NFL Week 1 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

NFL Nation, ESPNSep 6, 2024, 07:50 PM ET

The Week 1 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we have got you coated with what it’s essential know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the most important keys to each sport, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Stats & Info group gives an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X elements, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us remaining rating picks for each sport. Every part you need to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.

Let’s get into the complete Week 1 slate, together with the Dallas Cowboys battling the Cleveland Browns and Matthew Stafford’s Sunday night time go to to Detroit. All of it culminates with a “Monday Evening Soccer” matchup between the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers on ESPN. (Recreation instances are Sunday except in any other case famous.)

Thursday: KC 27, BAL 20Friday: PHI 34, GB 29

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -3.5 (41.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to observe: With a lot consideration on the Steelers’ quarterbacks, their offseason defensive additions flew underneath the radar. That ends Sunday, when inside linebacker Patrick Queen shall be a key a part of the plan to gradual RB Bijan Robinson. The Steelers can rely on Robinson, who regardless of inconsistent utilization in his rookie season had 976 yards and 4 touchdowns, to be a major issue within the Falcons’ assault. The Steelers’ run protection ranked within the backside half of the league, permitting 4.3 yards per carry final season, however including Queen to play alongside thumper Elandon Roberts ought to shore up that unit. — Brooke Pryor

Falcons storyline to observe: If the Falcons’ anemic move rush, bolstered by the acquisition of edge rusher Matthew Judon, goes to interrupt out, there won’t be a greater alternative than Week 1. Steelers QB Russell Wilson has been sacked greater than any signal-caller within the league since he was drafted in 2012 (527), and Pittsburgh is coping with accidents on its offensive line. Judon will need assistance from Arnold Ebiketie (six sacks in 2023) for a group that was lifeless final in move rush win fee in 2023 (30.9%). — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: The Steelers have a 15-2-1 file towards the Falcons. Pittsburgh’s final loss to Atlanta was in 2006.

Daring prediction: Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will file an interception. Porter ranked fourth amongst all outdoors corners in yards allowed per protection snap final yr, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — extremely spectacular for a rookie. Now a Week 1 starter, that is the yr he turns into a star — starting with a choose off QB Kirk Cousins. — Walder

Accidents: Steelers | Falcons

Fantasy X issue: Falcons tight finish Kyle Pitts. Atlanta’s offense must be extra balanced underneath new coordinator Zac Robinson, which is nice information for Pitts together with improved quarterback play from Cousins. The Steelers’ protection ranks seventh in move rush win fee (46.6%), and wideout Drake London faces a tricky matchup towards Porter. Pitts ought to discover success beneath towards a Steelers group that ranked within the prime half of the league in fantasy factors allowed to tight ends final season. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons have been 5-12 ATS final season, tied with the Chargers for the worst file within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Falcons 20, Steelers 12Moody’s choose: Falcons 24, Steelers 21Walder’s choose: Falcons 19, Steelers 16FPI prediction: ATL, 58.8% (by a mean of three.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Can Wilson, Fields redeem Steelers’ offense? … Kirk Cousins says Falcons ‘have probability to do one thing’

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -6.5 (48.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to observe: Sunday would be the extremely anticipated debut of Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and there will be a lot to observe for. How will he be utilized by Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and QB Kyler Murray? How will the Payments play him? How will he deal with his first NFL sport? These round him have raved about his maturity and the way his NFL studying curve has been shortened due to that maturity and his household background. — Josh Weinfuss

Payments storyline to observe: How precisely this Payments offense appears in Week 1 shall be intriguing to see. The broad receiver room underwent main change this offseason, and Joe Brady is taking on the offensive coordinator position full-time. The primary-team offense, now wholesome, noticed restricted taking part in time within the preseason, with eight snaps for QB Josh Allen. This would be the first vital sport motion the group will get. Will probably be a very good alternative for Allen and the offense to start out the yr at house towards a Cardinals protection that allowed the second-most factors per sport in 2023 (26.8). — Alaina Getzenberg

Weekly NFL sport skilled picks

• Recreation picks from our NFL consultants »• Betting notes » | Extra NFL protection »

Stat to know: The Payments misplaced 45% of receiving yards and 52% of receiving touchdowns from final season with the departure of Stefon Diggs (Houston) and Gabe Davis (Jacksonville).

Daring prediction: Payments broad receiver Khalil Shakir will file seven or extra receptions. Rookie Keon Coleman would possibly at some point flip into this group’s No. 1 receiver, however Shakir is probably going essentially the most dependable wideout proper now, particularly after posting a powerful 2.1 yards per route run final season. I am assured he’ll do injury towards a weak Cardinals protection. — Walder

Accidents: Cardinals | Payments

Fantasy X issue: Payments operating again James Prepare dinner. The Cardinals had the league’s worst run protection final season, rating thirty second in speeding yards allowed per sport (143.2). With minimal offseason additions, Arizona’s defensive entrance stays susceptible, setting the stage for Prepare dinner to have a standout efficiency. He averaged 19.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy factors per sport throughout Weeks 11-18 final season. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Murray is 12-7-1 ATS in his profession when getting at the very least 4 factors, together with 10-4-1 ATS on the highway. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Cardinals 21, Payments 20Moody’s choose: Payments 31, Cardinals 24Walder’s choose: Payments 33, Cardinals 17FPI prediction: BUF, 67.7% (by a mean of seven.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How Murray, Cardinals hope a visit to L.A. interprets to in-season wins camaraderie … The evolution of Buffalo’s roster and QB Allen’s management expectations

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -8.5 (40.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to observe: The Patriots’ offensive line is probably going going to be with out projected starters Vederian Lowe (indirect) at left sort out and Sidy Sow (ankle) at left guard, which makes a formidable problem towards the Bengals’ high-end defensive position that a lot more durable. New England ranked final within the NFL in move block win fee (43.4%) in 2023, and deciding on the “greatest 5” offensive linemen in 2024 coaching camp has been an evolving course of — making it arguably the group’s greatest query mark coming into the season. — Mike Reiss

Bengals storyline to observe: Despite the fact that the Bengals are an 8.5-point favourite, New England’s secondary will function a very good check for Cincinnati’s passing assault. Quarterback Joe Burrow is in his first sport again from a wrist damage. Andrei Iosivas is making his debut because the group’s slot receiver, and issues are nonetheless up within the air with star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who has hardly practiced as he awaits a brand new deal. New England contains a beginning cornerback combo of Jonathan Jones, who had sturdy defensive protection numbers final season, and Christian Gonzalez, a 2023 first-round choose coming off a season-ending shoulder damage. — Ben Child

Stat to know: Since 2020, the Bengals are 1-7 within the first two weeks of the season, tied with the Vikings for the worst file within the NFL.

Daring prediction: The Bengals will rating a defensive or particular groups landing. I do not know what the brand new kickoff will carry, however I’ve to assume at the very least in Week 1 — when groups would possibly unleash a trick or two — there must be an elevated probability of a kick returned for a rating. And given the state of the Patriots’ offense, notably its offensive line, I feel a catastrophic error in some unspecified time in the future is not that unlikely. I even have a mannequin for this, and it provides Cincinnati a greater probability of a D/ST rating than anybody in Week 1 (17% probability, although take the quantity with a grain of salt given the brand new kickoff). — Walder

Accidents: Patriots | Bengals

Fantasy X issue: Patriots operating again Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bengals’ getting older defensive position struggled final season, rating twenty sixth in run cease win fee (29.2%), and 2024 won’t be higher, particularly with out DJ Reader. Count on Stevenson to get most early-down and goal-line touches in offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s new Patriots offense. He has averaged 15.1 touches and 74.3 yards per sport to date in his profession. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Prior to now 25 seasons, groups laying over a landing (at the very least 7.5 factors) in Week 1 are 20-36 ATS. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Bengals 28, Patriots 13Moody’s choose: Bengals 24, Patriots 13Walder’s choose: Bengals 20, Patriots 16FPI prediction: CIN, 75.0% (by a mean of 10.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Brissett’s journey to turning into Patriots’ beginning QB … Bengals imagine if Chase performs, he’ll make affect … What’s subsequent for Patriots QB Maye?

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -3.5 (44.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to observe: There is not a lot movie on Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson since that is his first time totally operating his personal present, however he cited aggressive coordinators Gregg Williams and Todd Bowles as main influences on his philosophy. The rule of thumb is at all times to assault a rookie quarterback, so anticipate Wilson’s protection to blitz relentlessly whereas mixing coverages pre- and post-snap to confuse QB Caleb Williams and make him uncomfortable. When the Titans do assault Williams, the move rush should be coordinated, with no “unbiased contractors,” as outdoors linebacker Harold Landry III put it. — Turron Davenport

Bears storyline to observe: Williams goals to develop into the primary quarterback drafted No. 1 to win his first profession begin since David Carr in 2002 — the previous 15 QBs chosen with the highest choose are 0-14-1 of their first begin. Chicago desires Williams to lean on the gamers round him, and he’s the one rookie in NFL historical past to start out his group’s season opener with two receivers who had 90-plus receptions the earlier season (Keenan Allen, 108; DJ Moore, 96). “Within the early components of the sport and early downs, he is simply requested to play level guard,” coach Matt Eberflus mentioned of Williams. “Have an awesome operation, play level guard, get the ball to our ability both by handing it off or throwing it to him and letting them do the operating and shifting round and gaining the yards.” — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Bears operating again D’Andre Swift completed with 745 speeding yards earlier than contact final season, which was the second most within the NFL behind Christian McCaffrey (888).

Why fantasy managers ought to imagine in Caleb Williams and the Bears

Liz Loza raves concerning the Bears’ offense and tells Bears followers “there’s actual purpose to be hopeful” going into the season.

Daring prediction: Titans linebacker Arden Key will file at the very least one sack. My mannequin provides him a 43% probability, however I like Key — an underrated participant who had a 20% move rush win fee final yr — to get it accomplished towards Williams. Whereas an outstanding prospect, Williams did will be inclined to take sacks in school (83 in three seasons). — Walder

Accidents: Titans | Bears

Fantasy X issue: Titans operating again Tyjae Spears. The Bears’ protection improved considerably within the second half of final season. Nevertheless, it nonetheless allowed essentially the most receiving yards to operating backs. Spears, who completed final season with the ninth-most targets amongst RBs (70) and 838 whole yards, ought to proceed being a dependable receiving valve out of the backfield for QB Will Levis. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Quarterbacks drafted No. 1 general are 0-14-1 outright and 1-14 ATS of their first profession begins since 2003. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Bears 20, Titans 17Moody’s choose: Bears 21, Titans 14Walder’s choose: Titans 23, Bears 20FPI prediction: CHI, 64.6% (by a mean of 6.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: DeAndre Hopkins returns to Titans apply, may play opener … Bears’ Williams OK with sport plan for Titans, not involved about stats … Titans look the half on paper after $228M spending spree

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -3 (48.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to observe: QB C.J. Stroud threw for 648 yards and 4 landing passes in two video games towards the Colts throughout his rookie season. That was with out newly added All-Professional receiver Stefon Diggs. Now Stroud’s playmakers embody Diggs with the receiver duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, alongside tight finish Dalton Schultz. Stroud may have one other sturdy efficiency in Week 1 towards Indianapolis. — DJ Bien-Aime

Colts storyline to observe: The Colts are counting closely on their defensive entrance to create constant strain towards Stroud to compensate for a younger secondary. Indianapolis sacked Stroud six instances within the first assembly final season, including 18 QB pressures. Within the second assembly, with Houston’s offensive line at full energy, the Colts sacked Stroud twice and produced simply eight pressures. What is going to Sunday carry? — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Colts are winless in 10 straight season openers, which is the longest lively streak and the second longest in NFL historical past.

Daring prediction: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will publish a QBR underneath 30 for the sport. Whereas he flashed ability final season, Richardson nonetheless wasn’t that environment friendly, posting only a 45 QBR in his restricted motion. However that is extra concerning the Texans’ protection, which I feel could possibly be very troublesome for Richardson to beat. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are going to present the second-year QB a tough time. — Walder

Accidents: Texans | Colts

Fantasy X issue: Texans operating again Joe Mixon. The Colts’ protection struggled to comprise operating backs final season, giving up the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport to the place. Mixon faces minimal competitors for snaps and touches in Week 1, setting him up for an enormous position in a high-scoring sport. The Texans should not have any bother shifting the ball by way of the air towards the Colts’ inexperienced secondary. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: That is the primary time Houston has been a Week 1 favourite since 2017, snapping the second-longest Week 1 favourite drought within the NFL (Giants, 2016). Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Colts 18, Texans 17Moody’s choose: Texans 30, Colts 21Walder’s choose: Texans 30, Colts 7FPI prediction: HOU, 53.7% (by a mean of 1.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Texans not operating from Tremendous Bowl expectations … Colts GM Chris Ballard defends strategy amid blended outcomes

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -3.5 (48.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to observe: The brand new guys on offense — receivers Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. — have been added with one essential objective in thoughts: Stretch the sphere extra. Davis has averaged 16.7 yards per catch in his four-year profession, and Thomas averaged 17.3 yards per catch final season at LSU. QB Trevor Lawrence was already coming off the perfect yr of his profession when it comes to deep throws — 13-of-42 on throws of at the very least 25 yards within the air for 505 yards — and the Jaguars have set the stage for him to take extra pictures down the sphere. — Mike DiRocco

Dolphins storyline to observe: The Jaguars obtained 27.5 sacks out of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker final season, and on paper, the 2 move rushers have a bonus towards a Dolphins offensive line breaking in three new starters. New middle Aaron Brewer returned to apply this week after a three-week absence, however coach Mike McDaniel mentioned it will take a group effort to decelerate the Jacksonville duo. Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle additionally returned from minor accidents this week, giving the league’s prime offense in 2023 its main move catchers. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Hill has averaged 109.9 receiving yards per sport in eight season openers. That is essentially the most profession receiving yards per sport in season openers in NFL historical past (minimal 5 video games performed).

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Daring prediction: Dolphins operating again De’Von Achane will break off a 40-plus-yard play from scrimmage. Regardless of carrying the ball simply 103 instances final season, Achane ranked second in rush yards over expectation (behind solely Christian McCaffrey). Now that he is wholesome to start out the 2024 season, I anticipate him to place up big numbers. — Walder

Accidents: Jaguars | Dolphins

Fantasy X issue: Dolphins operating again Raheem Mostert. Even in a backfield with Achane, Mostert should not be forgotten. He averaged 0.51 fantasy factors per snap (second better of any participant) and had 19 speeding makes an attempt contained in the 5-yard line final season (tied for many within the league). The Jaguars did enhance their defensive position this offseason, however they’re nonetheless a middle-of-the-road unit. The Dolphins will not draw back from the operating sport towards Jacksonville. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Final season, the Dolphins have been 9-2 ATS as favorites (8-1 outright) and 1-6 outright/ATS as underdogs. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 21Moody’s choose: Dolphins 28, Jaguars 21Walder’s choose: Dolphins 34, Jaguars 21FPI prediction: MIA, 59.8% (by a mean of 4.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Can Jaguars’ Hines-Allen construct a legacy in Jacksonville? … Dolphins rookie DE Robinson taking suggestions from OT Armstead

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -4 (41.5 O/U)

Panthers storyline to observe: Eight of QB Bryce Younger’s 62 sacks final season got here towards New Orleans, with half of these from inside strain. That is why the Panthers spent $150 million on upgrading the center of the road with guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt and moved veteran guard Austin Corbett to middle. Additionally it is why new coach Dave Canales, who has a popularity for turning round quarterbacks, spent the offseason asking Younger to eliminate the ball in not more than 2.7 seconds and introduced in receiver Diontae Johnson, who can create separation to get open rapidly. All shall be essential towards what could possibly be a top-10 Saints protection. — David Newton

Saints storyline to observe: The Saints benched former left sort out Trevor Penning final season after the offensive line allowed 13 sacks in 4 video games and quarterback Derek Carr obtained harm. Now Penning is again within the lineup at proper sort out, with rookie first-round choose Taliese Fuaga manning the left facet. The Saints spent the offseason overhauling the offense and employed new coordinator Klint Kubiak to implement a brand new scheme. Defending Carr shall be a key factor to observe early within the season because the Saints attempt to work out any points with the new-look offensive entrance. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: The Panthers have been the one winless group on the highway final season (0-9). Their final highway win was a 10-7 victory over the Saints on Jan. 8, 2023.

Daring prediction: Saints operating again Alvin Kamara will file 55 or extra receiving yards. A slew of things are pointing me in that course. The Saints have a leaky offensive line and the Panthers have a sneaky stable cornerback duo in Michael Jackson and Jaycee Horn. Plus, Carolina defensive sort out Derrick Brown will deal with stuffing the Saints’ different operating again, Jamaal Williams, up the center. Kamara catching passes gives the trail of least resistance for the offense. — Walder

Accidents: Panthers | Saints

Fantasy X issue: Panthers operating again Chuba Hubbard. With rookie Jonathon Brooks beginning the season on injured reserve, Hubbard is ready to thrive in 2024 because the Panthers’ featured again. He is prone to profit from the scheme of Canales, who helped Rachaad White see 336 touches final season in Tampa Bay. Like White, Hubbard has a three-down ability set and must be closely relied on by the Panthers towards the Saints. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Unders have been 12-5 in Panthers video games final season, the best underneath share within the NFL. The Panthers have been 6-11 ATS final season with the second-worst common cowl margin within the NFL (minus-5.6). Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Saints 17, Panthers 9Moody’s choose: Saints 17, Panthers 14Walder’s choose: Panthers 20, Saints 17FPI prediction: NO, 64.4% (by a mean of 5.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Will Younger shine underneath new Panthers coach Canales? … Chase Younger, backup QBs and extra: 5 questions looming for Saints

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -1.5 (41.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to observe: The Vikings are kicking off one of many least-anticipated seasons of their latest historical past. ESPN Analytics provides them a 14% probability to make the playoffs, their lowest by far since ESPN started projecting postseason appearances in 2015. Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending knee damage put Sam Darnold on the helm of a marketing campaign that features the NFL’s fifth-most troublesome schedule. The excellent news is that the Vikings are slight favorites in Week 1 on the Giants, essentially the most winnable sport on paper within the first half of the season. — Kevin Seifert

Giants storyline to observe: It is the primary profession sport for 2024 No. 6 choose Malik Nabers, the Giants’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver. He will get a positive matchup in Week 1 towards a Vikings protection that allowed a wholesome 80.6 yards per sport and eight touchdowns to No. 1 receivers final season. Will probably be an offseason cornerback acquisition for Minnesota, both Stephon Gilmore or Shaquill Griffin, making an attempt to comprise the explosive Nabers who — if coaching camp is any indication — must be focused early and sometimes as a rookie this season. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Darnold has a 42 whole QBR over his profession, the worst among the many 26 QBs with 50 begins since he entered the league in 2018.

Daring prediction: Giants rookie tight finish Theo Johnson — who may have a significant position — will file at the very least 4 receptions. QB Daniel Jones has averaged underneath 7 air yards per goal in every of the previous three seasons. And I’ve to think about dealing with the fixed blitzes from Brian Flores’ protection will make him extra prone to eliminate the ball rapidly. Johnson could possibly be the beneficiary. — Walder

Accidents: Vikings | Giants

Justin Jefferson primed for fantasy stardom in Week 1

Take a look at some stats about Justin Jefferson as he begins his season vs. the Giants in Week 1.

Fantasy X issue: Vikings operating again Aaron Jones. The Giants’ protection gave up the Tenth-most fantasy factors allowed per sport to operating backs final season. Regardless of new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and a few offseason additions, New York is not anticipated to enhance a lot. Jones ought to get loads of touches on a Vikings group that ranked twenty ninth in speeding yards (1,553) and thirty first in speeding touchdowns (seven) final season. He completed sturdy with three straight video games of 14-plus fantasy factors with the Packers in 2023. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants have coated six straight video games as a house underdog (9-3 ATS underneath coach Brian Daboll). Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Vikings 17, Giants 14Moody’s choose: Giants 21, Vikings 17Walder’s choose: Vikings 26, Giants 18FPI prediction: NYG, 49.9% (by a mean of 0.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Is Darnold able to be Vikings’ season-long beginning QB? … Brian Burns often is the lacking piece for Giants’ D … What Vikings GM Adofo-Mensah realized from disastrous 2022 draft

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (40.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to observe: Vast receiver Davante Adams didn’t have a lot on-field work this offseason with new QB Gardner Minshew as Adams missed vital time. So over the previous two weeks, the duo has been specializing in their chemistry. “We have been enhancing every single day … it is one thing that we’re decided to proceed to construct on all through your complete yr,” mentioned Adams, who can develop into one in all 4 gamers in NFL historical past with at the very least 100 catches in 4 straight seasons. “We need to proceed to get higher because the yr goes on, when it counts increasingly as we get deeper and deeper within the season.” — Paul Gutierrez

Chargers storyline to observe: As a part of their schedule launch rollout, the Chargers’ social group posted Raiders wideout Adams subsequent to a garbage-flavored Pop-Tart graphic. The publish upset Adams, who took to the “Up & Adams Present” to remind the group and the followers of his success towards them since he was traded to the Raiders. The Chargers’ secondary will look to again up the social group’s trash speak towards Adams, who has averaged 123.5 yards towards Los Angeles in 4 video games as a Raider. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: This shall be Jim Harbaugh’s first sport as an NFL coach for the reason that 2014 season. He has the fifth-best win share (.695) as a head coach in NFL historical past.

Daring prediction: The Raiders will rating lower than 14 factors. They’ve proficient gamers on this offense, do not get me incorrect. Adams is a famous person, No. 2 receiver Jakobi Meyers is completely underrated and Kolton Miller is a really dependable sort out. However I am simply having a tough time shopping for Minshew with out Shane Steichen — his playcaller in Indianapolis — as a severe risk. I feel the Raiders stumble out of the gates. — Walder

Accidents: Raiders | Chargers

Fantasy X issue: Raiders operating again Zamir White. The Chargers’ protection was among the many worst in yards allowed per sport and struggled towards the run in 2023. Regardless of Harbaugh and new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, their entrance seven ought to nonetheless be weak. With the Raiders’ QB state of affairs being lower than excellent, anticipate Las Vegas to lean on White. He had 20-plus touches in every of his remaining 4 video games final season and completed because the eighth-best fantasy RB in that span. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders have been 12-5 ATS final season, tied with the Lions for the perfect file within the NFL. Unders have been 11-6 in Raiders video games. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Raiders 20, Chargers 17Moody’s choose: Chargers 34, Raiders 17Walder’s choose: Chargers 23, Raiders 13FPI prediction: LAC, 63.3% (by a mean of 5.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Longest-tenured Raider Kolton Miller is coronary heart of O-line … Harbaugh is making an attempt to vary the Chargers’ shedding tradition; this is how he is doing it

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: SEA -6 (41.5 O/U)

Broncos storyline to observe: Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix hasn’t taken a regular-season snap however has already carved out a slice of franchise historical past — he is the primary rookie to be named a group captain since Corridor of Fame RB Floyd Little in 1967. And when he opens the sport towards the Seahawks he would be the first rookie quarterback to start out for coach Sean Payton and the primary rookie signal-caller to start out a Broncos opener since one other Corridor of Famer, John Elway, did in 1983. So expectations are swirling round Nix, whose inaugural sport shall be held in a tricky place to play towards a artistic defensive teaching workers in its first yr. How Nix handles it’ll bear watching. — Jeff Legwold

Seahawks storyline to observe: The Mike Macdonald period in Seattle begins on Sunday. Along with Macdonald’s head-coaching debut, the Seahawks’ opener will mark the disclosing of the brand new schemes they’ve put in on each side of the ball. The protection Macdonald has imported from Baltimore — the perfect within the NFL over his two seasons as coordinator — is constructed round being troublesome for opponents to decipher. Nix should try this amid the din of Lumen Area. — Brady Henderson

Better of NFL Nation

• Epic effort to ship Packers, Eagles to Brazil• Timeline of Goff’s exceptional Lions revival• Saints pressing in Yr 3 underneath Dennis Allen• Rams in search of revenge in Detroit• Cowboys, McCarthy see alternative in 2024

Stat to know: The Broncos have misplaced 4 of their previous 5 season openers. Every loss was by one rating, together with one-point losses in every of the previous two seasons.

Daring prediction: Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will file 200 passing yards within the first half. I feel there’s an opportunity that Ryan Grubb’s offense will get off to a lightning-fast begin with a pass-heavy strategy that results in massive numbers for Smith and a blowout win for the Seahawks. — Walder

Accidents: Broncos | Seahawks

Fantasy X issue: Broncos operating again Javonte Williams. He is anticipated to guide Denver’s backfield in touches and shall be up towards a Seahawks protection that gave up the third-most fantasy factors per sport to backs final season. Williams ought to see loads of motion as each a runner and receiver in Nix’s first regular-season begin. Denver’s operating backs had a league-leading 32% goal share in 2023. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Broncos have been 6-11 ATS final season. Over the previous two seasons, they’re 13-21 ATS, tied with the Saints for the worst within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Seahawks 24, Broncos 14Moody’s choose: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20Walder’s choose: Seahawks 31, Broncos 14FPI prediction: SEA, 66.7% (by a mean of 6.8 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Welcome to the NFL, rookie: Nix will face vital early assessments … Seahawks leaving new Smith deal ‘apart’ for now … How Broncos fell into the NFL cellar and what’s subsequent … Woolen coming into Yr 3 with extra to show

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CLE -2.5 (40.5 O/U)

Cowboys storyline to observe: The Cowboys shall be beginning two rookies on the offensive line for the primary time since 2011, and one in all them, left sort out Tyler Guyton, shall be going towards the reigning Defensive Participant of the Yr, Myles Garrett. The opposite, middle Cooper Beebe, shall be requested to make the calls towards a protection that was the perfect at house final season. The Cowboys won’t ask Guyton to dam Garrett alone on a regular basis, however there shall be instances when he should face Garrett one-on-one. Quarterback Dak Prescott has confidence within the two rookies, however their first sport at a troublesome venue towards a prime protection shall be a problem. — Todd Archer

Browns storyline to observe: The Browns will unveil a revamped offense they hope can get QB Deshaun Watson again to Professional Bowl type, however Cleveland has questions past its beginning signal-caller. Left sort out Jedrick Wills Jr. advised reporters he will not begin as he continues to come back again from a season-ending knee damage, which may pressure proper sort out Jack Conklin to maneuver to the left facet, a place he hasn’t performed since school. It might be a tricky transition for Conklin, who’s coming back from his personal season-ending knee damage, towards a move rush led by Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons. — Daniel Oyefusi

Stat to know: Vast receiver CeeDee Lamb is 5 receptions away from being the quickest Cowboys participant to succeed in 400 profession receptions, passing Dez Bryant (80 video games).

Daring prediction: Browns broad receiver Cedric Tillman will rating a landing. The 2023 third-rounder turned heads this offseason and figures to play into Cleveland’s offensive plans this season. Plus, the Cowboys are hurting at nook with DaRon Bland out 6-8 weeks with a foot damage. — Walder

Accidents: Cowboys | Browns

Fantasy X issue: Browns operating again Jerome Ford. The Cowboys’ protection led the league in move rush win fee final season (59.5%) however was unable to cease the run, ending twenty seventh in run cease win fee (28.6%). It might be smart for the Browns to be balanced on offense even with operating again Nick Chubb on the bodily unable to carry out record. Final season, in aid of Chubb throughout Week 2 towards the Steelers, Ford scored 24.1 fantasy factors, and he averaged 12.9 factors throughout Weeks 3-17. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns have been 7-0 ATS as house favorites final season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Cowboys 30, Browns 21Moody’s choose: Cowboys 24, Browns 21Walder’s choose: Browns 28, Cowboys 24FPI prediction: DAL, 51.0% (by a mean of 0.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Cowboys coach McCarthy sees ‘alternative’ in lame-duck season … Browns’ Watson has ‘little question’ he is nonetheless one in all NFL’s elite QBs … Cowboys conserving Elliott contemporary for RB committee position … How Browns hope to unlock Watson, offense in 2024

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -3.5 (42.5 O/U)

Commanders storyline to observe: Washington will open the season with a brand new beginning quarterback for the eighth consecutive season. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels can also be the third first-round choose to start out for the group since Robert Griffin III in 2012. Washington has positioned lots of religion in Daniels, however he’ll face a tricky job towards a protection that blitzed the third most within the NFL final season. As an LSU senior in 2023, Daniels ranked fifth within the nation with a 93.5 QBR vs. the blitz — with 17 landing passes and no interceptions and solely 10 sacks in 117 performs. — John Keim

Editor’s Picks

2 Associated

Buccaneers storyline to observe: Whereas the Bucs had the seventh-best protection final season when it comes to factors allowed per sport (19.1), they surrendered 65 move performs of 20 or extra yards — second most. In addition they surrendered six speeding touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks — which tied for second most. Given Daniels’ well-documented deep ball and speeding prowess, these are potential vulnerabilities with some comparatively unproven guys on protection entering into greater roles at edge rusher and cornerback. “[Daniels is] like Lamar Jackson 2.0,” Bucs defensive again Tavierre Thomas mentioned. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Commanders allowed 30.5 factors per sport final season, which was the fourth most by any group over the previous decade.

Daring prediction: Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean will intercept Daniels. Whereas Terry McLaurin is an efficient receiver, he has by no means been an elite separator, so Dean figures to be across the ball a lot when he is on the Commanders’ No. 1 wideout. Regardless of how good a prospect Daniels is, he is nonetheless a rookie in his professional debut. He’ll in all probability present an interception alternative or two. — Walder

Accidents: Commanders | Buccaneers

Fantasy X issue: Buccaneers broad receiver Chris Godwin. Final season, the Commanders’ protection gave up the second-most fantasy factors per sport to broad receivers and struggled mightily towards slot receivers. Washington’s group of cornerbacks remains to be a priority. With new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme, Godwin is predicted to play primarily within the slot. He has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in every of the previous three seasons, averaging 8.6 targets per sport. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 13-26-1 ATS in his profession as a favourite, the worst mark of any signal-caller with at the very least 30 begins as a favourite within the Tremendous Bowl period. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Commanders 21, Buccaneers 17Moody’s choose: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 20Walder’s choose: Buccaneers 23, Commanders 17FPI prediction: TB, 62.3% (by a mean of 5.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Bucs QB Mayfield trying to take ‘subsequent step’ in 2024 … How vets Ertz, Ekeler earned roles to assist rookie QB Daniels

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: DET -4.5 (52.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to observe: Rams WR Puka Nacua missed three weeks throughout coaching camp with a knee damage however is on observe to play in Week 1. Final season, he not solely set the NFL rookie file for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486) throughout the common season, however then had his greatest sport of the season within the Rams’ playoff loss to the Lions. In that sport, Nacua had 9 catches for 181 yards and a landing, setting the NFL file for many receiving yards by a rookie in a playoff sport. — Sarah Barshop

Lions storyline to observe: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs says he is wholesome after being sidelined throughout the preseason with a hamstring damage. Gibbs is as soon as once more anticipated to be an enormous a part of the Lions’ offense. Lions coach Dan Campbell mentioned Gibbs, who made the Professional Bowl as a rookie, appears good coming off the damage and heading into Yr 2. “When you may run like he runs — I imply this man can run — then in case you do not [test] that pace in apply at the very least a few times a day, you set your self up for one thing [bad] to occur on Sunday,” Campbell mentioned. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Rams RB Kyren Williams had seven straight video games with 100 scrimmage yards to finish final season, which is the longest lively streak within the NFL.

Daring prediction: The Rams will generate constructive EPA per play on designed carries. There’s some blind Sean McVay religion in right here as a result of Detroit allowed minus-.09 EPA per play on designed carries final season, however I am positively to see how the brand new inside of the Rams line — with Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson becoming a member of Steve Avila — fares. — Walder

Accidents: Rams | Lions

Fantasy X issue: Lions quarterback Jared Goff. His reference to broad receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is plain, and he is additionally throwing to a breakout candidate in receiver Jameson Williams. Goff is up towards a Rams protection that allowed the third-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks final season. Additionally, Goff has averaged 25.2 fantasy factors per sport at house over the previous two seasons. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions have been 11-6 to the over final season, tied with the Browns and Colts for the best over share. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: Lions 30, Rams 24Moody’s choose: Lions 35, Rams 31Walder’s choose: Lions 34, Rams 27FPI prediction: DET, 63.5% (by a mean of 5.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Rams rookies Verse and Fiske have been school associates, now professional teammates … Lions now a vacation spot free of charge brokers, GM Holmes says

Stephen A. curious whether or not Lions can dwell as much as lofty expectations

Stephen A. Smith picks the Lions to win the NFC North however questions whether or not the group can win a Tremendous Bowl.

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: SF -4.5 (43.5 O/U)

Jets storyline to observe: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers faces a well-known opponent in his extremely anticipated return from Achilles surgical procedure. Rodgers has a 6-3 regular-season file towards the 49ers — with 20 landing passes and two interceptions. He shall be trying to snap a Week 1 hunch. In his previous three openers, he compiled two losses, no landing passes and one season-ending damage. — Wealthy Cimini

49ers storyline to observe: If the 49ers’ offense and the Jets’ protection are something like they have been in 2023, this could possibly be one of the entertaining battles of the season. For the reason that 1970 merger, this would be the first time the group that led the NFL in offensive yards per play (49ers, 6.6) meets the protection that led the NFL in fewest yards allowed per play (Jets, 4.6) from the prior season in an opener. Jets coach Robert Saleh was the defensive coordinator underneath Niners coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco from 2017 by way of 2020, which solely makes the matchup of Saleh’s protection versus Shanahan’s offense much more attention-grabbing. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: In 2023, the Jets allowed the fewest passing yards to broad receivers by any group for the reason that 2016 Broncos (1,588).

Daring prediction: 49ers broad receiver Brandon Aiyuk will file underneath 20 receiving yards towards cornerback Sauce Gardner. I feel Gardner’s Defensive Participant of the Yr marketing campaign begins in Week 1 by shutting down the newly paid Aiyuk. It can assist that Aiyuk has been out of shape for therefore lengthy and could be rusty. — Walder

Accidents: Jets | 49ers

Fantasy X issue: The Jets’ secondary. With Gardner main the best way, New York allowed the fewest fantasy factors per sport to broad receivers final season. The full on ESPN BET doesn’t mean a high-scoring sport. This could possibly be an awesome spot for operating again Christian McCaffrey and tight finish George Kittle. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: In three seasons underneath Saleh, the Jets are 20-31 ATS, tied for the second-worst file within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s choose: 49ers 21, Jets 13Moody’s choose: 49ers 21, Jets 17Walder’s choose: 49ers 20, Jets 16FPI prediction: SF, 64.1% (by a mean of 6.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jets coach: ‘Like discovering change’ in sofa if Reddick reveals … Aiyuk again working towards with 49ers … Jets coach Saleh trying to ‘reconnect’ the dots … 49ers’ Williams ends holdout, reaches $82.66M deal

Friday sport

Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -2.5 (49.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to observe: Solely the Titans picked off fewer passes final season than the Packers’ seven. Below new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, Inexperienced Bay confirmed a knack for choosing off passes in coaching camp, particularly from a security place that was overhauled and now consists of Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams. Contemplating quarterback Jalen Hurts threw an interception in every of his final 4 video games to finish the 2023 season, this might give the Packers an early alternative to point out that their protection shall be completely different. — Rob Demovsky

Eagles storyline to observe: Operating again Saquon Barkley makes his Eagles debut. If it is something like what he confirmed in apply this week, the followers in Sao Paulo, Brazil, are in for a present. “He made a run at apply [Monday] and I simply bear in mind — I used to be sporting sun shades, it was sunny, I used to be simply sort of taking my sun shades off and a few coaches like, ‘All proper, that is superior that we obtained him right here,'” coach Nick Sirianni mentioned. The Eagles imagine Barkley, who appeared in 14 video games for the Giants final season and completed with 962 speeding yards and 6 touchdowns, will thrive behind this offensive line and alongside playmakers corresponding to Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He’ll face a Packers group that completed twenty eighth in speeding yards allowed in 2023 (128.3 YPG). — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Hurts ranked third amongst QBs with 605 speeding yards in 2023. The Packers tied for twenty ninth in speeding yards allowed by opposing quarterbacks (419).

Daring prediction: Eagles broad receiver A.J. Brown will file 100 or extra receiving yards. The Eagles’ offense vs. the Packers’ protection pits two new schemes towards one another, so there are lots of unknowns. With that uncertainty, I need to wager on participant ability, which Brown has in abundance. He recorded an 80-plus open rating in ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics in every of the previous three seasons, so irrespective of the system, he’ll be open. — Walder

Accidents: Packers | Eagles

Fantasy X issue: Packers broad receiver Jayden Reed. The Eagles gave up essentially the most fantasy factors to broad receivers final season, particularly struggling towards slot receivers. Reed, who lined up within the slot 67% of the time in 2023, may carry out properly towards a Philadelphia secondary that is gone by way of lots of modifications. He scored 15-plus fantasy factors in seven of his previous eight video games. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 20-7 towards the unfold (ATS) and 16-11 outright in his profession as an underdog. Each are the perfect information amongst coaches with at the very least 15 video games as an underdog within the Tremendous Bowl period. Learn extra.

Stephen A.: Hurts is a much bigger MVP candidate than Love

Stephen A. Smith says Jalen Hurts has proven he has extra MVP potential than Jordan Love.

Kahler’s choose: Packers 28, Eagles 24Moody’s choose: Packers 30, Eagles 23Walder’s choose: Eagles 24, Packers 23FPI prediction: PHI, 57.5% (by a mean of three.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Why sending Packers, Eagles to Brazil was no small feat … Eagles look to bridge Sirianni, Hurts divide … Walker’s path to changing Packers’ LT Bakhtiari

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