Giro-Tour double: Pog vs other recent attempts

First Tour relaxation day and we have to take inventory. There have been a ton of unknowns among the many pre-race GC favorites, together with the restoration statuses of Vingegaard, Roglic, and Evenepoel, plus a significant warmth examine on the latest Giro winner Pogacar. The latter is what I’m specializing in right here, particularly how is he faring compared with different latest Giro winners? How are we to know if what he has executed to date is healthier, worse, or enterprise as common for a Giro winner making an attempt to win the Tour?

To that finish, I checked out all of the riders who podiumed on the Giro after which raced the Tour since 2010. I didn’t wish to get into the Lance mess of the oughts. I did embrace not simply the Giro winners however your entire podium from that race to extend the pattern measurement. That’s 14 seasons and doubtlessly 42 Giro podium riders. The precise variety of riders was simply 11. Much more Giro podiumists skipped the Tour and did the Vuelta.

4 of the 14 seasons had no Giro podium finishers driving the Tour: 2023, 2022, 2019, and 2014, Oh, embrace 2020 because the Giro occurred after the Tour that yr. 2018 and 2016 every had two Giro podium boys driving the Tour.

So did I study something, moreover the apparent, that none of those 11 riders received each the Giro and the Tour? Certain, perhaps, in all probability: I imply simply 11 riders is a small pattern measurement so I might not guess your home on Pogacar profitable or shedding the Tour. Nonetheless, to steadiness the small pattern measurement, the standard of the riders is a who’s who of the elite GC guys. Froome. Contador. Doom. Nibali. Evans: virtually all the foremost GC guys earlier than the Roglic-Pog-Vinge-Remco technology reared their heads. And as I’ll say in a while, that’s vital. I take a more in-depth take a look at every of the 11 riders on the backside of this publish, however first some ideas on. what I see, which you’ll be able to disagree with:

None of those 11 riders who podiumed within the Giro after which raced the Tour had been main the Tour after stage 9. Pogacar has already executed one thing that they different GC heavies didn’t.

All of those 11 riders had been additionally behind the eventual Tour winner. (Normally, however not at all times there was a special Tour chief than the one who ultimately received the race as a result of opening levels had been both largely flat levels and the actual GC contest hadn’t begun or a breakaway winner nonetheless had a cushion (hel-lo Thomas Voeckler in 2011).
All 11 had misplaced important time by stage 9. In different phrases, most of them had been out of the GC race by stage 9 despite the fact that thelarge majority the entire first 9 Tour levels had been fairly flat or perhaps simply had a brief wall on one in all them. (This yr has been uncommon with the stage 4 Galibier climb.)
So if I’m not clear above, the Giro winners and different podium finishers by no means began the Tour scorching, and all rapidly misplaced time within the first week. Once more, what Pogacar is doing is one thing we haven’t seen in a very long time.
A number of the 11 Giro guys really obtained stronger or a minimum of held their very own within the final half of the Tour. 2018 with Froome and Doom meet that customary as did 2011 Contador and 2016 Valverde.
Solely 4 of the 11 Giro riders misplaced mega time by the point the Tour ended- 2010 Basso, 2012 Hesjedal, 2013 Evans, and 2016 Nibali all noticed an hour+ deficit. Yates in 2021 misplaced 37 minutes. Two DNFed- Yates in 2021 DNFed on stage 13; 2012 Hesjedal DNSed on stage 6.
5 completed the Tour inside 10 minutes of the race winner: Froome and Doom in 2018 who had been the one Giro-Tour double podium winners, 2016 and Valverde, and each 2015 and 2011 Contador. Quintana in 2017 completed quarter-hour again. Take a look at that listing and also you see many of the main GC guys of the teenagers, with Nibali the apparent exception adopted by Evans: Froome, Doom, Valverde, Contador and Quintana. High quality wins out.
So now we now have Pogacar making an attempt the double and to date outperforming by a good margin these earlier 11. He’s in first. he hasn’t misplaced time besides within the TT the place Remco was favored to beat him-much like Ganna was favored to beat him in each TTs on the Giro. There isn’t a lot proof that he’ll begin naturally fading and thus shedding time going ahead. To beat him somebody is gonna should rise to his degree and past.
I do marvel if the largest challenge of doing the double is the beginning of the Tour, and never the end. That’s what the info suggests, restricted as it’s. Speculation: in contrast to their opponents, after not having ridden a race because the Giro ended, they’ve an extended time of no race days since their competitors would inevitably race the Dauphine, Suisse, Sud, or Slovenia. It looks as if it takes a number of levels for the Giro podium boys to get their legs below them, and by the point they have they got misplaced a pair to some minutes, and from then on they’re wanting up at their competitors. By stage 9 of the Tour we usually see not solely who the actual contenders are however the eventual race winner could be very usually in first.
I’m not guaranteeing a Pog win. However I critically doubt that he’ll simply fade away. The proof simply doesn’t assist that. He ought to keep at this peak that we’re seeing. This peak of his doesn’t make it doubtless that say remco wil beat him within the very hilly TT on stage 20 since Pogs has proven a number of instances he’s aces on hilly TTs. If somebody is to beat him, they should up their recreation, and never by just a bit. They should beat Pogacar at his finest, presumably by out-maneuvering him in some tactical sleight of hand.

Beneath is a take a look at every of the 11 riders I discovered for my little research. Their mothers love every of them very a lot.

The 11 riders had been:

2021 and Simon Proper Yates (thanks Larrick) who completed third within the Giro, 4:15 behind Egan Bernal. Did Yates end the Tour? Nope! DNF stage 13. However the place was he after stage 9? 87th on GC, 37:48 behind eventual winner Tadej Pogacar. When did he begin to lose time? Stage 1 the place he completed 3:17 behind Alaphillippe on a hilly stage. Yates was simply by no means in competition even with a bunch of flat sprinter levels.

2018 had two Giro podium boys compete within the Tour and each virtually did the double. First up is Chris Froome who received the Giro on that stage 20 mountain stage when he crushed Simon Yates. Froome received the Giro by 46 seconds over Tom Dumoulin who’s the subsequent participant on this research. So how did Froome do within the Tour? third place, 2:24 behind teammate Geraint Thomas and Doom. The place was he on stage 9? eighth on GC, 59 seconds behind G a and 1:41 behind race chief Greg Van Avermaet. When did he begin to lose time? Stage 1 the place he completed 91st, 51 seconds behind the profitable bunch. His different decisive time loss was on stage 17 within the mountains- 46 seconds. It is simply onerous to make up time in a Grand Tour. It may be executed however these are the memorable Excursions which can be a lot rarer than the standard.

2018’s different rider is Doom, who completed 2nd in each the Giro and Tour so…a form of double-double? (This makes me wish to see if this double-double has ever been executed earlier than.) Anyway, Doom completed 2nd within the Giro, 46 seconds behind Froome, after which completed 2nd within the Tour, 1:51 behind G. On stage 9 he was fifteenth on GC, 1:20 behind Thomas and a pair of:03 behind race chief GVA. His decisive time loss got here on stage 6, a Mur de Bretagne stage, the place he completed 1:20 behind G.

2017 is subsequent and Nairo Quintana who was second within the Giro, 31 seconds behind Doom. The Tour noticed him end twelfth on GC, 15:28 behind winner Froome. After stage 9 he was 2:13 behind Froome. Nairoman misplaced time on a number of levels, beginning with stage 1 which was a TT stage the place he misplaced 36 seconds to Froome, and stage 5, a mountain stage the place he misplaced an additional 14 seconds. He began behind and drip drip dripped time all through the race.

2016 noticed Vincenzo Nibali win the Giro by 52 seconds over Esteban Chaves with a pleasant help from a snowbank. He then entered the Tour the place there was no snow and so completed thirty seventh in GC behind Froome by 1 hour and 20 minutes. It’s secure to say that he misplaced buckets of time far and wide and by stage 9 was thirty seventh on GC, 34:14 behind Froome with the largest loss occurring on stage 5 the place he misplaced 9:28, and stage 8 the place he bled one other 25:54. Oof.

2016 additionally noticed Alejandro Valverde place third on the Giro, 1:17 behind the Shark of Messina. He held on higher on the Tour than Nibbles, ending sixth on GC, 6:16 behind Froome. On stage 9 he was nonetheless tenth on GC, 1:01 behind Froome so after stage 9 he moved up within the GC standings although he saved shedding time. Stage 9 noticed him lose 42 seconds to Froome.

2015 calls with Alberto Contador who had received the Giro by 1:53 over Fabio Aru. The Accountant completed the Tour fifth on GC, 9:48 behind Froome. Stage 9 noticed him additionally fifth on GC, 1:03 behind Froome. Contador misplaced little bits of time over the primary 4 levels, 46 seconds in complete. Stage 10 noticed him drop to 4:04 behind Froome and out of any form of critical competition. He did not have an actual comeback like he did in 2011. Nonetheless he had a high 5 end.
Skip to 2013 and third place Giro finisher Cadel Evans who completed that race 5:52 behind Nibali. Come the Tour Cadel completed thirty ninth on GC, 1 hour and half-hour behind Froome. By means of stage 9 Cadel was sixteenth on GC, 4:36 behind Froome. The place did he lose his time? So many locations however allow us to begin on stage 8 the place he completed 4:36 in arrears. He saved shedding time fairly constantly after that.

2012 noticed Roger Hesjedal win the Giro, 16 seconds forward of J-Rod. Do not forget that? The Tour wasn’t so type to him as he DNS on stage 7. Stage 6 is the place he hit the wall as he began the stage ninth on GC, 18 seconds behind race chief Cancellara and completed 181st on the pretty flat stage, 13:24 behind stage winner Peter Sagan.

2011 sees Contador again on this listing in his bizarre enchantment yr. keep in mind? He was busted after the 2010 Tour however received a reversal in Spain on enchantment. Then as he was ready for the CAS determination he raced a really energetic 2011 together with a really troublesome Giro by 6:10 forward of Scarponi who would later be declared champion after Contador misplaced his enchantment. However on the time we didn’t know that and so we noticed not solely an enormous Contador win however we noticed him enter the Tour the place he completed fifth on GC 3:57 behind Cadel Evans. By stage 9 he was 1:18 behind Evans and all of that was misplaced on stage 1. If you happen to take a look at the race stage by stage you see Contador getting stronger because the race went on, together with his final stage being stage 19 with a long-range assault ending with a third place on Alpe d’huez the place Pierre Roland received.

2010 and Ivan Basso joins this listing as he received the Giro by 1:51 over David Arroyo (keep in mind that superb descent by Arroyo off the Mortirolo within the rain?). Anyway, Basso entered the Tour the place he completed thirtieth on GC, 59:33 behind Contador who was later DQed. Stage 9 noticed Basso 5:09 behind Andy Schleck who was later awarded the general win. His huge loss on time was on stage 18 however being down 5 minutes by stage 9 says to the world that you’re out of competition.