The 2025 Components 1 season may very well be among the finest in a technology. Virtually half the sphere of 20 drivers heading into the season opener in Australia can dream of title glory.
That is primarily based on the outcomes of the 2024 championship — an unexpectedly shut season the place Crimson Bull initially dominated, earlier than McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes completed robust.
These 4 groups and 7 of their eight drivers shared all of the victories from the 24 races final 12 months. These have been the very best totals for race-winning groups and drivers because the 2012 and 2021 seasons.
However because the 2025 marketing campaign will get underway, the brand new season may even be higher than the final.
“This season needs to be epic and even nearer,” Zak Brown, the McLaren staff’s chief government, mentioned on the F1 75 Stay occasion in London final month.
“Each race final 12 months, whereas the highest 4 groups have been all the time on the entrance, there all the time gave the impression to be somebody that was in a position to disrupt,” Brown mentioned. “So, I anticipate that to be occurring once more. I wouldn’t be stunned if there have been greater than 4 groups that received this time.”
But it surely’s not simply on the entrance of the sphere the place the 2025 season is anticipated to be tight. The six groups with slower automobiles have been additionally evenly cut up final 12 months. In the long run, all of them scored factors, and Stake F1 Workforce Kick Sauber made its automobile quicker on the finish of the 12 months, the place it completed final within the constructors’ standings.
In qualifying for the 2024 season finale in Abu Dhabi in December, the time hole between the quickest of the 20 automobiles (Lando Norris of McLaren) and the slowest (Jack Doohan of Alpine) was simply 0.803 seconds. On the season opener in Bahrain in March, the qualifying hole between quickest and slowest automobiles was 1.039 seconds.
The shortage of rule adjustments on automobile designs that groups should work round this 12 months is one issue that might lead to even nearer racing. This reduces the probability that any staff will discover a breakthrough half to make their automobiles significantly quicker.
“Yearly rules don’t change, it will get nearer and nearer — that’s simply the way in which it’s all the time labored,” Norris mentioned final month. “It already received fairly shut on the finish of final 12 months, and also you already began to see the center pack, which is a lot of the grid aside from the highest 4 groups, catching up and getting nearer.
“I solely anticipate that to be much more the case on this season.”
However not everybody, nonetheless, is getting carried away. Max Verstappen of Crimson Bull, who beat Norris for the 2024 drivers’ title, mentioned, “It’s good for the game if it’s thrilling,” however emphasised how the groups are likely to masks the true efficiency of their automobiles forward of the primary race annually.
“It could be good, nevertheless it’s unimaginable to reply proper now,” he mentioned. “You’ll be able to speculate about it, nevertheless it’s only a waste of vitality to consider that but.”
Pierre Gasly of Alpine agreed with Verstappen.
“Deep inside me, I hope the sphere is extraordinarily tight,” Gasly mentioned. “However I don’t need to be disillusioned if we come to Australia and out of the blue we’ve got rival groups flying.”
However he predicted, due to the mix of how 2024 ended and the automobile design stability, that “on paper, will probably be a kind of seasons” the place margins can be very small among the many groups.
If this does show true, there may be the potential that Components 1 will get a yearlong title battle between a number of groups for the primary time since 2021.
Though Ferrari battled Crimson Bull at the beginning of 2022 and McLaren and different groups pressured Crimson Bull late final 12 months, 2021 was the final time two groups have been evenly matched from begin to end.
That 12 months, it was Crimson Bull versus Mercedes, led by Lewis Hamilton. However, if 4 groups or extra do interact for the 2025 title, will probably be probably the most aggressive championship battle since 2010, when Crimson Bull, Ferrari and McLaren have been the contenders. 4 drivers from these three groups had the potential to win heading into the ultimate race. Crimson Bull and its star driver then, Sebastian Vettel, finally triumphed.
Norris mentioned, “You’re most likely going to have this season with winners that aren’t top-four groups, that aren’t McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes or Crimson Bull.”
“Which is sweet for Components 1,” he added.
However George Russell of Mercedes insisted that “if you have a look at how dominant McLaren have been within the second half of final 12 months, doubtless they’re the favorites going into this 12 months.”
That’s as a result of McLaren received 5 of the ultimate 12 races in 2024, probably the most of any staff, and beat Ferrari and Crimson Bull for the constructors’ championship.
All of the groups should additionally address the extra problem of planning their 2026 automobiles to new, and really completely different, design guidelines which are coming. On the similar time, they need to be certain that their 2025 automobiles nonetheless get quicker.
All of them have a finite quantity of sources to realize this stability inside Components 1’s monetary guidelines, generally known as the price cap.
“I feel why it’s going to be so attention-grabbing is whoever continues to develop will most likely win the championship, however you’ll pay the value in 2026,” Russell mentioned.
“So, groups who come out of the blocks and see it’s a detailed battle, they could proceed to develop. However we additionally noticed it in 2021. Mercedes stopped growing and fine-tuned the automobile and located large efficiency within the second half of the 12 months.
“Naturally, all the time in that last 12 months of rules,” he continued, “it turns into shut, however I nonetheless anticipate McLaren to be proper on the forefront.”
