It’s plain that Payton Pritchard has been cooking with one thing just a little stronger than canola oil. His minutes and effectivity are each up, his scoring is method up, and the vibes are so up they’re blowing a gap by the ceiling and attaining escape velocity. Is all of this actual, and whether it is, what ought to we do with it?
Saturday evening’s conflict with the Charlotte Hornets gave us some extra knowledge to work with. He dropped 22 factors in 29 minutes, obtained scorching within the first half and cooled off within the second. It’s his fifth 15+ level efficiency of the season, and by plenty of counting stats, he needs to be the favourite to win Sixth Man of the Yr. Betting markets positive suppose so.
However has Pritchard truly turn out to be a dynamic off-the-bench spark plug who may bail the Celtics out of sketchy conditions in large video games? After principally enjoying particular groups within the NBA Finals, has he finished sufficient for a constant function come playoff time? It is probably not such a easy “sure.”
Whereas it’s true that Pritchard is scoring lots, he’s nonetheless a one-dimensional offensive participant. He’s feisty off the ball, however as soon as he will get it, he’s nonetheless a pure three-point specialist that has gotten criminally scorching 4 instances in seven video games. Out of 78 whole pictures this season, 66 of them have threes. That’s not a very attention-grabbing shot weight loss program, but it surely’s virtually definitely what the Celtics need him doing in Joe Mazzulla’s system.
And he’s knocking them down. Of all NBA gamers with not less than 50 three-point makes an attempt this season, he’s first in capturing share at 44.9%. Any crew would kill for that quantity off the bench, particularly at respectable quantity. With the Celtics asking different groups to protect 4 completely different good-to-great creators, rolling out a sniper to go with them is the maraschino cherry on the award-winning ice cream sundae from the Del Frisco’s dessert menu.
The outcomes have been there, however Pritchard’s drawback will likely be reproducing them when the Celtics really want it. He hasn’t achieved this wonderful 45% by a bunch of stable nights, however by being both scalding scorching or frigid from past the arc, with no in-between. Listed here are his first seven splits in chronological order:
11.1percent50.0percent71.4percent66.7percent36.4percent0.0percent50.0%
Taking pictures is a fickle artwork. With what number of of his pictures are threes, Pritchard will likely be extra inclined to the swings of variance than most different gamers in his tier. There’s a purpose you reside by the three and die by the three. There isn’t a both/or in that enterprise.
Essentially, Pritchard lacks the additive abilities wanted to remain on the court docket if his shot isn’t falling for anyone evening. He’s not a detrimental or disinterested defender, however lacks the bodily instruments to hold with most elite shot creators who will search and destroy Pritchard again and again.
Many iterations of this Celtics crew have wanted Pritchard’s capturing on paper, however have been unable to maintain him on the market in the true world. With pick-and-roll destroyers like Jimmy Butler and Donovan Mitchell lurking within the Japanese Convention and loads of assassins within the West, Pritchard’s limitations can solely be masked by a nuclear offensive outburst. Would the Celtics guess on that in a playoff sequence?
I’m unsure they might. With everybody wholesome, Sam Hauser will doubtless stay the Celtics’ seventh man in most matchups, with a defensive potential Pritchard merely lacks. If the Celtics lose somebody to damage, Pritchard is an effective “break glass in case of emergency” creator who could make one thing occur off the dribble, his important leg up on Hauser. However when the off-the-dribble obligations are lined, Pritchard’s function could also be smaller than some will need.
Pritchard has proven a capability to enhance 12 months over 12 months, as since falling out of the rotation in 2022 he has carved out extra minutes, pictures and factors for himself whereas securing a brand new contract. That’s no small feat, and the Celtics will proceed to sculpt methods for him to make an affect; half-court pictures are solely the start.
Relying on how optimistic you’re, that is both the subsequent step in Pritchard’s growth as an elite scoring sixth man or an excellent aberration fueled by unsustainable three-point luck. However questioning if Pritchard goes to be a purposeful sixth man within the playoffs is an effective drawback to have, and extra indicative of the Celtics’ embarrassment of riches than one thing Boston ought to truly lose sleep over.
If he can play, nice. If he doesn’t have it, they’ll be fantastic. The problem will likely be determining which sport is which, and the Celtics have six months to find out how. Certain, Pritchard’s begin to the season is likely to be a mirage, however one you’ll be able to take info from and use it to get higher. Not a nasty deal. Not unhealthy in any respect.
