The Milwaukee Brewers, in latest historical past, are typically a bit gentle each on offense and within the payroll division. Which makes Christian Yelich — the crew’s chief in batting common, on-base share, and slugging, and the recipient of practically 1 / 4 of the crew’s main league wage expenditure — a pivotal determine for the franchise. Maybe to an extent unmatched by another place participant on a contending crew. (That’d be an fascinating weblog for an additional day.)
On Tuesday, the Brewers confronted a scenario tailored for Yelich: Main 1-0, runners on first and second, two outs, the right-handed Julian Merryweather on the mound. Milwaukee had struggled to scratch out even that one run, and only a single by Yelich would’ve given the Brewers bullpen room to calm down. And but, out of the dugout stepped the right-handed Rhys Hoskins, not Yelich. Hoskins struck out, and the Brewers rapidly introduced that their star left fielder was experiencing again tightness.
Oh, crap.
The information bought worse within the chilly gentle of day, as on Wednesday, Yelich revealed to reporters that he’d been enjoying via a again harm of late, and regardless of his greatest efforts, he’d reached a degree the place he may not simply grit his tooth and muscle via it. Yelich’s again has been a persistent drawback all through his profession — he’s had again problems with some type or different in seven of his 12 main league seasons. Most just lately, he missed 23 video games in April and Might of this yr with a decrease again pressure. (For this reason Yelich solely leads the Brewers’ offense in price stats and never actually each class.)
And though Yelich began the All-Star Recreation final week, he’s been out and in of the lineup round that point. Since July 11, he’s simply 1-for-19. He’s additionally sat out two of eight video games, after which there’s the pinch-hitting incident from Tuesday. So clearly one thing’s not proper. And this doesn’t sound like one thing a pair Advil and a jar of Tiger Balm can repair. Headed to see a specialist, Yelich is contemplating the potential for an intervention aimed not on the quickest return attainable, however towards a everlasting resolution to his again issues. In different phrases, season-ending surgical procedure.
This improvement comes at an inconvenient time for Yelich, who’s (or was) having a sorely wanted bounceback yr. As you keep in mind, after Yelich arrived in Milwaukee forward of the 2018 season, he spent two years lighting the world on hearth. In 2018 and 2019, he hit a mixed .327/.415/.631 with 80 residence runs, 63 doubles, and 52 stolen bases in 58 makes an attempt. He completed first, then second, in MVP voting, and earned a nine-year, $215 million contract extension.
The following 5 years have been a bit uneven, and marked by the utter disappearance of the ability that had made him top-of-the-line gamers within the Nationwide League within the late 2010s. However in 2024, he’s been a monster: .315/.406/.504 with 11 residence runs and 21 steals in 22 makes an attempt. He’s, as of this writing, main the NL in each batting common and OBP. That All-Star beginning berth wasn’t simply the product of nostalgia and title recognition — it was deserved.
So let’s assume the worst, that Yelich goes to be out for some time, and that this late within the yr “some time” means the steadiness of the season. Brewers supervisor Pat Murphy was fairly candid about the place a Yelich harm leaves his membership: “For what Yeli does for this lineup and this clubhouse, I don’t know there’s too many gamers who can change him… That is big, regardless of how critical. No matter variety of video games we lose him for, it’s critical.” Even within the context of the losses the Brewers have already suffered — particularly on the pitching facet — Yelich is almost irreplaceable.
Murphy stated the one means the Brewers may conjure up a like-for-like substitute can be to commerce for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And whereas Murphy was absolutely being hyperbolic, I’ve heard worse concepts. Yelich and Guerrero may play completely different positions, hit from completely different sides of the plate, and look as completely different as any two gamers within the league (if you happen to put the 2 of them subsequent to one another it’d give off main Bert-and-Ernie vibes), however they each get on base and hit the ball exhausting on the bottom so much.
If there’s excellent news for Milwaukee on this harm, it’s that Yelich performs a simple defensive place. That offers them loads of choices for a substitute. Particularly as a result of Milwaukee’s present first base and DH scenario — Hoskins and Jake Bauers — may additionally use an improve. The Brewers at the moment are in a scenario the place nearly any bat on the commerce market may assist them paper over the cracks. Brent Rooker’s nonetheless on the market, as is the Marlins’ cavalcade of our bodies. (Actually Yelich is a reminder of how Milwaukee has profited from buying and selling with Miami up to now.)
Extra seemingly, the Brewers will search an answer internally. Partially as a result of they aren’t historically within the enterprise of buying stars — particularly because the pandemic — however as a result of outfield is one place the place the Brewers have truly spent a ton of assets since buying Yelich.
Milwaukee’s present outfield setup of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio consists of two latest first-round picks and a world free agent who garnered a seven-figure bonus as an beginner, adopted by an $82 million contract extension earlier than he took his first large league at-bat.
The Brewers love younger, athletic outfielders — all three of Mitchell, Frelick, and Chourio have ninetieth percentile-or-better dash velocity. So does Blake Perkins, who’d performed all of two innings because the break earlier than Yelich’s harm however began in heart for Milwaukee on Wednesday. In case you have been nonetheless unconvinced the Brewers have a kind, they only spent the no. 17 decide within the draft on Texas excessive schooler Braylon Payne, one of many speediest gamers within the class. (Payne, who was born in August 2006, God assist us all, is clearly not going to be an answer anytime quickly.)
Joey Wiemer may also run, although he confirmed in 132 video games final yr that hitting is a special challenge. Nonetheless, he’s placing up large on-base numbers (.376 OBP, although with a SLG of simply .365) in Triple-A, which makes him an choice if the Brewers want a physique.
I’m positive Murphy and Brewers GM Matt Arnold would love nothing greater than to see some mixture of their younger spark plug-type outfielders flourish over the subsequent two months. Mitchell has solely just lately damaged into the on a regular basis lineup, however Chourio, Perkins, and Frelick all have someplace within the neighborhood of 300 plate appearances this yr. The outcomes have been… OK: Matching wRC+ marks of 96 for Chourio and Perkins, 98 for Frelick.
If the Brewers need to get artistic, they might additionally draw from their catching depth so as to add some pop to the lineup. When Yelich went on the IL, the corresponding roster transfer was the activation of Gary Sánchez. Which means Milwaukee is at the moment carrying three catchers: Sánchez, William Contreras, and Eric Haase. And considerably improbably, all three of them can hit. (Or not less than they’ve hit inside latest reminiscence.) Haase and Contreras even have not less than token outfield expertise within the majors, not that the Brewers are prone to inform their franchise backstop to ditch his gear and get out in left. Extra seemingly Haase or Sánchez finally ends up seeing extra pinch hitting alternatives to steadiness out a abruptly light-weight beginning outfield.
After which there’s Milwaukee’s biggest asset in weathering Yelich’s absence: A six-game lead within the NL Central with 61 video games left to play. Assuming a distinction of about 80 factors of OBP between Yelich and — for the sake of argument — Perkins, and 4 plate appearances a recreation, downgrading from an All-Star to one of many youngsters ought to value the Brewers… let’s name it 20 further outs over the subsequent two months and alter. it up shut, you’d by no means know the distinction. Even in a worst-case state of affairs, different stuff goes to must go flawed to maintain the Brewers from profitable the division.
In fact, if you happen to’re studying this you in all probability know what occurs to the Brewers as soon as they make the playoffs. Since that run to Recreation 7 of the 2018 NLCS — I liked that crew, for what it’s value. They have been a lot enjoyable to look at — Milwaukee has made the playoffs 4 instances in 5 years. The Brewers have didn’t win a collection in these 4 journeys to the postseason, and are 1-8 on an individual-game stage regardless of by no means permitting greater than six runs in a recreation. That’s as a result of, in these 9 video games, they’ve scored a grand whole of 16 runs and been shut out 3 times.
Murphy’s proper: Yelich’s loss goes to be deeply felt within the clubhouse and on an intangible stage. And over a protracted time frame there’s no option to change his bat with out making a significant transfer. The Brewers will in all probability be tremendous for the remainder of the common season. However within the playoffs, the place runs are tougher to come back by, is a special story. Think about a scenario much like the one the Brewers confronted on Tuesday: The eighth inning of a 1-0 recreation, two runners on base, two outs. If that comes up within the playoffs, that’s the place they’ll actually miss Yelich.
