Kyle Finnegan Is Back in Washington

The 2024 season was a giant one for Kyle Finnegan, or at the very least it began that manner. On the energy of a 2.45 ERA and 25 saves, the Nationals’ nearer made his first All-Star group (he completed the yr with 38 saves, good for second within the Nationwide League). But he struggled within the second half, and in November, the Nationals non-tendered him slightly than threat a visit by way of arbitration. On Tuesday — the identical day I highlighted his continued free company inside this roundup — he returned to the fold nonetheless on a one-year, $6 million contract.

The deal, which is pending a bodily and a 40-man roster transfer at this writing, is just not but official. On condition that Finnegan made $5.1 million final yr, the brand new contract constitutes about an 18% increase for the 33-year-old righty. Nonetheless, in his annual projections for arbitration-eligible gamers at MLB Commerce Rumors, Matt Swartz estimated that Finnegan would land a wage of $8.6 million, simply shy of a 69% increase, as a result of saves play properly in arbitration. The view that Finnegan acquired one thing of a uncooked deal by this course of is offset by the truth that he did get to check free company a yr forward of schedule, solely to search out the marketplace for his companies restricted sufficient to make a return his most suitable choice. Among the many different 29 groups, the Cubs appeared to indicate essentially the most curiosity.

Earlier this month, Nationals normal supervisor Mike Rizzo advised reporters that the group had saved in contact with Finnegan “all through the offseason.” He seemingly lingered in the marketplace as a result of his profile and his efficiency each have some notable dings. Conceptually, Finnegan is principally a two-pitch pitcher, with a four-seam fastball that averaged 97.2 mph in 2024, and a splitter that has changed his slider as his essential secondary pitch over the previous couple of seasons. By the pitch fashions, the fastball is about common, whereas the splitter is above-average however in need of being a real plus pitch. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and whereas he generates a wholesome share of groundballs, he provides up a number of exhausting contact.

Although Finnegan positioned seventh within the NL with 28 saves in 2023 and has racked up 88 saves over the previous 4 seasons, his observe file is unremarkable. Of the 27 pitchers with at the very least 50 saves for the reason that begin of 2021, he owns the fourth-highest ERA (3.62), the second-highest FIP (4.28), the second-highest residence run price (1.29 per 9), and the second-lowest strikeout price (23.3%) whereas being in a digital tie with Will Smith for the bottom WAR (1.0). He’s acquired the fourth-lowest bWAR in that span as properly (2.4).

Finnegan’s 2024 first-half efficiency wasn’t fairly as robust because it regarded, but it surely was a complete lot higher than his second-half efficiency:

Yikes. Finnegan’s strikeout price fell by practically 10 factors after the break, whereas his stroll price crept upward. Each his chase price and his total swinging strike price declined notably, and in accordance with the pitch modeling techniques, his command regressed by roughly one full commonplace deviation. Per PitchingBot, his command graded as 62 on the 20–80 scouting scale within the first half however fell to 52 within the second, whereas his total rating fell from 59 to 52. Per Stuff+, his Location+ and Pitching+ scores each fell from 108 to 99.

With that compromised command, Finnegan was hit tougher:

Like so many excessive splits, the precise variations are wider than the anticipated ones; Finnegan’s xSLG within the second half was really decrease than within the first, however batters nonetheless elevated their SLG by 145 factors. The general numbers inform a narrative that’s worrisome sufficient: Finnegan’s common exit velocity ranked within the first percentile, and his hard-hit price within the second. Thankfully, he prevented the barrel usually sufficient to position within the sixty fifth percentile in that class.

A more in-depth take a look at Finnegan’s pitch splits reveals that batters really did much less harm towards his splitter within the second half than the primary; their SLG towards it fell from .432 to .320 whilst his whiff price dropped from 33.7% to 23.3%. The actual downside was that his four-seamer was pummeled with rising depth, with the SLG towards it rising from .310 within the first half to .585 within the second. And since he was throwing the heater greater than twice as usually because the splitter… it wasn’t fairly.

Additionally not fairly: Finnegan — who’s already one of many majors’ slowest-working pitchers — led the majors with 11 pitch clock violations, three greater than another pitcher. Our estimates place the worth of these 11 additional balls at a meager -0.6 runs, however as Baseball Prospectus‘ Patrick Dubuque identified, he did make a doubtful little bit of historical past on June 22 towards the Rockies, ready too lengthy to ship a 3-2 pitch to Ryan McMahon with the bases loaded and the rating tied within the backside of the ninth, thus producing the primary walk-off pitch clock violation in main league historical past. The place’s the Topps Now card for that one?

The entire above helps to clarify why Finnegan didn’t land a bigger deal. But the Nats did assume sufficient of him to carry him again at the next wage than final yr, as a result of even awful groups — they’re projected for 72.6 wins, the NL’s third-lowest complete forward of solely the Rockies and Marlins — want closers. With out Finnegan, the group entered camp with lefty Jose A. Ferrer and righty Jorge López the highest candidates to shut; now they and righty Derek Legislation might be within the setup combine.

One factor value questioning is why Finnegan didn’t use his slider extra usually final yr. He threw it 5.6% of the time (9.9% towards righties, however only one random pitch to lefties). Inside that restricted pattern, PitchingBot scored it as common (50) however Stuff+ actually appreciated it (124). Batters hit and slugged simply .133 towards it whereas whiffing one-third of the time. These outcomes had been significantly better than what he’d gotten out of his slider earlier than as a result of, properly, it was a unique pitch, about 4 ticks slower than the one he threw in 2023 (85.4 mph vs. 89.5 mph) and with totally different motion. From a David Laurila piece final Might:

Finnegan used to throw a “tighter, tougher, cutter-slider,” however because it was basically the identical velocity as his splitter, some separation was so as. He didn’t get the horizontal break he was in search of together with his new slider, however contemplating that it’s the least used of his three pitches – solely 5.2% each this yr and final – he concluded that no matter further motion he may get can be sufficient.

“I got down to throw a sweeper, however I couldn’t fairly get sufficient horizontal to the place it will be categorized a sweeper,” defined Finnegan. “However actually, I believe they’re all sliders; some simply go extra left than others. I type of settled someplace within the center. The sweeper I used to be attempting to throw was about 80 [mph], and the slider I in the end switched to is round 85. It nonetheless strikes extra left than than my older slider, and I get a bit little bit of depth on it as properly.”

On condition that Finnegan will hit free company this fall, there’s an excellent probability the primary half of his season might be an audition for a late-July commerce to a contender. He would possibly change into a extra fascinating commerce candidate — and a greater pitcher, which is the actual level — by including a brand new pitch or refining his present ones, and heaven is aware of, dashing issues up in order to keep away from these pitch clock violalations couldn’t harm. Having obtained the combined message from the Nationals by way of this sequence of transactions, it’s on him to spice up his recreation.