Buffalo Payments: Sean McDermott, head coach
The Payments offense is a machine, with Josh Allen enjoying the perfect all-around ball of his profession. However the Payments will solely go as deep as McDermott, their head coach and defensive architect, can take them.
Who is aware of what occurred to McDermott? Possibly it was an ayahuasca journey, remedy, or the after-effects of the 13-second defeat to the Chiefs within the 2021 AFC title sport. However he has overhauled his complete strategy during the last couple of years. From the chief of a reasonably passive, predictable (but wonderful) protection, he has turned the Payments right into a slick, attacking group. They roll at as many wonky disguises as any group within the league. Much more importantly, he has change into an aggressive head coach in attacking fourth downs, permitting the ball to be positioned within the arms of Allen in must-have-it conditions relatively than being conservative.
Then again, Buffalo’s pass-rush has dwindled this season. They mustered solely 9 pressures towards a flaky Baltimore Ravens offensive line final week. Throughout the season, they notched only a 30% stress charge with 4 pass-rushers, placing them twenty fourth within the NFL. Profitable with 4 rushers is essential to deep postseason success, and the Payments’ four-down-and-go group has collapsed this 12 months; their stress and sack charges completed within the backside third of the league within the common season, and had been falling additional away as they entered the playoffs. How McDermott schemes up stress with out his go-to pass-rushers profitable one-on-one will probably be key to giving his group a shot to win all of it.
Nonetheless, it’s how he’ll handle video games that can have the largest impression. McDermott has change into an aggressive situational play-caller after years of submarining his facet with conservative calls in shut video games. He has gone for it on fourth downs this season greater than at any level in his profession. By lastly realizing that the trail to the promised land is placing the ball within the arms of his good quarterback, McDermott has given his group the largest fourth-down fringe of any coach within the league.
That modified within the divisional spherical, although. With a shot to place the Ravens away, McDermott turtled up. With the Payments up by 5 factors late within the fourth quarter, he opted to kick a area aim on fourth-and-two relatively than giving Allen an opportunity to shut out the sport. That call allowed the Ravens to march down the sphere to doubtlessly tie the sport. If not for a Mark Andrews drop on a two-point conversion, it might have gone to extra time.
It was a warning signal. Returning to Arrowhead Stadium will conjure recollections of McDermott and Buffalo’s lowest level. Will McDermott stick with what he has preached all season, or did the divisional spherical foreshadow that the coach has misplaced his nerve in essentially the most decisive video games?
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback
It nearly at all times comes all the way down to Mahomes. However this season, greater than even final 12 months, the Chiefs will go so far as their quarterback can drag them.
The Chiefs’ offense has been a chore this 12 months, due largely to a ropey offensive line. The group’s protection stays able to protecting matchups shut, however towards a bulldozing Payments offense, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense must match the AFC’s finest point-for-point.
So it’s over to Mahomes, in a down 12 months, to determine issues out (maybe with a serving to hand from officers). The Chiefs have struggled all season with their two sort out spots. Mahomes has been pressured at a career-high charge, limiting how a lot the Chiefs can assault down the sphere. In the direction of the tip of the common season, KC moved All-Professional guard Joe Thuney to left sort out to solidify issues. However it hasn’t labored. In 13 video games as a left guard, Thuney coughed up a measly 2.1 stress charge. He conceded simply 12 whole pressures, pitching a shutout in seven video games. At guard, he didn’t concede a single sack. However in 4 begins at left sort out, Thuney has struggled. His stress charge has ballooned to 14.8% and he has surrendered 19 pressures, together with a pair of sacks.
That knock-on impression has been dramatic, too. Shifting Thuney exterior has damaged up the perfect inside offensive line within the league, which a minimum of gave Mahomes some certainty about the place his pocket would collapse throughout the common season. With backup Mike Caliendo plugged into Thuney’s outdated spot, All-Professional middle Creed Humphrey has been pressured to assist out to his left extra, exposing proper guard Trey Smith in one-on-one conditions. With the road struggling, there isn’t a margin for error for Mahomes and his offense.
A few of these passing sport considerations will be offset by a robust rush assault. And the Payments wouldn’t have the strongest pass-rush. However even when the Chiefs can sneak by Buffalo, Mahomes will probably be beneath siege towards whichever facet comes out of the NFC. If the Chiefs are to win an unprecedented three Tremendous Bowls in a row, it is going to be over to Mahomes, once more, to make circus-level throws beneath fireplace.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, quarterback
Daniels has walked into the playoffs as the most effective gamers within the league, an nearly unfathomable normal for a rookie quarterback. All the things he does occurs at warp pace, from making choices, to getting the ball out on time, to taking off and working within the open area.
There aren’t any straightforward options for a protection. Daniels doesn’t flip the ball over. At this stage, he has seen each protection and cracked it. He has seen each strategy – and cracked that too. The Detroit Lions, like many different groups earlier than them, tried to unnerve Daniels within the divisional spherical by lighting him up with the blitz, hoping to bait the rookie into panicked choices. However Daniels is unflappable. In opposition to the Lions, Daniels completed 13-of-15 for 200 yards and a landing towards the blitz, averaging a gaudy 13 yards per try.
Making an attempt to blitz him is off the menu. The opposite various is to sag as many defenders into protection as doable, forcing Daniels to hold within the pocket, and hope he misreads the mass of our bodies down the sphere. Dropping eight defenders (relatively than the normal seven or six) into protection has been a well-liked technique to attempt to decelerate dual-threat quarterbacks. The issue: Daniels was the No 1 quarterback within the NFL towards so-called drop-eight protection this season … as a rookie! Gulp.
The lack of key guard Sam Cosmi might compromise the Commanders’ offense the remainder of the best way. And with Philadelphia’s ferocious pass-rush, Daniels will most likely be beneath extra stress than he has seen for a lot of this season. However even when he’s, Daniels has proven he’s unfazed by stress, be it defenders in his space code or the magnitude of the second.
Washington’s protection is spiky. However Daniels is the explanation they’ve made it to the NFC title sport. In the event that they win all of it, it is going to be as a result of Daniels is particular.
Philadelphia Eagles: Defensive entrance
The Eagles have essentially the most imposing defensive entrance left within the playoff area. They stonewall opposing run video games and their pass-rush is springy, bodily and deep. Defensive sort out Jalen Carter has approached Aaron Donald ranges of dominance this season. Edge defender Nolan Smith has come on-line simply in time for the championship push. However it goes past the 2 star names. With Carter, Smith, Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Bryce Huff, Jalyx Hunt and Jordan Davis, Philly’s line runs seven deep. Nobody else can convey that high quality or depth to the occasion. Behind them is linebacker Zach Baun, essentially the most helpful defensive piece left within the postseason. Baun permits the Eagles to sport matchups alongside the road of scrimmage in contrast to anybody else, and he’s a game-breaker in his personal proper.
On offense, the Eagles are constructed round their all-conquering dashing assault, because of an amazing offensive line and Saquon Barkley. A run-game-plus-defense components looks like one thing out of the 90s, however it’s the one recipe that can work for the Eagles.
Too typically, Philadelphia’s passing sport seems to be pedestrian. Jalen Hurts’ accuracy has eroded this season. Hurts stays a difference-maker as a runner, however he’s the least dependable of the 4 quarterbacks left within the playoffs. Preserving video games shut, earlier than permitting Barkley and the offensive line to take over late in video games, will probably be Philadelphia’s championship components.
To maintain issues shut, their defensive entrance should dominate the road of scrimmage. Thankfully for Philly, they’ve the items to beat up on anybody.
