Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Earlier than the AFC Championship nearly two weeks in the past, nearly all of our Arrowhead Pleasure panelists picked the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs to defeat the Buffalo Payments in a detailed sport. For the third time this season (and the second consecutive sport), our combination prediction for a 30-25 Kansas Metropolis victory had eight factors of error from the 32-29 ultimate: it missed the purpose unfold by two factors, the Chiefs’ rating by two and the Payments’ rating by 4. Virtually one in 5 of our readers picked Buffalo to win — most calling for a detailed sport.

On Sunday, the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles will host the AFC Champion Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

In line with FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas Metropolis is favored by 1.5 factors.

Let’s see what the workers — and our readers — take into consideration the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

You would possibly take a look at the offensive expertise on this sport and assume a shootout is coming, however I feel will probably be a low-possession sport. The Eagles need to run the soccer and keep away from committing turnovers. On protection, their fashion is to surrender lengthy drives of beneath throws, forcing the opponent to matriculate the ball downfield. The Chiefs are high quality enjoying that fashion — and can try to restrict Philadelphia’s explosive runs. I feel we’re going to see an superior sport from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Whereas it may not be one of the best statline for a Mahomes Tremendous Bowl, the large performs he’ll make on third down will swing the sport. So long as the sport is tight — and he could make high-leverage performs within the fourth quarter — he’ll do it. I feel he’ll cement his standing as the best quarterback ever.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 20

I am sure that the majority Kansas Metropolis gamers very a lot need to declare a 3rd straight Tremendous Bowl win. However the staff has already made historical past by changing into the one back-to-back Tremendous Bowl winner to succeed in the subsequent title sport. Meaning the strain is off — and there’s no extra harmful opponent than a Chiefs staff with nothing to lose. There’s no query the Eagles will probably be a robust opponent. Even so, I don’t assume this sport will probably be as shut as many individuals assume.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 17

In two of the Eagles’ three losses this season, working again Saquon Barkley was held below 100 yards. That might be the important thing to a Kansas Metropolis victory. If the Chiefs can soar out to an early lead — forcing Philadelphia right into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy assault — they’ll have an opportunity to regulate the sport extra simply than many count on. I imagine the Chiefs will do exactly that. With historical past on the road, Kansas Metropolis will ship its finest efficiency of the season, enjoying with sharp execution throughout the board. Count on the Chiefs to incessantly put the Eagles in third-and-long conditions, get stops on protection and dictate the tempo. Kansas Metropolis will make historical past with a surprisingly simple win.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 20

It doesn’t matter what the storylines have been throughout the 2024 NFL season, the matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles appears like probably the most star-studded, talent-centric matchup we might have. We’re going to see elite gamers battling on each side of the ball. There’s a case to be made that Philadelphia presents extra of those playmakers, however that’s the place Kansas Metropolis’s teaching will stability the dimensions. However it would finally be Mahomes who suggestions the sport towards the Chiefs as he completes his Michael Jordan arc and makes NFL historical past. In key moments within the crimson zone, third down and fourth down, he’ll get the job executed.

Chiefs 32, Eagles 28

In 334 B.C., Alexander the Nice instructed his males to burn their ships. “We are going to both return dwelling in Persian ships — or we are going to die right here,” he stated. 1,850 years later, Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés employed the identical tactic in Mexico as he started his marketing campaign in opposition to the Aztecs. That is the mentality the Chiefs will want. There isn’t any going again from this second. They’ll both declare immortality or be eternally remembered because the staff that got here up brief. It’s the Chiefs’ option to make. It at all times has been. Mahomes and his offense have to methodically transfer the soccer downfield. In the meantime, coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive gambles have to repay in massive moments — like they’ve all season — as his unit stops Eagles working again Saquon Barkley. This can be a staff of future. Get able to see a three-peat!

Chiefs 27, Eagles 23

Within the NFC Championship, the Eagles seemed unstoppable. However I nonetheless belief the Chiefs to keep away from the turnovers that plagued the Washington Commanders — to not point out the late miscues the Los Angeles Rams dedicated the week earlier than. Similar to Christian McCaffrey did final yr, Barkley will see some good moments. However I imagine Kansas Metropolis will concentrate on environment friendly drives that reduce his alternatives for harm. Through the second half, nonetheless, I count on the Chiefs’ protection will make this a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Hurts is nice, however Mahomes will make the additional two or three key performs to assert the win.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 24

How do I even go about predicting this sport? Andy Reid stated the Chiefs have a Tremendous Bowl routine, so why can’t I? So I seemed again at some earlier predictions for the championship sport. It seems the Chiefs simply performed a Tremendous Bowl in opposition to these Eagles a few years in the past — and my prediction was fairly strong.

This sport might truly go both means. It’s a uncommon Tremendous Bowl that really has the 2 finest groups within the league going through off — and they’re very evenly matched on paper. However the sport isn’t performed on paper. Those that argue that Philadelphia has one of the best roster from No. 2 to No. 53 are lacking the purpose. It’s the quarterback — together with the pinnacle coach — who matter probably the most. And one simply shouldn’t guess in opposition to the MVP and Andy Reid. Given the Tyreek Hill commerce and the youth motion, After profitable the final two Tremendous Bowls, we will’t count on a Chiefs Tremendous Bowl three-peat this yr — however now that the chance is on the desk, it feels just like the staff completely can’t let it slip away. When the Chiefs have the ball, Mahomes, Kadarius Toney Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce could have loads of alternatives to get an early lead. Then the Kansas Metropolis protection can concentrate on stopping the run, forcing Jalen Hurts to try to win the sport along with his arm. That can permit Steve Spagnuolo to unleash the blitz to stomp out any hope for a comeback.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 24

Two years after their first championship matchup in Tremendous Bowl LVII, I feel each defenses have steadily improved, and I count on a lower-scoring sport than the primary time round. Patrick Mahomes has been speaking about this sport since shortly after final yr’s Tremendous Bowl. I feel Mahomes outplays Jalen Hurts within the greatest spot possible, prepared the Chiefs to NFL immortality.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 24

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists count on the Chiefs to win 28-23.

What do you assume?

For the AFC Championship, Nate Christensen (30-27) and Pete Sweeney (31-30) turned within the closest picks. Every missed by 4 whole factors. Matt Stgner’s name for a 35-28 Kansas Metropolis victory was second-best with eight factors of error.

To calculate a prediction’s factors of error, the variations between the prediction and the precise rating in level unfold, dwelling staff rating and away staff rating are added collectively. For instance, a prediction requires a 17-10 Chiefs win. They find yourself profitable 16-10, so there have been two factors of error: the purpose unfold was off by one level, the Kansas Metropolis rating missed by one level and the opponent’s rating was predicted accurately. But when the Chiefs lose the sport 17-10, there have been 28 factors of error within the prediction: the purpose unfold was off by 14 (the distinction between +7 and -7) and each scores missed by 7.