The Rutgers College males’s basketball program noticed a 2023 that was bookended by a pair of five-star recruits agreeing to take their skills to New Brunswick, as Ace Bailey of McEachern (Powder Springs, Ga.) and Dylan Harper of Don Bosco Prep (New Brunswick, N.J.) introduced their school selections in January and December of that 12 months, respectively.
From that time ahead, there was a sure aura within the air because the Scarlet Knights’ trustworthy knew the beginning of one thing particular was on the horizon. There excessive expectations have been met with the varsity touchdown at No. 25 within the AP’s preseason ballot, marking simply the third time in program historical past that they’ve started a season ranked.
Sadly for all of these on the New Jersey campus, these excessive expectations have been nothing greater than smokes and mirrors. In what might go down because the worst season in class historical past when factoring in the place they thought they’d be versus the place they’re going to complete, each Bailey and Harper stay high three prospects for the 2025 NBA Draft.
So how on this planet did this all go so unhealthy?
Rutgers Will End Beneath .500 and Miss the Huge Dance
There’s simply no manner of sugarcoating the catastrophe that unfolded earlier than head coach Steve Pikiell. The top coach, like everybody else, had visions of dancing come March however as a substitute may have a depressing offseason starting sooner than anticipated. Not solely will Rutgers must reside with being one of many few preseason High 25 groups to overlook the event altogether, however this system must transfer ahead with out their clear-cut high two gamers.
With one sport to go, Rutgers sits at 14-16 total and 7-12 in Huge Ten play. It would additionally end 1-7 towards ranked groups. It’s a fairly unremarkable document for a workforce spearheaded by this sort of top-end expertise. The issue, nonetheless, is that the roster has a low expertise degree exterior two gamers, and when that’s the case, it’s almost unattainable to win these days of faculty basketball.
The protection has been pitiful for Rutgers, permitting the second most factors within the Huge Ten — it’s ranked 308th nationally in that class — together with the second most rebounds allowed. With no defensive or inside presence, this squad lacked any pushback to the opposition with far too many lapses. They’ve given up 80-plus factors in 9 of its final 13 video games, together with Tuesday’s 100-spot to No. 18 Purdue. By comparability, Duke hasn’t had a single opponent eclipse 78.
The protection is missing, and the 2 stars don’t have something to work with. With such a younger and inexperienced workforce with two extremes when it comes to ability degree on the roster, there was no cohesion offensively. That explains why Rutgers has the second fewest assists within the convention. There’s simply no circulation for this workforce exterior of letting Harper and Bailey do their factor.
Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey Stay High 3 Prospects
At this level within the school basketball season, it’s changing into more and more clear what the highest of the NBA Draft board will appear to be this June. Duke’s Cooper Flagg is much and away the consensus No. 1. Behind him are the 2 Rutgers phenoms. Regardless of their workforce’s poor efficiency, NBA brass are usually not going to shrink back from projecting these two as cornerstone items on the subsequent degree. It could sound humorous {that a} workforce who couldn’t make the event has this form of next-level expertise on their workforce, however Rutgers is proving to be an anomaly.
When this system entered this season with its large expectations, a whole lot of it needed to do with believing the lineup might be rounded out with a handful of transfers that accompanied Harper and Bailey. That concept fully fell flat, as Tyson Acuff, Jordan Derkack, P.J. Hayes IV, and Zach Martini mixed for 18 factors per sport. That degree of manufacturing was anticipated. Granted, it wasn’t all of their faults. Rutgers, in its totality, did not exhume a lot chemistry nor consistency, so it rapidly turned an uphill battle for them after their 4-0 begin. Harper and Bailey have mixed for 48.4% of Rutgers’ scoring.
Harper leads Rutgers in scoring (19.1) in addition to assists (4.0). Likewise, Bailey is true behind in factors (18.0) whereas main in rebounds (7.1). To spotlight simply how dramatic the dearth of depth is on this workforce, look no additional than the third main scorer beneath eight factors. For this reason Rutgers has confirmed to be a simple workforce to defend towards, even when it has a lot expertise in Harper and Bailey. Opponents have zero motive to worry anybody else with the ball of their fingers, so throwing the kitchen sink on the NBA hopefuls has grow to be a frequent transfer all season.
Rutgers Not Alone in Failing to Meet Expectations
Whereas Rutgers is the butt finish of jokes in the mean time, it isn’t the primary workforce, nor will or not it’s the final to fully miss following the preseason hype. Kentucky, lengthy identified for touchdown five-star recruits with NBA aspirations, has had a number of seasons meet related fates as Rutgers’. Their 2012-13 season had large hype earlier than lacking out on the tourney, although that had loads to do with Nerlens Noel (a future No. 6 choose) struggling a season-ending damage. The 2020-21 COVID-season for the Jayhawks was depressing, too. As was it for Duke. The early Nineties additionally noticed the Chris Jackson and Shaquille O’Neal-led LSU Tigers by no means get previous the second spherical for 4 consecutive years by which eat least a kind of generational skills was on the roster. Bailey and Harper is probably not Jackson and Shaq, however not making the tourney is hard.
All of these groups got here in with monster expectations and none have been brief on NBA expertise. Recency bias may have folks believing Rutgers’ collapse is the worst ever, however that may be an overreaction. What isn’t an overreaction, although, is that the 2024-25 season is the worst marketing campaign in class historical past. Not solely will Rutgers not be dancing and with out their finest two gamers a 12 months from now, the varsity may also threat dropping again into the dropping tradition that plagued them for a decade starting in 2006 after this small glimmer of hope got here and went. It’s not enjoyable to suppose again on that 10-year stretch of sub-.500 hoops, but it surely’s onerous to think about Rutgers ever touchdown one other pair of five-stars in the identical class. Rutgers final went to the NCAA Closing 4 in 1976 and it might not get one other shot like this in a very long time.
