Jay Jaffe’s 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this 12 months’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS will be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing undertaking, see right here. All WAR figures confer with the Baseball Reference model except in any other case indicated.

“What do I do about Félix Hernández?” Even earlier than my 2025 Corridor of Fame poll arrived within the mail in late November, that query loomed over my plans to fill it out. Anticipating a crunch for house however figuring out that the previous Cy Younger winner — who’s on the poll for the primary time this 12 months — is considerably in need of the S-JAWS normal, the straightforward reply of leaving him off was all the time proper there. But given years of debate concerning the altering panorama for beginning pitchers (and by extension, beginning pitcher candidates), I made a decision to take a seat with the potential of voting for him proper as much as the purpose the place I reached for my pen.

I’ll take you thru my course of concerning the Félix query quickly sufficient. That is my fifth 12 months with an precise poll, however filling one out and having it depend nonetheless seems like a novelty within the context of 24 years of analyzing Corridor of Fame elections, and 22 of doing so whereas armed with the system that grew to become JAWS (the official twentieth anniversary of the metric’s introduction was in January). With so many mentors, friends, and colleagues having come and gone on this racket, I’m grateful to have caught round lengthy sufficient to have earned the precise to vote, and it’s a privilege I sit up for, even with the accompanying scrutiny and criticism.

Within the weeks because the Corridor unveiled this 12 months’s 28-candidate slate, I’ve analyzed the highest 21 candidates at size in my collection. I’ve nonetheless acquired seven one-and-done stragglers to cowl in early January, none of whom I significantly thought of for my poll; certainly, none of these seven has secured a single vote from among the many 64 ballots printed within the Poll Tracker as of 12:01 AM ET Monday, however their careers deserve a correct valedictory. Whereas I’ve principally identified whom I deliberate to incorporate, as all the time, I’ve gone by my full course of earlier than finalizing my poll, simply as I did with my digital ones. Notably given my current makes an attempt to replace the pitching facet of JAWS, it by no means hurts to take one other look.

After electing simply 4 candidates from 2020–23, final 12 months the writers elected three, serving to to clear among the backlog amongst these inside vary of election. This 12 months’s crop of newcomers compelled me to mirror upon my very own course of, notably close to starters and catchers, whose pitch framing knowledge paints them in a brand new gentle.

The poll isn’t practically as crowded because it was earlier than. Circa 2014, 14 candidates met or exceeded the JAWS requirements at their respective positions, and 17 had a JAWS of no less than 50.0 (or 40.0 for catchers), thus requiring all however probably the most small-Corridor-minded voters to carry out triage to winnow the sector all the way down to 10 candidates who may match on their ballots. This time round, solely two candidates meet or exceed the JAWS requirements at their place, although two are inside two factors, eight are at 50.0, and the 2 catchers are at 40.0 utilizing my experimental, framing-inclusive model of JAWS.

Even with these numbers diminished relative to their current peak, there’s nonetheless no such factor as an ideal poll. With my annual train has all the time come an acknowledgement of the quite a few subjective selections that go into deciding on even probably the most objective-minded slate. How a lot leeway to grant if one is utilizing WAR and JAWS? How a lot emphasis to placed on postseason efficiency, awards, and fewer quantifiable concerns? The place to attract the road relating to performance-enhancing medication or off-field points, topics that will or could not fall beneath the umbrella of the character clause? What to do in regards to the declining workloads of beginning pitchers, or the wealth of information we have now for current catchers that we didn’t have for these of yesteryear? Perfection could also be unattainable, however it’s nonetheless value pursuing. If we don’t get there… nicely, we do one of the best we are able to.

With that ample preamble out of the best way, right here’s how the subset of 21 candidates stacks up through JAWS:

As famous, I’ve used my workload-adjusted S-JAWS for beginning pitchers (detailed right here), which brings the above starters nearer to the usual however nonetheless leaves even the highest-ranked ones, Buehrle and Pettitte, greater than 9 factors off the tempo. Likewise, I’ve used my leverage-adjusted R-JAWS for aid pitchers (defined right here), and whereas that doesn’t push Wagner previous the usual, it makes him the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor.

The yellow cells present the place candidates meet or exceed the profession, peak, or JAWS requirements at their positions, and as you possibly can see, the desk is fairly gentle relative to years previous. Final 12 months, Adrian Beltré and Joe Mauer each exceeded all three, however each had been elected; additionally elected was Todd Helton, who exceeded two of three (peak and JAWS). However whereas we’re left a scant crop that clears the requirements strictly talking, we’ve acquired just a few spots the place a participant is inside one level, which is shut sufficient for my tastes, and in constructing my poll I’ve taken a considerably looser strategy, as I’ll element beneath.

Let’s begin with the “integrity, sportsmanship, [and] character” part of the voting guidelines. Till Mark McGwire landed on the 2007 poll, that clause was by no means actually used to exclude anybody; in the meantime, the varied electoral our bodies have admitted a parade of spitballers, sign-stealers, racists, cheaters, and abusers. The clause was the brainchild of Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who brimmed with such integrity that he spent his total 24-year time period as commissioner upholding the sport’s shameful shade line. The historical past of that hypocrisy and so many others — witness the election of Bud Selig, himself steeped within the collusion of the Nineteen Eighties in addition to the overseeing of the so-called Steroid Period — leads me to keep away from placing any inventory within the clause, however I do have my very own methods of coping with the darker facets of gamers’ candidacies.

As I’ve stated for over a decade concerning candidates related to PEDs, I draw a line between these whose allegations date to the time when the sport had no testing routine or technique of punishment (i.e., previous to 2004) and people who got here afterwards. With no technique of implementing a paper ban, and with gamers flouting such a ban being rewarded left and proper amid what was really a whole institutional failure that implicated crew homeowners, the commissioner, and the gamers union in addition to the gamers, I merely don’t assume voters can apply a retroactive morality to that interval.

That distinction was why I voted for the likes of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Gary Sheffield, however with Shef’s BBWAA candidacy expired, this poll’s solely PED-connected gamers had been ones who drew suspensions, specifically A-Rod and Manny. On a performance-only foundation, each would get my vote, and likewise if their failing the supposedly nameless 2003 survey check had been their solely PED-related transgression, however each determined to press their luck and are paying the value. A-Rod is one among seven gamers with no less than 3,000 hits and 500 homers, and he ranks twelfth in WAR amongst all place gamers, however his full-season suspension for utilizing PEDs purchased from the Biogenesis clinic from 2010–12 is a black mark I can’t overlook. Likewise close to Manny, one of many biggest hitters of all time; his 154 OPS+ ranks twentieth amongst gamers with no less than 7,000 PA, however I nonetheless can’t get previous the 2 failed checks, not when higher gamers who by no means examined constructive are being stored out. Yearly, I think about whether or not it’s time to take a brand new strategy with such candidates, however I’m not altering my thoughts this 12 months.

Be aware that I’ve not used allegations of home violence to disqualify candidates from consideration, although such issues are much more critical than PEDs. I can definitely perceive voters selecting to rule such candidates out.

As for who’s on my poll, the navigation widget above hyperlinks to their profiles, the place I’m going into a lot higher element than I can right here. For the gamers who’ve gone unmentioned, likewise you possibly can examine my reservations inside their profiles linked within the widget above. To start, the 2 high-profile newcomers get my nod:

Ichiro Suzuki (seventeenth amongst proper fielders in JAWS)

Suzuki clears solely the height normal, however that’s primarily as a result of he didn’t make his stateside debut till after his twenty seventh birthday, having received three Pacific League MVP awards in Japan. His 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, 3,089 hits, and two batting titles are greater than sufficient to justify voting for him, and to date all people who’s printed their poll has. He was a pleasure to look at and to cowl, an amazing international ambassador for the game.

CC Sabathia (fifty fifth amongst beginning pitchers in JAWS)

A six-time All-Star, Cy Younger winner, and simply the third left-hander to succeed in 3,000 strikeouts, Sabathia was a workhorse the likes of which we most likely received’t see once more. No person born after 1966 has topped his 3,577 1/3 innings, and Sabathia was born 14 years later. Whereas he’s a bit in need of the S-JAWS normal, he stands out relative to his contemporaries given his full résumé, which features a stellar efficiency through the Yankees’ 2009 championship run and a larger-than-life efficiency in carrying the Brewers to their first playoff look in 26 years the season earlier than. Mix his numbers and accomplishments with a really human and really public story of dependancy and restoration, to not point out a highlight as one of the crucial outstanding Black voices within the sport, and this one is a simple name.

From there it’s on to 3 candidates who clear no less than one normal, all holdovers from my earlier ballots:

Chase Utley (twelfth amongst second basemen in JAWS, 28.8% in 2024)

Regardless of not drawing greater than 300 plate appearances in a season till age 26, Utley is simply 0.1 factors shy of the JAWS normal on the keystone, and ninth in peak as nicely because of the large impression of his fielding and baserunning, which mirrored his excessive baseball IQ. His late arrival contributed to his ending with simply 1,885 hits; even with the Period Committee election of Tony Oliva, the writers have but to elect anyone from the post-1960 growth period who completed with fewer than 2,000. Between that scarcity and voters’ failure to acknowledge him on MVP ballots and within the Gold Glove awards — he was bypassed for the previous in favor of teammates Rollins and Ryan Howard, and in some way by no means received the latter — he’s been left with an uphill battle for election. Nonetheless, his first-year share was greater than these of current honorees Helton, Tim Raines, Scott Rolen, and Larry Walker, and per the Tracker, it appears to be like like he’s gaining some floor.

Carlos Beltrán (ninth amongst heart fielders in JAWS, 57.1% in 2023)

The quintessential five-tool participant, Beltrán is one among eight with no less than 300 homers and 300 steals, and owns the best stolen base success fee (86.4%) of any participant with no less than 200 makes an attempt. He’s a bit beneath all three requirements at a really top-heavy place, however he’s one of the best eligible heart fielder outdoors the Corridor and one of many prime 10 all time.

Beltrán may already be enshrined if he hadn’t been on the heart of the Astros’ unlawful sign-stealing scandal, which nipped his managerial profession within the bud. Whereas his personal efficiency didn’t profit, he did one thing towards the principles, and it continued by a postseason by which his crew received a championship. Not each participant was comfy with it (McCann, for one, requested him to cease), but when we’re to imagine the varied experiences, no person stood as much as him firmly sufficient to derail the scheme. Provided that supervisor A.J. Hinch reportedly destroyed two screens in response to the scheme, it’s value questioning each his management functionality and the handy scapegoating of Beltrán as a lone actor; the asymmetry of Hinch and bench coach-turned-Purple Sox supervisor Alex Cora returning to the dugout after one-year suspensions whereas Beltrán hasn’t even gotten one other interview ought to boost an eyebrow as nicely. It’s additionally value noting that like spitballing/ball-doctoring, sign-stealing is a habits that exists alongside a continuum of baseball historical past that stretches again practically a century and a half. The fan in me empathizes with that nice 2017 Dodgers crew being cheated out of a title, however the business skilled in me is aware of that the Astros had been merely probably the most excessive instance of a crew stealing indicators electronically, a few of which had been in the end reported and others simply whispered about.

Lengthy story quick, after spending hours speaking about Beltrán’s case with buddies and fellow writers (a few of them voters), I returned to the framework of my PED coverage: If the commissioner couldn’t punish him for what he did, I’m not going to play the vigilante and administer frontier justice on behalf of MLB or the Corridor, therefore my continued inclusion of Beltrán. At this writing, he’s really above 75% within the Tracker; whereas I don’t anticipate that to carry up, it’s clear he’ll be on his option to Cooperstown quickly.

Andruw Jones (eleventh amongst heart fielders in JAWS, 61.6% in 2024)

If 2018 Corridor of Fame honoree Chipper Jones was the Braves dynasty’s offensive cornerstone, Andruw Jones was its defensive one, an elite flychaser who received 10 Gold Gloves and ranks first on the place in fielding runs (+235). He may hit, too, bopping 434 profession homers. His profession collapsed at age 31, nevertheless; he performed simply 435 video games over his remaining 5 seasons, disappearing from the majors at age 35, and so whereas he’s nicely above the height normal, he’s quick on the profession one and in JAWS. I’m not so bothered given his relative rating and the truth that the requirements in heart and proper area are just a few factors greater than each different place. After two years within the mid-7% vary, he added greater than 50 share factors over the subsequent 4 cycles, and whereas his progress slowed final 12 months, he’s acquired an excellent shot at eventual election by the writers; at present, he’s polling above 70%.

One different holdover is a simple name:

Billy Wagner (sixth amongst relievers in R-JAWS, 73.8% in 2023)

The holder of the all-time information for strikeout fee and opponent batting common, albeit at only a 900-inning threshold, Wagner is in need of the admittedly slapdash normal established by the eight enshrined relievers. Since I’ve by no means been completely happy with how JAWS handles that small group, I’ve remained open-minded, in search of alternate methods to guage relievers. By R-JAWS, which contains Win Chance Added (WPA) and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI) in addition to WAR, Wagner is the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor, trailing solely Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Wealthy Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman. After debuting at 10.5% in 2016 and gaining little floor within the subsequent three cycles, his assist greater than quadrupled from 2019 to ’23. Final 12 months, he fell 5 votes in need of election, and now, in his remaining 12 months of eligibility, he’s already flipped 5 no votes to sure. He’s nearly definitely on his approach.

All that’s the straightforward half. Setting apart two different potential holdovers for the second, I’ve acquired three first-year candidates who’re in grey areas:

Russell Martin (twenty eighth amongst catchers in conventional JAWS, fifth in framing-inclusive JAWS)

A four-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner, Martin was underappreciated throughout the mainstream throughout his profession, however groundbreaking research quantifying the worth of pitch framing revealed him to be among the many sport’s elite receivers. Performing upon that, each the Pirates and Blue Jays seen him as a doubtlessly transformative addition, prioritized signing him, and had been rewarded with a number of playoff appearances, ending droughts of longer than twenty years. In actual fact, Martin’s groups made the playoffs 11 instances in his 14 seasons, and that’s not a coincidence.

Martin is the profession chief in FanGraphs’ model of framing runs, 0.1 forward of McCann. Since Baseball Reference’s model of WAR doesn’t embody framing, however since that space of the sport has been proven to be so impactful — with a lot wider spreads from prime to backside than blocking or throwing out baserunners — I imagine we’re doing Twenty first-century candidates a disservice if we fail to include this significant space into our evaluation. Thus, for Martin and McCann, I’ve used a FanGraphs-based model of WAR and JAWS that includes Baseball Prospectus’ framing values for the years earlier than 2008 as the primary worth metric; name them frWAR, frPeak, and frJAWS. Voìla:

Whereas I want we had framing numbers for extra catchers, league-wide pitch-by-pitch knowledge for balls and strikes — and thus the flexibility to find out known as strikes above common, the premise for pre-PITCHf/x framing estimates — doesn’t exist earlier than 1988. So we’re left to match those we do have, and everybody within the desk above is head and shoulders above the remainder of the pack, with the next-highest ranked catcher, Yasmani Grandal, at 36.8 frJAWS however now not very productive.

Martin was the fifth-most invaluable place participant within the majors from 2006–16, with 50.6 fWAR; that trails solely Miguel Cabrera (62.5), Albert Pujols (52.7), Beltré (52.1), and Utley (51.8). The similarity of Martin’s frJAWS rating to that of Mauer and the upcoming Posey and Molina tandem leads me to conclude he’s value a vote, and I’m much more sure that voters want to think about these items close to Twenty first century catchers, notably because the automated ball and strike system isn’t going to render this talent out of date. The pitch-by-pitch utilization of ABS was roundly rejected by Triple-A gamers, coaches, and managers final summer season in favor of a problem system restricted to some calls per sport, and it’s not even clear when that can attain the majors. I don’t assume Martin will attain 75% anytime quickly; I simply hope he can pull 5% so we are able to proceed this dialogue subsequent 12 months.

Brian McCann (thirty fifth amongst catchers in conventional JAWS, seventh in framing-inclusive JAWS)

A seven-time All-Star who bashed 282 house runs, McCann was a greater hitter than Martin (110 to 101 by way of OPS+), and the 2 are kind of deadlocked in our model of framing runs (165.7 to 165.6 in Martin’s favor). Baseball Prospectus’ pre-PITCHf/x knowledge exhibits that whereas Martin arrived within the majors as a superb framer, McCann was initially a awful one; he shortly improved, however the two are 63.3 runs aside for 2005–07, because the above desk exhibits, and 6 factors aside in frJAWS. Once more, I feel this dialogue is value persevering with within the coming years, and really feel it’s notably necessary to incorporate each on my poll, even when that requires me to do a little bit of juggling.

Félix Hernández (97th in S-JAWS)

King Félix is on the root of my ballot-crowding drawback. From 2007–15, he was third within the majors with 45.9 WAR (together with offense) behind solely Clayton Kershaw (49.4, regardless of not debuting till Could 25, 2008) and Zack Greinke (47.0), two future Corridor of Famers, and from ’09–15, he was one of the best pitcher within the American League by ERA, strikeouts, and WAR. In that latter span, he made six All-Star groups, received a Cy Younger, completed second twice, and fourth, seventh, and eighth in three different years. He was simply 19 when he debuted, and was labored so laborious that by his age-29 season (2015), he’d thrown extra innings than every other starter who debuted after 1972 apart from Fernando Valenzuela. He by no means reached the postseason and was simply 33 when he threw his final aggressive pitch; his fastball had misplaced its zip and he was unable to make the changes essential to additional his profession.

By S-JAWS, it’s straightforward sufficient to dismiss Hernández’s candidacy, however in gentle of the workload adjustments that should dial down our expectations for starters, it’s value contemplating different approaches. I attempted just a few on for dimension; the closest I’ve come to being satisfied is predicated on Mike Petriello’s have a look at WAR throughout seven or 10 consecutive seasons, one thing I attempted myself on the event of two-time Cy Younger winner Corey Kluber’s retirement. For the 2005–14 stretch, Hernández did have the best WAR of any pitcher, and as Petriello notes, of the 19 pitchers who could make the same declare for any 10-year interval going again to 1950, 13 are within the Corridor, two extra are on their approach (Kershaw and Max Scherzer), and one can be in if not for PED allegations (Clemens). That leaves Dave Stieb, Ron Guidry, and Hernández — three pitchers with nice however quick careers — to reckon with.

I’m not saying I imagine all three belong within the Corridor, and I’m not but satisfied Hernández does, however I do know that I don’t need him to fall off the poll and be solid right into a decades-long limbo alongside two-time Cy Younger winner Johan Santana, who obtained simply 2.4% on a really crowded 2018 poll. I’m voting for Hernández to assist guarantee he reaches 5% and maintains eligibility, which might give voters — myself included — no less than one other 12 months to let his candidacy marinate.

With apologies to Pedroia and Wright, two nice gamers whose careers simply weren’t lengthy sufficient, the selection comes down to 2 different gamers for my tenth spot. I’ve included one on all 4 of my earlier ballots:

Bobby Abreu (twenty second amongst proper fielders in JAWS, 14.8% in 2024)

A five-tool participant with dazzling velocity, a candy left-handed stroke, and sufficient energy to win a Residence Run Derby, Abreu was a stathead favourite because of his otherworldly plate self-discipline. He posted on-base percentages of .400 or greater eight instances (.395 for his profession) because of his means to take a stroll (100 or extra eight years in a row). But regardless of routinely reaching conventional seasonal plateaus — a .300 batting common (six instances), 20 homers (9 instances), 30 steals (six instances), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight instances apiece) — he was ridiculously underappreciated by the mainstream, making simply two All-Star groups and profitable one Gold Glove. He barely scraped by in his 2020 poll debut with 5.5%, however broke into double digits for the primary time in ’23 (15.4%), then stagnated in ’24.

The opposite choice is a pitcher whom I included final 12 months for the primary time, in his sixth 12 months of eligibility:

Andy Pettitte (81st amongst beginning pitchers in S-JAWS, 13.5% in 2024)

Although he solely made three All-Star groups and by no means completed greater than second within the Cy Younger voting, Pettitte was a rotation mainstay on 5 championship groups, eight that reached the World Sequence, and 14 that reached the playoffs. His postseason totals of 44 begins, 19 wins, and 276.2 innings are all information, thanks partly to the expanded format, and his 3.81 postseason ERA is a ringer for his 3.85 common season mark, which equates to a 117 ERA+, which is forward of twenty-two enshrined starters and tied with two others. His postseason résumé offers some separation between him and the in any other case related Buehrle, pitchers whose S-JAWS falls within the twenty seventh and twenty eighth percentiles relative to these already enshrined.

I tabbed Pettitte final 12 months to spherical out my poll at 10, a nod to the notion of constant the dialogue of beginning pitching requirements, and of grappling with the quantity of postseason knowledge for Twenty first century gamers (Sam Miller has written some thought-provoking stuff on this).

In the long run, having already made one attain past my common analytical vary within the pitching division (Félix), I made a decision to not make a second; Pettitte misses my lower this 12 months. He’s already clinched a berth on subsequent 12 months’s poll based mostly on the votes within the Tracker, whereas Abreu has not. I’ll proceed to think about Pettitte and the burden of his postseason work for future ballots.

Once more, one other imperfect poll within the books and the mailbox:

As soon as once more, I’m gratified that after protecting baseball and analyzing Corridor of Fame elections for thus lengthy on the skin, I get to solid a poll. It’s nonetheless only one vote from amongst practically 400, much less impactful than my work to sway precise voters and assist the likes of Raines, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Walker, Rolen and others discover properties in Cooperstown, however it’s additionally symbolic.

I say this yearly however it bears repeating: I’m standing on the shoulders of giants within the area of baseball evaluation, individuals who entered this business with out going by conventional newspaper shops and who both had been by no means admitted into the BBWAA or didn’t final lengthy sufficient inside it to vote. I’d desire a voting course of that discovered room for them and for different consultants from past the mainstream, however as long as it doesn’t, I’ll do my finest to characterize.