There have been loads of huge performs within the Thunder’s comeback victory over Boston Sunday afternoon, however two, particularly, stand out.
First, Kenrich Williams poked the ball away from Jaylen Brown. Cason Wallace picked it up after which beasted Jrue Vacation in transition for a layup that gave the Thunder a two-point lead:
Then, simply minutes later, Lu Dort stole a shocked Derrick White’s cookies like a tardy Grinch and strolled down the court docket for a simple dunk:
The gang drowned out the published, and regardless that the sport was nonetheless tight, there was a palpable momentum shift. The Thunder knew they’d it.
The turnover sport was a humorous factor yesterday. Below Joe Mazzulla, Boston by no means forces turnovers. Because the 2022-23 season, the Celtics have ranked twenty sixth, twenty seventh, and twenty fourth in compelled turnover fee. It hasn’t harm their general defensive ranking (third, third, and seventh this season), however Mazzulla desires his guys positionally disciplined to pressure opponents into unhealthy pictures. The Celtics by no means enable nook threes and had notched 4 straight seasons as a top-three workforce in opposing rim frequency till falling to eleventh this yr.
What if he gave the Celtics a little bit extra leash to gamble and chase turnovers?
I hear you. The Celtics technically compelled 15 turnovers yesterday to OKC’s 16, however that stat is deceptive. Turnovers may be damaged down into live-ball and dead-ball classes. Reside-ball TOs are usually steals that preserve the ball in play, whereas these of the dead-ball selection lead to a clock stoppage.
Whereas each are helpful, live-ball turnovers are considerably extra so. An older examine from Inpredictable recommended that live-ball turnovers create 1.2 factors per possession, whereas dead-ball turnovers solely lead to 0.9 factors per possession (worse than the anticipated offense after a made shot or defensive rebound).
The reason being undoubtedly apparent. Reside-ball turnovers begin quick breaks, whereas dead-ball turnovers give defenses an opportunity to set themselves. Forcing turnovers is all the time a very good factor, however producing live-ball turnovers is among the largest swings in basketball.
Boston solely generated six live-ball turnovers within the marquee matchup, whereas the Thunder notched 11 steals. Relatedly, the Thunder scored 22 factors in transition, together with a whopping 13 within the fourth quarter! The Celtics solely had 11 for the sport.
Mazzulla’s dogmatic insistence on self-discipline has yielded outcomes, however we shouldn’t assume {that a} Celtics workforce full of clever defenders will essentially compromise their integrity when chasing havoc. Many of the finest defenses within the league have closely compelled turnovers.
This yr alone, 5 of the highest six defenses additionally rank within the high eight for forcing turnovers (and OKC and Orlando, the very best and second-best defenses, are additionally first and second in that class). Final yr, 5 of the highest six defenses had been within the high 10. And the yr earlier than that, eight of the highest 10 defenses had been within the high 10 for compelled turnovers, with solely Boston and Milwaukee excepting.
This can be a theme; groups that pressure a ton of turnovers are often actually good defenses. Boston itself was a kind of groups; beneath Ime Udoka and Brad Stevens, the Cs routinely ranked as an elite protection with above-average turnover-forcing marks.
Seventh isn’t any slouch, however anybody watching the video games can inform Boston isn’t fairly as hermetic on the level of assault or with their assist schemes. I’m not saying Celtics gamers ought to chase the ball round like a bunch of golden retrievers. However Derrick White, Jrue Vacation, and the Jays are long-armed and clever gamers. Groups have slowly found out methods to assault Boston’s protection (can the Celtics save Charles Lee from hell Charlotte?).
Why can’t they press the passing lanes a little bit extra, notably when Porzingis is wholesome and supplies sturdy backline rim safety? Why can’t they take some tactical digs on the ballhandler, punching on the ball like an NFL security? Why can’t they incorporate extra semi-spontaneous double groups to panic ballhandlers?
Boston is locked in a battle for seeding within the East. This isn’t final season, the place they ran away with the league and had a margin for error that took up your entire paper. They don’t wish to experiment for experimentation’s sake. However with greater than half the season left, Mazzulla has loads of time to calm down the foundations and see what occurs.
That course of has already began. Since Christmas Day, the Celtics have really ranked 14th in forcing turnovers whereas sustaining a seventh-rated protection. After all, a few of that’s schedule-based, however Mazzulla has already admitted to an intentionality.
When requested why the workforce had dedicated so many fouls towards the Indiana Pacers just lately, Mazzulla responded that they had been “making an attempt to pressure extra turnovers, making an attempt to be extra energetic…there’s a few issues we gotta work on, and forcing turnovers is one among them. That’s gonna result in a little bit little bit of moments of unsolidness, which hopefully creates turnovers, however tonight it didn’t.”
It’s good the teaching employees acknowledges this, and I hope the workforce’s current struggles within the win/loss column don’t trigger Mazzulla to revert to outdated habits. I can’t assist pondering that Boston’s protection has a better ceiling if they might embrace a little bit extra chaos. The personnel is there. Vacation is getting older, but it surely’s not a coincidence he’s posted the 2 lowest steal charges of his profession since shifting to Boston. Jaylen Brown has had moments of very good on-ball stress this season; I’d prefer to see extra, even when his very good foul fee falls to simply fairly good. Derrick White is commonly positioned because the low-man helper to reap the benefits of his extraordinary rim-protection instincts, however I’d wager he might play passing lane bandit, too, if given the chance.
The Celtics’ protection is much from damaged. That doesn’t imply it may possibly’t be improved, nevertheless. With loads of video games left, I’d prefer to see the Celtics take a web page from each the Thunder and my four-year-old by changing into a little bit stickier-fingered.
