The Brewers are kicking off their summer time commerce season with a deal to herald some much-needed rotation assist, saying the acquisition of right-hander Aaron Civale from the Rays in trade for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Milwaukee designated righty Taylor Clarke for project in a corresponding transfer.
It’s one of many first notable trades of the 2024 season — one which addresses a key want for the Brewers (rotation depth) whereas netting some longer-term worth for a Rays membership that has a number of arms nearing a return from damage. Proper-hander Shane Baz’s rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure is successfully wrapped up, whereas southpaw Jeffrey Springs is nearing a return from his personal Tommy John process, carried out final April. Righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an inner brace process final July, is additional behind that pair however is now one yr faraway from his surgical procedure.
With these arms nearing a return that’ll slot them in alongside Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have reportedly been open to dealing some veteran rotation assist — with Civale and Littell the first names among the many reported potentialities. It bears emphasizing that there is no such thing as a indication Tampa Bay is ready to embark on a full-scale rebuild or notable summer time sell-off. The group absolutely feels that shifting Civale (and probably nonetheless listening on Littell and Eflin) is a matter of buying and selling from a place of power. The Rays exist in a perpetual state of each “purchaser” and “vendor,” repeatedly flipping veterans with dwindling ranges of membership management (akin to Civale) in trade for youthful and extra controllable expertise.
Whereas the Rays are at the moment flush with viable rotation candidates, the identical can’t be stated for a Brewers squad that has been hammered by accidents in 2024. Wade Miley underwent Tommy John surgical procedure early within the season, and well-regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser adopted go well with final month after impressing by his first 5 large league begins (2.57 ERA). DL Corridor, acquired from the Orioles within the offseason Corbin Burnes commerce, has been out since April with a knee sprain. Righty Joe Ross is on the 60-day injured listing with a again pressure.
The Brewers, who lately acquired Dallas Keuchel in a money swap with the Mariners (and have acquired one tough begin and a second sharper outing from the previous Cy Younger winner), have already used 15 completely different beginning pitchers this season. Civale will make 16. In the intervening time, Milwaukee has Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea and Tobias Myers within the rotation alongside Keuchel. Rea and Myers have exceeded any expectations, combining for 25 begins (14 for Rea, 11 for Myers) whereas each sporting earned run averages effectively south of 4.00. They’ve been rotation saviors for first-year skipper Pat Murphy, however some reinforcements have been identified to be a goal for Milwaukee normal supervisor Matt Arnold and his employees with the commerce deadline now simply 27 days away.
Whereas it looks like most pitchers thrive and unlock a brand new gear upon being traded to the Rays group, that hasn’t been the case for Civale. Acquired late final July in a commerce sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland, Civale got here to the Rays with two and a half years of membership management remaining and a robust monitor report with the Guardians. The 2016 third-rounder had battled his share of damage troubles however sometimes been good to nice when wholesome. In components of 5 seasons, he gave Cleveland 430 innings of three.77 ERA ball, all popping out of the rotation. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per outing, punched out a barely below-average 21.1% of his opponents and restricted walks at a wonderful 6.1% clip.
With Tampa Bay, Civale has struggled to maintain his ERA down. He’s labored to a 5.17 ERA in 132 1/3 frames relationship again to final yr’s deadline. That unpleasant mark comes even though Civale has notably improved his strikeout price (24.7%) even because the league-average strikeout price has declined. He’s usually maintained his robust command, too (6.5% stroll price).
Nonetheless, Civale has grow to be more and more homer-prone, yielding a mean of 1.56 round-trippers per 9 innings pitched — a large uptick from the 1.19 HR/9 he averaged in Cleveland. He’s additionally been suffering from a spike in his common on balls in play (regardless of Tampa Bay’s robust protection). It’s all added as much as tank Civale’s strand price and result in extra runners crossing the plate, whilst metrics like xFIP and SIERA really feel he’s been a comparable pitcher to his Cleveland days from a talent standpoint.
Buying Civale is one thing of a roll of the cube by the Brewers. Including any homer-prone pitcher and plugging him into the Brewers’ homer-happy American Household Area will not be with out threat. That stated, Milwaukee additionally has a status for maximizing pitcher efficiency, simply because the Rays and Guardians do. The Brewers seemingly have their very own tweaks and slight adjustments to game-planning that they really feel may also help get Civale again into his Cleveland kind. Failing that, he not less than ought to supply some regular back-of-the-rotation innings.
For a budget-conscious group just like the Brewers, Civale absolutely holds some further enchantment. He’s incomes an affordable $4.9MM in 2024, with about $2.34MM of that sum but to be paid out. The Brewers will assume the rest of that tab. They’ll additionally management Civale by the 2025 season through arbitration, making him a possible multi-year member of the rotation. He’ll be due one ultimate elevate, although along with his sluggish begin to the season, his incomes energy through that course of might be comparatively suppressed even when he engineers a turnaround with the Brew Crew.
Barrios will give the Rays yet one more gifted infield defender to plug into the system. The Venezuelan-born 20-year-old is already in Excessive-A and has dealt with the extent fairly effectively regardless of dealing with older competitors. In 60 video games (252 plate appearances), Barrios is slashing .317/.361/.423 (121 wRC+) with a homer, 17 doubles, two triples, 16 steals (in 22 makes an attempt), a 5.2% stroll price and a tiny 9.5% strikeout price.
Getting into the season, Baseball America pegged Barrios twenty sixth in Milwaukee’s system. He sat No. 21 on MLB.com’s listing of the highest 30 Brewers prospects on the time of the swap, and Keith Regulation of The Athletic listed him simply exterior the Brewers’ top-20 farmhands heading into the season. Barrios’ robust defensive abilities and potential to be a plus glove at shortstop have made him a prospect of some word in Milwaukee’ system whilst he’s struggled offensively in his first three professional seasons.
That well-regarded glove now appears all of the extra intriguing with Barrios hitting effectively in opposition to extra superior pitching in Excessive-A. He’ll seemingly slot into the center of the Rays’ prime 30 or so prospects shifting ahead. Barrios received’t do something to enhance the Rays’ possibilities in 2024 (except he’s included in a subsequent commerce for assist in different areas), however by late 2025 or early 2026, he might push for a giant league debut if he’s capable of proceed this offensive breakout. He received’t be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft till the 2025-26 offseason, so the Rays needn’t fear about including him to the 40-man roster anytime quickly.
Whereas it’s the primary notable commerce of the season for each groups, it’s not prone to be the final. The Brewers might nonetheless use some rotation assist and have an enviable stash of younger outfielders that may proceed to pique the curiosity of different golf equipment. The Rays opened one rotation spot, seemingly for Baz, however nonetheless have one other outstanding arm (Springs) on the mend with one other on the horizon (Rasmussen). They’re at the moment three video games again within the AL Wild Card race, so a full sell-off shouldn’t be anticipated (barring a protracted shedding streak), however their inventory of arms will draw curiosity and supply them the chance to both restock their farm (as they did on this deal) or add some large league assist at one other space of want because the deadline attracts nearer.
Jon Heyman of the New York Put up first reported that Civale had been traded to Milwaukee. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers have been sending a minor league infielder to Tampa Bay. The Put up’s Joel Sherman first reported that Barrios was the return within the 1-for-1 swap.
