Right this moment’s mailbag will get into the Nationals’ offseason strategy, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do that yr, the Royals’ outfield, how small market groups can compete, the Yankees’ third base scenario, the Mets’ rotation, and extra.
Steve asks:
The Nationals have now spent over $50 million on this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you want their technique of constructing depth with upside gamers with decrease $ danger per participant to maintain the books clear for the approaching years?
OTOH, they might have gone all in and met Bregman’s rumored value of $210 million over 7 years, and had sufficient cash for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and including Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for his or her bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.
Which route do you want higher?
Simply to evaluate, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free company at a 2025 AAV value of $38.75MM. In addition they traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who’s incomes $10.3MM this yr.
Regardless of including $49MM in complete ’25 AAV, the staff’s CBT payroll is barely $138MM. The query is whether or not 2025 is/was the time for this staff to pounce. Proprietor Mark Lerner would not suppose so, primarily based on feedback made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Put up. Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here is what Lerner mentioned to Svrluga:
“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We actually want to consider it,’ for subsequent winter, we’ll speak about it,” Lerner mentioned. “Proper now, he doesn’t suppose — and I agree with him: There’s no level in getting a celebrity and paying him a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars} to win two or three extra video games. You’ve received to attend till — like Jayson. Jayson was proper on the cusp of [the team] being actually good, and it took us to the following stage. That’s the perfect scenario. It’s all the time on our thoughts.” He paused. “You possibly can get nauseous eager about it,” he mentioned, laughing.
Regardless of the additions, FanGraphs tasks the Nationals for under 73 wins this yr. And although – as I am going to present later within the mailbag – groups generally outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that also won’t be sufficient for a wild card.
The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base. Bregman alone would not make this staff a possible contender, and he turns 31 in March. I do not suppose he match because the staff’s Jayson Werth transfer. I doubt Nolan Arenado would’ve accepted a commerce to D.C., and he would not sense for this staff anyway.
The Nats nonetheless owe $40MM to Ruiz and have just a few catching prospects within the pipeline, so I can see why they did not do something there. Likewise, including an even bigger bat than Bell may imply 74 or 75 wins as an alternative of 73.
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