12:02
: Good morning from windy Tempe the place I’m engaged on the Giants prospect checklist and doubling again on my worldwide bonus information to have as correct an image as I can for subsequent week’s signing interval kickoff…
12:04
: How the Giants checklist and the Int’l checklist sequence early subsequent week may depend upon whether or not we study of Sasaki’s vacation spot over the weekend, and the way a lot chaos that creates.
12:04
: Okay, let’s chat, friendos.
12:04
: Appears some in Astros are optimistic about Dezenzo in left discipline. Is his bat sufficient to hold him at that place?
12:05
: I believe he’s, ideally, enjoying a multi-positional position on an excellent HOU workforce. Minute Maid’s LF clearly permits for an absence of vary, wouldn’t shock me if he’s satisfactory on the market.
12:05
: Hey Eric – when can we anticipate your J15 checklist and are there any prospects of notice tied to the Pink Sox?
12:06
: Monday or Tuesday relying on the knock-on results of a weekend Roki determination. Some groups won’t even signal their guys on the fifteenth as we look forward to Roki to resolve. You’ll in all probability have the ability to see what groups really feel like they’re in it primarily based on who doesn’t signal their large time gamers.
12:06
: BoSox guys:
12:07
: Dorian Soto is a well-rounded little Dominican infielder, extra current ability than large time instruments, not a ton of projection. About $1 mil
12:09
: Harold Rivas, Venezuelan CF, extra toolsy CF sort, younger for the category with mid-2008 birthday, can run and throw however hit instrument is producing variable opinions, once more a couple of mil
12:10
: How do Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez and Elian Pena examine in each a participant sense and a high 100 sense? Are both of them going to make the backend? Which man do you see being ranked increased a yr from now.
12:11
: For these unfamiliar: Josuar is predicted to signal with San Francisco for a little bit north of $2 mil, Pena is predicted to be a Met for near $5 mil…
12:12
: I like each guys, fast experiences on every:
12:12
: Pena sounds extra like 3B however large time hit and energy combo, sufficient to hold the profile anyway. Received a Devers comp on the cellphone this morning…
12:14
: Josuar is extra protection and contact-oriented, an actual shortstop with plus velocity. So that they’re fairly totally different guys. High 100? I’ve tended to solely put recent Int’l guys on there if they’ve all the pieces SS/Contact/Physique Proj, Josuar is nearer to that template however Elian has the extra apparent impression energy…it’s powerful, might argue for both
12:16
: I need you to know that I admire the specificity of this query, nevertheless it’s one that can greatest be answered on the Orioles checklist slightly than make everybody wait a half hour whereas I sit and truly line these dudes up in a coherent, studied approach.
12:16
: You’re not the primary to ask me about Weston although, so right here goes:
12:18
: Low slot multi-pitch man with big lateral motion on a 91 mph fastball. Heavy secondary pitch utilization when forward within the rely, particularly his curveball. Changeup and curveball each play, fear the shortage of velo would make him susceptible as an precise starter, swingman/lengthy aid sort for me.
12:18
: That’s a little bit too wealthy for me however I’m Scrooge in relation to projecting pitcher roles. He’s extra a no. 3/4 ceiling to me.
12:18
: Cubs appear to be relying on Matt Shaw being a Day-1 starter at 3B. Is that this dangerous, given he has restricted AAA expertise? Or is he THAT good?
12:19
: I believe his match at 3B felt very sound by the tip of the yr, went from a man with out an apparent defensive house to a meaningfully good 3B defender within the span of a pair months. I’m in and assume he’s prepared.
12:22
: Tong is an information darling due to his fastball motion. 20 inches of vert is rather a lot, guys have succeeded as starters with fastball-heavy assaults (Joe Ryan). I don’t purchase that Tong’s 76 mph curveball might be a plus pitch in opposition to large leaguers the best way it has thus far, however his changeup has gotten ok for that to be okay if true.
12:24
: Tidwell is extra typical backend man with that inning-eater body and stuff that performs down a little bit bit because of lack of explosive motion.
12:25
: McLean, believable there’s a giant pop as he focuses on pitching, mid-90s with lifeless motion, extra aid look to me however is throwing arduous as a starter
12:26
: I like Winokur extra as a result of I believe he has a shot to play an precise place however I’ll take the latter on each guys.
12:26
: The place would you wish to see Luciano enjoying this yr? LF, 2B?
12:27
: Hopefully with extra effort than we noticed throughout instructs.
12:27
Venezuela has skilled alot of social unrest recently….how has this impacted the expertise pipeline from Venezuela? I think about it has to have impacted how groups scout gamers there
12:28
: Venezuelan gamers are sometimes scouted in Colombia, and the final couple of weeks a number of groups obtained their upcoming signees out of there early simply in case there was unrest round their inauguration and so on.
12:28
: Is Clayton Beeter’s future strictly as a reliever? In that case, might he be a excessive leverage sort as early as this season?
12:28
: Sure to the primary half, in all probability to not the second half.
12:29
: In your thoughts, does Spencer Horwitz generate sufficient energy to be a satisfactory choice at 1B for the Pirates for a number of years?
12:30
: I believe he’s okay, satisfactory is how I’d put it, a forty five sort participant.
12:30
: Did you study or see something about Z. Hope within the AFL, that induced you to considerably re-assess your analysis of him?
12:32
: I’ll clearly take one other cross at him after I do the Dodgers checklist, however I felt fairly good about my 45+ grade popping out of AFL. Energy over hit, gonna Ok rather a lot, really feel in CF must get higher, velocity to develop there may be current in the mean time however he’s bodily maxed out and I don’t know for the way lengthy that’ll be true. Strong platoon OF if he’s in a nook, flawed on a regular basis CF if he can get higher on the market
12:33
: Are there any workforce’s 2024 draft lessons you had been actually down on? Whether or not it was their picks, the workforce match of these picks or the best way they unfold round their cash. Any you had been stunned/impressed by?
12:36
: As a result of it wasn’t an superior class it’s harder to slim down whose I didn’t like as a result of numerous them really feel underwhelming. I preferred Seattle’s, Detroit’s. Didn’t care a lot for Philly’s…blended on numerous groups
12:37
: Is the Giants checklist going to have JDJG on it?
12:37
: Yeah, and each org checklist that has already gone might be up to date to incorporate their int’l signees.
12:37
: Is Yu-Min Lin nonetheless probably a ‘dude’ or has that ship sailed and he’ll must accept simply being a situational LOOGY?
12:38
: I believe he’s okay. Command isn’t ok to make him a “dude” with this stage of velo. Backend sort.
12:38
: Type of a submit prospect query however is Austin Shenton simply an AAAA participant or does he have an opportunity to get ABs this yr after being moved.
12:39
: I’ve had a bench bat grade on him for some time. Playable energy metrics had been nutty for a number of years however can’t play 3B for me, hit instrument too dicey to play constant position.
12:40
: I don’t need to butcher this however I bear in mind earlier this previous yr seeing a screenshot of you saying Sebastian Walcott’s excessive finish comp is Javier Baez. Realizing what he did within the second half, has this modified?
12:41
: Wait a second, I’m confused by this. Are individuals saying Baez could be a disappointing consequence for Walcott?
12:42
: The 30 HR shortstop Javier Baez, are we speaking about the identical man? Are peoples’ reminiscences that brief?
12:42
: Do now we have knowledge someplace that tells us what probability sure FV worth prospects have of hitting sure WAR threshold? For instance, a 60 FV pitcher has a x% probability of manufacturing no less than 10 profession WAR. That might be a fairly cool spreadsheet to make public if such a factor exists.
12:43
: What Condon have to indicate in 2025 to maneuver up a number of grades? Is it solely hit instrument + contact charges that’s holding him again?
12:43
: And his protection
12:43
: He appeared terrible
12:43
: You had been fairly excessive on Rayner Arias at one level. His stateside debut was lackluster, however he was snakebit by harm once more. Do you assume he can present star stage upside in 2025, or do you assume that upside is definitely decrease now after a number of wrist accidents?
12:44
: I’m terrified of all of the wrist stuff and thought his swing appeared totally different and weirder final yr. Nonetheless such a bodily man, however yeah appeared altered by these points.
12:44
: The place is the Reds worldwide cash going? They aren’t linked to any high prodpects.
12:45
: Angel Guzman, north of $3 mil, 7 run, 6 arm, CF. Am I the one one who has that?
12:45
: Hey Eric, thanks for all of your work. I’ve a basic query about Moises Ballesteros. Is that this the case of, if he can hold on as a backup catcher (perhaps 30% catching and probably DH/1B the remainder of the time to build up ~500PA), whereas not being a terrific actual life participant, he turns into a considerable fantasy asset due to the standard of the bat on the catcher place? I do know you’ve pale on him a bit since final yr, however curious in your take for the divergence between actual life/fantasy worth with him.
12:46
: I might see a state of affairs the place he has extra fantasy worth than actual life as a result of he’ll be eligible at C whereas getting reps at 1B/DH such that he’ll out-plate look a bunch of main catchers, yeah. Sorta like Soderstrom late final yr.
12:47
: Do you’ve got a rule of thumb when a man begins to get his “man power?” Ie, earlier than that point, you’ll be able to see an influence uptick nonetheless being doable, and after that point it’s tougher to see it occurring? I’m simply gonna throw 23 on the market as a guess
12:48
: I’m with you, perhaps it’d change for a person participant right here or there primarily based on a new-to-baseball athletic background or one thing like that, and also you wanna give the small faculty faculty guys time to get sturdy on a professional weight program, however 23 give or take feels proper
12:49
: Because you’ve touched on Josuar and Elian, does Cris Rodriguez belong of their worldwide sphere?
12:49
: Signing with Detroit for round 3mil. I’ve extra blended hit instrument evals there.
12:49
: Bryce Eldridge– would you take into account that he has an extended swing? I’ve seen video and it seems to be slightly brief contemplating his measurement?
12:50
: Agree with you
12:50
: No actual query. Simply wished to say that your talks are my favourite a part of FPAZ. Your information and talent to rapidly begin speaking about any participant talked about is fairly rattling wonderful. Thanks.
12:50
: gracias, it’s a litmus take a look at for myself yearly
12:50
: What would your PowerPoint pitch to Roki Sasaki appear to be?
12:52
: A part of me need sot reply this significantly and a part of me needs to put in writing the SNL sketch model of it
12:53
: I suppose a giant a part of what I’d emphasize could be town my workforce is in. How are you going to entry nature and quiet on this place? I’d need the sound design of my presentation to be an even bigger a part of my spiel and create a tone that approach.
12:53
: What clicked for him final yr? Was it an actual change and do you anticipate additional development?
12:54
: truthfully, simply holding his velo throughout extra innings was a giant deal. To know he can do this closes the hole between projection and actualization.
12:54
: I’ve learn some lists that say Andrew Salas bonus is increased than it ought to be. What’s your ideas on him?
12:55
: I’ve 3.7 there. Everybody loves him, perhaps extra stability than upside in a approach, however no person I’ve spoken with thinks he’s a foul prospect.
12:55
: Individuals noticed him take BP like two days in the past and he appeared nice.
12:55
: Am I the most effective defender in minor league baseball?
12:56
: I perhaps have to make a supercut of this man enjoying protection. Marlins checklist time it’ll occur.
12:56
: Is there something you’ve observed which could clarify why the Twins high positional prospects have increased harm dangers year-in year-out?
12:56
: They’ve, anecdotally, been extra prepared to tackle gamers with harm stuff, from Carlos Correa to Brooks Lee.
12:59
: Dishmey is a hard-throwing lotto ticket sort with out numerous strikes. Benitez I like, perhaps an excessive amount of, smaller low-90s sinker man however an unbelievable athlete with a possible 7 changeup.
12:59
: Benitez is already a Boras consumer, I imagine.
1:00
: As a part of your worldwide protection, do it’s important to keep abreast of international nationwide information (comparable to your callout about Venezuela)? And in that case, do you set time apart to learn / watch native information sources or do you principally simply take up the data as a aspect impact of international novice prospect protection?
1:02
: I’m not a *complete* ignoramus in relation to these things, however I positively glean lots of the particular particulars of the best way these things impacts particular person peoples’ lives (like scouts getting mugged or tried kidnappings, and so on.) by way of baseball dialogue, from individuals who reside or journey to those locations typically.
1:02
: I in all probability spend an excessive amount of time watching sports activities than an individual who can say they’ve a well-balanced media food plan.
1:02
: Had been you stunned to see Cowser’s energy improvement this previous season? Was his marketing campaign a shock?
1:03
: I used to be, got here to camp a unique beast, far more bodily. If he can stick with it I’ll have gone out on one thing of a limb and been improper. 30% Ok is kinda scary although…
1:03
: Ernesto Martinez Jr went zonkers (195 wRC+ over 201 PAs) to shut out the yr at Biloxi. Small pattern noise or perhaps beginning to put all these instruments collectively?
1:04
: Dude, I actually surprise. He’s so freaky and the contact/chase elements of his recreation had been nearer to common in ’24 slightly than approach, approach beneath….
1:05
: However he was 25 and at AA
1:05
: Can somebody have a 50 hit instrument with a 55 eye and 55 bat management?
1:05
: Yeah if they’ve so little energy that the ball doesn’t go away the infield
1:06
: Ought to baseball fields be extra idiosyncratic?
1:06
: Just like the MVP 05 mini video games?
1:06
: With tractors and ramps and sh*t?
1:07
: I’m professional pie slice, that’s in all probability my hottest take.
1:07
: Nonetheless plenty of good questions within the queue so I’m gonna go a little bit longer, perhaps 10 to fifteen or so
1:08
: Is Sasaki your clear #1 decide for FYPDs? Or another person could be your #1?
1:09
: upside/proximity combo is nuts, simple no. 1
1:09
: It appears to me that the hit price on 16 yr previous worldwide signees has actually dropped within the final 5 years. I consider guys like Erik Pena, Robert Puason, Cespedes who haven’t progressed regardless of signing fats contracts. Does the information assist this sense? Some workforce appears to be spending each bit as excessive as earlier years (e.g. Yankees).
1:10
: I believe hype previous to signing has made extra guys web well-known than was the case prior to now when solely Michael Ynoa was well-known. The explanations for the hype are legion (tech, social media, perverse incentives in media, and so on.) however we simply know extra about extra guys now than ever earlier than. And the offers have been agreed to earlier and earlier, which provides to the variance of the outcomes.
1:11
: Any prospects on the workforce checklist you’re presently engaged on that you just’re considerably increased or decrease on than consensus?
1:13
: I haven’t checked out anybody else’s Giants checklist. I like Anthony Marquez.
1:13
: What’s the subsequent pod of workforce lists on deck?
1:14
: Groups who prepare on the Gulf Coasts aspect of Florida
1:14
: What do you assume 2025 seems to be like for Caissie and Alcantara? The Cubs have positively made ‘let’s win now’ strikes. The previous, actually, looks like commerce bait.
1:14
: I really feel like KA is perhaps extra within the commerce crosshairs as a result of he’s operating out of choice years, however I’m typically with you.
1:16
: Are you able to please inform me why OF Jacob Melton is so nicely regarded? I simply don’t see it primarily based on his minor league profession.
1:17
: I’m in. Roughly common contact with plus energy on a lefty-hitting OF. Swing frightened me in faculty however he’s hit and hit. Chase is a little bit worse than common, I do know his floor stats at Sugar Land had been meh, however I believe he’s a strong on a regular basis OF.
1:17
: How are you doing Eric? I and lots of others admire the work and perception you convey to prospect writing. A non-prospect query for you: What has been efficient for you in your course of to get from a set of ideas/notes to having precise coherent and substantive written phrases.
1:19
: Give it some thought like cooking slightly than baking. Throw your components right into a google doc, add a little bit right here, transfer this over there. Don’t be frozen within the mess of the preliminary define/notes half. I battle with this, I’m nautrally a baker, I’ll take perpetually agonizing over the wording of a paragraph and it’ll have to be excellent earlier than I transfer on to the subsequent. It takes perpetually doing it that approach and I’ve tried to work with a cook dinner’s mindset at any time when I really feel that caught within the mud sensation.
1:22
: Okay everybody, it’s again to Giants and Int’l work for me. Thanks for coming this week, there’s an opportunity I transfer or bang subsequent week’s chat to scout MLK weekend exercise right here in Phoenix, only a heads up. Have a terrific weekend.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and presently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Information Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work can be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
