Travis Ice and I’ve begun early work on the Los Angeles Angels and Sacramento Athletics prospect lists, and since each franchises’ prospects are on the Mesa Photo voltaic Sox roster, I spent most of final week seeing no matter sport they have been enjoying.
At this level within the Fall League, the leaders in video games performed have laced up their spikes solely eight or 9 instances. Something you’ve examine this yr’s AFL thus far has encompassed simply two weeks of part-time play for any given participant. Bear in mind it is a hitter-friendly league for a lot of each developmental and environmental causes, and that triple slash strains on this league are usually not a dependable proxy for expertise.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Offensive requirements at first base are fairly excessive, and despite the fact that the collective efficiency of this yr’s group was down relative to latest norms (by sort of lots), it’s nonetheless a place from which we count on good gamers and prospects to supply affect energy. Morgan has been a related prospect since highschool, however a relative lack of energy has tended to cap his projection into extra of a part-time first base/outfield function.
Throughout the 2024 common season it seemed like Morgan was extra typically taking max-effort swings and promoting out for energy. He reached Double-A and slugged .483 throughout three ranges, however his middling uncooked power and opposite-field tendency as a hitter (plus elevated chase charges relative to his profession norms) instructed this was perhaps not one of the best strategy for him. Within the Fall League, Morgan has been extra balanced, actually taking huge hacks solely in favorable counts. He’s nonetheless stinging the ball in a approach that signifies he’ll be a doubles machine, and he appears much less susceptible to fastballs up and away than he did through the summer season. We don’t have a approach of actually understanding how Morgan will deal with elevated massive league fastballs till he faces them, however a extra balanced, contact-oriented fashion of hitting goes to provide him a significantly better likelihood of protecting the highest of the zone and being a extra full hitter. (An apart: Watch A’s prospect Denzel Clarke go first-to-third on the video’s 1:55 mark.)
I feel absolutely the ceiling for his manufacturing appears to be like one thing like Brandon Belt’s or Daniel Murphy’s pre-Juiced Ball period statline. Extra seemingly Morgan’s output will look one thing like Ji Man Choi’s or LaMonte Wade Jr.’s. Morgan is just not a man who’s going to hit 20 homers per yr, however a heady, well-rounded offensive skillset coupled along with his glorious, profile-seasoning first base protection make him higher than the 40 FV grade participant I evaluated him as through the yr. He’s making a case to be elevated into the again of this offseason’s Prime 100 checklist.
Caleb Durbin, UTIL, New York Yankees
I gave Durbin quick shrift final yr even after his .353/.456/.588 line within the 2023 Fall League. He had a great 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, together with a robust second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is brief — actually quick, he’s 5-foot-6 — however he’s not small; he’s constructed like a bit of tank. His compact, stocky construct helps maintain his swing quick and persistently on time to drag the baseball. His high quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a man who slugs beneath .400 on the massive league stage, however he was coping with an harm that usually impacts contact high quality for some time after restoration.
Maybe most significantly, Durbin appears to be like wonderful at each second and third base and has additionally been enjoying everywhere in the outfield. Defensive versatility may be his key to being rostered persistently. Durbin ran a jailbreak 4.10 for me final week, however his home-to-first instances have been near 4.4 seconds on regular swings. That’s not blazing and slower than what’s typical of a good heart fielder, however any sort of outfield viability would assist the previous Division-III standout develop into an unbelievable massive leaguer. Durbin has performed sparingly in heart subject throughout his profession, and it’s going to be very tough to guage him there this Fall League except he begins getting reps there daily, which I feel is unlikely. It’s extra of a factor to observe become subsequent spring.
Kemp Alderman, OF, Miami Marlins
Alderman, a 2023 second spherical pick of Ole Miss who had a few of the finest exit velocities in that draft class, is at present main the AFL with six dwelling runs. He hit one on Friday at a whopping 119.5 mph. It went out on a line, ricocheting off the facet of the batter’s eye, which you’ll be able to see on this body:
Friday, Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman hit a homer that left Salt River Fields in an actual hurry, at 119.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/HBvj2F0oud
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 22, 2024
Like Durbin, Alderman missed time in 2024 with a damaged hand. It’s good to see Alderman hitting with elite peak energy coming off of this specific harm, however I’d advise everybody to pump the breaks on his total prospectdom at the moment. He masses his arms so deep, excessive, and late that I fear he’ll wrestle in opposition to higher velocity as he climbs the minors. Although Alderman’s regular-season strikeout charges don’t increase alarm, I don’t assume 30-ish video games at every A-ball stage is a significant pattern, particularly for a draft pick of an SEC faculty. It’s wonderful to be hopeful that I’m incorrect or that Alderman will make crucial changes as soon as higher stuff begins beating him, and he clearly has the facility to clear the offensive bar at a nook outfield spot. However despite the fact that he’s raking out right here, he doesn’t have an opinion-altering look. I do know Marlins followers have gone by way of this lots recently, the place they’ve a minor leaguer with elite energy however an inadequate hit device to profile (Peyton Burdick, Griffin Conine, Jerar Encarnacion), and I fear Alderman is one other of this ilk.
Devin Kirby, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Alert Ben Lindbergh, we’ve got a knuckler. The 25-year-old Kirby was an undrafted free agent out of UConn in 2023 and spent most of 2024 in Fort Myers both on the Advanced or FSL roster. His knuckleball must be extra constant for him to be thought of a prospect in any respect, however for now it’s plenty of enjoyable to observe a man whose major pitch is his knuckler.
The Arizona Fall League has a knuckleballer this yr, Twins righty Devin Kirby. pic.twitter.com/Z6c7ik6vH4
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 18, 2024
Board Additions
Ryan Birchard, RHP, Milwaukee BrewersHenry Bolte, OF, Oakland Athletics
These gamers have had their scouting reviews added to the Fall League tab on The Board. Head over there to take a look at their device grades and scouting reviews.
