NL Wild Card Series Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves

With the 2022 change to a 12-team playoff format, the addition of the Wild Card Collection, and the choice to dispose of winner-take-all tiebreaker video games, Main League Baseball thought it had caught a fork in Crew Entropy and executed away with end-of-season scheduling chaos. However with the league’s failure to method final week’s scheduled Braves-Mets sequence in Atlanta with the required stage of proactivity within the face of Hurricane Helene, the 2 groups have been pressured to play a doubleheader on Monday to find out the ultimate two NL Wild Card berths. Whereas the Braves squandered leads of 3-0 and 7-6 within the late innings of the opener, the groups in the end break up the doubleheader; each completed 89-73 and made the lower, whereas the Diamondbacks, who performed their closing recreation as scheduled on Sunday, missed it as a result of they misplaced their season sequence towards the pair. The Braves needed to fly cross-country on Monday evening in an effort to make their date with Padres (93-69) in San Diego.

It’s a banged-up Braves crew at that. Not solely are they lacking Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider on account of season-ending accidents, however they’re now with out Chris Sale. The 35-year-old lefty could effectively gather the Cy Younger award that has lengthy eluded him, however he hasn’t pitched since September 19. A lot was product of the Braves’ plan to begin him simply as soon as within the closing week as an alternative of twice, and simply when the baseball world anticipated him to begin the must-win second recreation of Monday’s doubleheader, he was dominated out on account of again spasms. Supervisor Brian Snitker mentioned after the win that he doesn’t anticipate Sale to pitch within the Wild Card Collection, and added that that is one thing the pitcher has handled on and off this season. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos instructed reporters previous to Sale’s scratched begin that he wouldn’t be occurring the injured checklist.

As for the Padres, after a disappointing 2023 season wherein they received simply 82 video games and squandered a franchise-record $255 million payroll and a full season of Juan Soto, they’re again within the postseason for the third time in 5 seasons. It took awhile for the Padres to hit their stride; they have been simply 50-49 on the All-Star break however went a serious league-best 43-20 (.683) thereafter. Not solely did they safe the highest NL Wild Card spot (and thus house area benefit right here) however they even put a scare into the Dodgers earlier than the latter received the NL West.

To their credit score, the Padres turned issues round whereas Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been on the injured checklist. The rotation seemed considerably threadbare, however offseason additions Dylan Stop and Michael King rose to the event. Xander Bogaerts overcame a shoulder damage of his personal and ultimately took over shortstop from the injured Ha-Seong Kim. An outfield that seemed thinner than any within the league obtained stellar contributions from Rookie of the 12 months candidate Jackson Merrill and Comeback Participant of the 12 months candidate Jurickson Profar. Excluding Kim, who’s slated to bear season-ending surgical procedure to restore a small tear in his labrum, San Diego’s roster is in comparatively good well being.

Rotations

With Musgrove and Darvish each pitching effectively since their returns, the Padres have one of many higher rotations of any playoff squad, they usually’re very effectively arrange for a brief sequence. The best way supervisor Mike Shildt has laid it out, Darvish is predicted to pitch out of the bullpen on this spherical.

The centerpiece of the return within the Soto commerce, King spent a full main league season in a rotation for the primary time at age 29, and it was a superb one. He overcame a sluggish begin (a 5.00 ERA and 6.30 FIP in April) to complete fourth within the NL in ERA, fifth in strikeouts (201) and strikeout price, and eighth in FIP. He was notably stingy down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP within the second half. Throughout that late run, he added about one mile an hour to each his four-seamer and sinker, more and more favoring the latter, and labored forward within the depend with larger frequency; he boosted his first-pitch strike price from 64.5% within the first half to 69.0% within the second, a price that may have ranked fifth amongst certified starters if he had sustained it for the entire season. As Ben Clemens just lately identified, the enhancements made King’s sinker/changeup mixture notably efficient (he notched 118 of his 201 strikeouts with these two pitches), particularly inside a pitch combine that additionally included a new-for-2024 slider that launched extra lateral variation. The brand new motion profile graphs at Baseball Savant give us a transparent image:

From the All-Star break onward, King generated a whiff price of 34.5% or increased from his four-seamer, changeup, slider, and sweeper whereas typically catching batters trying on the sinker.

Musgrove, who missed the final two months of 2023 on account of shoulder capsule irritation, continued to battle accidents into this season, posting a 5.66 ERA and 5.36 FIP earlier than touchdown on the IL on June 1 on account of discomfort brought on by a bone spur and a bone bruise in his proper elbow. After returning on August 12, he regained a little bit of velocity and pitched like an ace, posting a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.59 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout price in 50 1/3 innings; 5 of his 9 begins have been scoreless. In that span, batters produced only a .224 wOBA towards his four-seamer, .212 towards his cutter, and .186 towards his sweeper.

Acquired from the White Sox in mid-March, Stop made a seamless transition to the NL as a top-of-the-rotation stalwart, inserting fourth within the NL in innings and FIP, and third in strikeout price and WAR (4.8). He did it whereas relying closely on a four-seamer/slider combo, throwing both one pitch or the opposite over 87% of the time to righties and over 85% of the time to lefties. The heater averages 96.9 mph and is especially efficient towards righties (.342 SLG, 27.2% whiff), however the difference-maker is the slider, which had the second-highest Statcast run worth (19) within the majors behind that of Sale; batters hit simply .159 and slugged .257 whereas whiffing on 44.7% of swings towards it. When Stop wants a 3rd pitch, he spots both a knuckle curve or sweeper, although lefties appear to have the previous’s quantity.

“Disarray” is just too delicate a phrase to explain the Braves’ rotation within the wake of Monday’s motion and the lack of Sale, provided that Max Fried final pitched on Friday and will probably be on three days of relaxation when the sequence begins, Charlie Morton pitched on Sunday, and Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López each pitched on Monday. Through MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, at this writing the three choices Snitker and firm are mulling to begin Recreation 1 every spent much more time at Triple-A Gwinnett than Atlanta: Ian Anderson, who made 10 begins there after getting back from April 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure however hasn’t pitched within the majors since ’22, when issues have been already going downhill; AJ Smith-Shawver, who made 20 begins at Gwinnett however only one for Atlanta; and Bryce Elder, who made 17 begins for Gwinnett and 10 for Atlanta. Fried is the plain name for Recreation 2, as he’ll have 4 days of relaxation, and López, who pitched one scoreless reduction inning in Monday’s second recreation, would have 4 days between begins for Recreation 3.

Elder, a sinker/slider righty who not often exceeds 92 mph, threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.42 FIP final 12 months, however struggled after the All-Star break, reducing his inventory within the eyes of the crew. The 25-year-old started this season at Gwinnett, and yo-yoed between the majors and minors all season, coming as much as pitch the again half of doubleheaders or fill in on account of accidents however not sustaining sufficient success to stay. The place batters hit simply .210 and slugged .393 towards his slider final season, these numbers rose to .278 and .593 this 12 months; the pitch’s Statcast worth plummeted from seven runs above common to 4 beneath. He simply doesn’t have a lot in the best way of weapons proper now. Anderson, now 26, helped the Braves win all of it in 2021 — bear in mind his 5 no-hit innings in Recreation 3 of the World Collection towards Houston? — however had a 5.00 ERA and 4.25 FIP in ’22 earlier than his demotion. Starting on June 18, he made 4 lower-level rehab begins within the minors earlier than working his means as much as Gwinnett, the place he managed a 3.96 ERA and 4.89 FIP throughout 10 begins (52 1/3 innings), hanging out 23.2% of opposing batters however strolling 11.8%. In response to Statcast, his four-seamer averaged 92.8 mph, 1.2 mph beneath his common in 2023, when it was hit onerous, and 1.8 mph beneath his common in ’22, when the pitch was nonetheless efficient. Batters slugged .578 off the heater this 12 months, however his 33.9% whiff price on his changeup and 37.5% price on his slider at the very least provide glimmers of hope if the Braves go along with him. Smith-Shawver, a 21-year-old righty who made six appearances final 12 months for the Braves plus one this 12 months, was tagged for a 4.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP at Gwinnett. His four-seamer averaged 95 mph however was hit onerous 49.6% of the time, and whereas his changeup was efficient, his breaking pitches weren’t.

Fried was hit for a 7.71 ERA over his first 4 begins however quickly started placing up zeroes. In actual fact, he left each his April 29 begin towards the Mariners and Could 11 begin towards the Mets with out permitting successful, and from April 23 onward, he posted a 2.79 ERA and three.15 FIP, although he did miss about three weeks in July and August on account of a bout of neuritis in his left forearm. A decrease launch level helped him escape his early rut by getting extra rise and horizontal motion along with his four-seamer. He turned to his sinker extra typically (15.8%, up from final 12 months’s 11.7%) and obtained fewer swinging strikes than prior to now, however he did a superb job of suppressing onerous contact. The Padres are notably weak towards lefties (extra on that beneath), so he may give them hassle.

López returned to beginning after two years within the bullpen and was a revelation, along with his four-seam fastball and slider each rating excessive on the Statcast worth leaderboards. His slider held hitters to a .171 AVG and .262 SLG whereas netting whiffs on 44.1% of swings. His curve, used predominantly towards lefties, was equally efficient. The Braves went to nice lengths to handle his ramping up from final 12 months’s 66 innings; 11 of his 25 begins have been made on six or extra days of relaxation. He made two journeys to the IL within the second half — one in early August on account of forearm tightness and the opposite in September on account of shoulder irritation — and threw simply 31 innings over these closing two months. His effectiveness didn’t diminish, at the very least. In his first begin off the IL on Saturday, he threw six innings of two-hit, one-run ball towards the Royals, hanging out 9.

Bullpens

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller remade the Padres bullpen earlier than the commerce deadline, including righties Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing and lefty Tanner Scott. With Adam and Scott sliding into the highest setup roles and Hoeing right into a middle-relief slot, the brand new guys mixed for a 1.76 ERA and 26.7% strikeout price over a mixed 76 2/3 innings with the Padres, and middlemen Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitched effectively, too. One have a look at the crew’s pitch-modeling leaderboard makes clear what an improve this was; the brand new guys account for 3 of San Diego’s high six relievers by Stuff+ (116 or higher). Scott’s four-seamer, Adam’s changeup, and Hoenig’s splitter (to not point out Estrada’s 84-mph split-change) all positioned on the Statcast leaderboards as a number of the most useful choices of their type.

The remade bullpen produced a 3.16 ERA and three.20 FIP after the All-Star break, although the large concern was the late-season struggles of nearer Robert Suarez, who was lit for a 5.24 ERA and 4.46 FIP in August and September whereas hanging out simply 17.5% of hitters, down from 26.1% by means of July; he blew three of his final eight save possibilities. Scott, who notched 18 saves with the Marlins and 4 with the Padres, does provide a tried-and-true various in case Shildt wants one. As for Darvish, he’s by no means made a reduction appearances within the majors, however pitched out of the bullpen for Samurai Japan within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional.

The Braves had the NL’s greatest bullpen by FIP (3.41) and second greatest by ERA (3.32), strikeout price (26.6%), and WAR (6.2), and given the form of their present rotation, they’ll have to depend on their relievers to have a shot at advancing. Raisel Iglesias, who posted a 1.95 ERA and a pair of.65 FIP, is among the recreation’s high closers regardless of blowing the save within the first recreation Monday, when he allowed two runs on two hits, together with a homer, in one-third of an inning. This season, batters hit .163 or decrease and slugged .279 or decrease towards all 4 of his choices (four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup), with whiff charges of 32.5% or increased towards all however the sinker. He returned to pitch a scoreless ninth inning in Monday’s Recreation 2, notching his thirty fourth save of the season. High setup man Joe Jiménez additionally pitched each video games Monday and was one of many goats within the opener, permitting three runs on three straight hits within the eighth inning with out recording an out, however these three runs have been his first earned runs allowed since August 27. He too bounced again with a scoreless inning within the second recreation, and he’s been superb total (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 29.6% strikeout price).

The Braves misplaced setup man A.J. Minter to season-ending hip surgical procedure in August. Pierce Johnson hasn’t been as efficient since getting into the breach, however generally, he’s been more practical towards lefties (holding them to a .267 wOBA) than the unit’s two lefties, Aaron Bummer (.316) and Dylan Lee (.312). Given how gassed Atlanta’s pitching is, anticipate a good bit of ageless lengthy man Jesse Chavez and 28-year-old rookie Daysbel Hernández, whose 98-mph fastball/slider combo helped him strike out 35.1% of hitters in his 18 innings of late-season work.

Offenses

The Padres have been probably the most contact-oriented crew within the majors this season; their strikeout price was practically two share factors decrease than another crew whereas their stroll price was the NL’s second lowest. This didn’t inhibit their manufacturing, as they ranked sixth within the NL in scoring and residential runs however third in wRC+. Their lineup doesn’t have a Soto-like centerpiece — hey, just one crew does — however they did have 4 gamers hit at the very least 20 homers and submit a wRC+ of 122 or higher: Merrill, Profar, Tatis, and Manny Machado. Tatis (.276/.340/.492, 135 wRC+) hit 21 homers in simply 106 video games and was about as efficient after his September return from a stress response in his proper femur. Profar (.280/.380/.459, 139 wRC+, 24 HR) loved a profession 12 months with the bat after being arguably the worst common participant in baseball final 12 months; his 4.3 WAR represented practically a six-win enchancment. The 21-year-old Merrill (.292/.326/.500, 130 wRC+, 24 HR) made a seamless transition from shortstop to heart area and proved to be the Cardiac Child, hitting six house runs from the seventh inning or later that both tied the sport or gave the Padres the lead. The 32-year-old Machado (.275/.325/.472, 122 wRC+, 29 HR) spent the primary 4 weeks of the season restricted to DH responsibility, and he managed simply an 86 wRC+ in April and Could, however from June 1 onward he hit .294/.343/.536 (142 wRC+).

Talking of before-and-after-injury splits, Bogaerts hit for only a 71 wRC+ earlier than struggling a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball in late Could; he batted .292/.333/.429 (115 wRC+) upon his mid-July return and completed with a 95 wRC+. That makes him the one Padres common with a mark beneath the league-average 100, however his manufacturing takes on extra significance given the lack of Kim, whose damage led the Padres to reverse this spring’s center infield switcheroo. It additionally set off a series response, shifting Jake Cronenworth again to second base, with Luis Arraez — who simply claimed his third straight batting title by way of a .313 AVG however a extra modest 109 wRC+ — sharing first base and DH duties with Donovan Solano.

One challenge that stands out relating to the Padres is their excessive platoon break up. Their 20-point hole in wRC+ towards righties (116) and lefties (96) was the biggest in that course of any crew within the majors, although such gaps in both course aren’t completely unusual among the many playoff groups:

The place this actually hurts the Padres is on the subject of their lefty bats: Arraez (84 wRC+), Merrill (82 wRC+), and Cronenworth (57 wRC+) have been all very dangerous towards same-side pitching, and even when we develop the samples, neither Arraez nor Cronenworth has executed effectively towards them over the previous three seasons (94 wRC+ for the previous, 85 wRC+ for the latter). However (actually), the righty-swinging Bogaerts’ 84 wRC+ towards lefties was uncharacteristic; he has a 134 wRC+ towards them over the previous three seasons.

One different side value noting: The Padres have been simply eighth within the NL in stolen bases and success price (81%), however they do have 5 lively gamers with between 10 and 16 steals this 12 months — Bogaerts, Machado, Merrill, Profar, and Tatis — none of whom was caught greater than thrice.

The Braves offense presents a marked distinction to that of the Padres, and never simply because they’re on the different excessive of that platoon spectrum. (They mashed lefties, however the Padres aren’t beginning any, d’oh.) Past their middling no. 8 rank within the NL in per-game scoring and wRC+ was the best way they obtained there: They have been second in house runs, fourth in strikeout price, and second-to-last in steals. Eleven totally different Braves hit at the very least 10 homers, although Marcell Ozuna (39) and Matt Olson (29) have been the one ones with greater than 20. Ozuna was the centerpiece of the offense, hitting .302/.378/.546 (154 wRC+) whereas beginning at DH in all 162 video games, a efficiency that would earn him down-ballot MVP votes, notably in a 12 months when a DH is prone to win the award.

Accidents contributed to Atlanta’s low offensive rankings; in spite of everything, Acuña alone accounted for extra stolen bases final 12 months than this 12 months’s complete crew (16 of these have been his, pre-injury). Ozzie Albies, who missed two months on account of a fractured left wrist, took an enormous step backward, hitting simply .251/.303/.404 for a 91 wRC+ (down from 125) and 9 homers (down from 33). Michael Harris II, who missed two months on account of a left hamstring pressure, slipped from a 116 wRC+ to 100 (.266/.306/.424) and from 20 steals to 10, although he’s the one lively participant on the roster with double-digit swipes.

Not each step again was owed to accidents. Orlando Arcia made his first All-Star crew final 12 months however was a Substitute Degree Killer this season, managing only a 72 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Riley wasn’t having his sometimes potent season earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18. Olson, who not solely performed 162 video games for the third straight 12 months however performed each inning at first base, fell from 54 homers, a .604 SLG, and a 161 wRC+ final 12 months to 29 homers, a .457 SLG, and a 117 wRC+; perhaps some relaxation would have helped. The left area platoon involving Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall — with a little bit of end-stage Eddie Rosario thrown in — was Substitute Degree Killer territory till Ramón Laureano took over and hit .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers in 67 video games.

Laureano and deadline acquisition Jorge Soler, who hit .243/.356/.493 (135 wRC+) with 9 homers after being acquired from the Giants, contributed to a midseason outfield makeover paying homage to 2021 (of which Soler was additionally half). Former Tiger Gio Urshela, who’s now the beginning third baseman, hit a semi-respectable .265/.287/.424 (95 wRC+) whereas changing Riley.

Defenses

The Padres have been the one playoff crew to complete within the pink by way of DRS (-3), they usually have been even additional beneath common in UZR (-8.4) and FRV (-13). To be truthful, these numbers are considerably weighed down by since-demoted backup catcher Luis Campusano; alternative Elias Díaz and starter Kyle Higashioka are each far more strong behind the plate. Nonetheless, of their present state the Padres do have points. The return of Tatis from his 10-week absence was offset by the lack of the slick-fielding Kim; Bogaerts’ numbers in his 152-inning pattern at shortstop have been effective, however the crew clearly prefers him at second. The domino impact of getting Arraez taking part in the sector means having a DH-caliber first baseman. In the meantime, Tatis didn’t have something near the sort of season that received him final 12 months’s Platinum Glove, and Profar was an actual legal responsibility in left, however Merrill was distinctive in heart.

The Braves are the higher defensive crew based mostly on the metrics, although solely DRS (41) marks them effectively above common; they’re kind of common by UZR (-2.7) and FRV (2). Harris is a standout in heart area, Olson a DRS darling at first base (14 DRS, 2 FRV, 0.4 UZR), and Urshela — lengthy a visually flashy fielder whose metrics haven’t all the time matched up — has executed effectively in his 304-inning pattern with the Braves. Soler is a real legal responsibility in proper (-11 DRS, -7 FRV, -3.7 UZR), a reminder of why he was completely a DH with the Giants pre-trade.

Even towards a rested opponent, the Padres would appear to be a robust crew; in spite of everything, Shildt’s membership did tie for the league’s third-best file. With its pitching lined up towards a winded and wounded Atlanta crew, I anticipate San Diego to care for enterprise right here after which stick round for a superb lengthy whereas this October.