RosterResource Chat – 2/7/25

2:02

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the final RosterResource Dwell Chat earlier than soccer season ends and the main target turns in the direction of baseball. Nonetheless loads to debate with the large information of the week being Yoan Moncada signing with the Angels!

2:02

J: I for one don’t purchase the rumors of the Cubs being severe about Bregman, however have been he to go to the Cubs, how do they even reconfigure to let Shaw get some taking part in time too?

2:04

Jon Becker: I feel becoming Bregman in wouldn’t be notably simple, nevertheless it’s by no means a nasty factor to have 9 starting-caliber hitters for eight spots. Perhaps Shaw is in a gentle platoon with Busch at first and fills in at 2B/3B? Hoerner may also not be prepared to start out the yr, or may very well be traded.

2:04

Jordan: How do you envision the Pirates utilizing Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez? Strictly as C? Or will they attempt to get some versatility out of them and carry them plus Bart?

2:07

Jason Martinez: I feel they’ll take their time to find out whether or not Joey Bart’s breakout was actual whereas permitting Endy to be eased again into motion (doubtless in AAA). I feel they are going to ultimately get him time at different positions (1B, possibly 2B, possibly LF/RF) however can be so much to have him do this early on. With Henry Davis, I actually don’t know aside from he’d enhance his commerce worth if he rakes in AAA. Clearly, it might assist if he improved his protection at C or OF.

2:08

Skip: Have a keeper league and must resolve between Ryan Walker, Duran, and Helsley. They’re all ranked so shut who has a greater yr?

2:08

Jon Becker: Assuming your league values saves extremely, in all probability Helsley. Baldelli isn’t afraid to flip-flop Duran and Jax, and Doval might find yourself regaining the nearer job sooner or later to free Walker up as extra of a fireman.

2:09

PJ in JC: What’s your sense on Pavin Smith’s season in Arizona? A straight platoon with the newly resigned Grichuk?

2:12

Jason Martinez: That’s how I’ve it projected based mostly on how issues ended final season (Smith was actually good). However they may rapidly go in a distinct course if he doesn’t hit. They’re higher defensively with Alex Thomas in CF on most days and I feel they’ll have to regulate if Jordan Lawlar forces his means into the lineup. In these circumstances, I feel the DH spot will change each day.

2:12

Yark: Orioles appear to have loads of OF Kjerstad in a package deal for a Stop sort or might they drop Mullins to avoid wasting $ and add one thing earlier than he walks

2:13

Jon Becker: Neither of those would shock me, although I’d lean extra in the direction of “buying and selling Kjerstad for an affect pitcher” than “shifting Mullins simply to economize” based mostly on how they’ve operated this offseason; a yr of Mullins isn’t going to deliver again the affect starter that lots of people, myself included, assume they may use. Buying and selling Mountcastle or O’Hearn and rotating DH round extra + taking part in Kjerstad at first extra typically is one other believable option to get Kjerstad taking part in time.

2:13

Ice Cream Helmet: Lineup A: 9 hitters, every 100 wRC+ true talentLineup B: High-loaded with studs, backside 3 hitters all < 80 wRC+, lineup averages 100 wRC+ as an entire

I’ve all the time felt, all else being equal, Lineup A will carry out higher. However it’s simply my intestine telling me that horrible hitters with “simple outs” within the lineup do extra hurt irl. Is there any information to again me up?

2:17

Jason Martinez: I like to make use of the Padres for instance since they’re the group I watch probably the most. However, on this case, it really works as a result of their 2023 and 2024 lineups have been among the most excessive variations of themselves that I’ve ever seen. I wouldn’t describe them precisely as your Lineups A and B do, nevertheless it’s shut. The distinction was extra within the lack of steadiness between guys who’re extra all or nothing (Machado, Tatis) and guys who’re good at “shifting the road” and “taking knowledgeable at-bat”. Soto was in all probability the one man in 2023 who was good at shifting the road and the dearth of steadiness in all probability pushed the others (Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and so forth.) in the direction of the Machado/Tatis method. In 2024, they’d Profar, Merrill, Arraez, Solano, and Peralta all shifting the road and pushed the others (Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) to have extra high quality at-bats. Made an enormous distinction.

2:17

comish4lif: Is there anyone group with the cash and the necessity for Bregman at this level?

2:18

Jon Becker: Tigers are the cleanest match with probably the most long-term want for him (for instance, if the Crimson Sox received him I don’t know the place Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony consider as quickly as 2026), however evidently no matter provide they’ve on the market isn’t adequate. They’re actually lefty heavy and will use a center of the order RHH, for certain.

2:19

Dodgers Blue: Jason – I observed a large uptick in FGDC projections on ERAs over the previous few days. Was this a response to something particular?

2:21

Jason Martinez: We added ZIPS to the formulation this week. Beforehand, it was solely Steamer. ERA is a troublesome one to undertaking so I can think about completely different projection programs having a lot completely different numbers. Take a look at the participant pages and you’ll see all of them collectively.

2:21

Skip: Is there any attainable hitter on the commerce market the Royals can get to assist their OF deficiencies?

2:22

Jon Becker: I’m fairly certain we’re now within the third offseason of individuals wishcasting Taylor Ward onto the Pirates, however he’d be a very nice match for the Royals too. Unsure how attainable he’s however the Angels including Moncada additional clogs the offense and so they may need to preserve a spot open for Adell. Ward’s arguably their second-best hitter after Trout, although, and so they’re attempting to contend.

2:25

Jason Martinez: Earlier than I’m going to the subsequent query, I apologize for altering the view of the chat from high to backside. I believed that was for our view solely (apparently not) so we might see the latest questions on the high. Can’t repair now however will return to regular subsequent week.

2:25

Tampa query: Chandler Simpson is both a 60 or 70 hitter with 80 pace. He has no energy, however that’s nonetheless a useful participant. Might be see him in Tampa this yr? And is his future as a daily?

2:27

Jason Martinez: I actually hope so! We’ve seen gamers with that sort of pace (or shut) who simply didn’t have the on-base capability to take benefit. You’d assume Billy Hamilton would have worth as a 4th OF however apparently no group thinks he’s even adequate for a MiLB contract.

Within the case of Simpson, we’ll see how he does in AAA. It’s potential. Feels like they imagine in Deluca and he’ll get an extended look in CF. However not a lot else in Simpson’s means if he places up good numbers in AAA and Deluca doesn’t enhance a lot offensively.

2:28

Dave: Pitchers and catchers begin reporting in a few days, do you count on vital trades in throughout Spring Coaching, or are the Playing cards, Padres and Mariners doubtless pretty set for the season?

2:30

Jon Becker: It appears like (per MLB dot com) Arenado discuss has picked again up the final week or so, so I feel he’ll be moved by Opening Day. I additionally assume the Padres kind of must make a big sell-side commerce (Stop, King, or Arraez, in all probability… possibly Suarez?) to fill their wants elsewhere on the roster. Mariners really feel accomplished to me, they maxed out their funds and stored all their beginning pitchers, and Dipoto all the time stated shifting one in every of them was Plan Z.

2:30

Again up: Will Freddy Fermin see a gentle improve within the variety of video games he catches? Or, to place one other means, is Sal Perez the Royals first-baseman of the long run?

2:32

Jason Martinez: Feels like that’s been the plan for a number of causes. Must preserve Perez wholesome and preserve his bat within the lineup as a lot as potential. And Fermin is an excellent catcher and needs to be getting greater than 50% of begins. The largest problem in 2025 is that there aren’t many at-bats accessible at 1B with Pasquantino there and possibly much less DH alternatives except India or Massey can play an enough LF or 3B. Perez’s membership possibility for 2026 is simply $13.5MM so I’d count on the same state of affairs for at the least this season and subsequent.

2:33

Dodgers Blue: When you needed to identify the (3) least assured rotation projections you had for the time being, which groups would these be?

2:34

Jon Becker: White Sox are simply the most important mess proper now with solely Martín Pérez assured of a spot. After that… possibly the handful of groups we’ve got projected for six-man rotations which may not truly use them? Yankees to accommodate Stroman, Diamondbacks for Montgomery, Rays

2:36

Yark: Jason large day subsequent week. 60 day IL season lol. What’s the over/below

2:37

Jason Martinez: Vital day! Often not loads of 60-Day IL exercise instantly. Not too many gamers ready round to signal a MLB deal whereas groups are holding off till they will clear a spot by using the 60-Day IL. However I’d put the O/U at round 175 gamers on the IL for Opening Day.

2:37

Yark: Will Chapman get nearly all of save alternatives in 2025?

2:38

Jon Becker: I’d lean Hendriks, and Jason’s saves projections (22 for Hendriks, 12 for Chapman) presently mirror that. Chapman walks so many hitters and managers don’t love that within the ninth.

2:39

Wilson: Roster Useful resource predicts that Jacob Wilson will hit .287 this yr. Will he ever hit .300 or contend for a batting title?

2:43

Jason Martinez: Effectively, not RosterResource since I don’t do my very own projections anymore. However of the 6 projection programs which are housed on FanGraphs, Wilson’s batting common ranges from .269-.287. Appears cheap for that profile, which is a really distinctive one for a right-handed batter. However even for a man like Luis Arraez, it may be robust to seek out holes within the outfield when groups know you don’t have a lot energy or exit velocity. I’d have extra confidence in Wilson if he can slug a bit in his rookie season. Perhaps 10-15 HR and 30+ doubles. Unsure he has that in him.

2:43

Dodgers Blue: When the Yankees let Gleyber stroll with no trace of wanting him again, my assumption was they have been in play for Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim. With Kim off the market, and apparently zero curiosity in Bregman both, what are we doing right here????

2:45

Jon Becker: That is solely speculative, however possibly the Yankees aren’t thrilled with the concept of signing a 2017 Astro? In addition they solely have $16M to work with earlier than hitting the highest tax line, although I don’t know that they view that as a tough cap. However at this level… yeah, not many choices. Brendan Rodgers, Paul DeJong, and Jose Iglesias are the one everyday-ish infielders left in FA.

2:46

Justin: No precise query right here. Simply sharing a enjoyable truth. By Roster Useful resource projected beginning lineups, the Pirates presently have the third oldest in baseball. Nothing fallacious with that per se – in case you can play, you’ll be able to play. The Phillies and Dodgers show that – however appears not good spot for a rebuilding middling group!

2:47

Jason Martinez: That’s largely due to Cutch and Pham. And I actually do love what these two deliver to a lineup/clubhouse. When you’re gonna depend on largely unproven gamers, having these two guys main the best way is vital. General numbers gained’t be nice (.700-.725 OPS in 400-450 PA is probably going) however I feel high quality of at-bats, preparation, and so forth. will affect the remainder of the lineup.

2:48

Dodgers Blue: RE early query on Pavin Smith – what do the DBacks do if Adrian Del Castillo actually rakes in AAA? Do they expose Herrera to waiver wire with no choices left – or is another person moved out?

2:49

Jon Becker: Mike Hazen stated they view Del Castillo as a catcher so backup catcher is the one spot he’s within the working for out of camp, but when there’s an damage or he actually forces the difficulty with the bat they may completely name him as much as DH so much to maintain his bat within the lineup. Rene Pinto can be out of choices and I’d be shocked if the Diamondbacks risked dropping two good depth catchers in Pinto and Herrera straight out of camp.

2:50

Rose: I like Festa however there appears to be a disproportionate about of hype for him to win that fifth starter spot? Doesn’t Zebby Matthews have simply nearly as good, possibly higher, likelihood?

2:52

Jason Martinez: Festa has probably the most upside of all of the back-of-rotation candidates so, after all, there may be gonna be an expectation that he’s in there over somebody like Paddack, who has been harm and never very spectacular. However Paddack can be out of choices in order that they want to determine instantly if he can return to pre-injury type earlier than shifting on. And Festa can wait his flip in AAA and compete with Zebby to be “subsequent in line”. Rookie pitchers aren’t making 30+ begins as of late, in any case, so having one within the Opening Day rotation has turn into much less and fewer doubtless.

2:52

MTF: Does Pivetta discover a group quickly? Which groups match finest?

2:54

Jon Becker: Sure, however solely as a result of the season begins fairly quickly! Even regardless of including Severino and Springs the A’s nonetheless have the worst projected SP WAR, however I might be very shocked to see them signal one other high-AAV deal and quit one other draft decide. Perhaps the Angels (fifth-worst projection) or Orioles (eighth-worst)?

2:54

Chris: McCann looks as if the final viable possibility for Yanks backup C and RH platoon w Wells. I suppose nonetheless asking for an excessive amount of?

2:55

Jason Martinez: It’s both him, Yasmani Grandal, or Luke Maile at this level. Or possibly they actually love Alex Jackson. Can’t be too many choices for these guys so Yankees may simply be ready for the value to return down.

2:56

Phil: Why don’t extra groups piggyback younger beginning pitchers with the intention to management innings and get expertise? Looks as if the Tigers, for one, might simply piggyback Jobe and Mize.

2:58

Jon Becker: A pair causes for this, I feel. One is that the pitchers themselves wouldn’t be followers of this; starters need to begin and know precisely once they’re pitching. So even in case you say “you’re coming in for the fourth inning” that’s a variety of potential occasions. The second is that the roster limits — even with 13 pitchers as an alternative of 12, and naturally there was a time when it was 11, and so forth — make it laborious to make use of two pitchers for one rotation spot providing you with six innings each 5 video games.

2:58

Rose: % Probability Robert Garcia is the Rangers Nearer by the tip of the yr?

3:00

Jason Martinez: I’d guess it’s greater than anybody else on the present roster. I nonetheless assume there’s an opportunity they carry again David Robertson or signal somebody like Kenley Jansen. Perhaps Kendall Graveman is an possibility. He’s somebody who is sweet sufficient to shut as soon as he’s again to full well being. After all, there’s additionally an opportunity somebody who most individuals have by no means heard of is closing for them in August.

3:01

Dodgers Blue: Do you assume the Cubs really feel they’re set with their rotation? I used to be shocked they didn’t go after Flaherty or Scherzer. Do you assume they nonetheless have one thing up their sleeve?

3:01

Jon Becker: If they may discover a option to get Stop or King then I’m certain they’d, since these are clear upgrades over what they’ve received. Unsure they’d view Pivetta as sufficient of 1 (or one in any respect, plus they’d have to surrender a draft decide), and there’s definitely not any actual motive for them so as to add Quintana, Heaney, Gibson, Lynn, and so forth.

3:02

Misinformation: Now that the homeowners know deferrals can energize a seemingly giant group of people to affix them on a wage cap, do you assume they’ll attempt to exploit this to sway public opinion in opposition to the gamers?

3:05

Jason Martinez: Oh, they know very nicely that it’s one of many dumb issues that has “caught to the wall”. You don’t must be Johnnie Cochran to know how one can manipulate it in your favor as soon as you discover the factor (actual or not) that causes outrage. They are going to use it.

3:05

Holliday vs Kelenic: Is Jackson Holliday the subsequent Jarrod Kelenic, Dustin Ackley, or Jeff Clement? (Sorry for the Mariner’s references, however whenever you get burned as soon as…)

3:06

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly loads of alarming traits in Holliday’s first season, however he was so younger that I’m not tremendous involved simply but, particularly since he added the toe faucet for the final week of the season that appeared to essentially work for him. Massive, large yr for him this yr, although.

3:07

Bubba: Zips has Johnathan Rodriguez as a .797 ops hitter vs lhp. He destroyed lhp in AAA, a roughly 1.100 ops the final two years. He looks as if the proper alternative for David Fry however I don’t see him in your roster. As an alternative you could have two utility SS in Arias and Schneemann. Why?

3:09

Jason Martinez: I think about Jhonkensy to be in David Fry’s position (1B/OF, platoon vs LHP). Arias is out of choices and may stick. He’s gifted. Simply hasn’t put all of it collectively within the majors. I’ve Schneeman because the final man on the bench. Can play wherever. However none of that’s set in stone. Rodriguez didn’t hit within the majors final season (small pattern) however I don’t assume they’ve given up on him. He put up big numbers in AAA.

3:09

Reds Enjoyer: The place does Gavin Lux find yourself getting most of his taking part in time? It actually looks as if McLain ought to simply be a set-it-and-forget-it at 2B however mabye I’m fallacious!

3:09

Jon Becker: There’s loads of shifting elements on that group, and the place Lux and McLain play are in all probability the most important unanswered questions. McLain received some outfield time within the AFL and I assume he’ll be there once more in Spring Coaching. Perhaps Lux will get some 3B/OF time, too.

3:11

Dodgers Blue: You undertaking Chourio to guide off. Solely actual legit OBP threats within the Brewers lineup appear to be William and Yelich. May the Brew Crew profit from a legit lead off man not named Chourio to place him in a greater place to drive runs in for group?

3:13

Jason Martinez: It’s potential, though Chourio was over .360 OBP within the 2nd half and appeared snug in that position down the stretch. After all, he additionally proved that he may very well be a 2 or 3 hitter. Yelich and Mitchell may very well be leadoff choices. Frelick has that capability, though his BB% wasn’t good final season.

3:14

Misinformation: When you’re taking a flyer on some roster depth, what likelihood do assume DJ LeMahieu’s main malfunction final yr was largely well being and he rebounds? o/u 50-50 he performs about 100g, first rate D, approximates his profession .350 OBP?

3:15

Jon Becker: I don’t assume he may be as dangerous as he simply was, largely as a result of it’s actually actually laborious to be that dangerous two years in a row. However I don’t assume he’s coming wherever close to his profession norms once more now that he’ll be in his age-36 season. The depth chart projections of a 95 wRC+ even really feel a bit optimistic to me, but when he can do this he’ll be fairly helpful.

3:15

Jon Becker: That’ll do it for us immediately, have a terrific weekend and shall be again subsequent week! And with the questions exhibiting up in your display screen the best means!

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