Josh Smith Is Cutting Through the Heart and Breaking Out

A good friend of mine is a large Cleveland Guardians fan, and the opposite evening we have been discussing the awards possibilities for a few of their high gamers. He pitched Emmanuel Clase as a Cy Younger candidate — which, facet observe: Have you ever seen his ERA and Cleveland’s file when main after eight innings this yr? — however I used to be extra all for the place José Ramírez and Steven Kwan would possibly end within the MVP race. I pulled up our leaderboards to see the place they stood and was greeted with a shock that had nothing to do with the Guards:

Huh? Josh Smith? The identical Josh Smith who batted beneath the Mendoza Line in every of his first two main league seasons? The one who didn’t get a single postseason plate look final yr? The one who barely made the Opening Day roster this season? In some way, sure.

By the primary half of the 2024 marketing campaign, that Josh Smith has been the most efficient hitter in a loaded Texas Rangers lineup. In fact, that doesn’t fairly seize how nice the 26-year-old has been this season — in spite of everything, that loaded lineup is harm and underperforming — however you would shave 25 factors off his wRC+ and he’d nonetheless be their greatest hitter. Luckily, the Yankees included Smith of their 2021 commerce for Joey Gallo, so no shaving is required.

Extra to the purpose, Smith isn’t simply glorious relative to the Rangers’ band of bangless bangers. Moderately, his standing as an awesome hitter this season is indeniable. Right here’s the place Smith ranks amongst certified American League batters:

So what’s behind Smith’s surge? The obvious factor to level to is his stance. Based on Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning Information, Smith modified his setup and cargo over the offseason whereas understanding at Texas’ Globe Life Area with Seth Conner, the crew’s assistant hitting coach. Smith stands extra slim now than he did final yr, and he has gone to a “stacked” load — that means he retains his head stacked over the middle of his physique by his swing to the purpose of contact. The aim of those changes was to chop down on strikeouts and fly balls, hit extra line drives, and get again to the contact-oriented method that made him a Prime 100 prospect just a few years in the past.

“I made a decision to alter it as a result of I used to be hitting like a buck fifty,” Smith instructed McFarland in April. “That was sort of annoying, so I made a decision to make some modifications.”

His precise batting common final yr (.185) wasn’t fairly that unhealthy, however regardless, if you wish to hike up your common, hanging out much less and hitting extra line drives is an effective place to begin.

Halfway by this season, Smith’s modifications have labored as supposed. His strikeout price has dropped from 23.7% final yr to 19.2% this yr, and his 34.9% fly ball price is down from final yr’s 40.4%. In the meantime, he’s elevated his line drive price by 10.4 share factors (25.3%, up from 14.9%). That’s the largest soar among the many 188 gamers who recorded at the very least 200 plate appearances in each 2023 and ’24:

Smith has stated that in his first two seasons, he acquired caught up within the push for energy. He was chasing fly balls as a result of he thought that was the best way to stay within the massive leagues. In some methods, he achieved what he was going for final yr: He dramatically elevated his barrel price (10.5%, up from 2.4% in 2022) and his common exit velocity (88.5 mph, up from 87.0). And final yr was an enchancment on the plate from his woeful rookie marketing campaign, however that’s like saying the 1963 Mets have been higher than the ’62 Mets — they have been higher, however solely as a result of they couldn’t get any worse:

Throughout the offseason, within the afterglow of successful the World Collection, Smith concluded that he wasn’t going to chop it as a slugger. At 5-foot-10 and 172 kilos, he couldn’t generate sufficient energy to make his 2023 method worthwhile. So he began understanding with Conner and the early returns have been promising, as Smith had a very good spring coaching (154 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances). He made the Opening Day roster primarily due to his positional versatility, however he was a backup and enjoying time wasn’t assured.

That’s, till third baseman Josh Jung broke his wrist within the fourth sport of the season, requiring surgical procedure. Smith changed him because the robust facet of a platoon however rapidly hit his means into the on a regular basis lineup. Starting together with his first begin on April 2 by the top of that month, Smith hit .321/.415/.506 throughout 94 plate appearances, good for a 163 wRC+. He hasn’t appeared again since, climbing up the batting order and settling into the no. 3 gap. Even with Jung nearing his return to the lineup, supervisor Bruce Bochy has stated Smith has earned a beginning function, although the place he performs within the discipline will depend upon the day.

Narrowing his stance and stacking his load have helped Smith get into a greater place to hit, however being in a very good place to hit and truly doing it are two various things. That brings us to the driving pressure behind Smith’s success: He’s making significantly better swing choices.

Impressed by teammate Corey Seager, Smith has began searching pitches over the center of the plate. Sounds apparent, proper? Swing on the most hittable pitches. Duh! However that’s simpler stated than carried out whenever you’re within the field and making an attempt to gear up for 100-mph heaters whereas additionally worrying about nasty breaking pitches. In Seager, Smith noticed the advantages of a selectively aggressive method and realized he’d been overthinking issues within the field.

Now he’s stripped hitting all the way down to its most elementary parts to such a level that I’m cringing whereas typing this as a result of it feels like I went to the Crash Davis College of Baseball Clichés: Swing at good pitches, don’t attempt to do an excessive amount of, hit line drives. However this actually is what Smith is doing. Test this out:

Smith has been particularly nice at searching first pitches within the Coronary heart Zone:

This season, nestled within the lineup between Seager and Adolis García most video games, Smith is seeing first pitches within the Coronary heart Zone at a a lot larger price, and when he does, he’s hacking at and ripping them.

There are some questions in regards to the sustainability of Smith’s breakout. He’s drastically outperforming his anticipated stats (.244 xBA, .350 xSLG, .314 xwOBA), and it appears unlikely that pitchers will hold grooving him this many pitches. However, even when a regression is coming, it’s exhausting to picture that Smith will likely be as unhealthy as he was in his first two seasons. Together with his new setup and method, his basis as a line drive hitter ought to assist him restrict his slumps and produce as a stable lineup contributor, if not the stunning offensive pressure he’s been this season.