The Mariners and outfielder Víctor Robles have agreed to a contract extension, studies Yancen Pujols on X. Jorge Castillo of ESPN confirms the report on X, including that it’s a two-year, $9.75MM deal that features a $9MM membership choice for 2027, in addition to $2MM in bonuses and escalators. Robles is represented by Republik Sports activities.
Daniel Kramer of MLB.com relayed the incentives on X. Robles will obtain $500K for 500 plate appearances and one other $500K for reaching 600 plate appearances in each 2025 and 2026. There’s additionally a $1.25MM signing bonus that’s a part of the $9.75MM assure.
The deal is an indication of what a outstanding turnaround it’s been for Robles up to now two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for project on the finish of Could. They reportedly then explored trades with different golf equipment however couldn’t discover any takers. Since Robles had sufficient service time to reject an outright project whereas protecting what remained of this yr’s $2.65MM wage, the Nats merely launched him.
The Mariners took a shot on him, which basically got here with no threat. The Nats have been nonetheless on the hook for many of his wage, leaving the Mariners to pay simply the prorated league minimal, with that quantity subtracted from what the Nats pay.
For that minimal funding, the Mariners have already been vastly rewarded. In 42 video games for Seattle, he has three house runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% higher than league common offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting common on balls in play is unquestionably on the excessive aspect however he’s solely hanging out at a 16.3% charge and that might be robust offense even with a little bit of regression.
That’s very true as a result of Robles is able to offering worth even when he doesn’t have the bat in his arms. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and supplied competent glovework within the outfield, taking part in all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been price 1.2 wins above alternative already in his temporary stint with the Mariners.
That has been particularly precious for a membership that has struggled to generate offense this yr. They’ve arguably the most effective pitching workers within the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops within the majors, however the lack of punch on the plate has stored them combating for his or her lives. They’re 63-56, successfully even with the Astros within the division however 2.5 video games again of a Wild Card spot.
Robles was an impending free agent however the Mariners have seen sufficient that they’re prepared to maintain him round for one more two and possibly three years. After all, they’re not simply making this resolution based mostly on the 42 video games he has performed since altering uniforms. Throughout his time with the Nats, he was as soon as thought of the most effective prospects within the sport. He was on Baseball America’s high 100 listing in 4 straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as excessive as fifth general in 2018.
He gave the impression to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, serving to the Nats win the World Sequence that yr. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit beneath par, translating to a 92 wRC+, however he was in a position to produce 3.7 fWAR because of his protection and pace. He stole 28 bases on the yr, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Common. On condition that he was solely 22 years previous on the time, it appeared truthful to count on that he was solely scratching the floor of the participant he was about to turn out to be.
Sadly, the alternative occurred, as his efficiency dropped considerably for the subsequent few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit simply .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend a while on the injured listing however that was a major pattern measurement of 965 plate appearances.
Regardless of these struggles, the Nats caught by him, regularly tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He gave the impression to be getting issues again on monitor final yr, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, however he was restricted to only 36 on the season again spasms within the lumbar backbone. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM wage for 2024, hoping that Robles might each keep wholesome and put his previous struggles behind him. However this yr obtained out to a shaky begin, as Robles missed a few month resulting from a left hamstring pressure and hit simply .120/.281/.120 in 14 video games for Washington earlier than they determined to chop him free.
The Mariners have been rewarded with the model of Robles that the Nats thought that they had many occasions up to now. The mixture of his previous prospect pedigree and his current efficiency clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can preserve producing for a couple of extra years. There’s clearly some threat there based mostly on how poorly he has carried out at occasions up to now, however they’re additionally not sticking their neck out with huge sums of cash.
The assure works out to lower than $5MM per yr, which pretty modest in baseball phrases. Even when Robles takes a step again on the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of assets. And if he can proceed to maintain hitting, then there’s loads of upside for the M’s.
For Robles, he’s maybe leaving a bit of cash on the desk right here, but it surely’s additionally comprehensible that he would need to lock in some important earnings. If he had continued to carry out at this degree for the remainder of the season, he probably would have earned a bigger assure than the one he’s agreeing to now. However as he certainly is aware of from the winding path of his profession, it’s not a assure that it’ll proceed to go so effectively. In spite of everything, it was simply two months in the past that each one the golf equipment within the league handed on the prospect to amass him whereas he’s making a reasonably modest wage. If Robles had suffered one other harm or just struggled on the plate down the stretch, he might not have been in a position to safe a assure of even this measurement.
He additionally nonetheless has future incomes energy that he might faucet into if he retains performing. Resulting from debuting at such a younger age, he’s nonetheless simply 27 years previous. This deal will cowl his age-28 and -29 seasons with the choice giving the M’s an opportunity to regulate him via his age-30 season. If he’s in a position to sustain his all-around efficiency via the course of this contract, he might line himself up for a extra sizable deal at that time. If the choice is triggered and he hits these escalators, he may have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.
The Mariners additionally get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They have already got Julio Rodríguez locked in for a few years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable through arbitration via 2026. Mitch Haniger has another yr on his deal after this and the membership additionally has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone within the combine, although Raley has been getting loads of taking part in time at first base these days. Justin Turner figures to be within the designated hitter spot so much for the remainder of this yr however is an impending free agent.
It’s arguably a crowded combine however president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is likely one of the recreation’s most lively resolution makers and will deal from this group within the offseason if the chance presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a participant who is probably breaking out, however with out breaking the financial institution. Robles, in the meantime, has secured himself a very nice bit of monetary safety that didn’t appear attainable just some brief weeks in the past.
Extra to come back.
