Typically talking, late Saturday night time is just not the time for rational choices. Late Saturday night time is when individuals make the varieties of choices that they received’t even keep in mind till midway via their eggs on Sunday and whose logic they’ll battle to puzzle out for years to come back. However simply earlier than midnight on Saturday, Jeff Passan revealed that the Nationals and the Mets made a superbly affordable swap. The Mets, presently half a recreation forward of the Diamondbacks for the ultimate NL Wild Card spot, bolstered their outfield and added a much-needed left-handed bat by sending 24-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Stuart to the Nationals in trade for half a season of the resurgent Jesse Winker. After placing up a dreadful -0.8 WAR in an injury-shortened 2023 marketing campaign, Winker is operating a 126 wRC+ and has put up 1.3 WAR, fourth-best amongst Washington’s place gamers. Winker additionally spent his early childhood in upstate New York and has been vocal about his appreciation for Mets followers.
Winker obtained into Sunday’s recreation together with his new group, coming into as a alternative and enjoying left area, although his final vacation spot is perhaps in proper. Winker hasn’t performed greater than 100 innings in proper area since 2019, however with Starling Marte out since June 22 attributable to a knee damage, that looks as if probably the most logical match. The Mets are presently platooning Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor on the market. In opposition to righties, Winker might enable McNeil to maneuver second base, pushing Jose Iglesias, who began out red-hot however has only one hit over his previous six video games, again right into a bench position.
At his greatest, in the course of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Winker mixed an especially affected person strategy with wonderful contact high quality. He nonetheless runs one of many lowest chase charges within the recreation, however his contact high quality plummeted in 2022 and particularly in 2023, when again and neck accidents restricted him to simply 61 video games with the Brewers. His exit velocity and hard-hit fee have bounced again some this season. They’re not fairly at league common, however mixed together with his preternatural plate self-discipline, they’ll work. Winker additionally obtained sizzling on the good time. He has a 150 wRC+ since June 14, which marks one of many hottest stretches of his complete profession, and by far one of the best since 2021:
The 30-year-old Winker has battled accidents, again accidents particularly, for a lot of his profession. His improved play might merely be a results of being wholesome for the primary time in a very long time. Nevertheless, there are some apparent caveats right here. It’s vital to notice that Winker is operating a .318 BABIP, which can also be his greatest mark since 2021. His improved contact high quality however, there’s no actual cause to count on that to proceed. Second, Winker is benefiting from seeing much more hittable pitches this season. His 53.2% zone fee isn’t just the best of his profession (other than his a partial rookie season in 2017), however the fifth-highest amongst all certified gamers this season. His 8.6% meatball fee additionally ranks twelfth amongst qualifiers. Listed below are the pitches Winker noticed final yr and this yr:
Final yr, pitchers stayed away from him with breaking pitches and offspeed stuff. This yr, they’re throwing much more fastballs proper over the plate.
Winker has at all times been probably the most selective gamers in baseball. His 18.9% chase fee ranks within the 96th percentile and is only a hair above his profession common. The distinction is that this season, his swing fee on pitches within the zone has fallen to 62.7%, the bottom of his profession. It’s not as if he’s being choosier and ready for the right pitch. His swing fee on pitches over the guts of the plate can also be at a profession low:
Consequently, SEAGER, which measures selective aggression, doesn’t love him prefer it used to, rating him within the forty seventh percentile after three straight seasons within the mid-80s. It’s exhausting to say whether or not Winker will maintain seeing so many hittable pitches. This might simply be a small pattern measurement fluke, however perhaps pitchers aren’t terrified of him like they was once, or perhaps they’re simply sick of strolling him. Winker might be due for a little bit of regression within the second half, however he may additionally be capable of sit in opposition to lefties a bit extra typically in New York. Moreover, he doesn’t must maintain operating a 126 wRC+ to be helpful to the Mets in the course of the stretch run.
Now for Washington’s facet of the deal. As a result of I need to spare you ache, I’m not going to make you learn a listing of all of the gamers the Nationals have traded away over the past 4 seasons. I received’t even make you learn a listing of the bounce-back candidates they’ve signed to one-year offers for the categorical objective of flipping them on the deadline. However that is what they do. They pump, they dump, they repeat. It’s their technique. This yr, it labored with Winker and appears to be working with Dylan Floro, however not with Joey Gallo or Nick Senzel. The true query is whether or not this is perhaps the technique’s final hurrah. The Nationals are on tempo for his or her greatest file since 2019, and, due to the implosion of the Marlins, their first non-last-place end. Administration has been making noises for 2 years now about how shut the group is to ending its rebuild. We’ll discover out in just a few extra months whether or not all which means they’ll lastly signal a participant they’d really prefer to maintain round for greater than 4 months.
As a 6-foot-9 right-hander with one of many thickest necks in skilled baseball however with out nice fastball form, Tyler Stuart was destined to finish up with the Nationals. The Mets chosen Stuart within the sixth spherical of the 2022 draft out of Southern Mississippi. A transformed reliever, he earned a promotion to Double-A final season. In accordance with MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato, Stuart’s mixed 2.20 ERA led all certified pitchers within the minors. Up to now this season, he’s operating a 3.96 ERA and three.28 FIP.
Eric Longenhagen ranked Stuart twenty seventh (as a 35+ FV) within the Mets system again in Could, and he appears prone to be a back-end starter. Stuart doesn’t have nice velocity or stuff, however he fills up the zone, and is presently strolling 5.6% of batters and operating a 47.5% groundball fee; per Eric, his sturdiness and command give him a excessive flooring. As Eric wrote in Could, “He’s largely going to dwell within the low 90s with each a two- and four-seamer whereas commanding a mean slider to his glove facet.” Stuart remains to be engaged on creating an honest offspeed pitch, and his future appears to be dependent upon whether or not or not he can crack it. If he can’t determine it out, he’s extra prone to find yourself as a fastball-slider reliever.
