’t optimize spacing in comparison with a lone Porzingis. Nonetheless, spacing is analogous whether or not Horford performs as a middle or energy ahead. Now that we’ve analyzed rim assaults, let’s study rim safety.

Is the double huge lineup higher at defending the rim?

Defensively, the Celtics look very completely different relying on who performs heart and what number of bigs are on the ground. The goal is usually to maintain an enormous man close to the rim or swap to forestall defensive gaps. It’s no shock, then, that the numbers differ considerably relying on the strategy.

With Porzingis because the lone huge, the Celtics excel defensively, decreasing opponents’ rim effectivity and makes an attempt. On common, NBA groups take 32% of their photographs on the rim at 66% effectivity, however with Porzingis anchoring the protection, the Celtics’ numbers are elite. In distinction, Horford’s lone huge numbers clarify why he’s usually paired with one other heart this season.

As Horford ages, switch-heavy defenses grow to be much less efficient. He struggles extra in opposition to fast wings than earlier than. Whereas the Celtics use him in drop protection, he lacks the size and instincts of elite drop bigs like Porzingis. Pairing him with one other huge helps offset these limitations.

Defensively, Porzingis as a lone huge outperforms different approaches. Nonetheless, the double huge lineup has its benefits within the possession battle.

The double huge lineup generates extra possessions

Regardless of its drawbacks, akin to spacing and rim safety, the double huge lineup has upsides. It excels at producing additional possessions.

Double huge lineups are extremely efficient at offensive rebounding, rating within the 86th percentile amongst lineups with over 100 possessions. Moreover, they safe extra defensive rebounds and generate extra turnovers, usually resulting in quick breaks.

Surprisingly, the Celtics are higher in transition once they play greater. By successful the possession battle, they create extra transition alternatives regardless of the perceived limitations of dimension.

What to conclude?

Issues about Porzingis’ lone huge minutes and his unfavorable web ranking are overblown. The Celtics have merely skilled unhealthy taking pictures luck when he’s on the ground. With opponents taking pictures 42% from three in these lineups in comparison with the Celtics’ 31%, regression to the imply will doubtless restore steadiness.

The double huge lineup additionally has its strengths. It helps protect Horford’s legs, wins possession battles, and supplies depth. With Kornet and Queta exceeding expectations, a wholesome Horford and Porzingis, and Tillman prepared if wanted, the Celtics have one of many deepest and most versatile huge man rotations within the league.

When the playoffs arrive, this versatility can be invaluable in adapting to completely different matchups.