You is perhaps a bit shocked to be taught simply how uncommon 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances within the 2024 season, and simply 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That implies that every staff ought to anticipate to see a 3-0 depend simply 1.4 instances per recreation. That’s a complete lot fewer than I anticipated. Due to that shortage, if any individual involves you with statistics a few batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you possibly can most likely low cost them as a small pattern dimension aberration. That’s all of the extra true when you think about that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts flip into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns implies that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). As soon as the batter will get forward 3-0, there are only a few precise at-bats going down. So that you don’t should take this severely for those who don’t wish to, however as soon as he reaches a 3-0 depend, Aaron Decide is placing collectively the best season in recorded historical past. I do know that’s not precisely a surprising lede – Aaron Decide is sweet at one thing; movie at eleven – but it surely’s enjoyable, so hear me out.
On this case, recorded historical past begins in 1988. That’s the earliest yr that Stathead helps you to pull count-based splits. These splits are barely muddied by the truth that so far as Stathead is anxious, 3-0 counts embody intentional walks. (That’s comprehensible, since till very just lately, intentional walks nonetheless required pitchers to throw 4 precise balls. Nonetheless, it undoubtedly skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to incorporate PAs the place the batter by no means noticed a aggressive pitch in depend splits.) This season, Decide has been walked deliberately 18 instances, however 4 of these passes solely occurred as soon as the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll depart them and strip out the opposite 14.
That leaves Decide with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 depend, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which additionally offers the Yankees way more 3-0 counts than every other staff in baseball). In these PAs, Decide has walked 35 instances, for a stroll price of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Decide is: Despite the fact that he ranks second on this cut up by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for seventy fifth in ABs.
So how did these eight at-bats go? Nicely, they went popup, single, homer, homer, homer, strikeout, groundout, homer. In the event you’re preserving rating at dwelling, that may be 5-for-8 with 4 homers, good for a 2.125 slugging proportion. I went again into Stathead and tried to search out the gamers with the perfect 3-0 splits in historical past. (For these splits, I wasn’t in a position to separate out intentional walks, however since we’re speaking about a number of the finest hitting performances of the final 4 a long time, they’re most likely not skewing the on-base percentages that a lot anyway.) Since 1988, Decide is the one participant to get forward 3-0 at the least 30 instances and to run a slugging proportion above 2.000 in these plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez got here closest; in 2019, the Houston slugger acquired forward 3-0 in 23 PAs, walked in 20 of them, and homered in all three of the opposite others. That’s patently absurd, and it makes for a tidy 4.000 slugging proportion.
This season, as soon as he reaches 3-0, Decide has a slash line of .625/.930/2.125, with an OPS of three.055 (3.072 if we depend his intentional walks). Amongst gamers with at the least 35 PAs in a 3-0 depend, that’s the perfect OPS in recorded historical past. Subsequent on the checklist is 2004 Barry Bonds. As you may recall, 2004 Barry Bonds was fairly good. He ran a 233 wRC+ and hit 45 dwelling runs in simply 373 at-bats, as a result of he acquired walked practically 38% of the time. That season, Bonds ran a 2.760 OPS after he acquired forward within the depend 3-0, practically 300 factors beneath Decide.
Right here’s the craziest a part of the story. Decide has had eight at-bats with a 3-0 depend this season. Since 1988, for those who set a minimal of eight at-bats with a 3-0 depend, he’s second all-time in each slugging and OPS. Who’s in first, and what yr did they accomplish this feat? That will be Kyle Tucker, this season. The Houston proper fielder, who has been out since June 5 with a mysterious shin contusion that was just lately upgraded to a much-less-mysterious full-on fracture, has gotten forward 3-0 in 20 plate appearances this yr. He’s walked 11 instances and gone 6-for-9 with 5 homers and a double. That’s good for a 2.444 slugging proportion.
As soon as once more, the numbers we’re speaking about listed here are minuscule. Within the case of Decide, we’re speaking about simply eight at-bats. He may fly out twice with a 3-0 depend tonight, and unexpectedly he’d be a pathetic 5-for-10 with 4 dwelling runs and each phrase that I’ve written could be fully irrelevant. (Be aware to Aaron Decide: Please don’t do that, I urge of you.) However these tiny numbers additionally communicate to form of numbers Aaron Decide is placing up, once more. He’s been so unreal that it’s onerous to discover a cut up the place he isn’t on the high of the league. The numbers are tiny, but it surely’s not an accident that he’s discovered himself in so many 3-0 counts or that he’s walked greater than 4 instances out of 5 as soon as he acquired there. He’s working a 96th-percentile chase price and a A hundredth-percentile hard-hit price. No marvel we will’t cease mentioning Barry Bonds. Seasons just like the one Decide is having don’t come alongside all that always, so let’s be sure we get pleasure from ourselves, whatever the pattern dimension.
Many because of FanGraph member Brian Reinhart for suggesting this matter and Stathead’s Katie Sharp for serving to me decouple intentional walks from this information the place attainable.
