Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/24/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! In the present day I carry you a relatively temporary chat (simply an hour) and the ultimate one from this 2 pm ET time slot. Subsequent week, I’ll be a part of our group Wild Card chat (particulars tba), and in two weeks, I’m planning to debut within the 12 pm ET slot on Tuesdays.

Jay Jaffe: That is primarily as a result of parenting duties — largely pick-ups from college  — have been reducing into this 2 pm time. I hope these of you who’ve joined me right here will make the journey.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve received a bit as we speak that’s the primary of a four-part sequence, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining contenders in a Substitute Stage Killers-style journey across the diamond, solely this time with pitching as nicely. This primary installment is dedicated to the most effective within the NL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-strongest-positions-on-the-remaining-n…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the present…

brooklyn resident: Ohtani: finest DH season ever?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, i believe that’s a good assertion

Rick: Adell confirmed some 2nd half enhancements earlier than getting harm and went 20/15 in 400 abs. How possible can he be a 30 HR hitter and up his common to the .230 vary. He was a high prospect, perhaps he’s a late bloomer

Jay Jaffe: He lastly caught within the majors for a full season and shaved 7.5 proportion factors off his earlier carer strikeout price however .207/.280/.402 (90 wRC+) is nothing to jot down house about. He did fall a bit wanting his .231 xBA and .431 xSLG however he didn’t hit the ball onerous sufficient to offset his 28% strikeout price. It’s a begin however he’s nonetheless not the place he must be given his prospect days

Harvey Wallbanger: Brewers haven’t misplaced greater than three video games in a row all yr, they’ve the fewest blowout losses in MLB by a big margin, they’re high notch throughout the boards in all of the little issues like bullpen WPA, DRS, BsR, hitting with RISP, hitting with two outs, they’ve the previous codger archetype supervisor, with a roster filled with younger place gamers that don’t know any higher…might this lastly be their yr?!?!?!?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve received quite a bit going for them however I take a look at that lineup and see simply 4 regulars with a 100 wRC+ or higher with Yelich out. I’d mood my hopes

Talfred: With younger outfielders on the rise in Boston, the Purple Sox aren’t going to search out a lot of a marketplace for Yoshida, are they? A platoon lefty bat with little energy, protection or baserunning worth is a tricky promote at $18MM per.

Jay Jaffe: In the event that they soak up sufficient wage they will discover a new house for him. Anyone should play for the White Sox

Inverse Cy Younger: Has Mikolas or Corbin been the largest web damaging in certified SP? I carry this up as a result of each are okay through FIP, however ERA and the attention take a look at say they’ve been horrible. It appears FIP misses one thing with guys like them.

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, the purpose of FIP is to concentrate on the defense-independent points of pitching (strikeouts, walks, homers), however the assumption that held for the higher a part of 20 years — that main league pitchers don’t differ drastically on their capacity to manage balls in play — has been considerably supplanted by Statcast knowledge that reveals that some pitchers are higher than others at suppressing onerous contact. Mikolas and Corbin each have 5+ ERAs and 4.3-ish FIPs, however their xERAs — which bear in mind Statcast batted ball knowledge in addition to their walks and strikeouts — reveals Corbin with a 5.57 mark, worst amongst qualifiers, however Mikolas with a 4.47 mark, not good however not hopeless.

Bay of Bengal: I’m not a Tigers fan — I’m an O’s fan — but it surely appears to me that in MLB’s new four-round playoff extravaganza, the staff that wins is the most popular staff, not the most effective. Thus I predict the Tigers win the World Sequence.What’s your take? Who’s scorching and able to sweep by means of higher regular-season groups subsequent month?

Jay Jaffe: What it reveals is that September data don’t predict October efficiency. There’s virtually no correlation, and for each red-hot 2007 Rockies staff streaking by means of the playoffs there’s a 2006 Cardinals staff in some way getting their shit collectively on the final minute

Jay Jaffe: That the Tigers have perhaps two viable beginning pitchers didn’t even determine in your considering, huh?

Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: As voters have turn out to be extra sabermetrically-inclined lately, do positional awards like ASG appearances, Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves, and so forth. nonetheless maintain weight? Or are they extra window dressing at this level?

Jay Jaffe: They’re peripheral numbers that assist body a participant’s case, however they range in worth. Completely no one pays consideration to the Silver Slugger awards; I positive as hell don’t. Gold Gloves have gotten a bit extra helpful because of the incorporation of the SABR Defensive Index aggregating a number of totally different metrics into 25% of the vote. All-Star appearances are tougher to amass the extra the leagues broaden, and typically nice gamers get bypassed. Francisco Lindor hasn’t made an All-Star staff as a Met resulting from some sluggish begins, and since Adrian Beltre’s defensive worth was underestimated he made solely 4 All-Star groups in an amazing profession.

Sodo Mojo: In case your the Mariner’s do you pencil in Robles as a starter subsequent yr primarily based on the final 200 at bats or given his monitor file do you herald one other starter within the off season.

Jay Jaffe: Given the two-year, $9.75 million extension Robles already signed with the Mariners, it appears fairly clear they consider him as a starter. He was at all times well-regarded as a prospect, but it surely took a change of surroundings and a few mechanical changes to get him up to now (see Davy Andrews right here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vacillating-for-victor-robles/). That’s to not say that he received’t regress however as we’ve seen repeatedly, swing modifications can drastically alter a participant’s profession path.

jackson: merrill or chourio remainder of profession?

Jay Jaffe: Sure please!

Jay Jaffe: When you’re asking me to select between the 2, hell, I dunno. I’d go together with Merrill as a result of did very nicely in middle whereas Chourio is now a nook outfielder (he did very nicely there, by the metrics). Eric Longehagen had Chourio fifth and Merrill sixth on his Prime 100 — that is just about a toss-up.

Talfred: Apart from a single Ohtani begin following a 2-inning outing, neither Ohtani nor Yamamoto have ever pitched on fewer than 5 days of relaxation. Is there any method that the Dodgers may even take into account a 5-man rotation subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: Extra possible they use a modified 5-man as they did earlier within the yr, utilizing spot starters and openers to purchase the occasional further day of relaxation for each. Will probably be an fascinating juggling act; let’s hope it doesn’t reprise this yr’s shuttle to the IL, which appears to board day by day.

A Identify: Wonderful that the worst staff of all time (the Yankees) is about to win their division. Clearly Cole and Rodon are the primary two playoff starters, however I’m wondering in the event that they preserve all 4 of the opposite starters on the roster and piggyback, say, Gil/Cortes and Schmidt/Stroman? That looks like a technique to handle danger with some high-variance pitchers.

Jay Jaffe: Stroman has already been advised he would pitch out of the bullpen within the postseason so I believe the selection for the opposite starters might depend upon matchups and their estimation of whether or not Gil is bodily as much as the duty given his enormous workload enhance.

Andrew: My favourite a part of the offseason is studying your HOF profiles. Are there any first-time candidates you’re notably excited to jot down about?

Jay Jaffe: oh it’s a bumper crop this yr: Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia are the 2 huge ones; Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez all deserve prolonged value determinations as their careers aren’t that far off the common Corridor of Famer, and since I’ve needed to hearken to years and years of Yadier Molina-flavored reward, I’m going to pound the desk concerning the worth of pitch framing in terms of the instances of Russell Martin and Brian McCann, each of whom have been about as worthwhile as Molina when you incorporate these numbers.

Phil: How a lot rope and/or time ought to Pirates followers give the present entrance workplace?  Whereas they may have one thing with growing arms, the bats are non-existent.

Jay Jaffe: The bats are an issue, however the actual downside is possession’s willingness to compete for high quality free brokers

Astros 1B: Who am I subsequent yr? Pete may very well be a fascinating choice in the event that they let Breg stroll, however the class is fairly dire after that and no prospect of theirs has a ok bat to waste at 1B. Singleton is playable, however not excellent for a contender

Jay Jaffe: It wouldn’t shock me in any respect if Alonso have been to signal with the Astros, although they might repeat their ability of catching falling knives by going or Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo or Justin Turner or… they might additionally do the stopgap factor and check out Carlos Santana or Josh Bell, both for a full season or simply the final two months in the event that they signal with non-contenders (as has so typically occurred).

Jon Singleton is a good human curiosity story however at finest a bench man.

Jim: Does six weeks in Indy price Skenes the Cy, or will his manufacturing outweigh his relative lack of bulk?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Chris Sale’s glorious and full season goes to be what prices Skenes the Cy but it surely’s value noting that Sale’s 2.09 FIP is a good distance higher than Skenes’ 2.48, and over a bigger footprint of innings.

birds birds birds: I do know the playoffs are principally coin tosses, however how a lot better would the O’s odds of advancing be with Grayson Rodriguez making a begin than Suarez/Kremer?

Jay Jaffe: That is a particularly Dan Szymborski-flavored questiontaht will most likely be answered quickly.

Mark S: After a Cy Younger season, what does Chris Sale should do over the rest of his profession to really feel comparatively protected a couple of HOF spot? He’s as much as 54 bWAR and 48 JAWS, nonetheless wanting the normal benchmarks however a lot better than the place he was heading into his age 35 season.

Jay Jaffe: Largely he simply wants bulk. He’s nonetheless wanting 2,000 innings and whereas I don’t count on him to get to three,000, he most likely wants a number of extra wholesome seasons (say, 150 innings) to make his case extra strong.

NL-A’s fan: Jay, do you assume it unhealthy for baseball that the White Sox are such a joke this yr or is it constructive that them possible braking the file attracts extra consideration to baseball?

Jay Jaffe: it’s unhealthy for baseball.

Jay Jaffe: Notably having a large-market staff that must be on sturdy monetary footing doing a poverty act and principally banging rocks collectively as an alternative of utilizing fashionable analytics strategies is a rattling embarrassment.

Brewer fan: On the Brewers, it’s actually 5 on a regular basis hitters with a wRC+ over 100 together with Mitchell….They’ve held fairly regular among the many high run producing lineups all season even with out Yelich resulting from getting on base and baserunning.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t rely Mitchell in that group as a result of he has solely 209 PA and his Statcast numbers don’t recommend what he’s doing is especially sustainable (.393 xSLG, for one). However we’ll see if I’m flawed

Mike: Will Baldelli preserve his job (heck, the FO too?) if the Twins don’t make the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a superb query. I feel they’ll most likely survive — I hope so for the sake of previous pal Kevin Goldstein — however that is trying like a very grotesque collapse these days.

Visitor: Do you assume we’re going to see a repeat of the 2023 Dodgers this yr?  An incredible staff undone within the post-season by an absence of high quality beginning pitching?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s totally attainable they go that route. I imply, a yr in the past I couldn’t have advised you who Landon Knack was and now he’s fairly presumably their Recreation 3 starter.

Idiotic Failson: I’m assuming Gleyber leaves and Jazz strikes to 2nd. What do the Yankees do at third subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: they take Gil McDougald out of cryostorage.

Jay Jaffe: I believe they don’t commit both technique to Chisholm till a minimum of after the winter conferences as a result of they most likely must make a commerce to fill one place or the opposite

Michael Scarn: The Braves had an opportunity to set their rotation to permit Sale to pitch tonight and Sunday.  They determined to pitch him solely as soon as, Wednesday.  Might or not it’s that the Braves would reasonably miss the postseason than to make use of Sale in g162 which implies he can be unavailable for the first spherical?

Jay Jaffe: I famous this in yesterday’s and as we speak’s items. Sale has already thrown extra innings than in any season since 2017, and his fastball velo is down sufficient that they felt they couldn’t push him for 2 begins on common relaxation. I don’t assume for a second it’s a matter of “reasonably miss the postseason” a lot as it’s believing they’ve a greater shot at going someplace by giving him a bit of additional relaxation and hoping they’ve sufficient arms (and bats) to make up floor.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been probably the most enjoyably shocking factor for you this common season?

Jay Jaffe: three issues which can be very centered round my very own viewing habits:

1) Ohtani’s newfound zeal for stealing bases, which has made for an historic season

2) Choose’s otherworldly efficiency since snapping out of his season-opening stoop, to not point out his good well being (knocks wooden)

3) Lindor’s vault into the MVP race whereas serving to the Mets turned what appeared prefer it could be a writeoff season into one which’s been a whole lot of enjoyable to observe.

wheelhouse: what are the percentages mike elias is the orioles GM in 2027? brutal string of transactions this yr other than the burnes commerce

Jay Jaffe: Most likely nonetheless fairly good. You possibly can quibble with the offers he did/didn’t do that yr however he’s turned the franchise round and has a complete boatload of expertise and a brand new, dedicated proprietor. No matter what occurs over the following six weeks, we haven’t heard the final of this staff

Jay Jaffe: OK people, I mentioned this may be a brief one, and I’m going to chop if off right here. Thanks a lot for stopping by to assist bid farewell to my 2pm timeslot. Look ahead to me at 12pm on Tuesdays, beginning in two weeks.