Pereira vs. Rountree prediction: Champ chases legend status

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. Right this moment, he takes a better take a look at the UFC 307 foremost occasion: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree (ESPN+).

Alex Pereira UFC 307 preview

Alex Pereira

Staple data:

Document: 11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC
Peak: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs. Attain: 80″
Final struggle: TKO win over Jiri Prochazka (June 29, 2024)
Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Storage (Danbury, Conn.)
Stance/hanging type: Orthodox/kickboxing
Danger administration: Good

Supplemental data:+ UFC gentle heavyweight champion+ Former UFC middleweight champion+ 5x Glory middleweight and lightweight heavyweight titles+ Professional kickboxing file: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt+ 8 KO victories+ 3 first-round finishes+ Knockout energy^ Excellent proprioception and accuracy+ Devastating left hook and proper cross^ Instances splits and counters effectively+ Harmful knees and leg kicks+ Sturdy contained in the clinch^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations+ Serviceable grappling recreation+/-1-0 towards devoted UFC-level southpaws

Khalil Rountree UFC 307 preview

Khalil Rountree

Staple data:

Document: 14-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC
Peak: 6’1″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs. Attain: 76.5″
Final struggle: TKO win over Anthony Smith (Dec. 9, 2023)
Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas)
Stance/hanging type: Southpaw/muay Thai
Danger administration: Good

Supplemental data:+ “The Final Fighter: Season 23” Finalist+ Novice MMA titles (at middleweight and lightweight heavyweight)+ 10 KO victories+ 7 first-round finishes+ KO Energy^ third most knockdowns in UFC gentle heavyweight historical past+ Aggressive tempo and stress^ Reveals pacing and enhancements+ Harmful left hand and proper hook^ Coming ahead or off the counter+ Devastating leg kicks+ Sturdy contained in the clinch^ Strikes off the breaks+ Serviceable wrestling and grappling^ Primarily focuses on protection+ Ferocious floor striker

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree focal point: The price of counters

The primary occasion for UFC 307 includes a light-weight heavyweight title struggle between two males who’re conversant in the price of counters.

Though many will instantly level to the counter left hook, it’s in the end the proprioception of Alex Pereira that makes him so correct and harmful in all that he does.

Whether or not he’s hitting his opposition with stunning spin kicks or splitting proper palms within the hazard zone, Pereira demonstrates a preternatural intuition to seek out and hit targets in movement. This is also why his defensive layers can appear lackadaisical at instances, however the Brazilian does an honest job of taking part in off his lowered guard and purposefully gradual prods with the intention to invite opponents into awkwardly angled counters.

And when Pereira is the one pushing opponents on the again foot and in the direction of a barrier, he wields one of many extra understated jabs in MMA.

Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, however couldn’t assist throw this video collectively after listening to @TeddyAtlasReal discuss in regards to the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.

Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to assist illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023

Pereira’s kicks, although improved (significantly when getting used for returns), additionally include an ungainly kicking gate in tow, virtually as if he’s attempting to remain planted for counter-hook attachments always.

When going through southpaws, Pereira will nonetheless goal his opposition’s lead leg, however isn’t past attacking the rear extremity a la Sittichai Sangkhachot. Pereira will nonetheless make the most of his lead hand successfully towards lefties, displaying a knack for locating a southpaw’s blindspot with both left hooks or artful kicks.

Alex Pereira, who faces Jamahal Hill at #UFC300, has a restricted pattern towards southpaws in each kickboxing & MMA.

Poatan will nonetheless jab the top & physique in addition to assault each legs within the open stance (concentrating on the rear Sittichai type), however leans extra on countering traps in MMA: pic.twitter.com/XNfT5bUdLd

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 11, 2024

Nonetheless, Pereira isn’t past consuming traditional southpaw kicks and counters, so he’ll must respect what’s coming again at him on the ft.Enter Khalil Rountree.

The closest factor that MMA has to the Batman character “Bane,” Rountree – regardless of additionally being a former middleweight – is likely one of the most imposing presences to ever step foot into the UFC’s octagon.

Two minutes of Khalil Rountree delivering violence to folks #UFCVegas78 pic.twitter.com/luiu28ctKR

— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) August 10, 2023

Though Rountree made his title as a marauding knockout artist who ends fights shortly, the Syndicate MMA product has steadily sharpened his expertise, focus and persistence since taking the time to coach and journey at high spots all over the world.

From Rountree’s muay Thai coaching in Thailand to his earlier profession expertise at Black Home MMA in the course of the tail finish of Anderson Silva’s title run, “The Warfare Horse” brings extra to the desk than what his resume might current.

Now, below the care of head coach John Wooden, Rountree demonstrates stable pacing enhancements and way more confidence in his pure countering potential. Whether or not we’re speaking about traditional southpaw counters like verify hooks or left crosses, Rountree is hardwired to return with two to 3 strikes in tow (significantly when responding to kicks).

When working from a distance, Rountree has been a bit higher about getting on his jab in latest outings. That stated, the American’s kicks – each to the physique and legs – stay his standout menace from vary.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree breakdown: Potential grappling threats

With each males primarily being strikers by nature, the grappling realm turns into essentially the most mysterious a part of this matchup by default.

For my cash, the important thing junction on this division would be the clinch. Rountree, whose lone knockout losses are available closed quarters, has made marked efforts to bolster this a part of his recreation.

Using a modified palm-to-palm grip off of tight over-under tie-ups, Rountree, accompanied by some stable head place, does a a lot better job at killing the area inside clinches (more likely to keep away from the elbows he ate from Johnny Walker).

Rountree’s defensive wrestling responses have additionally improved on this area, displaying that he can power separations and nonetheless strike laborious off the breaks. And each time Rountree finally ends up on high or overhead of his opposition, the American will rain hell from above within the type of vicious soccer kicks and sledgehammer swings together with his fists.

Fortunately for Pereira, he has additionally made strides in these identical classes.Though the underhook has been a bit vacant in Pereira’s repertoire up to now, the champion has proven to make use of it along side his different instruments extra in latest fights. Pereira already works effectively off of collar ties and overhooks, so it’s good to see him including different techniques like underhooks and wrist controls as his MMA profession strikes on.

We haven’t needed to see a lot of Pereira’s jiu-jitsu within the octagon, however the Brazilian has clearly been specializing in all the pieces from his submission protection to his getups below the care of Glover Teixeira. And when “Poatan” finally ends up on high, his palms of stone translate seamlessly to the ground-striking facet of MMA.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree odds

The oddsmakers and the general public are closely favoring the sitting champion, itemizing Pereira -520 and Rountree +350 by way of FanDuel.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree prediction, choose

Regardless of not disagreeing with Pereira being favored to retain his title, I can’t assist however get the inkling that the stage has quietly been set for an upset this Saturday.

Apart from any intestine emotions or the truth that it is a risky battle between two heavy-handed strikers on the finish of the day, Pereira is arguably testing his luck with the exercise he’s preserving as champ. However extra particularly to this matchup, I imagine that Pereira could possibly be in large bother if he doesn’t get on his jab early and infrequently.

Though Pereira has historically appeared comfy with letting his lead hand go in open-stance affairs, it took him simply over a minute to begin letting jabs go towards the final (and solely UFC-level) devoted southpaw he confronted in Jamahal Hill.

Not solely is a minute greater than sufficient time for Rountree to take away somebody from consciousness, however the American has a particular knack for countering kicks that would function a gateway to Pereira’s demise. For that motive, I’d watch out about backing the champion on the betting window at his present asking costs.

Regardless that I’m an enormous fan of Pereira’s, I’ve extra of a bias towards the Rountree aspect on condition that we ran in related circles as youngsters – so combating my urge to formally choose him right here was an admittedly troublesome act that got here all the way down to the wire (although I don’t hate a small wager on him at his present odds).

That stated, once I set my private biases apart, selecting towards the proprioception and trap-setting choices of Pereira is a troublesome ask on condition that he’s one of many few on this division who can match Rountree for pace and energy.

Lead kicks from each events would be the sneaky pictures to be careful for on this struggle, however I believe that Pereira’s underrated jab would be the difference-maker, as long as he makes use of it. The official choose is for Pereira to climate some scary storms and potential staring contests early with the intention to jab his means into one other left hook stoppage by the third body.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree begin time, the place to observe

As the principle occasion in Utah, Pereira and Rountree are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:15 a.m. ET. The primary card airs on pay-per-view by way of ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and ESPN+.