Are you able to consider it is Week 11 already? It feels just like the season simply received underway, but right here we’re with fewer video games forward of us than behind. The place does the time go?
Final week, I hit on two of my three props, with Sam Darnold falling miserably in need of his 1.5 passing touchdowns and as an alternative throwing three interceptions… together with two of them in the long run zone. What can I say, you win some you lose some.
However as we speak is a brand new day, with new props, new strains and new alternatives in entrance of us. Let’s dive into the Week 11 props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the newest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
5:29
Ought to Jared Goff be out of the MVP race?
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether or not Lions QB Jared Goff needs to be within the MVP race after a 5-interception efficiency in opposition to the Texans.
Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
Dopp: Goff is coming off his worst recreation of the season by which he threw 5 interceptions. It wasn’t fairly in Houston, because the Texans’ protection harassed him early and sometimes.
The Jaguars’ protection hasn’t been fairly pretty much as good in opposition to quarterbacks, registering solely 21 sacks on the season (eighth-fewest within the league) and solely 5 interceptions (seventh-fewest). The Lions will assuredly plan to make the most of their RBs on this one. And whereas that might imply potential ground-game touchdowns, you higher consider that Lions OC Ben Johnson has plans to get Goff again on observe with some straightforward passes within the quick recreation. Over the previous seven video games, Goff has six outings with not less than two touchdowns, with the wet out of doors recreation at Lambeau Subject being the one exception. On prime of that, Jacksonville has given up 19 landing passes this yr, the fourth-most within the NFL.
In what seems like a rebound recreation at dwelling in opposition to a struggling Jacksonville crew, I am totally anticipating to see the MVP-level Goff we have seen tor a lot of the season.
By the best way, discover how this Goff landing prop leans proper into the Jake Bates further level prop (you will see it under). We’re all about correlation when potential similar recreation parlays!
Mac Jones UNDER 34.5 move makes an attempt (+100)
Dopp: You could be saying to your self: this does not really feel prefer it correlates effectively with the opposite two props. I imply, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs and certain must throw the ball a ton, which might imply taking the over on move makes an attempt right here.
However, not so quick my buddy.
First off, Jones would not encourage a ton of confidence. As a way to throw the ball loads, it’s a must to keep on the sector a good quantity, and the potential for the Lions to dominate time of place via their floor recreation is a severe menace to that chance. Add within the propensity for brief drives or three-and-outs from Mac’s offense and you may begin to see why developing in need of this line is an actual chance.
And although the Jags have been enjoying catchup within the majority of their video games, Trevor Lawrence solely hit this line twice in 9 video games, and the Lions have solely allowed one QB to go over 34.5 move makes an attempt all season. In actual fact, the Jags have failed to realize a primary down on 41.5% of their drives this season, third-worst within the NFL.
Whereas it could look like recreation script might dictate a whole lot of throwing, the Jags should put collectively a whole lot of profitable drives with a view to keep the quantity wanted to go over this mark, one thing I do not see occurring given their incapability to realize first downs. It is at all times doable that the Jags might shock us, however I am following the tendencies.
Working again props
2:15
Subject Yates: Christian McCaffrey is a top-5 RB each week
Stephania Bell and Subject Yates focus on Christian McCaffrey’s return in Week 10 and what it means for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 74.5 dashing yards, scores dashing TD, 49ers win (+190)
Liz Loza: McCaffrey made his 2024 debut final Sunday, logging 19 touches for over 100 scrimmage yards. A lot for being eased again into motion.
McCaffrey might have regarded a bit rusty as a rusher, averaging 3.0 YPC in Week 10, however I am assured he’ll return to kind versus a gettable Seahawks run protection that has allowed the fourth-highest YPC at 4.8. To the purpose, CMC has registered not less than 75 dashing yards in every of his 4 conferences as a 49er when dealing with Seattle. In actual fact, he is truly cleared 100 dashing yards in every of these efforts.
Moreover, the Seahawks have given up eight scores to RBs in 9 video games performed to date, making McCaffery (who led the place in complete scores in 2023) a strong guess to seek out pay filth. McCaffrey’s capability to raise the offense can’t be overstated, significantly in matchups versus Seattle. Curiously, San Francisco is 4-0 in opposition to the Seahawks within the common season (5-0, when together with the playoffs) since CMC was traded to the 49ers on Oct. 20, 2022. I am all in on this particular wager for a particular participant!
Nick Chubb OVER 59.5 dashing yards (-115)
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Loza: Chubb is averaging underneath 3.0 YPC, however many did not even assume it was doable for him to return from a second catastrophic knee damage. Whereas he has managed 37.7 dashing yards per contest and has but to clear the above line, I am betting on Chubb to stay extraordinary. With three contests underneath his belt, and recent off a bye, the 28-year-old ought to cruise on the Large Simple.
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 5.2 YPC (second-highest) and over 113 dashing yards per recreation (sixth-most) to opposing RBs. Given Chubb’s workhorse standing, quantity should not be a problem, as he is managed not less than 15 carries in back-to-back video games. That form of quantity, together with a mushy matchup, and Jameis Winston’s capability to stretch the sector, Chubb (who averaged over 85 dashing yards per outing from 2019 via 2023) figures to document his finest effort of the season on Sunday.
Tight finish props
0:51
Why Travis Kelce’s fantasy season took a flip for the higher
Liz Loza breaks down the fantasy resurgence of Chiefs tight finish Travis Kelce.
Travis Kelce OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+100) and 1+ TD (+140)
Loza: Bear in mind the beginning of the season when the fantasy group was wringing its collective arms over Kelce’s lack of manufacturing? My how instances have modified.
Rashee Rice’s damage in Week 4 compelled Kelce to turn out to be extra concerned. The star tight finish has since averaged an NFL-best 8.7 receptions per recreation and has commanded almost one-third of the Chiefs’ goal share. That enhance in quantity has, naturally, created an uptick in manufacturing, as Kelce has averaged almost 72 receiving yards per recreation (clearing the above line in 4 of his previous six outings) throughout that span.
He’ll journey to Orchard Park in Week 11. Curiously, Kelce has both scored or gone over 80 receiving yards in every of his previous seven conferences in opposition to the Buffalo Payments, together with postseason outings. I like the chances of each occurring in what’s projected to be an in depth recreation on Sunday.
Kicker (sure, kicker) props
Jake Bates OVER 3.5 further factors (+130)
Dopp: All of my props this week are from the identical recreation, because the Detroit Lions tackle the Jacksonville Jaguars within the Motor Metropolis. You’ll be able to play these props solo or put them right into a same-game parlay (SGP) for just a little further enjoyable.
I particularly wished to deal with this recreation, not due to my Lions fandom, however due to the outrageous 14-point unfold, the most important to this point within the 2024 NFL season.
There must be some good worth that we will discover on this one, and I am going with Mr. Clutch himself. After flattening two 50-plus yard discipline targets final week to guide the Lions to an 8-1 begin, Bates’ prop line for XP’s is available in at 3.5. It is a hefty quantity, do not get me unsuitable, however I am all about this one.
Bates has 4 video games this season with 4 or extra further factors. In actual fact, in each recreation the Lions have scored not less than 30 factors, Bates has had not less than 4 further factors. Given the two-touchdown edge Detroit is getting, I am feeling mighty comfy on this Lions offense getting again on observe after eeking out a win in Houston the place Jared Goff threw 5(!) interceptions.
As of publish time, the sport complete is 46.5, which has to favor a Lions offense that averages 30 factors per recreation. This high-scoring offense now will get a Jags crew that has given up 30 touchdowns in 10 video games to this point this yr — a mean of three per recreation.
Name me optimistic in believing that the Lions, in opposition to a Mac Jones-led Jaguars crew, ought to dominate time of possession and discover themselves scoring in bunches. Plus they’re at dwelling, coming off an in depth win by which the offense did not play significantly effectively, which is why this appears like a terrific “get proper recreation” for Detroit.
That is why I am taking former UFL famous person Jake Bates to go over 3.5 further factors in Week 11.
Observe Liz and Daniel on social media.
