2:00
: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Dwell Chat at FanGraphs! Not less than considered one of us (often each) will probably be doing this each Friday at the moment.
When you’re aware of me or Jon, I feel that we take pleasure in speaking about something roster-related and can at all times attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not at all times very best for a stay chat the place you need to reply as many questions as attainable. However having each of us right here will enable us to nonetheless try this as a lot as attainable as we alternate answering questions.
And right here we go …
2:01
: Hey and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…
2:01
: Braves appeared to choose Grant Holmes to plenty of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final 12 months. You all are considering that adjustments over the offseason?
2:02
: So I feel that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that position final 12 months.
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market through the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as considered one of their 13 pitchers.
2:03
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market through the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as considered one of their 13 pitchers.
2:03
: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him taking part in? Platoon? vL or vR?
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays will probably be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies need to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I feel they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:04
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays will probably be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies need to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I feel they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:05
: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the staff tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the staff minimize the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?
2:06
: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract as we speak, then the staff has to conform to a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Beneath the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to and not using a listening to are absolutely assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined by way of listening to aren’t absolutely assured. We noticed this final 12 months with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and had been in a position to launch once they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as a substitute of the complete contract.
2:07
: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you suppose Christian Moore will get known as up? when do you suppose he ought to?
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how rapidly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he obtained damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, nevertheless it’s extra doubtless that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how rapidly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he obtained damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, nevertheless it’s extra doubtless that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you suppose an org offers him an enormous contract?
2:11
: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That stated, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be shocked if he went elsewhere.
2:11
: Marte get 1st probability at 3b for reds? Or are they buying?
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a number of instances … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered as we speak. Perhaps Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, what I feel. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless consider in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up massive numbers in AAA.
2:14
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a number of instances … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered as we speak. Perhaps Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, what I feel. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless consider in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up massive numbers in AAA.
2:15
: If I might solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who wouldn’t it be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?
2:15
: Until I’ve obtained vital purpose to consider in any other case, I at all times facet with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Actually doesn’t damage he had a extremely robust season, too.
Jason Martinez: I say you must go along with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
Jason Martinez: I say you must go along with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
: Crimson Sox bundle for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?
Jason Martinez: I feel they’ve pretty much as good of an opportunity as any staff on the market. Appears like they’re going to go massive in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:20
Jason Martinez: I feel they’ve pretty much as good of an opportunity as any staff on the market. Appears like they’re going to go massive in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:21
: The Reds stated they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent 12 months. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself trying?
2:22
: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we obtained earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s attainable they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s obtained to earn taking part in time elsewhere. One other risk is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.
2:22
: Proper now, we’ve virtually all of Steer’s PT in left, primarily based extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18
2:22
: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the decide with Skenes not beginning the 12 months there
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft decide will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply observe the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones compelled his method onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I feel Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to no less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft decide will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply observe the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones compelled his method onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I feel Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to no less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?
2:26
: Nootbaar’s at all times greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was truly higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this 12 months), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you need to name it, there’s no purpose to platoon him, neither is there an ideal platoon companion for him within the org proper now anyway.
2:26
: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?
Jason Martinez: I feel the Crimson Sox are going massive this offseason in free company however I ponder if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage could be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:29
Jason Martinez: I feel the Crimson Sox are going massive this offseason in free company however I ponder if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage could be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:30
: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins might effectively store Carlos Correa, although they’d need to eat some money.
2:31
: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?
2:32
: I’m on the Mets practice just because they will and presumably will provide probably the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of tens of millions to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I feel he clears $600M no downside.
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I feel Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups will probably be.
2:34
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I feel Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups will probably be.
2:34
: What sort of contract do y’all suppose Hyeseong Kim will get?
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I feel he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I feel will probably be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case quite a bit.
2:37
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I feel he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I feel will probably be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case quite a bit.
Oh sorry!!! I believed you had been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too rapidly.
2:39
: Yeah, I feel that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an decide out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I want a shortstop badly on opening day I’d quite be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I feel he does fairly much like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, perhaps rather less since he’s obtained quite a bit much less energy potential.
2:39
: Will the Phillies truly “shake up the roster” like they stated? In that case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?
2:40
: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even considered one of them with out consuming a bunch of cash could be fairly miraculous, I’d say. By way of gamers who would truly garner an fascinating return, I feel Bohm and Stott might be fascinating, perhaps even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.
2:41
: When you had been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 12 months timeframe?
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I’d love for them to re-create the Blake Road Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is protected there and their lineup will not be terrifying in any respect.
2:46
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I’d love for them to re-create the Blake Road Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is protected there and their lineup will not be terrifying in any respect.
In all seriousness, I do suppose they’re making an attempt to construct a staff round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final 12 months they usually do have a number of younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.
2:47
: Yeah, it looks as if they’re lastly focusing on fascinating strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as a substitute of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. A giant a part of constructing a staff like that’s figuring out who to offer massive contracts or extensions to, they usually’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so on.). The Tovar extension certain seems nice up to now, although.
2:48
: Do you suppose that if the Crimson Sox had been provide Seattle a bundle of Duran and one of many massive 4, most certainly Mayer, which may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling considered one of his pitchers?
2:49
: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t suppose that may fairly sway Dipoto to even take into account that a lot in any respect. when you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who might be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.
2:49
: How rapidly does Jordan Lawlar rise up and may he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?
Jason Martinez: I feel he’s the kind of prospect {that a} staff will make house for as soon as he reveals that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a situation the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position in some unspecified time in the future and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
Jason Martinez: I feel he’s the kind of prospect {that a} staff will make house for as soon as he reveals that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a situation the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position in some unspecified time in the future and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?
2:53
: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some powerful selections. He’s a superbly enough — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the chance of placing out on different choices and never with the ability to do a lot better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I might see this one going both method forward of the 8 EST deadline.
2:54
: Will Rodriguez and Bart cut up duties in 2025? What % of taking part in time for every.
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So will probably be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they will ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 cut up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:57
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So will probably be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they will ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 cut up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:58
: We simply obtained a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis positively is one. Might be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.
2:58
: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason up to now? They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none affect.
2:59
: That is mainly the Angels’ M.O. for latest offseasons, going for names over expertise, although no less than with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re probably not taking taking part in time away from somebody extra fascinating. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … fascinating … although.
2:59
: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5
Jason Martinez: I’ll go along with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being an enormous a part of the staff. However necessary to recollect, previous to his damage, that he’s such prospect that there was discuss shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I feel he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he might power himself into the image once more.
3:02
Jason Martinez: I’ll go along with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being an enormous a part of the staff. However necessary to recollect, previous to his damage, that he’s such prospect that there was discuss shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I feel he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he might power himself into the image once more.
3:04
: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such an extended season. Have a tricky time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we count on, although.
3:04
: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Completely happy Thanksgiving to those that have fun!
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for as we speak since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Usually, I feel 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
3:05
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for as we speak since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Usually, I feel 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
Thanks for becoming a member of us and bear in mind which you could at all times ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).
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