Few can elude Father Time, particularly in fantasy soccer. Yearly, with out fail, there are stars who see an enormous drop in manufacturing after years of sustained dominance. Julio Jones averaged 18.5 fantasy factors per recreation throughout his first decade within the league. Julio has performed three extra seasons since then (ages 31-34) averaging 8.0, 7.0 and three.3 factors per recreation. It is not a knock on Julio — or another participant who sees a considerable drop in productiveness resulting from age; that is simply a part of the sport. Our objective is to pinpoint which superstars on the fallacious facet of 30 are prone to proceed to supply high quality fantasy stats over the 2024 season, whereas hopefully avoiding these on the precipice of a fantasy drop-off.
All ages as of Week 1
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (Age: 31)
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Quarterbacks age in a different way than the athletes at different positions, so Dak being 31 does not hassle me right here. Dak has averaged over 20 fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 campaigns, and the reference to CeeDee Lamb is as sturdy because it has ever been. The working recreation in Dallas is not what it was once, with Tony Pollard out of city and Ezekiel Elliott (turns 29 in July) returning to guide the backfield. This needs to be a pass-heavy offense as soon as once more with loads of alternatives for Prescott to thrive.
Draft recommendation: He is a strong QB1 so as to add within the later rounds.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (30)
Henry’s Tennessee résumé speaks for itself. He has been the focus of their offense since taking the starter’s reins from DeMarco Murray in 2018. From 2019 by way of 2022, Henry completed prime 4 in fantasy factors per recreation (in 2021 he missed eight video games with a damaged foot) each season. Final 12 months, Henry got here all the way down to earth because the Titans’ offense struggled, ending twenty eighth in whole yards per recreation and twenty sixth in factors per recreation. Now in Baltimore, Henry joins an offense that ranked first in speeding yards per recreation, second in factors per recreation and sixth in whole yards per recreation. If he may rating 12 touchdowns in that abysmal 2023 Titans offense, signal me up for what he can do because the lead again with the Ravens, no matter his age.
Draft recommendation: Draft Henry as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 in Rounds 2-3.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (103, however he is actually 32)
I used to be shocked at what Mostert did in 2023. It is the one time in his profession that he is ever clocked 200 carries, over 1,000 yards speeding or double-digit touchdowns. With De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright as the way forward for the backfield, do not anticipate something near what Mostert did final season.
Draft recommendation: Why draft Mostert when you possibly can draft Zack Moss as a substitute?
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (30)
It needs to be unlawful to be 30 years previous and run as quick as Hill does, however since it is not, he’ll hold exploiting defenses. Hill is the one 30-year-old who’s a surefire guess to return off the board within the first spherical of your fantasy draft after he averaged higher than 23 fantasy factors per recreation final season, which is an absurd quantity for a large receiver. He completed with 119 catches for 1,799 yards and 12 touchdowns, so even when he does not fairly repeat the efficiency, Tyreek ought to defy his age-30 season and proceed to be a top-five expertise on the place.
Draft recommendation: Take him within the first spherical as your WR1. Congrats.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31)
Evans is the mannequin of consistency. Since getting into the league in 2014, he has completed each single season with a minimum of 67 receptions and 1,001 yards receiving. That is an absurdly excessive flooring to keep up for 10 straight seasons. Talking of flooring, Evans has completed prime 10 at his place 4 occasions in his profession however has by no means completed outdoors the highest 25 huge receivers. In 2023, he discovered the top zone on 13 events, his third time in 4 seasons seeing double-digit landing manufacturing. Given his measurement (6-foot-5, 231 kilos — you possibly can’t train that) and the way in which this offense nonetheless runs by way of Huge Mike Evans, it is best to really feel secure grabbing him as a beginning receiver.
Draft recommendation: Evans will probably be a strong WR2 that you would be able to draft in Rounds 3-4.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (34)
Kelce has been the king of the tight finish place for the higher a part of a decade, however all good issues should come to an finish. Kelce noticed his manufacturing slip by nearly 100 fantasy factors from 2022 to 2023. His dominance at a comparatively shallow place has been an enormous a part of Kelce’s attraction: Everybody knew who the very best tight finish was in our recreation, and it wasn’t actually shut — no offense meant to Mark Andrews or George Kittle. However fast-forward to 2024 and the place is as deep because it’s ever been. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid have arrived to usher in a brand new wave of fantasy tight ends, to not point out that Evan Engram simply set the place’s report for essentially the most receptions in a season (116). The concept Kelce may fall from the highest of the place to center of the pack is an actual risk in 2024. Kelce can nonetheless be counted on as a TE1, however his days of being a one-man tier atop the place are over.
Draft recommendation: Given his present ADP, I am passing on Kelce in favor of one of many youthful tight ends on the board, but when he falls into the fourth or fifth rounds, I would contemplate leaping on the veteran worth.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (31)
The fantasy time period “set it and overlook it” might need originated with Adams (in all probability not true), so here is an outrageous stat that highlights Adams’ stardom: Since taking on as the highest receiver in Inexperienced Bay (2016), Adams has completed no decrease than WR18 and has turned in six top-10 campaigns in eight seasons. However regardless of all of the positivity I simply poured on Adams, I am simply not as excessive on him this 12 months.
Adams places you in a tough spot of getting to decide on an growing older, declining famous person with an identical common draft place to an up-and-coming star like Marvin Harrison Jr. — and one going a full spherical sooner than a few of my favourite upside receivers reminiscent of Drake London or Nico Collins. Is there another 12 months left within the tank earlier than we see a Julio-like fall from Davante? After all that is a risk — he is Davante Adams! But when there’s, it will be with Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew below heart, which is lower than inspiring and means I am normally passing on him until I can get him as a terrific worth within the fourth or later.
Draft recommendation: I would quite draft London or Chris Olave than Adams in 2024.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (30)
SeasonPPG201816.2201915.9202015.6202114.1202213.4202312.7
The 49er impact is actual. Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Kittle make for lots of mouths to feed, and we regularly see that mirrored within the increase/bust nature of 49ers recreation logs. Now the staff has added first-round choose Ricky Pearsall to its cabinet of pass-catchers and there most assuredly will not be sufficient targets for everybody to have sustained quantity. It is nearly odd, however Kittle has seen his fantasy factors per recreation lower each single 12 months since 2018. Sadly, I would not be shocked to see the pattern proceed in 2024.
Draft recommendation: His peak weeks are big, however his valley weeks are equally as low. I would quite have extra consistency from my TE1, however he is nonetheless a superb worth if being drafted as TE7-TE10.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans (30)
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From Weeks 1 by way of 9, Diggs was WR3 in fantasy, averaging 21.7 PPG. From Weeks 10-18, Diggs was WR44 averaging 9.8 PPG. How a lot of that was Diggs and the way a lot of that was the state of affairs? We could by no means know the total story of his second-half collapse, however we do know he’ll be catching passes from C.J. Stroud now. The issue for Diggs is not the slight downgrade from Josh Allen to Stroud, it is his new teammates Nico Collins and Tank Dell, whose profession arrows are decidedly pointing “up.” When you’ve listened to Stroud discuss his younger receivers this offseason, you will know that he loves his younger duo. I do not dislike Diggs, nor do I believe he is fallen off a cliff from a expertise degree, however in a brand new state of affairs, with all of the expertise round him competing for targets, his ADP is just too wealthy.
Draft recommendation: Diggs is a mid to low-end WR2 with an elevated potential for increase/bust weeks. To be trustworthy, I largely move on him in our mock drafts as a result of he by no means falls far sufficient to entice me.
