Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline for an extension — the primary full day of spring coaching — got here and went greater than a month in the past, with no deal coming to fruition. Guerrero has left the door barely cracked, indicating that whereas he doesn’t plan to barter any additional, he’d be amenable to listening to the Jays out in the event that they offered a brand new provide. That mindset is all of the extra notable now, on condition that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro flatly acknowledged this morning that he expects to ultimately conform to an extension with the group’s star first baseman (by way of Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Stated Shapiro:
“…I assume my overarching feeling is considered one of optimism. I feel we’re going to signal him. I feel we’re going to increase him. The rationale I really feel that method is as a result of now we have such a transparent alignment on the specified final result. Vlad needs to play his entire profession as a Toronto Blue Jay. We would like him to finish his profession in a Blue Jays uniform to be a real legacy participant for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could possibly be earlier than free company, may very well be throughout free company, however I’m optimistic we’ll signal him.”
Guerrero himself reacted to Shapiro’s feedback, per Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: “I’ve at all times felt good about the entire thing. I’m good with that. Simply going to maintain working very onerous and be optimistic, too. Not going to close the door on them… I’ll be open. However I’m going to depart that to my brokers to work with that. If there’s one thing there, they’re going to proceed to work with that. I’m simply going to be on the sector, specializing in my teammates, on my group, on my recreation.”
Particulars surrounding each Guerrero’s asking worth and the Blue Jays’ most up-to-date provide have trickled out within the weeks since his deadline handed. Guerrero himself made clear he wasn’t searching for something near Juan Soto’s $765MM assure with the Mets; he sought below $600MM in assured cash over a 14- or 15-year deal. Subsequent reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Publish, and Davidi shed additional mild on negotiations. Guerrero reportedly sought a net-present worth of $500MM, and whereas the Jays are mentioned to have provided a determine near $500MM, deferred cash pushed the present-day worth down nearer to $450MM.
Although that paints a broad image of the place issues stand, Shapiro cautioned right now (with out citing particularly reported numbers) that the hole isn’t fairly as simple because the ostensible $50MM separating the reported provide and asking worth. “That’s an oversimplification based mostly upon solely a part of the knowledge,” Shapiro mentioned (by way of MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).
Shapiro’s candor and optimistic tone on ultimately hammering out a long-term deal come not lengthy after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports activities reported that the Jays are making ready a brand new provide for Guerrero. Whereas it’s nonetheless not clear whether or not a brand new provide will probably be made previous to Opening Day, Shapiro’s feedback do lend some credence to the concept that a brand new proposal may very well be forthcoming earlier than lengthy.
Even supposing he simply turned 26 this previous Sunday, Guerrero is getting into his remaining season of membership management. He’ll earn $28.5MM in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He’ll be a yr older than Soto was when Soto hit the market, however Guerrero is however poised to achieve free company with a uncommon mix of youth and premium offensive observe document.
Though the primary two seasons of Guerrero’s profession — his age-20 and age-21 efforts — have been “solely” a bit above common, he broke out with an MVP-caliber efficiency in 2021. His 2022-23 manufacturing was very robust however not fairly as much as that 2021 commonplace. He bounced again to elite ranges in 2024. Total, since that 2021 breakout, Guerrero has turned in a monstrous .293/.370/.517 batting line with 136 house runs in 2783 plate appearances — about 45% higher than league common, by measure of wRC+.
Guerrero delivered practically unequalled batted-ball and bat pace grades final yr whereas delivering a career-low 13.8% strikeout fee towards a ten.3% stroll fee that sits because the second-highest mark of his massive league tenure. Per Statcast, he ranked in at the very least the 91st percentile of MLB hitters in barrel fee (91st percentile), bat pace (ninety fifth), hard-hit fee (97th), common exit velocity (98th), anticipated slugging share (98th) and anticipated wOBA (98th). No hitter in MLB had the next most exit velocity or anticipated batting common.
Guerrero has additionally been extraordinarily sturdy, trailing solely Marcus Semien in complete plate appearances since 2021. In that very same span, he’s tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most homers in MLB and likewise sits sixth with 405 runs pushed in. Guerrero ranks tenth in batting common, eleventh in on-base share and thirteenth in slugging share over the previous 4 years. Protection and baserunning are apparent strikes towards him, however Guerrero has been considered one of MLB’s ten finest hitters within the mixture since Opening Day 2021 — together with two seasons the place he’s been flat-out elite.
Primarily based on Guerrero’s premium bat-to-ball abilities, bat pace and batted-ball metrics, there’s little motive to count on him to markedly decline within the close to future. As with every mega-deal, the latter half of the contract is more likely to be painful, however that’s typically accepted as the price of doing enterprise when signing star-caliber gamers of this nature within the coronary heart of their prime.
