Do the Celtics need to use Jayson Tatum more often to win?

DENVER — The Celtics have shifted to taking part in Jayson Tatum for everything of first quarters this season after letting Jaylen Brown set the tone lately. It has allowed Tatum to extend his scoring, achieve and preserve early momentum in video games, whereas Brown has made probably the most of his transition by captaining the second unit and specializing in playmaking.

It began on Opening Night time when Tatum unloaded 4-of-6 three-point capturing over the Knicks, on his approach to 37 factors on 14-of-18 area objective makes an attempt. And since — save for a number of exceptions — Boston opened with Tatum to nice impact.

Joe Mazzulla nonetheless believed in rolling with whomever between Brown and Tatum have it going early, giving Brown alternatives to return to his former function. Generally, they each play whole first quarters, like final month’s get proper blowout win over the Pacers. That’s led to blended workloads game-to-game for Tatum, who ranks sixth in utilization proportion (30.8%) beneath MVP rivals Giannis Antetokounmpo (36%), Nikola Jokic (31.5%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (33.5%).

There’s a high-quality line between taking full benefit of Tatum’s creation capability in a heliocentric function and using the proficient roster round him. However Boston has been extra profitable when it has used Tatum extra, bettering to 10-3 in Denver when he exceeds 30% utilization. Conversely, the Celtics fell to 6-5 at Oklahoma Metropolis when he falls beneath that threshold, in keeping with StatMuse. A few of that’s self-fulfilling, with stats based mostly on scoring like free throws, area targets and assists rising a participant’s charge. After all, extra of these result in wins and fewer lead to losses.

“Have you learnt what utilization charge is? Have you learnt learn how to calculate it?,” Mazzulla requested earlier than the Nuggets sport. “(It’s) divided by possessions. So you possibly can nonetheless be concerned in the event you make a possible help … so I believe on the finish of the day, crucial factor is ensuring that every one of our guys are in place to make performs for one another and there’s clearly loads of time the place Tatum needs to be Tatum and he needs to be aggressive — there’s no query about that. I believe he’s top-of-the-line gamers within the league at discovering that stability of when it’s time to take over and when it’s time to present the sport what it wants.”

That’s the system that labored in 2024, and whereas the roster composition and roles stay just like final yr, it’s not the identical season. Shooters round Tatum have suffered worse outcomes this yr, and Tatum is experiencing a brand new profession excessive in scoring effectivity (55.7 eFG%) and passing prowess (24.7 AST%). The on/off numbers aren’t as stark as in previous years (seventy fifth percentile) and replicate a extra competent offense (+2.8 factors per 100 possessions higher) with Tatum on the ground in comparison with off. Brown continued serving to Boston preserve its dominance (+10.9 internet score, Brown on, Tatum off) with the second unit, although Tatum takes them to new heights in his restricted minutes (+13 internet score).

These are all slim methods of trying on the larger crew dynamic, together with the impression of gamers going out and in of the lineup. The Celtics suffered in Oklahoma Metropolis, the place solely Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet scored within the second half, from Tatum not taking up the offense. Then, he launched 23 photographs at Denver to energy a robust begin and late 15-0 run that left him +23 with 29 factors regardless of struggling 1-of-9 from three.

“It’s nearly studying the sport,” Tatum mentioned that morning. “It’s not constructed for me to simply dominate the ball or the sport night-in and night-out. We simply bought too many proficient gamers and that’s not the way in which we play. It’s positively sure occasions and intervals the place you need to assault, be extra aggressive and search for your self, however I simply felt like loads of occasions I made the best move (towards the Thunder) and we simply didn’t hit photographs at a traditional of a charge as we do. It’s only a make or miss league on some nights.”

This isn’t to say that Tatum ought to revert to the one-on-one tendencies that tortured Celtics followers in 2021 and led to him breaking a playoff turnover document in 2022. It’s a matter of whether or not Tatum’s scoring development since then would permit for a extra environment friendly Boston offense by using him extra typically. He leads the NBA amongst gamers with no less than 3.0 possessions per sport with 1.20 factors per possession in isolation. Recognizing up, he ranks within the 61st percentile and is within the 81st percentile of pick-and-roll creators. He produces as many factors per possession posting up as Domantas Sabonis. Tatum’s a 93rd percentile cutter and even carves out 1.12 PPP as a curler.

As Mazzulla talked about, Tatum can create offense exterior of these conditions dictated by a possession ending in a shot, turnover or free throws instantly from his involvement. That results in the talk from June’s Finals over whether or not Tatum performed nicely regardless of his scoring numbers plummeting. He drew crowds and moved the ball out of them, typically his function in Boston’s offense that typically makes use of Tatum as a decoy to free the crew’s different gamers.

“We’re clearly at our greatest when he’s tremendous aggressive and we’re at our greatest when our guys are aggressive, so proceed to work that stability and it’s a credit score to him understanding that stability,” Mazzulla mentioned. “I do know that may be tough for him, however on the similar time, (utilization is) in all probability a ineffective stat as a result of it doesn’t rely into his impression. He had 15 potential assists final sport. If these photographs go in, he has a special stat line from that standpoint. So, I believe he’s doing a terrific job, no matter what protection that he’s in, of constructing the best play, whether or not it’s for himself or for different individuals. When he’s aggressive, that’s after we’re at our greatest.”

This dialog at all times returns to Brown, who’s down from 55.7% to 51.7% capturing two-pointers, 35.4% to 32.5% on threes and turning the ball over at a barely increased proportion over final yr whereas taking extra photographs every evening. His aggression, tempo and skill to show protection into offense stay essential to the crew. Like in previous years although, he and Tatum’s offensive runs can commerce off in waves. When one emerges early, like Brown did on the Thunder, it will probably go away the opposite out of the sport or looking out the place to slot in.

Brown has expressed the shift away from logging all the first as an adjustment, one he’s made the very best of by rising his help charge by practically three factors. The system for this group works when photographs fall. After they don’t, there’s a case, by utilization charge (32% on Tuesday) or eye check, that Tatum can carry this crew when the offense dries up extra typically.

“Yeah, I imply he nonetheless handed. I believe he had 10-12 potential assists, however once more, it’s that stability,” Mazzulla mentioned after the sport. “We wish him to be nice each evening. We’re by no means gonna ask him or anybody of our guys to be much less of themselves. It’s simply having an understanding of giving the sport what it wants at that specific time and put us in place to win, no matter which may be. So, he did a terrific job of that tonight all through the sport, defensively as nicely. I believe he gave up two threes to Porter to start out the sport and after that he was very, very intentional defensively and simply as a lot on the offensive finish.”