On Sunday, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs face the Buffalo Payments. We welcome Matt Byham of Buffalo Rumblings — our sister SB Nation web site overlaying the Payments — for 5 Questions with the Enemy.
1) The Payments are having a wonderful season, however the losses to Baltimore and Houston stand out. What’s an inexpensive response to the “not beating high quality groups” narrative?
It’s actually troublesome to win within the NFL, the place the very best of the very best are scattered amongst 32 groups. I see a reasonable quantity of concern within the Payments shedding to Baltimore and Houston, nevertheless it’s extra about how they misplaced than as a result of they misplaced. Loads are fast to say Buffalo was shell-shocked after Henry demolished the sphere on Baltimore’s first offensive play. Groups don’t lose as a result of the primary play went poorly, and it’s a story I consider followers use to manage. They have been inside 11 factors and driving properly into the third quarter — however teaching bought too cute and catastrophe struck. That’s the kind of momentum swing that may devastate any group.
I might go on for hundreds of phrases why I consider the Payments ought to have performed for OT in opposition to the Houston Texans (however enjoying to tie in opposition to the Chiefs throughout final season’s playoffs was a deadly plan), however in actuality, no end result is assured. I simply most popular Buffalo’s probabilities to regroup and put collectively a resourceful drive in higher circumstances in opposition to Houston in additional time.
Happily, the Ravens and Texans are in playoff-seeding rearview mirror in the intervening time. Might Buffalo see both/each groups within the postseason? Definitely — however I anticipate the Payments can have a response to what failed them in each regular-season losses. Generally shedding to your opponent earlier than the playoffs start proves most helpful, as Chiefs Kingdom can attest. How Buffalo responds to these tells of Baltimore and Houston might outline their most essential matchups.
2) How do you anticipate the Payments to reshuffle their offense whereas doubtless enjoying with out a number of key items?
At first, the Payments’ passing sport runs by means of slot receiver Khalil Shakir, who can do all the pieces properly. He’s not simply an inside receiver between the sticks. It’s truthful to say he resembles the likes of Wes Welker, and Cole Beasley — even a little bit of Hines Ward — whereas proving to be a nightmare to deal with with the ball in his palms. He additionally catches virtually all the pieces thrown his means (48 receptions on 54 targets in 2024; 97 catches on 117 targets in his profession).
I assume the excellent news is that the Payments aren’t immediately attempting to determine the right way to exchange Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Really, they’ve been engaged on doing simply that since Week 1.
Enjoying with out rookie extensive receiver Keon Coleman stings as a result of he was actually starting to prepare dinner — however all season, the “everyone eats” mantra has allowed Buffalo’s depth to see loads of snaps and targets. Meaning extensive receiver Mack Hollins will get to choose up the place Coleman left off, and he’s greater than comfy in that position.
As for Amari Cooper, it’s irritating they traded for him after which he injured his wrist six quarters into his Payments tenure. He might play this weekend, nevertheless it’s going to come back all the way down to ache administration. If he doesn’t play, it received’t be the tip of the world for Allen and the offense as a result of they’ve been down this street sufficient. Hopefully for Buffalo, extensive receiver Curtis Samuel is ready to step up in what’s been a reasonably disappointing free-agent signing for the group.
Tight finish Dalton Kincaid is a serious loss for Allen as a result of he’s performed such an enormous position by way of goal share. On the similar time, Kincaid has been double-teamed far too actually because defenses haven’t revered the surface receiver choices. That’s clearly an enormous a part of why Cooper’s on the town. Dawson Knox is greater than able to step up in Kincaid’s absence — and he has some historical past of enjoying properly in opposition to the Chiefs. It’s additionally doubtless that Quintin Morris finds elevated snaps, and he’s confirmed to be a dependable pink zone goal for Allen.
3) What are Buffalo’s strengths and weaknesses on protection?
At each stage of protection, they’ve been elite this season at creating turnovers and unfavorable performs because of peanut punches and by stripping the ball. There are occasions the place 4 or 5 defenders is perhaps attempting to get the soccer on the bottom.
There are many shops writing concerning the line of defense, however they’re not proficient sack artists as a lot as they’re at creating chaos for the soccer after the snap — hurried throws to incomplete routes, flushing the quarterback out to poor reads, and batting passes on the line — plus leveraging for fumbles and turnovers.
Many can be fast to level to the center of Buffalo’s protection as its greatest positional power in linebackers Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano (when wholesome and accessible), Dorian Williams (now in for Milano), and Johnson at nickel. Add in cornerbacks Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas and it’s a unit constructed to make life troublesome by means of the air.
However prioritizing cross protection means their greatest weak spot has been an noticed love/hate relationship with run protection. They’re liable to giving up enormous chunks, however more often than not don’t surrender lengthy touchdowns.
Their athletic center hasn’t at all times labored properly in opposition to elite tight ends, particularly Travis Kelce. Total, they only don’t at all times match up properly in opposition to extra bodily groups/particular person gamers.
4) No operating again has reached 60 yards on the bottom in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. What’s the case that James Prepare dinner would be the first to take action?
James Prepare dinner is a home-run menace each time he touches the soccer, so he might hit 60 yards on one journey to the home. Prepare dinner has run for 71 or extra yards in 5 of 10 video games to date. If I’m to make a case to you that he would be the first to do it, that’s due to offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s dedication to establishing the run. It’s something aside from assured that Prepare dinner will discover explosive moments in opposition to the top-ranked protection, however he’s change into a much more bodily and full runner than in earlier seasons.
However right here’s the factor: Buffalo doesn’t must depend on one again carrying the torch on the bottom. Prepare dinner’s backups — rookie Ray Davis (an actual throwback, bodily runner) and Ty Johnson (one other dual-threat who’s quicker than Prepare dinner) — are totally able to enjoying the featured again position. However Prepare dinner’s going to get his touches, and he would possibly shock.
The runner to be careful for on this race may very well be Josh Allen.
5) How do you see this one enjoying out?
I see no cause to foretell issues play out otherwise than they’ve earlier than, which implies it’s anybody’s sport — and can doubtless come all the way down to the tip of the sport.
You must win within the common season to qualify for elimination-round soccer. There’s little doubt that key gamers from either side keep in mind how issues performed out final January — from the lead-up the place nationwide narratives swarmed across the Chiefs having not performed a real street playoff sport to the Taylor Swift sideshow and people unsavory followers throwing snowballs at Mahomes and firm after the sport. That’s with out even mentioning how intense the motion was on the sphere — and the way Buffalo couldn’t get off its personal turf, defensively.
I’m sure the Chiefs are able to remind Payments Mafia who the champs are, and I’m simply as certain that the Payments are sick of shedding to the Chiefs in massive moments. This appears like an enormous second, in methods. Proper? Kansas Metropolis is undefeated — since final Christmas. Buffalo was purported to be “re-tooling” and most predicted a down yr. But right here we’re once more, with the Payments and Chiefs on the high of the AFC.
I perceive why Arrowhead Pleasure has written concerning the group going undefeated right through the Tremendous Bowl, however I consider it’s far too early to debate it. I’d even be stunned if the locker room is concentrated on it, since so many gamers perceive attending to the sport in any means potential is extra essential than fashion factors on the way in which. The query turns into how essential profitable is to both facet, and whether or not season-long errors and limitations sit this one out.
It truly is anybody’s sport. The Payments are proficient turnover creators, and the Chiefs are eighth-worst at freely giving the soccer. It’s going to come back all the way down to turnovers and selecting up factors on each drive potential — ideally profitable the pink zone battle. Kansas Metropolis has solely hit 30 factors as soon as this season, whereas the Payments have hit 30 or extra factors in seven video games, together with the final 4 weeks.
I don’t assume anybody can be shocked if an 8-2 Payments group handed a 9-0 Chiefs group its first lack of the season. Nor will anybody gasp at Kansas Metropolis bettering to 10-0. You could be sure that Mahomes and firm are as soon as once more motivated by that “underdog” narrative, even when it’s merely as a consequence of their being the street group this week.
I anticipate this sport to be much more entertaining than Tyson vs. Paul, and I’m grateful it’s not streaming solely on Netflix.
Make sure to try the solutions I gave to their questions by clicking right here.
