Cincinnati Bengals
A gradual begin is acquainted territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons beneath Zac Taylor, the Bengals have began 0-2 5 instances. However dropping their opening three video games is new floor, and the percentages at the moment are stacked in opposition to them. Solely 4 out of 162 groups which have began a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the percentages barely in Cincy’s favor, however not by a lot.
In the event you take the constructive view, the Bengals have appeared flawed in all three video games this season however had been nonetheless solely a handful of performs away from going 3-0. The destructive view is that after once more they’ve struggled to evolve their offense, and for the primary time since Joe Burrow got here to city the protection has bottomed out.
By three weeks, the Bengals have the Thirtieth-ranked protection within the NFL by EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. And whereas that alone is sufficient to make a workforce twitchy, much more disconcerting are the under-the-hood figures. Cincy’s had a pass-rush win price of simply 9.8% in opposition to Washington on Monday night time. That’s not how typically pass-rushers got here near touching Jayden Daniels, it’s how typically defenders beat particular person blockers. In 10 years of recorded knowledge, it’s the worst pass-rush efficiency on file.
Burrow and the offense present hope. After a dud in opposition to the Patriots in week one, the offense has been superb – Burrow has thrown 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. If that may maintain, then the Bengals ought to be capable of sneak again into the wildcard race. They’ve a positive schedule over the following 4 weeks with video games in opposition to the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens, which might see them nudge nearer to .500. However until they’re capable of finding some juice alongside the line of defense they’ll be out of the playoff image earlier than Thanksgiving.
Panic stage: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is off to a gradual begin. And there are many theories why. Is he podcasting an excessive amount of? Worrying about his movie profession? Spending an excessive amount of time with Tay? The more than likely rationalization is easy: he’s a 34-year-old tight finish.
Enjoying tight finish is brutal and bruising. When the decline comes, it’s quick. And there have been warning indicators final yr that the top is nearing. In 2023, he began slowly, caught hearth halfway via the calendar after which took one other dip towards the top of the common season. Bar a few big video games in opposition to the Payments and Raiders, Kelce had a tricky go of it throughout the Chiefs’ last 9 regular-season video games. However by the point the playoffs rolled round, he was again to his greatest.
This season might comply with an analogous trajectory. Though he’s ageing, Kelce continues to be able to being one of the dynamic weapons within the league. He nonetheless has an unteachable reference to Patrick Mahomes that may bail KC’s offense out of tough spots. The times of him being a assured first down could also be gone, however he stays an enormous play ready to occur.
Because the Chiefs work in a brand new group of receivers and look to a youthful tight finish, Noah Grey, to ease a number of the burden on Kelce, his numbers will take a dip – apologies to the fantasy crowd. However by the point the postseason rolls round, it is going to be Kelce that Mahomes nonetheless seems to be to on must-have-it downs, and he nonetheless has loads of tread on his tires to be a distinction maker.
Panic stage: 3/10
Dallas Cowboys
It’s important to hand it to Dallas, they discover new, grotesque methods to entertain each season. If the postseason meltdowns weren’t sufficient, this season’s twist is a doozy: they’re allergic to stopping the run.
There’s nothing extra demoralizing for a workforce than having the ball slammed down their throat over and over. By three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the worst run-defense within the league – and it’s not notably shut. They rank thirty second in EPA per play; they’ve conceded extra explosive runs than any workforce within the league; they’ve whiffed on extra tackles than anybody. And there could also be no extra damning determine within the opening stage of the season than Dallas’ 6.18 common depth of deal with. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys are conceding six yards earlier than a defender even says hi there to a ball service.
A lot goes into stopping the run. However it may be boiled down to 3 overriding ideas: expertise, approach and tenacity. The Cowboys are missing in all three – and in any respect three ranges of the protection as well. Rewatch their matchups in opposition to the Ravens or Saints and also you’ll see the line of defense being pushed backwards, linebackers flailing round, and descending safeties getting misplaced within the carnage earlier than them. It’s jarring, generally amateurish. Thus far, changes to the scheme and personnel haven’t eased the issue.
“We’ve acquired to be detailed,” defensive again Jourdan Lewis stated on Monday. “I imply, on the finish of the day, this about us stopping individuals. That’s simply what it’s.” The small print have been missing, however the Cowboys merely lack the our bodies upfront. Former first-round choose Mazi Smith has struggled to maintain up with NFL pace at defensive deal with, and so they’ve cycled via a rotation of grizzled vets beside him whose greatest days are lengthy gone.
Of all the issues which have undercut the Cowboys’ poor begin to the season, none is as destabilizing as their lack of ability to cease the run. And discovering a midseason resolution will likely be a problem.
Panic stage: 8/10
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Jacksonville Jaguars
You recognize issues have reached five-alarm territory when a head coach is speaking about overhauling his whole offense three weeks right into a season. “There must be adjustments, whether or not it’s play design, personnel, all the things,” Doug Pederson stated after Monday night time’s 47-10 loss to the Payments.
Of their final 10 quarters, Jacksonville have scored simply 23 factors and have transformed solely 18% of their third downs. However past the outcomes is the sense that Jacksonville’s offense has zero id – no organizing precept. They play like a scholar who’s crammed for the take a look at the night time earlier than. All the things seems to be sloppy. Nothing flows. It’s an offense devoid of concepts paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who continues to overlook simple alternatives once they do arrive.
If we’re apportioning blame, then lots ought to go to Jaguars administration for an underbaked roster and a training workers that has left the offense wanting unprepared. However Lawrence has his faults too. For all of his bodily expertise, he continues to make ugly, virtually inexplicable choices. On any given week, he’s as liable to ship a mind-numbing turnover as he’s the throw of the day. In some unspecified time in the future, inconsistency just isn’t some maddening behavior holding you again out of your full potential. It’s who you might be.
The way in which the schedule units up, Pederson could possibly be out of a job by the point the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic stage: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After clinching the title of offseason champions, the begin to the Bears’ precise season has been dispiriting. An offense anticipated to ship fireworks has sputtered. In the meantime, Chicago have been pressured to look at as Jayden Daniels units hearth to secondaries and Justin Fields guides the Steelers to a 3-0 file.
However any sense of panic needs to be muted. Caleb Williams could have arrived in Chicago with loads of hype, strolling into the most effective conditions in a very long time for a No 1 general choose at quarterback. The Bears surrounded their younger QB with a glitzy receiving corps. They invested closely of their offensive line. On the opposite aspect of the ball, they returned the majority of a protection that cracked the top-five by the top of final season. However teething issues had been to be anticipated.
The early returns have been scattershot. Williams has made poor choices. At instances, the sport has moved too shortly for him. His accuracy has been up and down, and he’s been anxious to interrupt away from the offense to attempt to create. However even amid the early hiccups, there are the flashes of the participant that Williams will hopefully turn out to be. Thus far, his offensive line has been a sieve, pushing him to indulge his freelancing behavior. If that tightens up even barely, then Williams will be capable of distribute the ball round extra successfully.
That early August optimism could have light and the remainder of the roster could also be additional away from playoff rivalry than anticipated. However because it pertains to Williams, Chicago ought to heed the phrases of a former foe.
Panic stage: 2/10
